25 October 2012

Battleground Report 10/24/2012: T-minus 13 days


BATTLEGROUND REPORT 10/24/2012: T-minus 13 days 




Wednesday, October 24th, 2012, was exactly 13 days before the General Election on November 6, 2012. 

Flashback to 2008: here is the battleground report for 13 days before the GE, from 10/22/2008.

Complete polling results for all states for 2012 to-date are here as an EXCEL table for 10/24/2012 in GOOGLE DOCS. All polls are hyperlinked. 

The BATTLEGROUND REPORTS started to run with the national numbers as well on 10/05. Here is the NATIONAL POLLING OUTLOOK thread, with links to every day going back to September 13, 2012. Want to see the numbers for a specific day? Go to that link.

The LEGEND for the following EXCEL table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the table:


Here is the battleground table for 10/24:

A B C D E E G H I J K L M
State EV % of EC Polls 24.10.12 23.10.12 Shift 2008 2004 SWING (H-I) End polling 2008 Compare E – K Compare E – GE008
IN 11 2,04% 1 / 3 13,13 13,67 -0,54 -1,03 20,68 21,71 1,18 11,95 14,16
NE 5 0,93% 0 / 10 11,00 11,00 0,00 14,93 33,22 18,29 19,00 -8,00 -3,93
MO 10 1,86% 0 / 4 10,20 10,20 0,00 0,13 7,20 7,07 0,46 9,74 10,07
MT 3 0,56% 1 / 3 8,05 9,40 -1,35 2,38 20,50 18,12 1,64 6,41 5,67
GA 16 2,97% 0 / 2 8,00 8,00 0,00 5,20 16,60 11,40 3,85 4,15 2,80
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
AZ 11 2,04% 0 / 2 3,50 3,50 0,00 8,48 10,47 1,99 4,43 -0,93 -4,98
NC 15 2,79% 0 / 5 2,00 2,00 0,00 0,33 12,43 12,76 0,62 2,62 2,33
FL 29 5,39% 1 / 10 0,49 0,56 -0,07 2,81 5,01 7,82 1,79 2,28 3,30
NE-02 1 0,19% 0 / 1 0,00 0,00 0,00 1,21 21,69 20,48 4,00 -4,00 -1,21
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
USA 538 100,00% 8 / 19 0,17 0,21 0,38 7,26 2,46 9,72 7,54 -7,37 -7,09
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
CO 9 1,67% 0 / 5 0,78 0,78 0,00 8,95 4,67 13,62 6,62 -5,84 -8,17
VA 13 2,42% 1 / 7 1,29 0,71 2,00 6,30 8,20 14,50 4,93 -3,64 -5,01
NH 4 0,74% 2 / 5 1,40 1,75 -0,35 9,61 1,37 8,24 10,43 -9,03 -8,21
OH 18 3,35% 5 / 12 1,89 1,60 0,29 4,58 2,11 6,69 2,30 -0,41 -2,69
IA 6 1,12% 0 / 5 3,16 3,16 0,00 9,53 0,67 10,20 12,75 -9,59 -6,37
WI 10 1,86% 1 / 6 3,50 3,33 0,17 13,90 0,38 13,52 11,34 -7,84 -10,40
NV 6 1,12% 2 / 4 4,00 4,60 -0,60 12,49 2,59 15,08 6,83 -2,83 -8,49
PA 20 3,72% 1 / 8 4,12 4,14 -0,02 10,31 2,50 7,81 7,30 -3,18 -6,19
OR 7 1,30% 0 / 1 7,00 7,00 0,00 16,35 4,16 12,19 15,57 -8,57 -9,35
MI 16 2,97% 0 / 4 7,18 7,18 0,00 16,44 3,42 13,02 14,44 -7,26 -9,26
MN 10 1,86% 0 / 5 7,40 7,40 0,00 10,24 3,48 6,76 11,34 -3,94 -2,84
NM 5 0,93% 0 / 4 9,58 9,58 0,00 15,13 0,79 15,92 9,26 0,32 -5,55


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There were 21 polls for 15 states (5 battlegrounds) on 10/24: AR, CT, (2), FL, IN, MA, MT, NE, NV (2), NY, ND, NH, OH (4), OH, PA, VA, WI




The Jumpers, Part II:

On 10/23, I did a long write up on Virginia and stated that it would likely move over to the Obama side of the column within the next days:


"Virginia made a major jump deep within the tossups, working it's way slowly back to Obama's side of the line and is statistically sure to jump again in the next couple of days. Here the current statistic (this is important to watch):"

Here is how Virginia was looking on 10/23:


Nr.VIRGINIADateSampleMoEObamaRomneyUndMar.

