28 October 2012

Battleground Report 10/27/2012: T-minus 10 days


BATTLEGROUND REPORT 10/27/2012: T-minus 10 days 





Saturday, October 27th, 2012, was exactly 10 days before the General Election on November 6, 2012. 

Flashback to 2008: there was no battleground report for 10 days before the GE in 2008. Instead, there was Poll Convergence 11 and the Distillation.

Complete polling results for all states for 2012 to-date are here as an EXCEL table for 10/27/2012 in GOOGLE DRIVE. All polls are hyperlinked. 

The BATTLEGROUND REPORTS started to run with the national numbers as well on 10/05. The national averages, all the way back to September 13, 2012, are at the bottom of the report.

The LEGEND for the following EXCEL table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the table:


Here is the battleground table for 10/27:


A B C D E E G H I J K L M
State EV % of EC Polls 27.10.12 26.10.12 Shift 2008 2004 SWING (H-I) End polling 2008 Compare E – K Compare E – GE008
IN 11 2,04% 0 / 4 13,03 13,03 0,00 -1,03 20,68 21,71 1,18 11,85 14,06
NE 5 0,93% 0 / 10 11,00 11,00 0,00 14,93 33,22 18,29 19,00 -8,00 -3,93
MO 10 1,86% 1 / 5 10,76 10,20 0,56 0,13 7,20 7,07 0,46 10,30 10,63
MT 3 0,56% 0 / 3 8,05 8,05 0,00 2,38 20,50 18,12 1,64 6,41 5,67
GA 16 2,97% 0 / 2 8,00 8,00 0,00 5,20 16,60 11,40 3,85 4,15 2,80
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
AZ 11 2,04% 0 / 3 5,00 5,00 0,00 8,48 10,47 1,99 4,43 0,57 -3,48
NC 15 2,79% 1 / 5 2,40 1,50 0,90 0,33 12,43 12,76 0,62 3,02 2,73
FL 29 5,39% 0 / 8 1,48 1,48 0,00 2,81 5,01 7,82 1,79 3,27 4,29
NE-02 1 0,19% 0 / 1 0,00 0,00 0,00 1,21 21,69 20,48 4,00 4,00 1,21
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
USA 538 100,00% 6 / 17 0,09 0,19 -0,10 7,26 2,46 9,72 7,54 7,73 7,45
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
VA 13 2,42% 2 / 11 1,09 0,89 0,20 6,30 8,20 14,50 4,93 -3,84 -5,21
CO 9 1,67% 0 / 6 1,17 1,17 0,00 8,95 4,67 13,62 6,62 -5,45 -7,78
OH 18 3,35% 0 / 14 1,98 1,98 0,00 4,58 2,11 6,69 2,30 -0,32 -2,60
IA 6 1,12% 0 / 3 2,00 2,00 0,00 9,53 0,67 10,20 12,75 -10,75 -7,53
NH 4 0,74% 0 / 5 2,20 2,20 0,00 9,61 1,37 8,24 10,43 -8,23 -7,41
WI 10 1,86% 0 / 6 3,50 3,50 0,00 13,90 0,38 13,52 11,34 -7,84 -10,40
NV 6 1,12% 0 / 5 2,40 2,40 0,00 12,49 2,59 15,08 6,83 -4,43 -10,09
MI 16 2,97% 0 / 2 4,68 4,68 0,00 16,44 3,42 13,02 14,44 -9,76 -11,76
PA 20 3,72% 1 / 7 5,28 5,16 0,12 10,31 2,50 7,81 7,30 -2,02 -5,03
OR 7 1,30% 0 / 1 7,00 7,00 0,00 16,35 4,16 12,19 15,57 -8,57 -9,35
MN 10 1,86% 1 / 5 7,00 7,40 -0,40 10,24 3,48 6,76 11,34 -4,34 -3,24
NM 5 0,93% 0 / 2 9,50 9,50 0,00 15,13 0,79 15,92 9,26 0,24 -5,63


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There were 9 polls for 8 states (3 battlegrounds) on 10/27: CA, MN, MO, NJ, NC, PA, TN, VA, VA –  (80 new polls since the last Electoral Landscape) 


The pollsters decided to give the most ad-battered, most-mail battered, most campaign visited state of Ohio a break for a day. This is probably a good thing as dear friends of mine back home in Ohio are telling me they are so sick of being contacted, they are about to cast write-in votes for Ron Paul, just for fun.

