08 October 2012

Battleground/National Report 10/07/2012 - T-minus 30 days, DELUXE EDITION


Sunday, October 7, 2012, was exactly 30 days before the General Election on November 6, 2012.

Here is the BATTLEGROUND REPORT from 30 days before the GE 2008, from 10/05/2008.

Complete polling results for all states for 2012 to-date are here as an EXCEL table for 10/07/2012 in GOOGLE DOCS. All polls are hyperlinked.

The BATTLEGROUND REPORTS started to run with the national numbers a well on 10/05. Here is the NATIONAL POLLING OUTLOOK thread, with links to every day going back to September 13, 2012. Want to see the numbers for a specific day? Go to that link.

The LEGEND for the following EXCEL table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the table:


A B C D E E G H I J K L M
State EV % of EC Polls 07.10.12 06.10.12 Shift 2008 2004 SWING (H-I) End polling 2008 Compare E – K Compare E – GE008
GA 16 2,97% 0 / 2 13,50 13,50 0,00 5,20 16,60 11,40 3,85 9,65 8,30
NE 5 0,93% 0 / 10 11,00 11,00 0,00 14,93 33,22 18,29 19,00 -8,00 -3,93
IN 11 2,04% 0 / 3 8,00 8,00 0,00 -1,03 20,68 21,71 1,18 6,82 9,03
AZ 11 2,04% 0 / 5 7,20 7,20 0,00 8,48 10,47 1,99 4,43 2,77 -1,28
TN 3 0,56% 0 / 1 7,00 7,00 0,00 15,06 14,27 0,79 14,00 -7,00 -8,06
MT 3 0,56% 0 / 2 6,50 6,50 0,00 2,38 20,50 18,12 1,64 4,86 4,12
MO 10 1,86% 0 / 6 5,70 5,70 0,00 0,13 7,20 7,07 0,46 5,24 5,57
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
NE-02 1 0,19% 0 / 1 0,00 0,00 0,00 1,21 21,69 20,48 4,00 -4,00 -1,21
NC 15 2,79% 0 / 9 0,44 0,44 0,00 0,33 12,43 12,76 0,62 -0,18 0,11
CO 9 1,67% 2 / 5 1,00 2,70 -1,70 8,95 4,67 13,62 6,62 -5,62 -7,95
VA 13 2,42% 1 / 7 2,38 2,29 0,09 6,30 8,20 14,50 4,93 -2,55 -3,92
FL 29 5,39% 0 / 11 2,33 2,33 0,00 2,81 5,01 7,82 1,79 0,54 -0,48
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
USA 538 100,00% 3 / 18 2,98 2,98 0,00 7,26 2,46 9,72 7,54 -4,56 -4,28
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
IA 6 1,12% 0 / 8 3,98 3,98 0,00 9,53 0,67 10,20 12,75 -8,77 -5,55
NV 6 1,12% 0 / 6 4,93 4,93 0,00 12,49 2,59 15,08 6,83 -1,90 -7,56
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
OH 18 3,35% 0 / 10 5,09 5,09 0,00 4,58 2,11 6,69 2,30 2,79 0,51
NH 4 0,74% 0 / 7 6,50 6,50 0,00 9,61 1,37 8,24 10,43 -3,93 -3,11
MN 10 1,86% 0 / 3 8,00 8,00 0,00 10,24 3,48 6,76 11,34 -3,34 -2,24
WI 10 1,86% 0 / 4 8,65 8,65 0,00 13,90 0,38 13,52 11,34 -2,69 -5,25
PA 20 3,72% 0 / 10 8,79 8,79 0,00 10,31 2,50 7,81 11,34 -2,55 -1,52
OR 7 1,30% 0 / 1 9,00 9,00 0,00 16,35 4,16 12,19 15,57 -6,57 -7,35
MI 16 2,97% 0 / 9 9,26 9,26 0,00 16,44 3,42 13,02 14,44 -5,18 -7,18
NM 5 0,93% 0 / 5 9,86 9,86 0,00 15,13 0,79 15,92 9,26 0,60 -5,27


Light polling on 10/07, but important polling.

There were two dueling polls from Colorado, one showing Romney +3.5 (Gravis-R), the other showing Obama +4 (Selzer). These two polls replaced two polls from 09/21 and 09/23. All said and done, Colorado has moved back into the tossups, with Obama +1.0 as the average.

PPP put out a poll of Virginia, showing Obama +3 (50-47). This narrowly moved the VA average up +0.09, to Obama +2.38, just barely out of the battlegrounds.

And I would just like to note in my ever so mild-mannered fashion, that every time pollsters, either PPP or RAS or WAPO or, well, you name it, poll Obama and Romney against 3rd and 4th party candidates, Gary Johnson keeps coming in at around 4%. This is the PPP (D) result from VA with those candidates in the mix:


"If the candidates for President this fall were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt Romney, Libertarian Gary Johnson, Constitution Party candidate Virgil Goode, and 
Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama 48% 
Mitt Romney 44% 
Gary Johnson  4% 
Virgil Goode  1% 
Jill Stein  0% 
Undecided  2% 

Margin: Obama +4 instead of +3. Only 2% undecideds.


I expect to see a plethora of polling come out of all corners this week, probably also a great deal of dueling polling in the most bitter of battleground states.

