29 October 2012

Battleground Report 10/28/2012: T-minus 9 days - DELUXE edition


BATTLEGROUND REPORT 10/28/2012: T-minus 9 days - DELUXE EDITION (Week in Review)





Sunday, October 28th, 2012, was exactly 9 days before the General Election on November 6, 2012. 

Flashback to 2008: here is the Battleground Report for 10/26/2008, 9 days before that election. I also published a "State of the Race" commentary on that day.

Complete polling results for all states for 2012 to-date are here as an EXCEL table for 10/28/2012 in GOOGLE DRIVE. All polls are hyperlinked. 

The BATTLEGROUND REPORTS started to run with the national numbers as well on 10/05. The national averages, all the way back to September 13, 2012, are at the bottom of the report.

The LEGEND for the following EXCEL table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the table:


Here is the battleground table for 10/28:

A B C D E E G H I J K L M
State EV % of EC Polls 28.10.12 27.10.12 Shift 2008 2004 SWING (H-I) End polling 2008 Compare E – K Compare E – GE008
GA 16 2,97% 1 / 2 9,50 8,00 1,50 5,20 16,60 11,40 3,85 5,65 4,30
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
AZ 11 2,04% 0 / 3 5,00 5,00 0,00 8,48 10,47 1,99 4,43 0,57 -3,48
NE-02 1 0,19% 1 / 1 5,00 0,00 5,00 1,21 21,69 20,48 4,00 9,00 6,21
NC 15 2,79% 0 / 5 2,40 2,40 0,00 0,33 12,43 12,76 0,62 3,02 2,73
FL 29 5,39% 1 / 8 1,23 1,48 -0,25 2,81 5,01 7,82 1,79 3,02 4,04
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
USA 538 100,00% 6 / 17 0,08 0,09 -0,01 7,26 2,46 9,72 7,54 7,62 7,34
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
CO 9 1,67% 0 / 6 1,17 1,17 0,00 8,95 4,67 13,62 6,62 -5,45 -7,78
VA 13 2,42% 1 / 12 1,25 1,09 0,16 6,30 8,20 14,50 4,93 -3,68 -5,05
IA 6 1,12% 0 / 3 2,00 2,00 0,00 9,53 0,67 10,20 12,75 -10,75 -7,53
OH 18 3,35% 3 / 14 2,26 1,98 0,28 4,58 2,11 6,69 2,30 -0,04 -2,32
NH 4 0,74% 2 / 7 2,29 2,20 0,09 9,61 1,37 8,24 10,43 -8,14 -7,32
NV 6 1,12% 1 / 6 2,67 2,40 0,27 12,49 2,59 15,08 6,83 -4,16 -9,82
WI 10 1,86% 0 / 6 3,50 3,50 0,00 13,90 0,38 13,52 11,34 -7,84 -10,40
MI 16 2,97% 0 / 2 4,68 4,68 0,00 16,44 3,42 13,02 14,44 -9,76 -11,76
PA 20 3,72% 0 / 7 5,28 5,28 0,00 10,31 2,50 7,81 7,30 -2,02 -5,03
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
MN 10 1,86% 1 / 6 6,33 7,00 -0,67 10,24 3,48 6,76 11,34 -5,01 -3,91


----------------------------------------------------------------

There were 11 polls for 8 states (4.5 true battlegrounds, including NE-02) on 10/28: FL, GA, MN, NH (2), NE (also NE-02), NV, OH, OH (2), VA – 11 state polls (91 since the last Electoral Landscape).


Florida received one poll, from PPP (D), showing Obama +1. Even so, Romney is still ahead and is developing a lean but resilient margin average that Obama seems to not be able to break. Right now, it is Romney +1.23. Still very-tossup, but Romney has now had the upper-hand for a good while.

Ohio, the epicenter of the American political universe (grin) received three polls, from "The Ohio Newspaper Poll" (which includes the Columbus Dispatch), PPP (D) and Gravis (R), showing a 49/49 tie, Obama +4 and Obama +1, respectively. The Ohio margin has grown to Obama +2.26%, and therefore moves out of the tossup zone. One would think that adding a tied poll would shrink the statistic, but on the same day, two tied polls from now more than a week ago fell out of the statistic. Of the 14 polls in the mix (Ohio has the richest gene pool of polling of any state in the Union), Obama has lead in 10, there are three ties in the mix, and Romney has won one poll. As I have been reporting for months now, the Buckeye State has been showing a lean but incredibly resilient lead for the President. Again, PPP (D) is reporting that now 34% of respondents have voted early and they broke for Obama, 63/36, just like a week ago, but now, more and more votes are "locked in".


