09 October 2012

Battleground/National Report 10/08/2012 - T-minus 29 days


Monday, October 8, 2012, was exactly 29 days before the General Election on November 6, 2012.

Here is the BATTLEGROUND REPORT from 29 days before the GE 2008, from 10/06/2008.

Complete polling results for all states for 2012 to-date are here as an EXCEL table for 10/08/2012 in GOOGLE DOCS. All polls are hyperlinked.

The BATTLEGROUND REPORTS started to run with the national numbers a well on 10/05. Here is the NATIONAL POLLING OUTLOOK thread, with links to every day going back to September 13, 2012. Want to see the numbers for a specific day? Go to that link.

The LEGEND for the following EXCEL table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the table:


A B C D E E G H I J K L M
State EV % of EC Polls 08.10.12 07.10.12 Shift 2008 2004 SWING (H-I) End polling 2008 Compare E – K Compare E – GE008
GA 16 2,97% 0 / 2 13,50 13,50 0,00 5,20 16,60 11,40 3,85 9,65 8,30
NE 5 0,93% 0 / 10 11,00 11,00 0,00 14,93 33,22 18,29 19,00 -8,00 -3,93
IN 11 2,04% 0 / 3 8,00 8,00 0,00 -1,03 20,68 21,71 1,18 6,82 9,03
AZ 11 2,04% 0 / 5 7,20 7,20 0,00 8,48 10,47 1,99 4,43 2,77 -1,28
TN 3 0,56% 0 / 1 7,00 7,00 0,00 15,06 14,27 0,79 14,00 -7,00 -8,06
MT 3 0,56% 0 / 2 6,50 6,50 0,00 2,38 20,50 18,12 1,64 4,86 4,12
MO 10 1,86% 0 / 6 5,70 5,70 0,00 0,13 7,20 7,07 0,46 5,24 5,57
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
NE-02 1 0,19% 0 / 1 0,00 0,00 0,00 1,21 21,69 20,48 4,00 -4,00 -1,21
NC 15 2,79% 0 / 9 0,44 0,44 0,00 0,33 12,43 12,76 0,62 -0,18 0,11
CO 9 1,67% 1 / 6 1,00 1,00 0,00 8,95 4,67 13,62 6,62 -5,62 -7,95
FL 29 5,39% 0 / 11 2,33 2,33 0,00 2,81 5,01 7,82 1,79 0,54 -0,48
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
USA 538 100,00% 5 / 14 2,36 2,98 -0,62 7,26 2,46 9,72 7,54 -5,18 -4,90
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
VA 13 2,42% 1 / 7 2,38 2,38 0,00 6,30 8,20 14,50 4,93 -2,55 -3,92
IA 6 1,12% 1 / 5 3,16 3,98 -0,82 9,53 0,67 10,20 12,75 -9,59 -6,37
NV 6 1,12% 0 / 6 4,93 4,93 0,00 12,49 2,59 15,08 6,83 -1,90 -7,56
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
OH 18 3,35% 1 / 10 4,52 5,09 -0,57 4,58 2,11 6,69 2,30 2,22 -0,06
NH 4 0,74% 0 / 7 6,50 6,50 0,00 9,61 1,37 8,24 10,43 -3,93 -3,11
MI 16 2,97% 2 / 5 6,70 9,26 -2,56 16,44 3,42 13,02 14,44 -7,74 -9,74
MN 10 1,86% 0 / 3 8,00 8,00 0,00 10,24 3,48 6,76 11,34 -3,34 -2,24
WI 10 1,86% 0 / 4 8,65 8,65 0,00 13,90 0,38 13,52 11,34 -2,69 -5,25
PA 20 3,72% 1 / 5 8,40 8,79 -0,39 10,31 2,50 7,81 11,34 -2,94 -1,91
OR 7 1,30% 0 / 1 9,00 9,00 0,00 16,35 4,16 12,19 15,57 -6,57 -7,35
NM 5 0,93% 0 / 5 9,86 9,86 0,00 15,13 0,79 15,92 9,26 0,60 -5,27

I am pushed for time today, so I must keep it brief.

Polls from CO, IA, OH, MI (2) and PA.

The Rasmussen from Iowa is a surprise because it actually shows an Obama lead, not a Romney lead. And compared to the last RAS, which showed Romney +2, with now Obama +2, that is a 4 point swing TOWARD the president from that pollster. However, with other larger polling margins falling out of the 2-week window for the statistic, the margin average fell to Obama +3.16.

Same story in Colorado: Rasmussen again surprised with an Obama +1 poll from the Silver Dollar Highway State, but compared to the last RAS from Colorado, which showed Romney +2, this is then a 3 point swing to the President from that pollster. The margin average, however, stayed at exactly Obama +1.0.

