26 October 2012

Battleground Report 10/25/2012: T-minus 12 days


BATTLEGROUND REPORT 10/25/2012: T-minus 12 days 




Thursday, October 25th, 2012, was exactly 12 days before the General Election on November 6, 2012. 

Flashback to 2008: here is the battleground report for 12 days before the GE, from 10/23/2008.

Complete polling results for all states for 2012 to-date are here as an EXCEL table for 10/25/2012 in GOOGLE DRIVE. All polls are hyperlinked. 

The BATTLEGROUND REPORTS started to run with the national numbers as well on 10/05. Here is the NATIONAL POLLING OUTLOOK thread, with links to every day going back to September 13, 2012. Want to see the numbers for a specific day? Go to that link.

The LEGEND for the following EXCEL table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the table:


Here is the battleground table for 10/25:

A B C D E E G H I J K L M
State EV % of EC Polls 25.10.12 24.10.12 Shift 2008 2004 SWING (H-I) End polling 2008 Compare E – K Compare E – GE008
AZ 11 2,04% 1 / 3 5,00 3,50 1,50 8,48 10,47 1,99 4,43 0,57 -3,48
FL 29 5,39% 2 / 11 0,62 0,49 0,13 2,81 5,01 7,82 1,79 2,41 3,43
NC 15 2,79% 1 / 3 0,33 2,00 -1,67 0,33 12,43 12,76 0,62 0,95 0,66
NE-02 1 0,19% 0 / 1 0,00 0,00 0,00 1,21 21,69 20,48 4,00 -4,00 -1,21
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
USA 538 100,00% 8 / 20 0,07 0,17 0,24 7,26 2,46 9,72 7,54 7,61 7,33
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
IA 6 1,12% 1 / 2 1,00 3,16 -2,16 9,53 0,67 10,20 12,75 -11,75 -8,53
CO 9 1,67% 4 / 5 1,20 0,78 0,42 8,95 4,67 13,62 6,62 -5,42 -7,75
VA 13 2,42% 4 / 8 1,25 1,29 -0,04 6,30 8,20 14,50 4,93 -3,68 -5,05
NH 4 0,74% 0 / 5 1,40 1,40 0,00 9,61 1,37 8,24 10,43 -9,03 -8,21
OH 18 3,35% 0 / 12 1,89 1,89 0,00 4,58 2,11 6,69 2,30 -0,41 -2,69
WI 10 1,86% 1 / 6 3,50 3,50 0,00 13,90 0,38 13,52 11,34 -7,84 -10,40
NV 6 1,12% 1 / 5 3,80 4,00 -0,20 12,49 2,59 15,08 6,83 -3,03 -8,69
MI 16 2,97% 1 / 2 4,68 7,18 -2,50 16,44 3,42 13,02 14,44 -9,76 -11,76
PA 20 3,72% 1 / 6 5,16 4,12 1,04 10,31 2,50 7,81 7,30 -2,14 -5,15
----------------------------------------------------------------

There were 18 polls for 11 states (10 battlegrounds) on 10/25: AZ, CA, CO (3), CO, FL, FL, IA, MI, NV, NC, PA, VA (2), VA (2), WI (49 polls since the last Electoral Landscape)



Ohio, Ohio, Ohio: Actually, that is just a little pre-April fools joke! Today was, amazingly, a day without Ohio polls, Obama +1.89. I have been on the phone with a number of friends of all persuasions from Ohio and they are all saying to me that they are being bombarded with telephone calls, emails, direct mailers and faxes over Obama vs. Romney. They are really quite sick of it. Most, if not all, of them have already made up their minds. In other words, the last minute ad push in Ohio may just be a little bit of overkill...

And in Ohio, concerning those who have applied for and received absentee ballots: a certain percentage of those people will change their minds and go to vote on election day, but then, since their names are on the absentee ballot list, they must receive a "provisional" ballot and vote in this way - the provisionals will then be compared to the list of absentee ballots turned in to make sure there is no duplication, and those provisionals will first be counted on November 17th, 11 days after the election. So, in the case of a nail-biter in Ohio, if that happens, we may not know the results until November 17th or 18th. And if there are ballot challenges for either of both sides, this could take longer. If the election turns into a national nail-biter and it all comes down to Ohio, don't necessarily expect Ohio to be called on election night. Now, I have already cast my absentee ballot and I was told that absentee ballots received up to 5 days before the election will already have been counted and will be in the mix of results published as election night unfolds.