But all of this may take a while to sort out, because of Ohio's absentee and provisional ballot system, which was explained in two of the latest Battleground Reports, HERE and HERE.

Speaking of "locked in", one poll came in for Nevada, the "FireCall / Faith Horizon Poll", which shows Obama +4. Here is their website. They claim to be totally non-partisan, but as I do with all pollsters, I am researching their history and will report later. This poll moves the average to Obama +2.67. I also did a write up on how the early voting is shaping up, based directly on the stats provided by the NV SOS website, you can read it HERE.

Polling for Viginia and New Hampshire also moved the averages just slightly upward. Notice how close the Ohio, New Hampshire and Nevada averages are to each other.


A Star Tribune Poll, conducted by Mason-Dixon Research (which has a mathematically verifiable Republican "House Effect") came in for Minnesota claiming that it is only a 3-point race in the Lone Star State, 47/44. This moves the average for Minnesota down slightly, to Obama +6.33. Minnesota is still not a Battleground state, nor will it become one.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In non-battleground polling, a Rosetta-Stone Poll came out for Channel 2, showing Romney +11 in the state of Georgia. This is not entirely surprising, for +11 lies directly between the polling values for other polls. And this is exactly the same margin that Rosetta showed for Romney in May of 2012.

What IS surprising is that the pollster went out of his way to claim that Romney is getting 22% of the Black vote in a year where most all polling shows Obama getting upwards of 95% of the black vote.  I am not saying that their figures are wrong, but I will indeed be checking the exit polls for Georgia after election night to see if their supposition held up or not.

I also find it fascinating that InsiderAdvantage (R) is based in Georgia, but has only polled its home state once. In fact, IA has hardly polled at all in this year.

A Wiese Research poll came out for Nebraska, and it was enlightening: first, it shows Romney at +14, which is right around McCain's +14.93% win in the state in 2008. That alone is a critical point:  of the 7 polls taken of the Cornhusker State for the entire year, only one shows a Romney margin larger than McCain's win from 2008, and that poll was taken at the height of the GOP primary season, as it came to the NE primaries. Look:


Nr. NEBRASKA Date Sample MoE Obama Romney Und Mar.

AVERAGE N/A N/A N/A





















7a Omaha World-Herald / Wiese - NE2 only 28.10.12 800 RV +/-3.5 44 49 7 5
7 Omaha World-Herald / Wiese 28.10.12 800 RV +/-3.5 38 52 10 14
6 Pharos Research 24.10.12 783 LV +/-3.5 41,12 50,83 8,05 9,71
5a Omaha World-Herald / Wiese - NE2 only 23.09.12 800 RV +/-3.5 44 44 12 0
5 Omaha World-Herald / Wiese 23.09.12 800 RV +/-3.5 40 51 9 11
4 Project New America 20.06.12 601 LV
40 52 8 12
3 Rasmussen 18.05.12 500 LV +/-4.5 39 53 8 14
2a PPP – NE02 only 28.03.12

45 46 9 1
2 PPP (D) 28.03.12 1028 V +/-3.1 39 51 10 12
1 Rasmussen 07.03.12 500 LV +/-4.5 35 52 13 17



But more importantly about this poll, we have now received new information about NE-02 (Omaha), which has moved from a tie in the last two Nebraska polls that also polled the congressional district, to Romney +5. Wiese has a pretty good reputation for accuracy, so I would say it is is a pretty certain bet that Obama will not take Omaha ("Obamaha") this time around. We cannot credibly make an average of any polls in Nebraska, for they are spread-out too far from each other timewise, but were we to average the last 1/2 year, then 14+ 9.71+11+12+14 / 4= +12.14. Or if you average them all for fun, then 14+ 9.71+11+12+14+12+17 = +12.82

We have seen definite erosion in Obama margins in at least 10 key states, none more pronounced than in Connecticut, Massachusetts or California. But that has not translated to massive Romney jumps in a number of red states nor has it placed those Obama states in danger.  But once again, we do not see the "Breadbasket" states of the Union jumping back to their previous margin levels for George W. Bush, Jr. and before.  And I am still wondering if the farm-bill, which is languishing in the Republican controlled House of Representatives, is playing a role in all of this. It is also a shame that there has not been even one poll of Kansas in 2012 (there were some in 2011), for these states have almost identical voting records going back 100 years and their margins were practically identical in 2008: +14.92 and +14.93 for McCain. 

