11 October 2012

Battleground/National Report 10/10/2012 - T-minus 27 days


Wednesday, October 10th, 2012, was exactly 27 days before the General Election on November 6, 2012. Less than month to go!

Here is the BATTLEGROUND REPORT from 27 days before the GE 2008, from 10/08/2008.

Complete polling results for all states for 2012 to-date are here as an EXCEL table for 10/10/2012 in GOOGLE DOCS. All polls are hyperlinked.

The BATTLEGROUND REPORTS started to run with the national numbers as well on 10/05. Here is the NATIONAL POLLING OUTLOOK thread, with links to every day going back to September 13, 2012. Want to see the numbers for a specific day? Go to that link.

The LEGEND for the following EXCEL table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the table:


A B C D E E G H I J K L M
State EV % of EC Polls 10.10.12 09.10.12 Shift 2008 2004 SWING (H-I) End polling 2008 Compare E – K Compare E – GE008
AZ 11 2,04% 0 / 5 7,20 7,20 0,00 8,48 10,47 1,99 4,43 2,77 -1,28
TN 3 0,56% 0 / 1 7,00 7,00 0,00 15,06 14,27 0,79 14,00 -7,00 -8,06
MO 10 1,86% 0 / 6 5,70 5,70 0,00 0,13 7,20 7,07 0,46 5,24 5,57
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
NC 15 2,79% 0 / 6 2,28 2,28 4,56 0,33 12,43 12,76 0,62 2,90 2,61
NE-02 1 0,19% 0 / 1 0,00 0,00 0,00 1,21 21,69 20,48 4,00 -4,00 -1,21
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
USA 538 100,00% 7 / 17 0,00 2,36 -2,36 7,26 2,46 9,72 7,54 -7,54 -7,26
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
CO 9 1,67% 0 / 7 0,29 0,29 0,00 8,95 4,67 13,62 6,62 -6,33 -8,66
FL 29 5,39% 2 / 6 0,60 2,33 -1,73 2,81 5,01 7,82 1,79 -1,19 -2,21
VA 13 2,42% 1 / 9 2,00 2,38 -0,38 6,30 8,20 14,50 4,93 -2,93 -4,30
NV 6 1,12% 2 / 6 3,10 3,40 -0,30 12,49 2,59 15,08 6,83 -3,73 -9,39
IA 6 1,12% 0 / 5 3,16 3,16 0,00 9,53 0,67 10,20 12,75 -9,59 -6,37
OH 18 3,35% 2 / 12 3,36 3,03 0,32 4,58 2,11 6,69 2,30 1,06 -1,22
NH 4 0,74% 1 / 6 5,42 6,50 -1,08 9,61 1,37 8,24 10,43 -5,01 -4,19
PA 20 3,72% 2 / 6 6,17 7,50 -1,33 10,31 2,50 7,81 7,30 -1,13 -4,14
WI 10 1,86% 1 / 4 6,28 8,65 -2,37 13,90 0,38 13,52 11,34 -5,06 -7,62
MI 16 2,97% 0 / 5 6,70 6,70 0,00 16,44 3,42 13,02 14,44 -7,74 -9,74















Notice that this Battleground table is smaller. I am still tracking battleground numbers for IN, GA, NE, MT, OR, NM and MN, but since they all have -and have maintained- an average of more than +8 for a candidate, I have blended them out of the table. However, if you go to the link for the EXCEL table above, you can still see them all.

16 polls came in on 10/10/12: CA, FL (2), ME, MT (2), NV (2), NH, OH (2), PA (2), RI, VA, WI  

10/10/2012 was a good day for multiple polling for key battleground states: FL, NV and OH. But the polling in all of these states - excepting OH, showed continued movement for Governor Romney, as also evidenced by the absolute statistical tie of  +0.00 in the national polling.

10/10/2012 was also a day when a great many polls fell out of the 2-week statistical window. Again, if you go to the EXCEL table, for any state where you see a light-grey shaded area under a yellow shaded area, and sometimes, in the case of repeater polls, within the yellow shaded area, those are polls that just fell out of the statistic as soon as a new poll came in. If you are in doubt, look at the release date of the latest poll and count back 14 days. Anything beyond that is now just statistical history.