The Old Dominion of Virginia received two polls, both of which are telling: Gravis (R) shows the state at a draw, 48/48, but WAPO shows Obama at +4, 51/47. I suppose it depends upon which side of the spectrum to which you subscribe, but the Washington Post is hardly a "liberal rag" and the WAPO national numbers actually show Romney +1 at current. The Virginia average as of 10/27 is: Obama +1.09.

Virginia currently has the second richest pooling gene-poll of 11 polls (behind Ohio), and it is very telling to see what has been happening with them:


Nr. VIRGINIA Date Sample MoE Obama Romney Und Mar.

AVERAGE N/A N/A N/A 47,91 46,82 5,27 1,09


















71 WAPO 27.10.12 1228 LV +/-3.5 51 47 2 4
70 Gravis (R) 27.10.12 645 LV +/-3.9 48 48 4 0
69 JzAnalytics (Zogby) / Newsmax 26.10.12 834 LV +/-3.5 48 48 4 0
68 Purple Strategies 26.10.12 600 LV +/-3.1 47 47 6 0
67 Fox News (Pulse) 25.10.12 1203 LV +/-3.0 44 46 10 -2
66 JzAnalytics (Zogby) / Newsmax 25.10.12 832 LV +/-3.5 49 47 4 2
65 Rasmussen 25.10.12 750 LV +/-4.0 48 50 2 -2
64 PPP (D) / Health Care for America Now 25.10.12 722 LV +/-3.6 51 46 3 5
63 JzAnalytics (Zogby) / Newsmax 24.10.12 827 LV +/-3.5 49 46 5 3
62 Old Dominion University Poll* 23.10.12 465 LV +/-3.4 50 43 7 7
61 Mellman (D) / AUC 23.10.12 800 LV +/-3.46 46 45 9 1
60 Pulse (R) / Let Freedom Ring (Tea Party) 22.10.12 1000 LV +/-3.0 47 46 7 1
59 Wenzel (R) / Citizens United 22.10.12 1000 LV +/-3.07 47 49 4 -2



First, under the WAPO poll, we see three absolute ties in a row, from three very different pollsters: 

1.) Gravis (R) - obviously from the Right
2.) Zogby - which the Right claims to be from the Left, but Zogby's numbers have been very inconsistent due to the online nature of his polling and most Democrats want nothing to do with Zogby.
3.) Purple Strategies - which is probably as neutral as it can get. 

The Zogby, however, is interesting to watch as he put out three polls over three days, with rolling tracking, and went from Obama +3 on day 1 to Obama +2 on day 2 to an absolute tie on day 3. The three other Right-Wing dedicated pollsters (FoxNews, Rasmussen and Wenzel) all show Romney +2. The Left-Wing dedicated pollster Mellman shows an Obama +1. One of the surprise values I saw 6 days ago was the poll sponsored by the Tea Party, showing Obama +1. From the Battleground Report on 10/23, I already lambasted the Old Dominion University poll as worthless, because of  the 28-day polling time-frame.

But no matter how you slice it, no matter which side of the spectrum you are on, there can be no disagreement that with polling numbers like this, Virginia, once an absolute GOP bastion for 44 years straight, is now a highly-competitive tossup state. The President's strategy of going on the offensive paid off in 2008, and regardless whether he wins or loses Virginia this time around, by bringing the fight to the GOP (once again) on "their turf" has caused Republicans to have to sink money and time into this state. I wrote in a very long 2009 analysis of VA that Obama would probably work to cement this state into the Democratic column, and if he wins it this time around, you can bet that the Democrats will continue to do everything they can to make Virginia a Democratic state (best-case scenario) or an eternal swing-state (next best case scenario). And probably for this very reason, we are hearing generally less about North Carolina.