Today was Colorado and Virginia day: both of these states received 4 polls apeice, and as you can see from the table, the statistics for those states barely moved, at Obama +1.20 and Obama +1.25, respectively.

Florida received 2 polls and with older polls falling out of the statistic, the average has inched up to Romney +0.67.

On the flip side of the coin, North Carolina, with only 3 polls in the current one-week window, stands at Romney +0.33, an EXACT mirror image of Obama's razor thin win of +0.33% from 2008.

Any pollster, politician or pundit (the three nasty "P"s) who thinks he or she can make a call in either the Sunshine or the Tarheel states is simply a fool. With such micro-dynamics at work, we simply will not know until all the votes are counted. Together, those two powerhouse states have 44 electoral votes.

Iowa: just yesterday, I wrote:

"It is interesting to note that polls for Iowa rarely come in on the same day as polls for Ohio, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. Hmmmm.... somehow, there is just a different polling interval rhythm that has developed for the Jayhawk State."

Indeed. Iowa received one poll today, but 3 fell out of the statistic, leaving a very meager 2 poll gene pool and therefore, Iowa has fallen to Obama +1.00 and jumped into the tossups.

Michigan probably got the one outlier poll of the day: Foster-McCollum-Baydoun of Florida infamy from August just published a poll showing an absolute tie in the Wolverine State, 46/46, just 4 days after an Angus Reid poll showing a comfortable +9 for Obama in Michigan. It should be noted that FMB already damaged it's reputation severely by publishing a Romney +14 poll for Florida in August, when every other poll around it was showing +1 for one side or the other. Such an extreme outlier really sticks out when this happens. Above all else, FMB has been basing its results on state demographics state are not even close to the actual demographics of these two states and not even in the ballpark when it comes to past electoral performance of those demographics. Why in the world a pollster is trying to damage itself so badly is really a mystery to me. One thing is for sure: the contracts for FMB are coming almost exclusively from Fox News. Because a number of polls fell out of the statistical one-week window all at once, the gene poll is a meager three polls and the average is: Obama +4.68, just inside the battlegrounds. Surely, new polls of Michigan will appear shortly.

Whereas Michigan moved into the battlegrounds, Pennsylvania moved out of the battlegrounds. After the wild, wild, wild outlier poll from Susquehanna claiming Romney +4 in the Keystone State, 6 polls have all come in showing Obama leads, even from 2 very Right-Wing pollsters. The average now stands at Obama +5.16, tendency rising. That is, however, a large jump from the day before.

Nevada remained steady at Obama +3.80, a +0.20 shift over yesterday.

Wisconsin, in spite of a new poll, remained absolutely steady at Obama +3.50.

Arizona is becoming more interesting: Rasmussen released a Romney +9 poll for the state, pretty much a confirmation that the closeness of the two polls before it is correct. John McCain won his home state by +8.48% in 2008 - a +9 for Romney in a national election that looks to be close makes little sense, unless of course you take into consideration that the Latino vote in Arizona is probably spiking to levels we have not seen before, which then leads to the conclusion that probably all polls are grossly undercalculating the Latino vote, especially Gallup. Were Romney to truly have gained 7% nationally over McCain's national statistic, then logically, in Arizona, a CORE GOP state, we should be seeing Romney +15 or more, but we are not. Latino polling has showing Obama +60 or more for Latinos in Arizona and +50 or more nationally, but Gallup is showing Obama +9 in the Latino vote. Those numbers simply cannot exist at the same time in the same universe. They are simply too divergent from each other. The  RAS poll moves Arizona to an average of Romney +5.00.


The only non-battleground poll was a PPIC poll from California, showing a low Obama +12. Two caveats: the PPIC was conducted in the week of the SECOND presidential debate, half of it before the second debate itself, so the poll is cold coffee to begin with. Second, PPIC has been relatively cool on Obama the entire time (see: May 2012). This moves the California average to "only" Obama +15.33.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------



The National Numbers:

Nr. NATIONAL POLLING Date Sample MoE
Obama Romney Und/Oth Mar.

