31 October 2012

Battleground Report 10/30/2012: T-minus 7 days


BATTLEGROUND REPORT 10/30/2012: T-minus 7 days 





Tuesday, October 30th, 2012, was exactly 7 days before the General Election on November 6, 2012. 

Flashback to 2008: here is the Battleground Report for 10/28/2008, 7 days before that election. 

Complete polling results for all states for 2012 to-date are here as an EXCEL table for 10/30/2012 in GOOGLE DRIVE. All polls are hyperlinked. 

The BATTLEGROUND REPORTS started to run with the national numbers as well on 10/05. The national averages, all the way back to September 13, 2012, are at the bottom of the report.

The LEGEND for the following EXCEL table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the table:


Here is the battleground table for 10/30:

A B C D E E G H I J K L M
State EV % of EC Polls 30.10.12 29.10.12 Shift 2008 2004 SWING (H-I) End polling 2008 Compare E – K Compare E – GE008
IN 11 2,04% 1 / 4 13,00 13,03 -0,03 -1,03 20,68 21,71 1,18 11,82 14,03
NE 5 0,93% 0 / 10 11,00 11,00 0,00 14,93 33,22 18,29 19,00 -8,00 -3,93
MO 10 1,86% 0 / 5 10,76 10,76 0,00 0,13 7,20 7,07 0,46 10,30 10,63
MT 3 0,56% 1 / 3 8,57 8,05 0,52 2,38 20,50 18,12 1,64 6,93 6,19
GA 16 2,97% 0 / 3 9,00 9,00 0,00 5,20 16,60 11,40 3,85 5,15 3,80
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
AZ 11 2,04% 0 / 3 5,00 5,00 0,00 8,48 10,47 1,99 4,43 0,57 -3,48
NE-02 1 0,19% 0 / 1 5,00 5,00 0,00 1,21 21,69 20,48 4,00 9,00 6,21
NC 15 2,79% 1 / 7 2,43 2,00 0,43 0,33 12,43 12,76 0,62 3,05 2,76
FL 29 5,39% 2 / 9 0,54 0,76 -0,22 2,81 5,01 7,82 1,79 2,33 3,35
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
USA 538 100,00% 8 / 16 0,34 0,16 0,18 7,26 2,46 9,72 7,54 7,88 7,60
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
VA 13 2,42% 1 / 12 1,03 1,45 -0,42 6,30 8,20 14,50 4,93 -3,90 -5,27
CO 9 1,67% 1 / 6 1,67 1,67 0,00 8,95 4,67 13,62 6,62 -4,95 -7,28
IA 6 1,12% 0 / 3 2,00 2,00 0,00 9,53 0,67 10,20 12,75 -10,75 -7,53
OH 18 3,35% 5 / 15 2,54 2,28 0,26 4,58 2,11 6,69 2,30 0,24 -2,04
NH 4 0,74% 0 / 7 2,57 2,57 0,00 9,61 1,37 8,24 10,43 -7,86 -7,04
NV 6 1,12% 0 / 7 3,14 3,14 0,00 12,49 2,59 15,08 6,83 -3,69 -9,35
WI 10 1,86% 0 / 6 3,50 3,50 0,00 13,90 0,38 13,52 11,34 -7,84 -10,40
MI 16 2,97% 0 / 2 4,68 4,68 0,00 16,44 3,42 13,02 14,44 -9,76 -11,76
PA 20 3,72% 0 / 7 5,28 5,28 0,00 10,31 2,50 7,81 7,30 -2,02 -5,03
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
OR 7 1,30% 2 / 4 6,25 6,00 0,25 16,35 4,16 12,19 15,57 -9,32 -10,10
MN 10 1,86% 0 / 6 6,33 6,33 0,00 10,24 3,48 6,76 11,34 -5,01 -3,91
NM 5 0,93% 1 / 3 7,67 9,50 -1,83 15,13 0,79 15,92 9,26 -1,59 -7,46


----------------------------------------------------------------

As was the case one week ago, the states that were polled on the day of the Electoral Landscape got short-changed, so, I am reporting the poll input from both 10/29 and 10/30 here.

There were 16 polls for 14 states (5 true battlegrounds) on 10/29: CO (2), FL (2), GA, KS, MD, MA, NV, NH, NM, NC, OH, OR, TX, VA


There were 20 polls for 13 states (5 true battlegrounds) on 10/30: CA, CO, FL, FL, IN, MA, MT, NE, NM, NC, ND, OH (5), OR (2), VA (2)

There is a lot to write about these polls, but I am guesting in a concert in a city about 2 hours away from Bonn and will be back on Thursday morning my time, so this report will be fleshed out on Thursday.

