10 October 2012

Battleground/National Report 10/09/2012 - T-minus 28 days


Tuesday, October 9th, 2012, was exactly 28 days before the General Election on November 6, 2012. One month to go!

Here is the BATTLEGROUND REPORT from 28 days before the GE 2008, from 10/07/2008.

Complete polling results for all states for 2012 to-date are here as an EXCEL table for 10/09/2012 in GOOGLE DOCS. All polls are hyperlinked.

The BATTLEGROUND REPORTS started to run with the national numbers a well on 10/05. Here is the NATIONAL POLLING OUTLOOK thread, with links to every day going back to September 13, 2012. Want to see the numbers for a specific day? Go to that link.

The LEGEND for the following EXCEL table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the table:


A B C D E E G H I J K L M
State EV % of EC Polls 09.10.12 08.10.12 Shift 2008 2004 SWING (H-I) End polling 2008 Compare E – K Compare E – GE008
IN 11 2,04% 1 / 2 14,00 8,00 6,00 -1,03 20,68 21,71 1,18 12,82 15,03
GA 16 2,97% 0 / 2 13,50 13,50 0,00 5,20 16,60 11,40 3,85 9,65 8,30
NE 5 0,93% 0 / 10 11,00 11,00 0,00 14,93 33,22 18,29 19,00 -8,00 -3,93
AZ 11 2,04% 0 / 5 7,20 7,20 0,00 8,48 10,47 1,99 4,43 2,77 -1,28
TN 3 0,56% 0 / 1 7,00 7,00 0,00 15,06 14,27 0,79 14,00 -7,00 -8,06
MT 3 0,56% 0 / 2 6,50 6,50 0,00 2,38 20,50 18,12 1,64 4,86 4,12
MO 10 1,86% 0 / 6 5,70 5,70 0,00 0,13 7,20 7,07 0,46 5,24 5,57
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
NC 15 2,79% 1 / 6 2,28 0,44 2,72 0,33 12,43 12,76 0,62 2,90 2,61
NE-02 1 0,19% 0 / 1 0,00 0,00 0,00 1,21 21,69 20,48 4,00 -4,00 -1,21
CO 9 1,67% 1 / 7 0,29 1,00 -0,71 8,95 4,67 13,62 6,62 -6,33 -8,66
FL 29 5,39% 0 / 11 2,33 2,33 0,00 2,81 5,01 7,82 1,79 0,54 -0,48
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
USA 538 100,00% 5 / 14 2,36 2,36 0,00 7,26 2,46 9,72 7,54 -5,18 -4,90
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
VA 13 2,42% 0 / 7 2,38 2,38 0,00 6,30 8,20 14,50 4,93 -2,55 -3,92
OH 18 3,35% 3 / 10 3,03 4,52 -1,49 4,58 2,11 6,69 2,30 0,73 -1,55
IA 6 1,12% 0 / 5 3,16 3,16 0,00 9,53 0,67 10,20 12,75 -9,59 -6,37
NV 6 1,12% 1 / 4 3,40 4,93 -1,53 12,49 2,59 15,08 6,83 -3,43 -9,09
NH 4 0,74% 1 / 5 6,50 6,50 0,00 9,61 1,37 8,24 10,43 -3,93 -3,11
MI 16 2,97% 0 / 5 6,70 6,27 0,43 16,44 3,42 13,02 14,44 -7,74 -9,74
PA 20 3,72% 1 / 6 7,50 8,40 -0,90 10,31 2,50 7,81 11,34 -3,84 -2,81
WI 10 1,86% 0 / 4 8,65 8,65 0,00 13,90 0,38 13,52 11,34 -2,69 -5,25
OR 7 1,30% 0 / 1 9,00 9,00 0,00 16,35 4,16 12,19 15,57 -6,57 -7,35
NM 5 0,93% 0 / 5 9,86 9,86 0,00 15,13 0,79 15,92 9,26 0,60 -5,27
MN 10 1,86% 1 / 1 10,00 8,00 2,00 10,24 3,48 6,76 11,34 -1,34 -0,24

There were a total of 13 polls that came in on 10/09: CO, IN, LA, MA (2), MN, NV, NH, NC, OH, OH (2), PA.

10 of those were for battleground states. 9 of those polls show definite motion for Governor Romney, regardless whether he is winning the poll or not. A number of those polls are from very partisan pollsters, but some, like SUSA, also put out polls that have been right on the mark in the past.

OHIO saw the most polling of the day:


Nr. OHIO Date Sample MoE Obama Romney Und Mar.