Speaking of North Carolina, a new Rasmussen poll came in showing Romney +6 in the Tarheel State. This is exactly the same margin and toplines as from the Rasmussen poll from 10/18. As is the case with Virginia, there is a polling war going on here between pollsters aligned with the Right vs. pollsters aligned with the Left. However, there has been markedly less polling in North Carolina than in its neighbor to the North, Virginia, which tells me that many pollsters are beginning to think that Romney has closed the deal here and will probably pick-up North Carolina. You also hear the Obama campaign talk less and less about this state. This in no way means that GOTV efforts will be less, but in a tacit way, the Obama campaign is starting to concede this state. Nate Silver at 538 did an outstanding write-up on North Carolina back at the beginning of September, saying that Obama's win there was essentially too early, that the demographics of the state still lean more to the Right than people think, that the state flipped into the Democratic column a couple cycles earlier than the demographics normally would have allowed. I mentioned this write-up also in Electoral Landscape No. 3, from 09/15, and concurred with him back then. That being said, with an average of Romney +2.40, this is still clearly within the battleground zone, but no longer a tossup. Once again, we are talking about a once core GOP state that has been a very expensive battleground, one again forcing the GOP to divert resources to a state that before did not need this kind of attention.

A new Enquirer poll was released for quasi-battleground Pennsylvania and for non-battleground New Jersey. The results: Obama +6 in the Keystone State, Obama +10 in the Garden State. This moves the state's average to Obama +5.28, still outside the official +5 battleground zone boundary.This is also the seventh poll in a row - after the GOP sponsored Susquehanna outlier poll that showed Romney +4 - to show a healthy Obama lead. Remember, the Obama landslide of +10.31% from 2008 was an exception, not the rule. The majority of the time, this state has been won by middle-single digit margins:



PARank.Winning %% Margin% Margin over NationalNotes
200820 / 32
54.47%
+10.31%
+3.05%

200418 / 34
50.92%
+2.50%
+4.96%

200016 / 36
50.60%
+4.17%
+3.65%

199623 / 29
49.17%
+9.20%
+0.68%
Closely paralleled national stats.
199216 / 37
43.01%
+9.02%
+3.46

198813 / 39
50.70%
+2.32%
-5.41%


Pennsylvania margin average, 1988-2008 (6 cycles): DEM+5.48%





Now, go look at Obama's current statistic for Pennsylvania: Obama +5.28%, absolutely on track with the 6 cycle average for this state.

But the Enquirer Poll shows a smaller margin for Obama in both Pennsylvania and in New Jersey: it was Obama +8, now Obama +6. In New Jersey, it was +11, now it is +10.

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You will see that I am presenting the extended Battleground Table, with some states that really are not battlegrounds anymore. Neither Missouri nor Minnesota are battlegrounds, but I am still tracking the daily shifts. Because from those states we cal also learn a thing or two.

In Missouri, Romney's margin is now a very solid landslide +10.76, with four of five polls giving him double digit margins. Romney has a 100% chance of retaining the Show-Me State, but the margin is worth looking at. First, if Obama wins in the National Popular Vote and in the Electoral College, and Missouri stays with the GOP, then it definitely loses it's status as bellwether state, for it would have gone with the loser twice in a row. It is the shift in Missouri that is worth looking at:


MORankWinning %% MarginPart. ValueSwing“National SwingTrend
2008302249.36%+0.13%+7.39%-7.07%+9.72%+2.65
2004272553.30%+7.20%+4.74%+3.86%+2.98%+0.88
200024 /2850.42%+3.34%+3.86%+9.64%+8.00%+1.64
199627 / 2547.54%+6.30%-2.22%-3.85%+2.96%-6.81
199214 /3844.07%+10.15%+4.59%+14.13%+13.29%+0.84
198817 / 3551.83%+3.98%-3.75%-16.07-10.49%-5.58
Blue shading = DEM pick-up over the cycle before.
Red shading = GOP pick-up over the cycle before.


