13 October 2012

Battleground/National Report 10/12/2012 - T-minus 25 days


Friday, October 12th, 2012, was exactly 25 days before the General Election on November 6, 2012.

Here is the BATTLEGROUND REPORT from 25 days before the GE 2008, from 10/10/2008.

Complete polling results for all states for 2012 to-date are here as an EXCEL table for 10/12/2012 in GOOGLE DOCS. All polls are hyperlinked.

The BATTLEGROUND REPORTS started to run with the national numbers as well on 10/05. Here is the NATIONAL POLLING OUTLOOK thread, with links to every day going back to September 13, 2012. Want to see the numbers for a specific day? Go to that link.

The LEGEND for the following EXCEL table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the table:

A B C D E E G H I J K L M
State EV % of EC Polls 12.10.12 11.10.12 Shift 2008 2004 SWING (H-I) End polling 2008 Compare E – K Compare E – GE008
AZ 11 2,04% 0 / 5 7,20 7,20 0,00 8,48 10,47 1,99 4,43 2,77 -1,28
TN 3 0,56% 0 / 1 7,00 7,00 0,00 15,06 14,27 0,79 14,00 -7,00 -8,06
MO 10 1,86% 0 / 6 5,70 5,70 0,00 0,13 7,20 7,07 0,46 5,24 5,57
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
NC 15 2,79% 1 / 6 2,28 2,94 -0,66 0,33 12,43 12,76 0,62 2,90 2,61
FL 29 5,39% 2 / 8 1,18 0,49 0,69 2,81 5,01 7,82 1,79 2,97 3,99
CO 9 1,67% 1 / 8 0,59 0,53 0,06 8,95 4,67 13,62 6,62 7,21 9,54
NE-02 1 0,19% 0 / 1 0,00 0,00 0,00 1,21 21,69 20,48 4,00 -4,00 -1,21
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
USA 538 100,00% 6 / 18 0,50 0,44 0,06 7,26 2,46 9,72 7,54 -7,04 -6,76
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
VA 13 2,42% 1 / 10 0,70 1,27 -0,57 6,30 8,20 14,50 4,93 -4,23 -5,60
NV 6 1,12% 0 / 7 2,23 2,23 0,00 12,49 2,59 15,08 6,83 -4,60 -10,26
NH 4 0,74% 1 / 4 2,38 5,42 -3,04 9,61 1,37 8,24 10,43 -8,05 -7,23
OH 18 3,35% 1 / 14 2,68 2,68 0,00 4,58 2,11 6,69 2,30 0,38 -1,90
IA 6 1,12% 0 / 5 3,16 3,16 0,00 9,53 0,67 10,20 12,75 -9,59 -6,37
WI 10 1,86% 0 / 6 5,35 5,35 0,00 13,90 0,38 13,52 11,34 -5,99 -8,55
PA 20 3,72% 0 / 7 5,57 5,57 0,00 10,31 2,50 7,81 7,30 -1,73 -4,74
MI 16 2,97% 1 / 6 5,64 5,98 -0,34 16,44 3,42 13,02 14,44 -8,80 -10,80

There were 10 polls from 10/12: CO, FL, FL, ME, MI, NH, NC, OH, SD, VA - 10 polls

Since the last Electoral Landscape (No. 4), which was on 09/30, 123 new state polls have come in. Electoral Landscape No. 5 comes out on Saturday, 10/13, as promised.

None of these poll results reflect anything about the Vice Presidential Debate from 10/11. They were all taken before the debate.

Just in yesterday's Battleground Report, I mentioned the rise of hitherto unknown or obscure partisan pollsters. We had another - this time, extreme case of this today, in the non-battleground state of Maine. Details after the Battleground stuff.


In North Carolina, High Point University put out a poll showing Obama +1 over Romney, but the poll was conducted over too long a time span for my taste. This moved the average from Romney +2.94 to Romney +2.28 still within the battleground zone. ...... Margin shift: -0.66%, or +0.66 toward Obama. There is no doubt in my mind that North Carolina will remain competitive until election day, but the advantage is Romney's here. Actually, it has been most of the time.

In Florida, two separate polls came in, both showing Romney +4 at at/above the 50 mark. This moved the average from Romney +0.49 (10/11) to Romney +1.18. Margin shift: 0.69% toward Romney.

In Colorado, a Denver Post/ SUSA poll came in showing Romney +1. This is very close to the last Denver Post Poll from 09/14, which showed Obama +1. The state has tightened up considerably. The moves the average from Romney +0.53 (10/11) to Romney +0.59. Margin shift: 0.06% toward Romney.

In Virginia, a Rasmussen poll came in showing Romney +4 and over the 50 mark. This moved the average from Obama +1.27 (10/11) to Obama +0.70. Margin shift: -0.57, or 0.57 toward Romney.

In  New Hampshire, an ARG poll came in showing Romney +4 and at the 50 mark. With other polls falling out of the statistic, the average for New Hampshire took a real dive down to Obama 
+2.38 and is now deep within the Battlegrounds.

Ohio stayed steady. I predicted yesterday that the third of a three-Zogby poll segment would come in showing Romney ahead, but it did not. Zogby's results were identical to the day before, leaving the average at exactly Obama +2.68, deep within the battlegrounds. Margin shift: 0.00. It is becoming apparent that Obama is holding onto a narrow but very, very resilient lead in the Buckeye State.

In Michigan, On 10/11, I wrote: "Until debate no. 1, Obama was hitting or going over the 50 mark. Since then, he has not." That changed on 10/12, with the newest Rasmussen poll, showing Obama +7 and at 52%, but since another poll fell out of the statistic,  the current fell  from Obama +5.98 (10/11) to Obama +5.64.  Margin shift:  -0.34, or 0.34 toward Romney.