Two states are moving slightly more in favor of each candidate: North Carolina and Ohio. In both states, one candidate has now retained a small but resilient edge over a number of polls and has hit 50 more often than not.: Romney +2.43 in North Carolina and Obama +2.54 in Ohio. It looks very much as if these two states are starting to decide as the pool of undecideds pretty much vanishes. Obama also has very resilient +1.67 lead in Colorado, but there are still more undecideds left in this state than the other two.

But where they are starting to decide, both Florida (Romney +0.54) and Virginia (Obama +1.03) are just as tossup as ever and I would now suggest that these will be the last two states to be called on - or after - election day.


Quasi-Battlegrounds

Both Oregon and New Mexico look as if they could enter the battlegrounds. They are not. Glen Bolger (R), of small-Democratic margin in large Democratic state fame, has put out an internal poll for the Heather Wilson (R) campaign, claiming that Wilson is ahead and Obama is only +5 ahead in a state where all other polls are showing Obama +10, around half of the expected Obama margin. Bolger has played this trick in 4 or 5 states now, and all subsequent polling has shown his numbers to be very off in comparison to the others. And in Oregon, when it rains, it pours: after 10 months with only 5 polls of the state, 3 polls came in over 10/29 and 10/30, showing Obama +5, +6 and +7. The smallest lead was from a Republican pollster (Hoffman)All indications are that Obama has had a lock on Oregon the entire time, but his margin will be lower than 2008, but decidedly larger than 2004 or 2000 - somewhere in the middle. It is currently Obama +6.25 in Oregon and Obama +7.67 in New Mexico.

Georgia received a second poll in two days, this time showing Romney +8. This poll is from SUSA, which was also very accurate in 2012. I mentioned in the battleground Report for 10/28 that the Rosetta Stone poll of Georgia made the claim that Romney was getting 22% of the Black Vote in the Peach State, a state that McCain won by only +5.20% in 2008. SUSA shows Romney getting 9% of the black vote, still larger than the national estimates, but way under the prediction made in the Rosetta poll. Of the 12 polls take in Georgia to date, 1 was a generic, and of the other eleven, Romney got +8 or below in 7 of those polls. The current average is: Romney +9.00.


Non-Battlegrounds


Pharos polling is back, and had results from a number of Red States: Montana, Indiana, Nebraska and North Dakota, all showing very healthy leads for Mitt Romney. Pharos shows Romney +20 in Nebraska, which is a real jump over older polling and now shows an average of Romney +17 in the Cornhusker State. In the other three states, the leads are very similar to the other polling.


A number of Red States received polls on 10/29, probably most importantly, Kansas, which received its first poll of 2012, the "Jawhawk Poll", showing Romney +19.8. Take a look at that Nebraska poll value from the paragraph above: Romney +20. These two states tend to parallel each other very closely in margin and have identical voting histories going back to 1912!


It also happens in Blue states, but rarely, that there is unbelievably disparate polling, but take a look at Massachusetts:


Nr. MASSACHUSETTS Date Sample MoE Obama Romney Und. Mar.

AVERAGE N/A N/A N/A 56,60 36,60 6,80 20,00


















35 Suffolk 30.10.12 600 LV +/-4.0 63 31 7 32
34 Boston Globe / UNH 29.10.12 583 LV +/-4.1 52 38 10 14
33 MassINC / WBUR 24.10.12 516 LV +/-4.4 56 36 8 20
32 Kimball Consulting ( R ) 22.10.12 761 LV +/-3.48 55 39 6 16
31 PPP (D) / LCV 17.10.12 709 LV +/-3.7 57 39 4 18
30 YouGov 16.10.12 669 LV +/-4.9 55 36 9 19
29 Rasmussen 16.10.12 500 LV +/-4.5 57 42 1 15


The most recent Suffolk result (Obama +32) is more than double the margin from the Boston Globe from the day before - an 18 point disparity! Such a thing is not really possible in the same universe at the same time. This is the second time that Obama has hit 30 in a Massachusetts poll, so it is not impossible, but it is also unlikely, for two reasons: even though he is going to lose his second "home-state" handily, the candidacy of a former Massachusetts Governor is bound to bring out more of the Republican base in the Bay State and since the polling between Senatorial Incumbent Scott Brown (R) and challenger Elizabeth Warren (D) is much closer than the presidential averages, this can only mean that there are a ton of split-ticket voters in Massachusetts, which is very possible, as Massachusetts has a large number of Independents who generally, but not always, vote democratic. In fact, the only reason why we have seen 34 polls of "Taxachusetts", as the Conservatives like to pan the state, is because of this marquee Senatorial race, where Brown may be unseated by Warren. The current average: Obama +20.00.