Missouri margin average, 1988-2008 (6 cycles): DEM +0.30%


Actually, a +10 win for Romney in Missouri, if the national vote is close to a tie, would mean a +10 swing to the GOP for the state over 2008 and a roughly +2.5 to +3.0 "trend" over 2008 (trend is a comparison of the state swing to the national swing) - which would be in line with the trend from 2008 over 2004. If you look at the trend values closely, this state has trended GOP in five of the last six cycles.

In Minnesota, a St. Cloud State University poll came out showing Obama +8, 53/45. Now, this may look "lean", but it only moves the MN average to Obama +7.00. When I saw the St. Cloud poll, I laughed innerly, for I remembered seeing a St. Cloud poll back in 2008 that made me laugh so hard, I fell out of my seat at that time. For comparison (once again, context is everything): on 10/25/2008, exactly 10 days before the election, St. Cloud published its poll, showing only Obama +5, 42/37. Yes, 10 days before the election, St. Cloud had Obama at 42%! The Right was guffawing on that day that because of this poll, McCain and Palin were going to take the North Star State. As it turned out, the poll was off by 5 percent on margin and by 12 percent on topline. Obama won Minnesota quite easily. So, in context of the past, this poll is merely a confirmation that Minnesota is in no way a competitive state. Let's look at that 6-cycle average for Minnesota again:


MNRank.Winning %% Margin% Margin over NationalNotes
200821 / 3154.06%+10.24%+2.98%
200416 / 3651.09%+3.48%+5.94%
200017 / 3547.91%+2.40%+1.88%Strong Nader showing.
199612 / 4051.10%+16.14%+7.62%
199211 / 4143.48%+11.63%+6.07%Strong Perot showing.
198806 / 4652.91%+7.02%+14.75%

Minnesota margin average, 1988-2008 (6 cycles): DEM+8.49%
Minnesota current average: Obama +7.00.

I bet that on election day, Obama comes close to or slightly surpasses +10, and Minnesota will become a 10-for-10 Democratic state.


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In non-battleground polling, a poll from MTSU came out for Tennessee, showing Romney at a whalloping +25, 59/34. This is a HUGE shift over the last MTSU poll from February, which showed Romney at just +6. Here the stats for Tennessee:


Nr. TENNESSEE Date Sample MoE Obama Romney Und Mar.

AVERAGE N/A N/A N/A 38,50 55,50 6,00 17,00


















6 MTSU 27.10.12 650 LV +/-5.0 34 59 7 25
5 YouGov 16.10.12 484 LV +/-5.0 43 52 5 9
4 YouGov 21.09.12 789 RV +/-3.9 42 49 9 7
3 Vanderbilt 20.05.12 842 RV +/-4.0 40 47 13 7
2 MTSU 29.02.12 646 A +/-4.0 41 47 12 6
1 Vanderbilt 26.02.12 1508 RV +/-2.6 39 42 19 3

Just yesterday, I was wondering if the Evangelical Vote in Oklahoma was maybe dipping, and I used Arkansas as a comparison:

"It is probably helpful to point out that there is a large Evangelical contingent in Oklahoma, and perhaps this is why. But there is also a very large Evangelical contingent in Arkansas, and Romney is actually doing better there than McCain did. So, maybe not. I am wondering if the construction of the Keystone Pipeline has something to do with this."

Perhaps I should have looked to Tennessee instead, for in their polling report, they very specifically mention the Evangelical Vote:

"Dr. Jason Reineke, associate director of the MTSU Poll, said there are several possible 
explanations as to why white evangelicals have gotten behind Romney following the primary.

“Some may be responding to signals by evangelical leaders – Franklin Graham’s September column in USA Today is a recent example – that it’s OK for an evangelical to vote for a Mormon,” Reineke said. “Also, some religious voters’ choices may be driven more by opposition  to Obama than direct support for Romney. However, it is also important to note that it is far from  uncommon for partisans who didn’t vote for the winner in their primary to come home to the  party, almost regardless of the candidate selected, in these highly polarized political times. 

“Thus the support for Romney we see among white evangelical Christians actually may have 
little to do with their race or religion and just be another example of partisan loyalty and 
entrenchment.”

