27 October 2012

Battleground Report 10/26/2012: T-minus 11 days


BATTLEGROUND REPORT 10/26/2012: T-minus 11 days 





Friday, October 26th, 2012, was exactly 11 days before the General Election on November 6, 2012. 

Flashback to 2008: there was no battleground report for 11 days before the GE in 2008, in preparation for Poll Convergence 11 and the Distillation, which came out 9 days before the GE, but there was a PENUMBRA REPORT on 10/24/2008.

Complete polling results for all states for 2012 to-date are here as an EXCEL table for 10/26/2012 in GOOGLE DRIVE. All polls are hyperlinked. 

The BATTLEGROUND REPORTS started to run with the national numbers as well on 10/05. The national averages, all the way back to September 13, 2012, are at the bottom of the report.

The LEGEND for the following EXCEL table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the table:


Here is the battleground table for 10/26:


A B C D E E G H I J K L M
State EV % of EC Polls 26.10.12 25.10.12 Shift 2008 2004 SWING (H-I) End polling 2008 Compare E – K Compare E – GE008
IN 11 2,04% 1 / 4 13,03 13,13 -0,10 -1,03 20,68 21,71 1,18 11,85 14,06
NE 5 0,93% 0 / 10 11,00 11,00 0,00 14,93 33,22 18,29 19,00 -8,00 -3,93
MO 10 1,86% 0 / 4 10,20 10,20 0,00 0,13 7,20 7,07 0,46 9,74 10,07
MT 3 0,56% 0 / 3 8,05 8,05 0,00 2,38 20,50 18,12 1,64 6,41 5,67
GA 16 2,97% 0 / 2 8,00 8,00 0,00 5,20 16,60 11,40 3,85 4,15 2,80
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
AZ 11 2,04% 0 / 3 5,00 5,00 0,00 8,48 10,47 1,99 4,43 0,57 -3,48
NC 15 2,79% 3 / 4 1,50 0,33 1,17 0,33 12,43 12,76 0,62 2,12 1,83
FL 29 5,39% 2 / 8 1,48 0,62 0,86 2,81 5,01 7,82 1,79 3,27 4,29
NE-02 1 0,19% 0 / 1 0,00 0,00 0,00 1,21 21,69 20,48 4,00 4,00 1,21
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
USA 538 100,00% 7 / 18 0,19 0,07 0,26 7,26 2,46 9,72 7,54 7,73 7,45
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
VA 13 2,42% 2 / 9 0,89 1,25 -0,36 6,30 8,20 14,50 4,93 -4,04 -5,41
CO 9 1,67% 1 / 6 1,17 1,20 -0,03 8,95 4,67 13,62 6,62 -5,45 -7,78
OH 18 3,35% 3 / 14 1,98 1,89 0,09 4,58 2,11 6,69 2,30 -0,32 -2,60
IA 6 1,12% 1 / 3 2,00 1,00 1,00 9,53 0,67 10,20 12,75 -10,75 -7,53
NH 4 0,74% 1 / 5 2,20 1,40 0,80 9,61 1,37 8,24 10,43 -8,23 -7,41
WI 10 1,86% 2 / 6 3,50 3,50 0,00 13,90 0,38 13,52 11,34 -7,84 -10,40
NV 6 1,12% 1 / 5 2,40 3,80 -1,40 12,49 2,59 15,08 6,83 -4,43 -10,09
MI 16 2,97% 0 / 2 4,68 4,68 0,00 16,44 3,42 13,02 14,44 -9,76 -11,76
PA 20 3,72% 0 / 6 5,16 5,16 0,00 10,31 2,50 7,81 7,30 -2,14 -5,15
OR 7 1,30% 0 / 1 7,00 7,00 0,00 16,35 4,16 12,19 15,57 -8,57 -9,35
MN 10 1,86% 0 / 5 7,40 7,40 0,00 10,24 3,48 6,76 11,34 -3,94 -2,84
NM 5 0,93% 1 / 2 9,50 9,58 -0,08 15,13 0,79 15,92 9,26 0,24 -5,63

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There were 21 polls for 14 states (8 battlegrounds) on 10/26: CO, FL (2), IN, IA, NV, NH, NM, NY (2), NC, NC (2), OH (3), OK, VA (2), WI, WI – 21 state polls (70 polls since the last Electoral Landscape).