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In non-battleground polling, a very strange poll came in for Maine, produced by hyperpartisan Glen Bolger, for "NMB Research" and paid for by American Crossroads PAC, which is headed by Karl Rove. The poll claims that Obama is up by only +4 in Maine, but more importantly, it claims that Romney is now leading in CD-02 by +5. This is more than unlikely. Just two days before, the Pan Atlantic poll showed Obama +14 statewide and Obama +10 in ME-02. Every other poll before that back to May has shown Obama up in the state between +14 and +16. This means that there is a statewide margin difference in a very, very safe DEM state of 10, and a 15 point difference in ME-02. What Karl Rove really is trying to do is to scare Democrats into thinking that they need to sink money into a safe state. When President Obama has safely won this state on election night, including ME-02, by secure margins, I will remind all about this poll, this pollster and this PAC. Hit-and-run pollsters love to do this about 1 month to 3 weeks before the election but they don't right before. Why? Because they know their numbers are fudged and they have plausible deniability if they put out the results long enough before the election so they can claim, "well, gee, the numbers must have shifted back to the President, but golly, we just didn't have time to poll right before the election".... Uhuh...

In South Dakota, a new Nielson Brothers poll came in showing Romney +10.5, considerably less than the last Nielson poll (Romney +15.2, 09/06). No average is possible, for all other polling is too old now. Nielson is considered the "Gold Standard" for this state. There is no doubt that Mitt Romney is going to win the Mount Rushmore State and the margin is still above McCain's win in 2008, but still decidedly below Bush's crushing margins from 2004 and 2000. It is, however, within the 6-year margin average for this state.

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Nr. NATIONAL POLLING Date Sample MoE
Obama Romney Und/Oth Mar.

AVERAGE: N/A N/A N/A
46,56 47,06 6,39 0,50











RECENT:

















576 Angus Reid 12.10.12 906 RV +/-3.5
46 46 8 0
575 Ipsos/Reuters 12.10.12 1081 LV +/-3.4
45 46 9 -1
574 Investors Business Daily / TIPP 12.10.12 837 LV +/-3.5
46 46 8 0
573 Gallup (LV Screen) 12.10.12 3050 RV +/-2.0
47 49 4 -2
572 Gallup (RV Screen) 12.10.12 3214 RV +/-2.0
48 46 6 2
571 Rasmussen 12.10.12 1500 LV +/-3.0
47 48 5 -1
570 UPI / CVOTER 11.10.12 1110 LV +/-4.5
46 49 5 -3
569 Monmouth 11.10.12 1360 LV +/-2.7
46 47 7 -1
563 Fox News 10.10.12 1204 RV +/-3.0
45 46 9 -1
561 YouGov 10.10.12 1000 A +/-5.0
49 46 5 3
555 Investors Business Daily / TIPP 09.10.12 797 LV +/-3.5
45 47 8 -2
553 Zogby / Jzanalytics / Washington Times 09.10.12 800 LV +/-3.5
45 45 10 0
552 ARG 09.10.12 1200 LV +/-3.0
47 48 5 -1
551 PPP (KOS / SEIU) 09.10.12 1300 RV +/-2.7
47 49 4 -2
547 Pew Research 08.10.12 1112 LV +/-4.0
45 49 6 -4
544 Politico / GWU 08.10.12 1000 RV +/-3.1
49 48 3 1
540 Clarus (R) - post-debate (combined summary poll) 06.10.12 590 LV +/-4.3
46 47 7 -1
539 Clarus (R) - pre-debate (comined summary poll) 06.10.12 590 LV +/-4.3
49 45 6 4



NATIONAL POLLING


There were five pollsters for 10/12 who produced a sum total of five results. As of 10/09 (as forecast on the battleground report on 10/08) GALLUP has moved to a likely voter screen and is publishing both RV and LV results. Considering that GALLUPS LV screen was massively off in 2010 and relatively off in 2008, I will publish both results for no more than one week and then move over exclusively to the LV mode.

So, 6 of the 18 polls in the gene poll are from 10/12.

Here is the polling outlook for 2012-10-012: Romney +0.50 (+0.06 shift)

Here is the polling outlook for 2012-10-011: Romney +0.44 (+0.44 shift -or- -0.44 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-0100.00 (-0.81 shift -or- +0.81 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-009Obama +0.81% (-1.55 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-008Obama +2.36% (-0.62 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-007Obama +2.98% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-006Obama +2.98% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-005Obama +3.54% (-0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-004Obama +3.74% (-0.05 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-003Obama +3.79% (+0.22 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-002Obama +3.57% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-001
Obama +4.11% (-0.52 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-030
Obama +4.63% (-0.10 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-029Obama +4.73% (+0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-028
Obama +4.53% (-0.21 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-027Obama +4.74% (+0.36 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-026Obama +4.38% (+0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-025Obama +4.19% (+0.23 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-024Obama +3.96% (+0.21 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-023Obama +3.75% (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-022Obama +3.69% (+0.18 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-021Obama +3.87% (+0.49 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-020Obama +3.38% (-0.22 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-019Obama +3.60% (-0.40 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for
 2012-09-018: Obama +4.00% (+0.07 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-017Obama +3.93% (+0.12 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-016Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-015Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-014Obama +3.81% 

Net shift since 09/14Obama -4.31% / Romney +4.31%


We must now see if in the next days, Gov. Romney's lead will hold. This is, just as it was for Obama on 10/09, a statistical tie, but not an absolute tie.

October 12th, 2012 marked exactly 25 days until the General Election.

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