Florida is a good example of this: there were two new polls of the Sunshine State, both for President Obama (+4 and +1), but since older polls with much higher margins fell out of the statistics, Florida now stands at Obama +0.60. It is, once again, a tossup. No surprise there. I have written many times that Florida is likely to slip in and out of the statistical tossup zone often. One important detail about Florida: it has been two weeks since any candidate has hit 50%.

With the new NBC / WSJ poll of Virginia, showing Romney +1, the Old Dominion now stands at Obama +2.00, just at the tossup zone. On a map, I would paint this state an absolute tossup. Similarly to Florida, Obama has not hit the 50% mark in VA for the last 3 weeks. Romney has never made the 50% mark in this state.

Nevada just received two more polling results, both for the President: PPP and SUSA, Obama +4 and Obama +1. But just as was the case with Florida and Virginia, the President's margin still shrunk ever so slightly to Obama +3.10 due to older polls falling out of the statistic. In the PPP poll, Obama is still over the 50 mark. Romney has never gotten to the 50 mark in Nevada.

I just want to remind that the demographic of NV may prove it to be the 2nd or 3rd closest state in the end-polling before election night, but with a very large Mormon population in that State that I am certain will vote for Governor Romney by a massive margin, and at the same time, a huge Hispanic population - which is even larger than the Mormon population and likely to go for the President by a massive margin - a demographic group that has been falsely calculated in polling both in 2008 and 2010, this means to me that in the case of a dead-on tie come shortly before election day, it is probably still: advantage Obama.

Ohio received two polls, both for the President, and it is the only state on the Battleground List where Obama's margin improved slightly, from Obama +3.03 on 10/09 to Obama +3.36 on 10/10. This is important data, especially when THE critical battleground state is moving against the overall statistic. The Zogby poll of Ohio shows exactly the same margin (Obama +4) as the CNN poll from 10/09, but the toplines are considerably lower for both candidates. The NBC poll shows a healthy Obama +5, and for the second time in two days, Obama's topline hits 51%. In fact, in 13 of the 55 polls of the Buckeye State so far, Obama has hit or gone over the 50 mark. Romney has never made it to the 50 mark in this state yet. Even the most optimistic of polling from very right-wing oriented pollsters has been unable to get Romney to the 50 mark. In fact, out of 55 polls, Romney has hit the 49 mark only once, and the 48 mark 3 times.However, in  25 of 55 polls, Romney has been at 44 or less, very consistently. Overall, this race, when viewed in the context of the entire year, does not look nearly as close as the race was in 2004.


Why have I started to mention the 50% mark all of a sudden? 

Well, in the months before the conventions and the first debate, there are generally many more undecided voters and this usually means that in the battleground states, the candidates fight it out at between the 46 to 48 mark. However, after the debates, one candidate in the battlegrounds usually starts hitting the 50 mark more often and when he goes over the 50 mark often enough, even if it is a close race, the statistical probability of him winning that particular state shoots sky high, for once you are over and stay over 50, then the race, for all intents and purposes - even if it is close - is pretty much over. This same principle applies to North Carolina, which didn't receive polling results on 10/10, but Romney hit the 50 mark there on 10/09 and also twice in September and once in July. But Obama has never hit the 50 mark in NC, not once.

New Hampshire received a poll from Rasmussen showing an absolute tie, 48/48. This is the first tie recorded in this state. However, that is actually an improvement for Obama: the last Rasmussen of the state, from 09/19, showed Romney +3, the only poll since May to show a Romney lead in the Granite State. This moves the margin average to Obama +5.42, still technically outside the battleground zone.

A Philadelphia Enquirer Poll for Pennsylvania came in, showing Obama +8 and once again at the 50 mark. However, since polls with considerably larger margins just fell out of the poll, the overal margin average has shrunk to Obama +6.17 in the Keystone State. Remembering that CONTEXT IS EVERYTHING: Obama's end-polling from 2008 was +7.81. He is not far from that now. Please notice that President Obama outperformed his end-polling average in this state in 2008.