AVERAGE: N/A N/A N/A
47,32 47,41 5,28 0,08











RECENT:

















654 AP/GFK 25.10.12 1512 A +/-4.3
45 47 8 -2
653 UPI / CVOTER 25.10.12 1179 LV +/-4.5
48 47 5 1
652 ABC / WaPo – daily tracking 25.10.12 1386 LV +/-3.0
47 50 3 -3
651 Ipsos/Reuters 25.10.12 1168 LV +/-3.3
46 47 7 -1
650 Investors Business Daily / TIPP - daily tracking 25.10.12 885 LV +/-3.5
46,7 44,7 8,6 2
649 PPP (D) / AUC – daily tracking 25.10.12 1200 LV +/-2.8
49 48 3 1
648 Gallup (LV Screen) - daily tracking 25.10.12 2700 LV +/-2.0
47 50 3 -3
647 Rasmussen - daily tracking 25.10.12 1500 LV +/-3.0
47 50 3 -3
646 Pharos Research 24.10.12 918 LV +/-3.23
49,7 47,4 2,9 2,3
636 PPP (KOS / SEIU) 23.10.12 1300 RV +/-2.7
48 48 4 0
634 YouGov 23.10.12 1000 LV +/-4.9
48 46 6 2
629 CBS News 22.10.12 790 LV +/-4.0
48 46 6 2
627 Zogby (online) 22.10.12 800 LV +/-3.5
50 47 3 3
625 Democracy Corps 22.10.12 1000 LV +/-3.1
49 46 5 3
624 Monmouth 22.10.12 1402 LV +/-2.6
45 48 7 -3
623 ARG 22.10.12 1200 LV +/-3.0
47 49 4 -2
616 GWU/Politico Battleground 22.10.12 1000 LV +/-3.1
47 49 4 -2
615 NBC / WSJ 21.10.12 816 LV +/-3.43
47 47 6 0
605 Gravis (R) 19.10.12 805 LV +/-3.4
44 46 10 -2
604 U Conn / Hartford Courant 19.10.12 1023 LV +/-3.0
48 45 7 3


There were 8 polls on 10/25 of 20 in the total mix.. All national poll results on the gene-pool are LV.

Here is the polling outlook for 2012-10-025: Romney +0.08 (+0.25 shift -or- -0.25 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-024Obama +0.17 (-0.38 shift -or- +0.38 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-023Romney +0.21 (+0.15 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-022Romney +0.06 (-0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-021Romney +0.19 (+0.54 shift -or- -0.54 shift)
Here was  the polling outlook for 2012-10-020Obama +0.35 (-0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-019Obama +0.44 (-0.58 shift -or- +0.58 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-018Romney +0.13 (-0.14 shift )
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-017: Romney +0.27 (+0.18 shift )
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-016: Romney +0.09 (+0.31 shift -or- -0.31 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-015: Obama +0.22 (-0.46 shift -or- +0.46 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-014: Romney +0.24 (-0.35 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-013: Romney +0.59 (+0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-012: Romney +0.50 (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-011: Romney +0.44 (+0.44 shift -or- -0.44 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-0100.00 (-0.81 shift -or- +0.81 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-009Obama +0.81% (-1.55 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-008Obama +2.36% (-0.62 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-007Obama +2.98% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-006Obama +2.98% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-005Obama +3.54% (-0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-004Obama +3.74% (-0.05 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-003Obama +3.79% (+0.22 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-002Obama +3.57% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-001
Obama +4.11% (-0.52 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-030
Obama +4.63% (-0.10 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-029Obama +4.73% (+0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-028
Obama +4.53% (-0.21 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-027Obama +4.74% (+0.36 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-026Obama +4.38% (+0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-025Obama +4.19% (+0.23 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-024Obama +3.96% (+0.21 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-023Obama +3.75% (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-022Obama +3.69% (+0.18 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-021Obama +3.87% (+0.49 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-020Obama +3.38% (-0.22 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-019Obama +3.60% (-0.40 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for
 2012-09-018: Obama +4.00% (+0.07 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-017Obama +3.93% (+0.12 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-016Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-015Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-014Obama +3.81% 

Net shift since 09/14Obama -3.90% / Romney +3.90%


For the fifteenth day in a row, we are seeing a statistical tie in the national numbers.



October 25th, 2012 
marked exactly 12 days until the General Election.

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