On the Romney side, he gained ground in both Florida and North Carolina. Both states are still within the tossups, with current averages at Romney +1.48 and Romney +1.50, respectively. However, the one Gravis (R) poll of North Carolina showing Romney +8, when all others are showing between +1 and maximum +3, is probably a major outlier. We shall see soon enough. In Florida, Romney has hit or exceeded the 50 mark in 4 of the 8 polls in the mix.

On the Obama side, the movement was mixed: three states moved more toward Obama, three moved toward Romney, but all stayed on the Obama side.

Nevada dropped the most, mostly because of a large Obama +8 poll falling out of the statistical one-week window. The current Obama +2.40 average looks lean, but in 4 of the 5 polls in the current mix, Obama is at or over the 50 mark. That is an important detail. Also, information about the progress of early voting in Nevada, from John Ralston, is showing that the Democrats have actually improved their ground game at getting the early vote to happen, especially in Clark County, which accounts for 2/3 of the statewide vote. If this trend continues in the next 6 days or so, then the likelihood that one can call an Obama "lock" on Nevada will grow exponentially.

Iowa gained the most, with a Gravis (R) Obama +4 poll now added to the mix. The average: Obama +2.00, right at the edge between tossup and battleground. Of the last 7 polls from the Jayhawk State, Obama has hit or exceeded the 50 mark in 4 of them.

New Hampshire gained a good amount as well. It received it's first of three New England College polls that are to come out before Election day, showing Obama +3. This moved New Hampshire out of the tossups, but still deep within the battlegrounds, at an average of Obama +2.20. What is missing in New Hampshire is a depth of polls - the polling gene pool is just too lean to get a really good feel for this very fickle state.

Two polls came in for Wisconsin, but the average remained exactly the same, at Obama +3.50. However, of the to-date 53 polls of the Badger State, the most current Rasmussen is the first absolute tie in the state, which caused for lots of chatter in Conservative blogs on 10/26, but actually, Romney had already been ahead in 2 former Rasmussen polls (both from August) and the mssive outler GSSG, fly-by night firm poll from January, also showed Romney ahead. Of the six polls in the current mix, Obama is at or above 50 in three of them.

Colorado received one new poll, but stayed practically still at an average of Obama +1.17.

Virginia dropped ever so slightly in average, down to Obama +0.89. Two absolute ties came in for the Old Dominion on 10/26 from two very different pollsters: Zogby and Purple strategies, both showing 48/48. Flip a coin...

Ohio, Ohio, Ohio: unlike 10/25, which was an Ohio-free day in statewide polling, the Buckeye State received 3 polls for 10/26, all showing Obama leads, moving the average up to Obama +1.98. Lots of details here: 

of the 14 polls in the mix (Ohio has the richest gene poll of all the states), 3 absolute ties that came in within one day of each other will fall out of the statistic at the beginning of the next week. This alone is probably going to raise the Ohio average. Don't be surprised if it suddenly bumps up.

The CNN poll that came in is full of other important details: Obama won it by +4, 50/46 LV, but by +7, 51/44 in RV. When you add Johnson (L) and Stein (G) to the mix as candidates, Obama stays at +4, 48/44 LV, but moves to +8 in RV, 49/41. 

The CNN poll also shows that 93% of LV have already made up their minds, and that the President has a whopping +21 lead among those voting early, 59/38. In 2008, CNN had the most accurate toplines and margins for Ohio in its final poll, which showed Obama +4, 51/47, and Obama won Ohio with +4.58%, 51,38%/46.80. So, CNN is currently the gold standard for Ohio.

Here the current stats for the Buckeye State: 


Nr. OHIO Date Sample MoE Obama Romney Und Mar.