Wisconsin received one poll, from Rasmussen, showing Obama +2. Two important details about the poll: it shows almost no erosion for the President since the last Rasmussen, from 09/20, which had the race at Obama +3. What is different is that this time, Obama is at the 51% mark. Obama has now hit or gone over the 50 mark in 6 of the last 11 polls of Wisconsin. However, with a WAA poll having left the statistic, the margin in the Badger State has shrunk to Obama +6.28, which is still considerably under his end-polling margin for 2008 (Obama +11.34) and ever farther under his 2008 win, but it is still a healthy margin and still larger than the margin with which John McCain won Georgia (McCain +5.20) and is almost the same margin with which Obama won Virginia in that year (Obama +6.30). With the one and only VICE-PRESIDENTIAL debate coming on 10/11 between Joe Biden and Paul Ryan, I expect a slew of polling from this state and it will certainly be interesting to see where the margin goes. Please notice that President Obama outperformed his end-polling average in this state in 2008.

Montana, which is not on the shortened form of the table for 10/10, got two polls in one day (Romney +11, +14), making for a new average of Romney +9.67. Just as the GOP is not investing in New Mexico at all this time around, the Democratic Party is not investing in Montana on the presidential level, but the Senatorial race looks like it could become a major marquee race this year, with John Tester holding a razor thin lead.

----------------------------------------------------------------

In non-battleground polling, Maine received another poll, from the Pan Atlantic SMS Group, showing Obama +14, pretty much where all the other polls have been. What is interesting about this poll is that, like 3 others, it also shows the numbers per Congressional District, and in this poll, Obama is doing considerably better in ME-02 than he has done before. According to this poll, Obama is winning ME-02 by +10. In the other three polls, he was winning ME-02 by +7, +7 and +5.  Were Maine to become competitive, then surely the GOP would love to make a play for ME-02, since ME, like NE, does elector-splitting. This is yet another piece of evidence that even as the race seems to tighten nationally, the fronts are hardening in the core states.

Opposing evidence, however, just came in for California: SUSA, a very reputable and neutral pollster, just posted results from it's latest CA poll, showing Obama +14. For a state where he won by a crushing +24.03% in 2008 and the last SUSA poll showed Obama +22, that is a terrible margin by contrast. That being said, all other polls have fallen out of the statistics, they are all older than two weeks old, and this is just one poll. PPIC, Field, Pepperdine and USC all tend to post results mid-monthly, so let's wait and see what the total mix looks like. And a +14 is not his lowest polling result this year: he was at +11 in two polls earlier in the year. Now, California is a rock-solid Obama state, no doubt about it, but a margin reduced by 10 points would mean about 1.2 million less votes on his national PV margin. Just yesterday, in the first BLUE STATE REPORT, I mentioned how important it is to watch the margins in core states as well.

A Brown University Poll came in for Rhode Island, confirming what we already know: Obama will win here by a massive landslide. The poll shows Obama +25.9 and comes just 8 days after the first poll of RI for 2012, which showed Obama +24.2, making an average for the state of Obama +25.05. The President won here by +27.81% in 2008, but his end polling average in that year was Obama +18.10. I devoted some time to Rhode Island in the newly released first BLUE STATE REPORT, and this new poll just confirms what I wrote just yesterday.


In the Battleground Report for 10/09, I wrote:

"All in all, in spite of two polls from Ohio showing Obama still ahead, it was a brutal day in polling for the President and a good day in polling for Governor Romney."

Today, I could write the opposite. 10/10 was a far better day in state polling for the President and a not-so-good day for Governor Romney.

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In the national polling for 10/09, I wrote the following at the end:

"So, 9 of the 16 polls in the gene poll are from 10/09, which means that are going to be there for a while. The average is a scant Obama +0.81, which will probably become an absolute tie within the next two days as the NPR poll from 10/03 will fall out of the statistic on 10/10. Most likely, Governor Romney will take the lead in the average on 10/11."