Everytime I have written the hope for a state to get polled, then a poll has appeared a few short days later. Maybe I will get lucky this time, too. For the polling Oklahoma, the next neighbor state, is also showing 10% less on margin for Romney than he had at the beginning of the year. Data from Kansas could either confirm or dispel this data.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

And now, the Deluxe Table (week at a glance):


A B C D E F G H I J K L
State EV % of EC Polls 22.10.12 23.10.12 24.10.12 25.10.12 26.10.12 27.10.12 28.10.12 Shift
IN 11 2,04% 0 / 4 13,67 13,67 13,13 13,13 13,03 13,03 13,03 -0,64
NE 5 0,93% 0 / 10 11,00 11,00 11,00 11,00 11,00 11,00 11,00 0,00
MO 10 1,86% 0 / 5 10,20 10,20 10,20 10,20 10,20 10,76 10,76 0,56
MT 3 0,56% 0 / 3 9,40 9,40 8,05 8,05 8,05 8,05 8,05 -1,35
GA 16 2,97% 1 / 2 8,00 8,00 8,00 8,00 8,00 8,00 9,50 1,50
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
AZ 11 2,04% 0 / 3 3,50 3,50 3,50 5,00 5,00 5,00 5,00 1,50
NE-02 1 0,19% 1 / 1 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 5,00 5,00
NC 15 2,79% 0 / 5 2,00 2,00 2,00 0,33 1,50 2,40 2,40 0,40
FL 29 5,39% 1 / 8 0,44 0,56 0,49 0,62 1,48 1,48 1,23 0,79
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
USA 538 100,00% 6 / 17 0,06 0,21 0,17 0,07 0,19 0,19 0,09 0,03
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
CO 9 1,67% 0 / 6 0,78 0,78 0,78 1,20 1,17 1,17 1,17 0,39
VA 13 2,42% 1 / 12 2,00 0,71 1,29 1,25 0,89 1,09 1,25 3,25
IA 6 1,12% 0 / 3 3,16 3,16 3,16 1,00 2,00 2,00 2,00 -1,16
OH 18 3,35% 3 / 14 1,60 1,60 1,89 1,89 1,98 1,98 2,26 0,66
NH 4 0,74% 2 / 7 2,25 1,75 1,40 1,40 2,20 2,20 2,29 0,04
NV 6 1,12% 1 / 6 5,20 4,60 4,00 3,80 2,40 2,40 2,40 -2,80
WI 10 1,86% 0 / 6 3,50 3,33 3,50 3,50 3,50 3,50 3,50 0,00
MI 16 2,97% 0 / 2 7,18 7,18 7,18 4,68 4,68 4,68 4,68 -2,50
PA 20 3,72% 0 / 7 4,14 4,14 4,12 5,16 5,16 5,28 5,28 1,14
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
MN 10 1,86% 1 / 6 8,00 7,40 7,40 7,40 7,40 7,00 6,33 -1,67
OR 7 1,30% 0 / 1 7,00 7,00 7,00 7,00 7,00 7,00 7,00 0,00
NM 5 0,93% 0 / 2 9,58 9,58 9,58 9,58 9,50 9,50 9,50 -0,08


The numbers to watch are the numbers in the "SHIFT" column. Interestingly enough, two Virginia shifted 3.25 points in margin AVERAGE back over to the Obama side of the line, while Nevada saw a -2.80 point shift and Michigan dived +2.50 points on average as well. Probably the most important shift number here is Ohio, which has, in spite of 14 polls including 3 absolute tie, moved up in average by +0.66.