The National Numbers:

Nr. NATIONAL POLLING Date Sample MoE
Obama Romney Und/Oth Mar.

AVERAGE: N/A N/A N/A
47,44 47,78 4,78 0,34











RECENT:

















691 Zogby (online) 30.10.12 1073 LV +/-3.1
47 48 5 -1
690 CBS / NYT 30.10.12 563 LV +/-4.0
48 47 5 1
689 NPR / DemCorps (D) / Resurgent Republic (R) 30.10.10 1000 LV +/-5.6
47 48 5 -1
688 ABC / WaPo - Daily Tracking 30.10.12 1771 LV +/-3.5
48 49 3 -1
687 Ipsos/Reuters 30.10.12 2356 LV +/-3.4
47 46 7 1
686 Rasmussen - daily tracking 30.10.12 1500 LV +/-3.0
47 49 4 -2
685 UPI / CVOTER 30.10.12 1590 LV +/-4.5
48 47 5 1
384 PPP (KOS / SEIU) 30.10.12 1400 LV +/-2.6
49 49 2 0
682 Pew Research 29.10.12 1495 LV +/-2.9
47 47 6 0
681 ARG 29.10.12 1200 LV +/-3.0
48 48 4 0
680 GWU/Politico Battleground 29.10.12 1000 LV +/-3.1
49 48 3 1
676 PPP (D) / AUC – daily tracking 29.10.12 1200 LV +/-2.8
48 49 3 -1
675 Gallup (LV Screen) - daily tracking 29.10.12 2700 LV +/-2.0
46 51 3 -5
671 Investors Business Daily / TIPP - daily tracking 28.10.12 1097 LV +/-3.5
45,4 44,1 10,5 1,3
654 AP/GFK 25.10.12 1512 A +/-4.3
45 47 8 -2
646 Pharos Research 24.10.12 918 LV +/-3.23
49,7 47,4 2,9 2,3


There were 8 polls from 10/30 of 16 in the total mix. All results are LV.



Here is the polling outlook for 2012-10-030: Romney +0.16 (+0.18 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-029Romney +0.16 (+0.08 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-028Romney +0.08 (-0.01 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-027Romney +0.09 (-0.10 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-026Romney +0.19 (+0.11 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-025Romney +0.08 (+0.25 shift -or- -0.25 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-024Obama +0.17 (-0.38 shift -or- +0.38 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-023Romney +0.21 (+0.15 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-022Romney +0.06 (-0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-021Romney +0.19 (+0.54 shift -or- -0.54 shift)
Here was  the polling outlook for 2012-10-020Obama +0.35 (-0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-019Obama +0.44 (-0.58 shift -or- +0.58 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-018Romney +0.13 (-0.14 shift )
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-017: Romney +0.27 (+0.18 shift )
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-016: Romney +0.09 (+0.31 shift -or- -0.31 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-015: Obama +0.22 (-0.46 shift -or- +0.46 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-014: Romney +0.24 (-0.35 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-013: Romney +0.59 (+0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-012: Romney +0.50 (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-011: Romney +0.44 (+0.44 shift -or- -0.44 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-0100.00 (-0.81 shift -or- +0.81 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-009Obama +0.81% (-1.55 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-008Obama +2.36% (-0.62 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-007Obama +2.98% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-006Obama +2.98% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-005Obama +3.54% (-0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-004Obama +3.74% (-0.05 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-003Obama +3.79% (+0.22 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-002Obama +3.57% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-001
Obama +4.11% (-0.52 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-030
Obama +4.63% (-0.10 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-029Obama +4.73% (+0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-028
Obama +4.53% (-0.21 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-027Obama +4.74% (+0.36 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-026Obama +4.38% (+0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-025Obama +4.19% (+0.23 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-024Obama +3.96% (+0.21 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-023Obama +3.75% (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-022Obama +3.69% (+0.18 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-021Obama +3.87% (+0.49 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-020Obama +3.38% (-0.22 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-019Obama +3.60% (-0.40 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for
 2012-09-018: Obama +4.00% (+0.07 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-017Obama +3.93% (+0.12 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-016Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-015Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-014Obama +3.81% 

Net shift since 09/14Obama -4.15% / Romney +4.15%


For the twentieth day in a row, we are seeing a statistical tie in the national numbers.



October 30th, 2012 
marked exactly 7 days until the General Election.

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