AVERAGE N/A N/A N/A 48,73 45,70 5,57 3,03


















53 SUSA 09.10.12 808 LV +/-3.5 45 44 11 1
52 CNN/ORC 09.10.12 722 LV +/-3.5 51 47 2 4
51 ARG 09.10.12 600 LV +/-4.0 47 48 5 -1
50 Wenzel (R) / Citizens United 08.10.12 1072 LV +/-2.96 47,3 48 4,7 -0,7
49 Rasmussen 05.10.12 500 LV +/-4.5 50 49 1 1
48 WAA (R) 05.10.12 1200 LV +/-3.0 46 47 7 -1
47 NBC / WSJ / Marist 03.10.12 931 LV +/-3.2 51 43 6 8
46 PPP (D) 30.09.12 897 LV +/-3.3 49 45 6 4
45 Columbus Dispatch 30.09.12 1662 LV +/-2.2 51 42 7 9
44 PPP (D) / NRDC 28.09.12 2890 LV +/-1.8 50 44 6 6
43 Quinnipiac / CBS /NYT 26.09.12 1162 LV +/-3.0 53 43 4 10
42 Gravis (R) 25.09.12 549 LV +/-4.3 45,20 44,30 2,30 0,90

The Quinnipiac poll from 09/26 (Obama +10) - shaded in light grey- fell out of the statistic from the day before,  and ARG (Romney +1) CNN (Obama +4) and SUSA (Obama +1) came into the statistic. With ten polls in the mix, Ohio has the largest, richest and most diverse polling gene pool of any state in the Union right now. In 2008, CNN was absolutely on the mark about Obama's winning margin and the toplines, btw. You can see it at the link. This moves Obama's average to +3.03 in the Buckeye state, deep within the battleground zone, but not in the tossups.

As of 21 days before the election, I move to 1 week-time windows for polls in the most competitive of states, just as I did in 2008. Let's take a sneek peek at what Ohio would look like were I to change the polling window today:

Nr. OHIO Date Sample MoE Obama Romney Und Mar.

AVERAGE N/A N/A N/A 47,72 47,17 5,12 0,55


















53 SUSA 09.10.12 808 LV +/-3.5 45 44 11 1
52 CNN/ORC 09.10.12 722 LV +/-3.5 51 47 2 4
51 ARG 09.10.12 600 LV +/-4.0 47 48 5 -1
50 Wenzel (R) / Citizens United 08.10.12 1072 LV +/-2.96 47,3 48 4,7 -0,7
49 Rasmussen 05.10.12 500 LV +/-4.5 50 49 1 1
48 WAA (R) 05.10.12 1200 LV +/-3.0 46 47 7 -1
47 NBC / WSJ / Marist 03.10.12 931 LV +/-3.2 51 43 6 8
46 PPP (D) 30.09.12 897 LV +/-3.3 49 45 6 4
45 Columbus Dispatch 30.09.12 1662 LV +/-2.2 51 42 7 9
44 PPP (D) / NRDC 28.09.12 2890 LV +/-1.8 50 44 6 6
43 Quinnipiac / CBS /NYT 26.09.12 1162 LV +/-3.0 53 43 4 10
42 Gravis (R) 25.09.12 549 LV +/-4.3 45,20 44,30 2,30 0,90

Indeed, reducing the time-window to 1 week makes for an absolute tossup in Ohio: Obama +0.55. And still, I find the Rasmussen poll from 10/05 the most telling of all these polls- the facts of which were discussed HERE.

NORTH CAROLINA was the other big news of the day: Gravis (R) put out a poll showing a very strong Romney +8.7 lead in the Tarheel State. Now, we have seen other partisan pollsters post these kinds of lead. Civitas (R) showed Romney +10 just one month ago. But the margin has now moved to Romney +2.28, which is still deep within the battlegrounds but outside of the tossups. That is a 2.72 point shift for the Governor over the last polling average for this state.

In COLORADO, ARG released a poll showing Romney +4. This moves Colorado to absolute tossup: Obama +0.44. Of the 7 polls currently in the gene poll, 4 show for Obama, 3 show for Romney. That is a decided change in polling of this state all year long. It is this highest number of polls to come out pro-Romney in such a short time-span.

Polls in PA, NV and IN all showed polling average movement toward Governor Romney:

In PENNSYLVANIA, a Siena poll showed Obama up by +3 over Romney, but with 15% undecideds, which is statistically not likely at this point in the game. Siena is the same pollster who put out a New York (!) poll in 2008 showing Obama only 4 points in front of McCain, btw... Even so, the average in PA is Obama +7.50 and surely more polling from the Keystone State will show more stabile margins for the President than this poll or the Susquehanna from 10/08.

In NEVADA, Rasmussen's poll from 10/09 shows a dead heat, 46 / 46. This moved the statistic for NV down to Obama +3.40. Notice how, once again, the OH and NV margins are very close to each other.

In INDIANA, a McLaughlin and Associates (R) poll, conducted for the Mourdock campaign, to note, shows Romney +16 in the Hoosier State. This moves Indiana's margin to Romney +14.00. If this continues, then in 2 weeks, I will be removing IN and probably GA and TN from the Battleground Report list. 