The National Numbers:

Nr. NATIONAL POLLING Date Sample MoE
Obama Romney Und/Oth Mar.

AVERAGE: N/A N/A N/A
47,54 47,62 4,85 0,08











RECENT:

















673 ABC / WaPo 28.10.12 1295 LV +/-3.0
48 49 3 -1
672 Ipsos/Reuters 28.10.12 1665 LV +/-3.1
49 46 5 3
671 Investors Business Daily / TIPP - daily tracking 28.10.12 1097 LV +/-3.5
45,4 44,1 10,5 1,3
670 PPP (D) / AUC – daily tracking 28.10.12 1200 LV +/-2.8
48 49 3 -1
669 Gallup (LV Screen) - daily tracking 28.10.12 2700 LV +/-2.0
46 50 4 -4
668 Rasmussen - daily tracking 28.10.12 1500 LV +/-3.0
47 50 3 -3
667 UPI / CVOTER 27.10.12 1590 LV +/-4.5
48 48 4 0
654 AP/GFK 25.10.12 1512 A +/-4.3
45 47 8 -2
646 Pharos Research 24.10.12 918 LV +/-3.23
49,7 47,4 2,9 2,3
636 PPP (KOS / SEIU) 23.10.12 1300 RV +/-2.7
48 48 4 0
634 YouGov 23.10.12 1000 LV +/-4.9
48 46 6 2
629 CBS News 22.10.12 790 LV +/-4.0
48 46 6 2
627 Zogby (online) 22.10.12 800 LV +/-3.5
50 47 3 3
625 Democracy Corps 22.10.12 1000 LV +/-3.1
49 46 5 3
624 Monmouth 22.10.12 1402 LV +/-2.6
45 48 7 -3
623 ARG 22.10.12 1200 LV +/-3.0
47 49 4 -2
616 GWU/Politico Battleground 22.10.12 1000 LV +/-3.1
47 49 4 -2



There were 6 polls from 10/28 of 17 in the total mix. All results are LV.

Here is the polling outlook for 2012-10-028: Romney +0.08 (-0.01 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-027Romney +0.09 (-0.10 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-026Romney +0.19 (+0.11 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-025Romney +0.08 (+0.25 shift -or- -0.25 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-024Obama +0.17 (-0.38 shift -or- +0.38 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-023Romney +0.21 (+0.15 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-022Romney +0.06 (-0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-021Romney +0.19 (+0.54 shift -or- -0.54 shift)
Here was  the polling outlook for 2012-10-020Obama +0.35 (-0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-019Obama +0.44 (-0.58 shift -or- +0.58 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-018Romney +0.13 (-0.14 shift )
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-017: Romney +0.27 (+0.18 shift )
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-016: Romney +0.09 (+0.31 shift -or- -0.31 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-015: Obama +0.22 (-0.46 shift -or- +0.46 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-014: Romney +0.24 (-0.35 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-013: Romney +0.59 (+0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-012: Romney +0.50 (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-011: Romney +0.44 (+0.44 shift -or- -0.44 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-0100.00 (-0.81 shift -or- +0.81 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-009Obama +0.81% (-1.55 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-008Obama +2.36% (-0.62 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-007Obama +2.98% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-006Obama +2.98% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-005Obama +3.54% (-0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-004Obama +3.74% (-0.05 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-003Obama +3.79% (+0.22 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-002Obama +3.57% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-001
Obama +4.11% (-0.52 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-030
Obama +4.63% (-0.10 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-029Obama +4.73% (+0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-028
Obama +4.53% (-0.21 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-027Obama +4.74% (+0.36 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-026Obama +4.38% (+0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-025Obama +4.19% (+0.23 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-024Obama +3.96% (+0.21 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-023Obama +3.75% (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-022Obama +3.69% (+0.18 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-021Obama +3.87% (+0.49 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-020Obama +3.38% (-0.22 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-019Obama +3.60% (-0.40 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for
 2012-09-018: Obama +4.00% (+0.07 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-017Obama +3.93% (+0.12 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-016Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-015Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-014Obama +3.81% 

Net shift since 09/14Obama -3.89% / Romney +3.89%


For the eighteenth day in a row, we are seeing a statistical tie in the national numbers.



October 28th, 2012 
marked exactly 9 days until the General Election.

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