And now, the Deluxe-Edition, the week in review:


A E E E E E E E G
State 01.10.12 02.10.12 03.10.12 04.10.12 05.10.12 06.10.12 07.10.12 7 day Shift
GA 13,50 13,50 13,50 13,50 13,50 13,50 13,50 0,00
NE 11,00 11,00 11,00 11,00 11,00 11,00 11,00 0,00
IN 8,00 8,00 8,00 8,00 8,00 8,00 8,00 0,00
AZ 6,75 6,75 7,20 7,20 7,20 7,20 7,20 0,45
TN 7,00 7,00 7,00 7,00 7,00 7,00 7,00 0,00
MT 7,00 7,00 7,00 7,00 7,00 6,50 6,50 -0,50
MO 9,12 5,90 5,30 5,70 5,70 5,70 5,70 -3,42
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
NE-02 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
NC 0,86 1,00 0,44 0,44 0,44 0,44 0,44 -0,42
CO 3,19 3,19 3,19 2,70 2,70 2,70 1,00 -2,19
VA 4,31 4,68 3,86 3,86 2,29 2,29 2,38 -1,93
FL 2,90 2,91 2,60 2,60 2,33 2,33 2,33 -0,57
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
USA 4,55 3,57 3,74 3,74 3,54 2,98 2,98 -1,57
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
IA 3,98 3,98 3,98 3,98 3,98 3,98 3,98 0,00
NV 4,43 5,19 5,19 5,19 4,93 4,93 4,93 0,50
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
OH 5,45 5,45 5,55 5,55 5,09 5,09 5,09 -0,36
NH 6,33 6,50 6,50 6,50 6,50 6,50 6,50 0,17
MN 8,00 8,00 8,00 8,00 8,00 8,00 8,00 0,00
WI 6,19 6,19 7,09 7,09 7,09 8,65 8,65 2,46
PA 8,79 8,79 8,79 8,79 8,79 8,79 8,79 0,00
OR 9,00 9,00 9,00 9,00 9,00 9,00 9,00 0,00
MI 9,26 9,26 9,26 9,26 9,26 9,26 9,26 0,00
NM 9,58 9,86 9,86 9,86 9,86 9,86 9,86 0,28


You can see a sharp decline in the national average, and declines in four key battleground states. The largest state decline has been in Colorado, the smallest, in Ohio.



Nr. NATIONAL POLLING Date Sample MoE
Obama Romney Und/Oth Mar.

AVERAGE: N/A N/A N/A
48,54 45,56 5,90 2,98











RECENT:

















543 Ipsos/Reuters 07.10.12 1490 LV +/-2.9
47 45 8 2
542 Gallup * 07.10.12 3050 RV +/-2.0
49 46 5 3
541 Rasmussen 07.10.12 1500 LV +/-3.0
47 49 4 -2
540 Clarus (R) - post-debate (combined summary poll) 06.10.12 590 LV +/-4.3
46 47 7 -1
539 Clarus (R) - pre-debate (comined summary poll) 06.10.12 590 LV +/-4.3
49 45 6 4
532 McLaughlin (R ) /Conservative.org 04.10.12 1000 LV +/-3.1
49 45 6 4
530 YouGov 04.10.12 1000 A +/-4.7
49 44 7 5
533 UPI / CVOTER 03.10.12 1000 RV +/-3.5
49 46 5 3
530 NPR / DemCorps (D) / Resurgent Republic (R) 03.10.12 800 LV +/-3.5
51 44 5 7
527 United Technologies / National Journal 02.10.12
+/-3.7
47 47 6 0
526 NBC / WSJ 02.10.12 832 LV +/-3.4
49 46 5 3
525 PPP (KOS / SEIU) 02.10.12 1100 RV +/-2.8
49 45 6 4
521 Merriman Group 01.10.12 981 RV +/-3.1
46 43 11 3
520 ARG 01.10.12 800 LV +/-3.6
49 46 5 3
519 ABC / WaPo 01.10.12 813 LV +/-4.0
49 47 4 2
517 CNN / ORC 01.10.12 783 LV +/-3.5
50 47 3 3
515 Zogby (online) 01.10.12 800 LV +/-3.5
49,7 41,1 9,2 8,6
514 Politico / GWU / Battleground 01.10.12 1000 RV +/-3.1
49 47 4 2

Three polls in, three polls out, all from the same pollsters, and absolutely no change. The national margin stays at Obama +2.98, just as it was on Saturday.


Here is the polling outlook for 2012-10-007: Obama +2.98% (0.00 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-006Obama +2.98% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-005Obama +3.54% (-0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-004Obama +3.74% (-0.05 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-003Obama +3.79% (+0.22 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-002Obama +3.57% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-001
Obama +4.11% (-0.52 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-030
Obama +4.63% (-0.10 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-029Obama +4.73% (+0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-028
Obama +4.53% (-0.21 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-027Obama +4.74% (+0.36 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-026Obama +4.38% (+0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-025Obama +4.19% (+0.23 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-024Obama +3.96% (+0.21 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-023Obama +3.75% (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-022Obama +3.69% (+0.18 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-021Obama +3.87% (+0.49 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-020Obama +3.38% (-0.22 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-019Obama +3.60% (-0.40 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for
 2012-09-018: Obama +4.00% (+0.07 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-017Obama +3.93% (+0.12 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-016Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-015Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-014Obama +3.81% 

Net shift since 09/14Obama -0.83%


This number (Average shift since 09/14Obama -0.83) shows now appreciable drop in margin for the President following the debate on 10/03. Until that point in time, the numbers were extremely stabile.

October 7th, 2012 marked exactly 30 days until the General Election.


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