This catapults the Tennessee average up to: Romney +17.00. Let's take a look at the last 8 cyles for this state:



Year
Rank
Winning %
% Margin
Part. Value
Swing“
National Swing
Trend
2008
42 / 10
56.85%
+15.06%
+22.32%
+0.79%
+9.72%
+10.51
2004
33 / 19
56.80%
+14.27%
+11.82%
+10.41%
+2.98%
+7.43
2000
27 / 25
51.15%
+3.86%
+4.38%
+6.27%
+8.00%
+1.73
1996
29 / 23
48.00%
+2.41%
-6.11%
+2.24%
+2.96%
+0.72
1992
22 / 30
47.08%
+4.65%
-0.91%
+20.99%
+13.29%
+7.70
1988
35 / 17
57.89%
+16.34%
+8.61%
+0.07%
-10.49%
+10.56
1984
09 / 43
57.84%
+16.27%
-1.95%
+15.98%
+8.48%
+7.50
1980
08 / 44
48.70%
+0.29%
-9.45%
+13.29%
+11.80%
+1.49



Blue shading = DEM pick-up over the cycle before.
Red shading = GOP pick-up over the cycle before.

Tennessee margin average, 1988-2008 (8 cycles): GOP +7.38% 
Tennessee margin average, 1988-2008 (6 cycles): GOP +7.08%


You can see that a +17 win for Romney would surpass Reagan's landslide win from 1984 and would be the third highest GOP win in this state, after Nixon in 1972 and Grant in 1868!

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In big, big, big California, a USC poll came in, showing Obama at +14 over Romney. That is a big margin, but decidely under his +24.03% win from 2008. It is also the third poll in a row to show him in the lower to middle teens instead of in the twenties in margin. The current average for California is: Obama +15.00. That is every bit as solid and unbeatable margin as a 15 in either Kansas or Nebraska, but it has electoral implications concerning the national popular vote:

"Alone, the raw vote margin in CA from 2008 (Obama +3,262,692was larger than George W. Bush's national raw vote margin from 2004 (Bush +3,021,171)."

Shave off more than 1/3 on margin, and you lose about 1.4 million votes in margin. In a close national popular vote, which appears likely to me, this could make a difference. So, let's compare how an Obama +15 win in California would look like compared to the last six cycles:



Year
Rank
Winning %
% Margin
Part. Value
Swing“
National Swing
Trend
2008
10 / 42
60.94%
+24.03%
+16.77%
+14.08%
+9.72%
+4.36
2004
09 / 43
54.31%
+9.95%
+12.41%
-1.85%
+2.98%
+1.13
2000
11 / 41
53.45%
+11.80%
+11.28%
-1.09%
+8.00%
+6.91
1996
17 / 35
51.10%
+12.89%
+4.37%
-0.50%
+2.96%
+3.46
1992
09 / 43
46.01%
+13.39%
+7.83%
+16.96%
+13.29%
+3.67
1988
16 / 36
51.13%
+3.57%
-4.16%
-12.86%
-10.49%
+2.19


blue shading = DEM pick-up

California margin average, 1988-2008 (6 cycles): DEM+11.42% 
Current California average: Obama +15.00.

We can see that an Obama win of +15 in CA would still be decidely better than Kerry from 2004 or Gore from 2000, also somewhat better than both of Clinton's margins. On election night 2000, it was the margin in California that gave Gore the slight NPV edge over Bush, Jr. In a possible nail-biter scenario on election night in 2012, should it happen, I think that Obama must stay over +14 in California at least in order match Romney or to keep ahead in the NPV. He is not losing ground in New York, but he has most definitely suffered measurable erosion in California, assuming that the Latino vote is being calculated correctly in the polling.

I assume that 3 more polls will come in: in 2008, there were four polls in the end average for California:


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The National Numbers:

Nr. NATIONAL POLLING Date Sample MoE
Obama Romney Und/Oth Mar.