AVERAGE N/A N/A N/A 47,99 46,01 6,00 1,98


















79 CNN/ORC 26.10.12 741 LV +/-3.5 50 46 4 4
78 Purple Strategies 26.10.12 600 LV +/-3.1 46 44 10 2
77 ARG 26.10.12 600 LV +/-4.0 49 47 4 2
76 Pharos Research 24.10.12 810 LV +/-3.44 49,88 45,19 4,93 4,69
75 Lake Research (D) / US Action 24.10.12 600 LV +/-4.0 46 44 10 2
74 Time / abt SRBI 24.10.12 789 LV
49 44 7 5
73 Rasmussen 24.10.12 750 LV +/-4.5 48 48 4 0
72 SUSA 24.10.12 609 LV +/-4.1 47 44 9 3
71 Pulse (R) / Let Freedom Ring (Tea Party) 22.10.12 1000 LV +/-3.0 46 47 7 -1
70 Quinnipiac / CBS / NYT 22.10.12 1548 LV +/-3.0 50 45 5 5
69 Suffolk 22.10.12 600 LV +/-4.0 47 47 6 0
68 Angus Reid 21.10.12 502 LV +/-4.2 48 48 4 0
67 Gravis (R) 20.10.12 1943 LV +/-2.2 47 47 6 0
66 PPP (D) 20.10.12 552 LV +/-4.3 49 48 3 1
65 Fox News 19.10.12 1131 LV +/-3.0 46 43 11 3
64 Rasmussen 18.10.12 750 LV +/-4.0 49 48 3 1


And in Ohio, concerning those who have applied for and received absentee ballots: a certain percentage of those people will change their minds and go to vote on election day, but then, since their names are on the absentee ballot list, they must receive a "provisional" ballot and vote in this way - the provisionals will then be compared to the list of absentee ballots turned in to make sure there is no duplication, and those provisionals will first be counted on November 17th, 11 days after the election. So, in the case of a nail-biter in Ohio, if that happens, we may not know the results until November 17th or 18th. And if there are ballot challenges for either of both sides, this could take longer. If the election turns into a national nail-biter and it all comes down to Ohio, don't necessarily expect Ohio to be called on election night. Now, I have already cast my absentee ballot and I was told that absentee ballots received up to 5 days before the election will already have been counted and will be in the mix of results published as election night unfolds.

Both Indiana and New Mexico, which are not really battlegrounds, received polls, both lost just a smidge on the average, but both are safe. No drama here.

In non-battleground polling, the  latest SUSA poll from New York showing Obama with a massive margin of Obama +29, 62/33, is further proof that in much of his core column, there is little or no erosion. BTW, the final SUSA from 2008, showed exactly these same results: Obama +29, 62/33. However, the internals look different: in 2008, Obama won under white voters by +11, now it is +3. However his margin under black and latino voters has gone up, from +81 to +91 under black voters, and from +62 to +63.

The latest Sooner Poll from Oklahoma was a surprise: it shows Romney at +25, under McCain's margin from 2008. The last Sooner poll showed Romney +30, the one before showed Romney +35. That is a 10 point drop in margin from the same pollster over time. That doesn't make Oklahoma any less of a SAFE GOP state, but Romney won't be bolstering his national numbers if he is falling behind the 2008 statistic in states like Oklahoma.

It is probably helpful to point out that there is a large Evangelical contingent in Oklahoma, and perhaps this is why. But there is also a very large Evangelical contingent in Arkansas, and Romney is actually doing better there than McCain did. So, maybe not. I am wondering if the construction of the Keystone Pipeline has something to do with this.

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The National Numbers:


Nr. NATIONAL POLLING Date Sample MoE
Obama Romney Und/Oth Mar.