The Wenzel poll of Ohio is from the polling organization that polls for WND. Enough said. And even Wenzel could not get the race beyond a +1 for Romney. That moved the Ohio average down to Obama +4.52, within the Battleground Zone, outside of the tossups and outside of the MoE. BTW, I did a large write-up of the Rasmussen poll of OHIO from 10/05, which you can read here. For the first time in RAS's polling history, ever, a Democratic Presidential candidate hit the "50" mark.

There were two polls of Michigan, one from McCollum / Foster / Baydoun, which has produced some of the most ridiculous results of the season. But again, since context is everything, even this poll shows an improvement for Obama. The last MFB poll showed it at Obama +1.84, it is now Obama +3.45. But the turnaround in the EPIC-MRA for Michigan is indeed interesting: it shrank from Obama +10 to now Obama +3 in 7 days. There is no doubt that the debate performance had something to do with that. That moved Obama's Michigan average down to +6.70.

The Susquehanna (R) poll for Pennsylvania, and produced for the PA Republican Party, actually shows an improvement for Obama. That last time, in the midst of double digit polls for the President, it was only Obama +1. Now, it is Obama +2. The margin average for PA is now Obama +8.40, safe DEM.

When you look at the Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania margin averages, you see a traditional pattern emerging (not every cycle, but more often than not):

Ohio: Obama +4.52
Michigan: Obama +6.70
Pennsylvania: Obama +8.40

Michigan is about 2 points stronger for Obama than Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is about two points stronger than Michigan. There is a lot of historical precedence for this.

None of the polling that came in on Monday changed the electoral map. There are two tossups, just like on Sunday. And in the rest of the Battegrounds, President Obama is still leading - but the margins are indeed narrowing.

----------------------------------------------------------------------


Nr. NATIONAL POLLING Date Sample MoE
Obama Romney Und/Oth Mar.

AVERAGE: N/A N/A N/A
48,36 46,00 5,64 2,36











RECENT:

















548 Ipsos/Reuters 08.10.12 1490 LV +/-2.9
47 45 8 2
547 Pew Research 08.10.12 1112 LV +/-4.0
45 49 6 -4
546 Gallup * 08.10.12 3050 RV +/-2.0
50 45 5 5
545 Rasmussen 08.10.12 1500 LV +/-3.0
48 48 4 0
544 Politico / GWU 08.10.12


49 48 3 1
540 Clarus (R) - post-debate (combined summary poll) 06.10.12 590 LV +/-4.3
46 47 7 -1
539 Clarus (R) - pre-debate (comined summary poll) 06.10.12 590 LV +/-4.3
49 45 6 4
532 McLaughlin (R ) /Conservative.org 04.10.12 1000 LV +/-3.1
49 45 6 4
530 YouGov 04.10.12 1000 A +/-4.7
49 44 7 5
533 UPI / CVOTER 03.10.12 1000 RV +/-3.5
49 46 5 3
530 NPR / DemCorps (D) / Resurgent Republic (R) 03.10.12 800 LV +/-3.5
51 44 5 7
527 United Technologies / National Journal 02.10.12
+/-3.7
47 47 6 0
526 NBC / WSJ 02.10.12 832 LV +/-3.4
49 46 5 3
525 PPP (KOS / SEIU) 02.10.12 1100 RV +/-2.8
49 45 6 4



The big eye popper is the PEW research poll, which suddenly shows Romney +4. Obama's national margin (7 days, no repeaters  - the Clarus double poll was explained in the last Battleground report) has shrunk to +2.36.

KOS, for whom  PPP (D) does its national polling, that the weekly polling that comes out on Tuesday will show a Romney lead - for the first time.

This combined with the fact that Gallup is moving to a likely voter screen on 10/09 probably means that we will see a practically tied average on the national numbers starting on 10/09.

I would say that the VP debates and the next presidential debate will become very critical in this race.


Here is the polling outlook for 2012-10-008: Obama +2.36% (-0.62 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-007Obama +2.98% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-006Obama +2.98% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-005Obama +3.54% (-0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-004Obama +3.74% (-0.05 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-003Obama +3.79% (+0.22 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-002Obama +3.57% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-001
Obama +4.11% (-0.52 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-030
Obama +4.63% (-0.10 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-029Obama +4.73% (+0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-028
Obama +4.53% (-0.21 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-027Obama +4.74% (+0.36 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-026Obama +4.38% (+0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-025Obama +4.19% (+0.23 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-024Obama +3.96% (+0.21 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-023Obama +3.75% (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-022Obama +3.69% (+0.18 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-021Obama +3.87% (+0.49 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-020Obama +3.38% (-0.22 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-019Obama +3.60% (-0.40 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for
 2012-09-018: Obama +4.00% (+0.07 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-017Obama +3.93% (+0.12 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-016Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-015Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-014Obama +3.81% 

Net shift since 09/14Obama -1.45%


This number (Average shift since 09/14Obama -1.45) shows now appreciable drop in margin for the President following the debate on 10/03. Until that point in time, the numbers were extremely stabile.

October 8th, 2012 marked exactly 29 days until the General Election.




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