In NEW HAMPSHIRE, a new UNC poll shows Obama +6 over Romney. This is erosion over the margin indicated by this same pollster from just 8 days before, but it is not budge the NH statistic at all, which remains at Obama +6.50.

But in MINNESOTA, the PPP (D) poll that came out on 10/09 shows an improved margin for the President: Obama +10, which is right in line with his win in 2008. Since all the other MN polling is more than 2 weeks old, a margin average is not possible right now. As is the case with IN, if this continues, then I will be removing MN and probably NM from the Battleground list within 2 weeks.

All in all, in spite of two polls from Ohio showing Obama still ahead, it was a brutal day in polling for the President and a good day in polling for Governor Romney.

I suspect that a slew of polls for Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Iowa and Florida will come in in the days following the Biden / Ryan Vice-Presidential debate on 10/11/2012. I expect that extremely partisan Republican pollsters will do flash polls if Ryan comes out ahead in the debate, but will be quiet if Biden comes out ahead.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------


Nr. NATIONAL POLLING Date Sample MoE
Obama Romney Und/Oth Mar.

AVERAGE: N/A N/A N/A
47,44 46,63 5,94 0,81











RECENT:







556 UPI / CVOTER 09.10.12 1049 LV +/-4.5
48 47 5 1
555 Investors Business Daily / TIPP 09.10.12 797 LV +/-3.5
45 47 8 -2
554 Ipsos/Reuters 09.10.12 1157 LV +/-3.3
45 45 10 0
553 Zogby / Jzanalytics / Washington Times 09.10.12 800 LV +/-3.5
45 45 10 0
552 ARG 09.10.12 1200 LV +/-3.0
47 48 5 -1
551 PPP (KOS / SEIU) 09.10.12 1300 RV +/-2.7
47 49 4 -2
551 Gallup (RV Screen) 09.10.12 3214 RV +/-2.0
49 46 5 3
550 Gallup (first time results with LV screen) 09.10.12 3050 RV +/-2.0
47 49 4 -2
549 Rasmussen 09.10.12 1500 LV +/-3.0
48 48 4 0
547 Pew Research 08.10.12 1112 LV +/-4.0
45 49 6 -4
544 Politico / GWU 08.10.12 1000 RV +/-3.1
49 48 3 1
540 Clarus (R) - post-debate (combined summary poll) 06.10.12 590 LV +/-4.3
46 47 7 -1
539 Clarus (R) - pre-debate (comined summary poll) 06.10.12 590 LV +/-4.3
49 45 6 4
532 McLaughlin (R ) /Conservative.org 04.10.12 1000 LV +/-3.1
49 45 6 4
530 YouGov 04.10.12 1000 A +/-4.7
49 44 7 5
530 NPR / DemCorps (D) / Resurgent Republic (R) 03.10.12 800 LV +/-3.5
51 44 5 7

There were eight pollsters for 10/09 who produced a sum total of 9 results. As of 10/09 (as forecast on the battleground report on 10/08) GALLUP has moved to a likely voter screen and is publishing both RV and LV results. Considering that GALLUPS LV screen was massively off in 2010 and relatively off in 2008, I will publish both results for a couple of days and then move over exclusively to the LV mode.

So, 9 of the 16 polls in the gene poll are from 10/09, which means that are going to be there for a while. The average is a scant Obama +0.81, which will probably become an absolute tie within the next two days as the NPR poll from 10/03 will fall out of the statistic on 10/10. Most likely, Governor Romney will take the lead in the average on 10/11. I can't help but wonder if all those Republicans who have been screaming "skewed polls, skewed polls!!" are going to continue to scream now that national polling is heading for Gov. Romney.


Here is the polling outlook for 2012-10-008: Obama +0.81% (-1.55 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-008Obama +2.36% (-0.62 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-007Obama +2.98% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-006Obama +2.98% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-005Obama +3.54% (-0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-004Obama +3.74% (-0.05 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-003Obama +3.79% (+0.22 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-002Obama +3.57% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-001
Obama +4.11% (-0.52 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-030
Obama +4.63% (-0.10 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-029Obama +4.73% (+0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-028
Obama +4.53% (-0.21 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-027Obama +4.74% (+0.36 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-026Obama +4.38% (+0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-025Obama +4.19% (+0.23 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-024Obama +3.96% (+0.21 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-023Obama +3.75% (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-022Obama +3.69% (+0.18 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-021Obama +3.87% (+0.49 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-020Obama +3.38% (-0.22 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-019Obama +3.60% (-0.40 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for
 2012-09-018: Obama +4.00% (+0.07 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-017Obama +3.93% (+0.12 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-016Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-015Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-014Obama +3.81% 

Net shift since 09/14Obama -3.00%


This number (Average shift since 09/14Obama -3.00) shows now appreciable drop in margin for the President following the debate on 10/03. Until that point in time, the numbers were extremely stabile.

October 9th, 2012 marked exactly 28 days until the General Election.






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