AVERAGEN/AN/AN/A47,0047,715,29-0,71










Most recent:















62Old Dominion University Poll*23.10.12465 LV+/-3.4504377
61Mellman (D) / AUC23.10.12800 LV+/-3.46464591
60Pulse (R) / Let Freedom Ring (Tea Party)22.10.121000 LV+/-3.0474671
59Wenzel (R) / Citizens United22.10.121000 LV+/-3.0747494-2
58PPP (D) / Health Care for America Now20.10.12500 LV+/-4.4494742
57Rasmussen19.10.12750 LV+/-4.047503-3
55Kimball (R)17.10.12696 LV+/-3.743543-11


And on 10/24, it jumped:


Nr. VIRGINIA Date Sample MoE Obama Romney Und Mar.

AVERAGE N/A N/A N/A 47,86 46,57 5,57 1,29










Most recent:















63 JzAnalytics (Zogby) / Newsmax 24.10.12 827 LV +/-3.5 49 46 5 3
62 Old Dominion University Poll* 23.10.12 465 LV +/-3.4 50 43 7 7
61 Mellman (D) / AUC 23.10.12 800 LV +/-3.46 46 45 9 1
60 Pulse (R) / Let Freedom Ring (Tea Party) 22.10.12 1000 LV +/-3.0 47 46 7 1
59 Wenzel (R) / Citizens United 22.10.12 1000 LV +/-3.07 47 49 4 -2
58 PPP (D) / Health Care for America Now 20.10.12 500 LV +/-4.4 49 47 4 2
57 Rasmussen 19.10.12 750 LV +/-4.0 47 50 3 -3
56 PPP (D) / LCV 18.10.12 733 LV +/-3.6 49 48 3 1
55 Kimball (R) 17.10.12 696 LV +/-3.7 43 54 3 -11
54 YouGov 16.10.12 746 LV +/-4.0 46 45 9 1



Of The Kimball (R) Romney +11 outlier fell out of the statistic, exactly at the 8 day mark, which is the same standard I use for all battlegrounds.  The average is now: Obama +1.29, still within the  tossups, by a +2.00 shift toward Obama.


Ohio, Ohio, Ohio: On 10/24, 5 polls came in for the Buckeye state, four of them showing Obama winning and one was a tie (Rasmussen). Ohio has a rich gene-pool of 12 polls within the last seven days, and the current average is: Obama +1.89. Tendency: rising for Obama. 

Pharos Reseach (San Diego, CA) put out a national poll and polls for 8 or 9 states. I am researching Pharos' reputation, but remember that this company also put out polls in 2008. The current values are all pretty close to the others - no huge outliers. Pharos calculates the numbers down to the 1/100th of a percent.

All of the battlegrounds on Romney's side of the line moved ever so slightly toward Obama. These are the new averages: 

Indiana, Romney +13.13 (-0.54 shift) - not really a battleground anymore, still on the list for comparison purposes.

Florida, Romney +0.49 (-0.07 shift) - tossup, tossup, tossup.

On the Obama side, half of the six states moved toward the President, half moved toward Romney:

Virginia and Ohio have already been explained. Both moved toward Obama. But Wisconsin also moved slighty more toward the President and now stands at Obama +3.50.

Three states on the Obama side of the line moved more toward Romney:

New Hampshire, Obama +1.40 (-0.35 shift)
Nevada, Obama +4.00 (-0.60 shift)
Pennsylvania, Obama +4.12 (-0.02 shift) - statistically insignificant.

It is interesting to note that polls for Iowa rarely come in on the same day as polls for Ohio, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. Hmmmm.... somehow, there is just a different polling interval rhythm that has developed for the Jayhawk State.

In non-battleground polling, some important numbers:

Pharos published polls for North Dakota, Nebraska and Montana. Arkansas was also polled.

At Romney +10.06, North Dakota looks a little leaner, but not much. What is important here is that the bottom-line (Obama's percentage) is exactly where it has been in other polls, but the topline is lower.

Nebraska was also a slight surprise, but not a huge one, showing Romney +9.71. This would be leaner that McCain's win in 2008 and once again, the bottom-line (Obama's percentage) is where it is in the other polls, right around 40% and again, the topline is lower than I expected. Were Nebraska to truly be an only +9 state for Romney, then it really is possible that NE-02 again is in play, but since it has not been polled since 09/23, we just don't know.

The poll from Arkansas, from the University of Arkansas, is interesting in that they made a big deal to publish the RV numbers, for in this case, the LV numbers show a much leaner margin for Romney:

Here LV:  Romney 58 / Obama 31, margin: Romney +27
Here RV:  Romney 53 / Obama 34, margin: Romney +19

That is a 9 point difference between the LV model and the RV model, in spite of the fact that conventional wisdom likes to say that Republicans always do better with LV models.

Also important to note is that this state, such an incredibly Democratic bastion, one of the "Clinton 6" southern states that have moved over to the GOP since 2000, has only shown a margin like this for a GOPer once before, for Nixon in 1972, but that was a blowout re-election. This electorate is very, very different than the one from 1972, which means that Arkansas has moved much, much harder to the right. It was the 7th most Conservative State in 2008, but with a margin like this, were it to hold on election day, Arkansas could easily move up to Partisan Ranking number 4, ahead of Alaska and Alabama.