The first half of this prediction came true on 10/10, and I mean, down to 0.00:


Nr. NATIONAL POLLING Date Sample MoE
Obama Romney Und/Oth Mar.

AVERAGE: N/A N/A N/A
46,88 46,88 6,24 0,00











RECENT:

















563 Fox News 10.10.12 1204 RV +/-3.0
45 46 9 -1
562 Ipsos/Reuters 10.10.12 1027 LV +/-3.5
44 45 11 -1
561 YouGov 10.10.12 1000 A +/-5.0
49 46 5 3
560 Investors Business Daily / TIPP 10.10.12 757 LV +/-3.5
44 49 7 -5
559 Gallup (LV Screen) 10.10.12 3050 RV +/-2.0
48 48 4 0
558 Gallup (RV Screen) 10.10.12 3214 RV +/-2.0
50 45 5 5
557 Rasmussen 10.10.12 1500 LV +/-3.0
47 48 5 -1
556 UPI / CVOTER 09.10.12 1049 LV +/-4.5
48 47 5 1
555 Investors Business Daily / TIPP 09.10.12 797 LV +/-3.5
45 47 8 -2
553 Zogby / Jzanalytics / Washington Times 09.10.12 800 LV +/-3.5
45 45 10 0
552 ARG 09.10.12 1200 LV +/-3.0
47 48 5 -1
551 PPP (KOS / SEIU) 09.10.12 1300 RV +/-2.7
47 49 4 -2
547 Pew Research 08.10.12 1112 LV +/-4.0
45 49 6 -4
544 Politico / GWU 08.10.12 1000 RV +/-3.1
49 48 3 1
540 Clarus (R) - post-debate (combined summary poll) 06.10.12 590 LV +/-4.3
46 47 7 -1
539 Clarus (R) - pre-debate (comined summary poll) 06.10.12 590 LV +/-4.3
49 45 6 4
532 McLaughlin (R ) /Conservative.org 04.10.12 1000 LV +/-3.1
49 45 6 4



There were six pollsters for 10/10 who produced a sum total of seven results. As of 10/09 (as forecast on the battleground report on 10/08) GALLUP has moved to a likely voter screen and is publishing both RV and LV results. Considering that GALLUPS LV screen was massively off in 2010 and relatively off in 2008, I will publish both results for a couple of days and then move over exclusively to the LV mode.

So, 7 of the 17 polls in the gene poll are from 10/10, which means that are going to be there for a while. Right now, it is an absolute statistical tie: Obama 46.88 / Romney 46.88 / Margin: 0.00.

Here is the polling outlook for 2012-10-010: 0.00 (-0.81 shift -or- +0.81 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-009Obama +0.81% (-1.55 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-008Obama +2.36% (-0.62 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-007Obama +2.98% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-006Obama +2.98% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-005Obama +3.54% (-0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-004Obama +3.74% (-0.05 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-003Obama +3.79% (+0.22 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-002Obama +3.57% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-001
Obama +4.11% (-0.52 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-030
Obama +4.63% (-0.10 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-029Obama +4.73% (+0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-028
Obama +4.53% (-0.21 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-027Obama +4.74% (+0.36 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-026Obama +4.38% (+0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-025Obama +4.19% (+0.23 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-024Obama +3.96% (+0.21 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-023Obama +3.75% (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-022Obama +3.69% (+0.18 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-021Obama +3.87% (+0.49 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-020Obama +3.38% (-0.22 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-019Obama +3.60% (-0.40 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for
 2012-09-018: Obama +4.00% (+0.07 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-017Obama +3.93% (+0.12 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-016Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-015Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-014Obama +3.81% 

Net shift since 09/14Obama -3.81%


This number (Average shift since 09/14Obama -3.81) shows now appreciable drop in margin for the President following the debate on 10/03. It is now a real dogfight.

October 10th, 2012 marked exactly 27 days until the General Election.








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