AVERAGE: N/A N/A N/A
47,48 47,67 4,86 0,19











RECENT:

















661 UPI / CVOTER 26.10.12 1179 LV +/-4.5
48 47 5 1
660 ABC / WaPo – daily tracking 26.10.12 1382 LV +/-3.0
48 49 3 -1
659 Ipsos/Reuters 26.10.12 1237 LV +/-3.2
47 48 5 -1
658 Investors Business Daily / TIPP - daily tracking 26.10.12 957 LV +/-3.5
46,9 44,6 8,5 2,3
657 PPP (D) / AUC – daily tracking 26.10.12 1200 LV +/-2.8
48 48 4 0
656 Gallup (LV Screen) - daily tracking 26.10.12 2700 LV +/-2.0
46 51 3 -5
655 Rasmussen - daily tracking 26.10.12 1500 LV +/-3.0
47 50 3 -3
654 AP/GFK 25.10.12 1512 A +/-4.3
45 47 8 -2
646 Pharos Research 24.10.12 918 LV +/-3.23
49,7 47,4 2,9 2,3
636 PPP (KOS / SEIU) 23.10.12 1300 RV +/-2.7
48 48 4 0
634 YouGov 23.10.12 1000 LV +/-4.9
48 46 6 2
629 CBS News 22.10.12 790 LV +/-4.0
48 46 6 2
627 Zogby (online) 22.10.12 800 LV +/-3.5
50 47 3 3
625 Democracy Corps 22.10.12 1000 LV +/-3.1
49 46 5 3
624 Monmouth 22.10.12 1402 LV +/-2.6
45 48 7 -3
623 ARG 22.10.12 1200 LV +/-3.0
47 49 4 -2
616 GWU/Politico Battleground 22.10.12 1000 LV +/-3.1
47 49 4 -2
615 NBC / WSJ 21.10.12 816 LV +/-3.43
47 47 6 0

There were 7 polls from 10/26 of 18 in the total mix. 
All national poll results on the gene-pool are LV.

Here is the polling outlook for 2012-10-026: Romney +0.19 (+0.11 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-025Romney +0.08 (+0.25 shift -or- -0.25 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-024Obama +0.17 (-0.38 shift -or- +0.38 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-023Romney +0.21 (+0.15 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-022Romney +0.06 (-0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-021Romney +0.19 (+0.54 shift -or- -0.54 shift)
Here was  the polling outlook for 2012-10-020Obama +0.35 (-0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-019Obama +0.44 (-0.58 shift -or- +0.58 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-018Romney +0.13 (-0.14 shift )
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-017: Romney +0.27 (+0.18 shift )
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-016: Romney +0.09 (+0.31 shift -or- -0.31 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-015: Obama +0.22 (-0.46 shift -or- +0.46 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-014: Romney +0.24 (-0.35 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-013: Romney +0.59 (+0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-012: Romney +0.50 (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-011: Romney +0.44 (+0.44 shift -or- -0.44 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-0100.00 (-0.81 shift -or- +0.81 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-009Obama +0.81% (-1.55 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-008Obama +2.36% (-0.62 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-007Obama +2.98% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-006Obama +2.98% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-005Obama +3.54% (-0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-004Obama +3.74% (-0.05 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-003Obama +3.79% (+0.22 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-002Obama +3.57% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-001
Obama +4.11% (-0.52 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-030
Obama +4.63% (-0.10 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-029Obama +4.73% (+0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-028
Obama +4.53% (-0.21 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-027Obama +4.74% (+0.36 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-026Obama +4.38% (+0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-025Obama +4.19% (+0.23 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-024Obama +3.96% (+0.21 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-023Obama +3.75% (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-022Obama +3.69% (+0.18 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-021Obama +3.87% (+0.49 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-020Obama +3.38% (-0.22 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-019Obama +3.60% (-0.40 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for
 2012-09-018: Obama +4.00% (+0.07 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-017Obama +3.93% (+0.12 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-016Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-015Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-014Obama +3.81% 

Net shift since 09/14Obama -4.00% / Romney +4.00%


For the sixteenth day in a row, we are seeing a statistical tie in the national numbers.



October 26th, 2012 
marked exactly 11 days until the General Election.

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