(More later, I must get back to work now)...

-----------------------------------------------------------------------



The National Numbers:

Nr. NATIONAL POLLING Date Sample MoE
Obama Romney Und/Oth Mar.

AVERAGE: N/A N/A N/A
47,53 47,35 5,12 0,17











RECENT:

















646 Pharos Research 24.10.12 918 LV +/-3.23
49,7 47,4 2,9 2,3
645 ABC / WaPo – daily tracking 24.10.12 1394 LV +/-3.0
48 49 3 -1
644 Ipsos/Reuters 24.10.12 1222 LV +/-6.2
46 47 7 -1
643 UPI / CVOTER 24.10.12 1477 LV +/-4.5
49 47 4 2
642 Investors Business Daily / TIPP - daily tracking 24.10.12 885 LV +/-3.5
47,3 44,3 8,4 3
641 PPP (D) / AUC – daily tracking 24.10.12 1200 LV +/-2.8
49 48 3 1
640 Gallup (LV Screen) - daily tracking 24.10.12 2700 LV +/-2.0
47 50 3 -3
639 Rasmussen - daily tracking 24.10.12 1500 LV +/-3.0
46 50 4 -4
636 PPP (KOS / SEIU) 23.10.12 1300 RV +/-2.7
48 48 4 0
634 YouGov 23.10.12 1000 LV +/-4.9
48 46 6 2
629 CBS News 22.10.12 790 LV +/-4.0
48 46 6 2
627 Zogby (online) 22.10.12 800 LV +/-3.5
50 47 3 3
625 Democracy Corps 22.10.12 1000 LV +/-3.1
49 46 5 3
624 Monmouth 22.10.12 1402 LV +/-2.6
45 48 7 -3
623 ARG 22.10.12 1200 LV +/-3.0
47 49 4 -2
616 GWU/Politico Battleground 22.10.12 1000 LV +/-3.1
47 49 4 -2
615 NBC / WSJ 21.10.12 816 LV +/-3.43
47 47 6 0
605 Gravis (R) 19.10.12 805 LV +/-3.4
44 46 10 -2
604 U Conn / Hartford Courant 19.10.12 1023 LV +/-3.0
48 45 7 3

There were 8 polls on 10/24 of 19 in the total mix.. All national poll results on the gene-pool are LV.

Here is the polling outlook for 2012-10-024: Obama +0.17 (-0.38 shift -or- +0.38 shift) 


Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-023Romney +0.21 (+0.15 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-022Romney +0.06 (-0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-021Romney +0.19 (+0.54 shift -or- -0.54 shift)
Here was  the polling outlook for 2012-10-020Obama +0.35 (-0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-019Obama +0.44 (-0.58 shift -or- +0.58 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-018Romney +0.13 (-0.14 shift )
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-017: Romney +0.27 (+0.18 shift )
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-016: Romney +0.09 (+0.31 shift -or- -0.31 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-015: Obama +0.22 (-0.46 shift -or- +0.46 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-014: Romney +0.24 (-0.35 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-013: Romney +0.59 (+0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-012: Romney +0.50 (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-011: Romney +0.44 (+0.44 shift -or- -0.44 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-0100.00 (-0.81 shift -or- +0.81 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-009Obama +0.81% (-1.55 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-008Obama +2.36% (-0.62 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-007Obama +2.98% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-006Obama +2.98% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-005Obama +3.54% (-0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-004Obama +3.74% (-0.05 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-003Obama +3.79% (+0.22 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-002Obama +3.57% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-001
Obama +4.11% (-0.52 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-030
Obama +4.63% (-0.10 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-029Obama +4.73% (+0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-028
Obama +4.53% (-0.21 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-027Obama +4.74% (+0.36 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-026Obama +4.38% (+0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-025Obama +4.19% (+0.23 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-024Obama +3.96% (+0.21 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-023Obama +3.75% (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-022Obama +3.69% (+0.18 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-021Obama +3.87% (+0.49 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-020Obama +3.38% (-0.22 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-019Obama +3.60% (-0.40 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for
 2012-09-018: Obama +4.00% (+0.07 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-017Obama +3.93% (+0.12 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-016Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-015Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-014Obama +3.81% 

Net shift since 09/14Obama -3.64% / Romney +3.64%


For the fourteenth day in a row, we are seeing a statistical tie in the national numbers.



The Gallup LV results are radically different than the rest of the polling universe. Nate Silver at 538 has a good write-up about why this may be. This is a good, solid read and backs up a claim I have been making about Gallup for more than 2 years now: that their end predictions have often been way, way, way off the mark.

October 24th, 2012 
marked exactly 13 days until the General Election.

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