AVERAGE: N/A N/A N/A
47,37 47,46 5,16 0,09











RECENT:

















667 UPI / CVOTER 27.10.12 1590 LV +/-4.5
48 48 4 0
666 Ipsos/Reuters 27.10.12 1665 LV +/-3.1
47 45 8 2
665 Investors Business Daily / TIPP - daily tracking 27.10.12 1097 LV +/-3.5
46,6 44,5 8,9 2,1
664 PPP (D) / AUC – daily tracking 27.10.12 1200 LV +/-2.8
48 48 4 0
663 Gallup (LV Screen) - daily tracking 27.10.12 2700 LV +/-2.0
46 51 3 -5
662 Rasmussen - daily tracking 27.10.12 1500 LV +/-3.0
46 50 4 -4
654 AP/GFK 25.10.12 1512 A +/-4.3
45 47 8 -2
646 Pharos Research 24.10.12 918 LV +/-3.23
49,7 47,4 2,9 2,3
636 PPP (KOS / SEIU) 23.10.12 1300 RV +/-2.7
48 48 4 0
634 YouGov 23.10.12 1000 LV +/-4.9
48 46 6 2
629 CBS News 22.10.12 790 LV +/-4.0
48 46 6 2
627 Zogby (online) 22.10.12 800 LV +/-3.5
50 47 3 3
625 Democracy Corps 22.10.12 1000 LV +/-3.1
49 46 5 3
624 Monmouth 22.10.12 1402 LV +/-2.6
45 48 7 -3
623 ARG 22.10.12 1200 LV +/-3.0
47 49 4 -2
616 GWU/Politico Battleground 22.10.12 1000 LV +/-3.1
47 49 4 -2
615 NBC / WSJ 21.10.12 816 LV +/-3.43
47 47 6 0



There were 6 polls from 10/27 of 17 in the total mix. 
All national poll results on the gene-pool are LV.

Here is the polling outlook for 2012-10-027: Romney +0.09 (-0.10 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-026Romney +0.19 (+0.11 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-025Romney +0.08 (+0.25 shift -or- -0.25 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-024Obama +0.17 (-0.38 shift -or- +0.38 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-023Romney +0.21 (+0.15 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-022Romney +0.06 (-0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-021Romney +0.19 (+0.54 shift -or- -0.54 shift)
Here was  the polling outlook for 2012-10-020Obama +0.35 (-0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-019Obama +0.44 (-0.58 shift -or- +0.58 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-018Romney +0.13 (-0.14 shift )
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-017: Romney +0.27 (+0.18 shift )
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-016: Romney +0.09 (+0.31 shift -or- -0.31 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-015: Obama +0.22 (-0.46 shift -or- +0.46 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-014: Romney +0.24 (-0.35 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-013: Romney +0.59 (+0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-012: Romney +0.50 (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-011: Romney +0.44 (+0.44 shift -or- -0.44 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-0100.00 (-0.81 shift -or- +0.81 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-009Obama +0.81% (-1.55 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-008Obama +2.36% (-0.62 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-007Obama +2.98% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-006Obama +2.98% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-005Obama +3.54% (-0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-004Obama +3.74% (-0.05 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-003Obama +3.79% (+0.22 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-002Obama +3.57% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-001
Obama +4.11% (-0.52 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-030
Obama +4.63% (-0.10 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-029Obama +4.73% (+0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-028
Obama +4.53% (-0.21 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-027Obama +4.74% (+0.36 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-026Obama +4.38% (+0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-025Obama +4.19% (+0.23 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-024Obama +3.96% (+0.21 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-023Obama +3.75% (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-022Obama +3.69% (+0.18 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-021Obama +3.87% (+0.49 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-020Obama +3.38% (-0.22 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-019Obama +3.60% (-0.40 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for
 2012-09-018: Obama +4.00% (+0.07 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-017Obama +3.93% (+0.12 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-016Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-015Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-014Obama +3.81% 

Net shift since 09/14Obama -3.90% / Romney +3.90%


For the seventeenth day in a row, we are seeing a statistical tie in the national numbers.



October 27th, 2012 
marked exactly 10 days until the General Election.

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