24 October 2012

Battleground Report 10/23/2012: T-minus 14 days


BATTLEGROUND REPORT 10/23/2012: T-minus 14 days - 


:2 maps:








Tuesday, October 23rd, 2012, was exactly 14 days before the General Election on November 6, 2012. Though this report is for 10/23, you see two maps above: one for 10/22 and one for 10/23. This is because the immensity of the Electoral Landscape No. 6 from 10/22 pretty much short-changes any battleground polls that came in on that day. Therefore, I will be noting details about both days today.

Flashback to 2008: here is the battleground report for 14 days before the GE, from 10/21/2008.

Complete polling results for all states for 2012 to-date are here as an EXCEL table for 10/23/2012 in GOOGLE DOCS. All polls are hyperlinked. 

The BATTLEGROUND REPORTS started to run with the national numbers as well on 10/05. Here is the NATIONAL POLLING OUTLOOK thread, with links to every day going back to September 13, 2012. Want to see the numbers for a specific day? Go to that link.

The LEGEND for the following EXCEL table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the table:


Here is the battleground table for 10/22:

ABCDEEGHIJKLM
StateEV% of ECPolls22.10.1221.10.12Shift20082004SWING (H-I)End polling 2008Compare E – KCompare E – GE008
----
--------------------
AZ112,04%0 / 23,503,500,008,4810,471,994,43-0,93-4,98
VA132,42%2 / 62,002,40-0,406,308,2014,504,93-2,93-4,30
NC152,79%0 / 52,002,000,000,3312,4312,760,622,622,33
FL295,39%1 / 90,440,110,332,815,017,821,792,233,25
NE-0210,19%0 / 10,000,000,001,2121,6920,484,00-4,00-1,21
----
--------------------
USA538100,00%13 / 170,060,19-0,137,262,469,727,547,607,32
----
--------------------
CO91,67%1 / 50,781,55-0,778,954,6713,626,62-5,84-8,17
OH183,35%3 / 101,601,71-0,114,582,116,692,30-0,70-2,98
NH40,74%0 / 32,250,002,259,611,378,2410,43-8,18-7,36
IA61,12%1 / 53,163,160,009,530,6710,2012,75-9,59-6,37
WI101,86%1 / 63,503,200,3013,900,3813,5211,34-7,84-10,40
PA203,72%4 / 74,143,600,5410,312,507,817,30-3,16-6,17
NV61,12%0 / 55,205,200,0012,492,5915,086,83-1,63-7,29
OR71,30%0 / 17,007,000,0016,354,1612,1915,57-8,57-9,35
MI162,97%1 / 47,187,180,0016,443,4213,0214,44-7,26-9,26


And here  is the battleground table for 10/23:

A B C D E E G H I J K L M
State EV % of EC Polls 23.10.12 22.10.12 Shift 2008 2004 SWING (H-I) End polling 2008 Compare E – K Compare E – GE008
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
AZ 11 2,04% 0 / 2 3,50 3,50 0,00 8,48 10,47 1,99 4,43 -0,93 -4,98
NC 15 2,79% 0 / 5 2,00 2,00 0,00 0,33 12,43 12,76 0,62 2,62 2,33
VA 13 2,42% 2 / 7 0,71 2,00 -1,29 6,30 8,20 14,50 4,93 -4,22 -5,59
FL 29 5,39% 1 / 9 0,56 0,44 0,12 2,81 5,01 7,82 1,79 2,35 3,37
NE-02 1 0,19% 0 / 1 0,00 0,00 0,00 1,21 21,69 20,48 4,00 -4,00 -1,21
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
USA 538 100,00% 9 / 17 0,21 0,06 0,15 7,26 2,46 9,72 7,54 7,75 7,47
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
CO 9 1,67% 1 / 5 0,78 0,78 0,00 8,95 4,67 13,62 6,62 -5,84 -8,17
OH 18 3,35% 3 / 10 1,60 1,60 0,00 4,58 2,11 6,69 2,30 -0,70 -2,98
NH 4 0,74% 1 / 4 1,75 2,25 -0,50 9,61 1,37 8,24 10,43 -8,68 -7,86
IA 6 1,12% 1 / 5 3,16 3,16 0,00 9,53 0,67 10,20 12,75 -9,59 -6,37
WI 10 1,86% 1 / 6 3,33 3,50 -0,17 13,90 0,38 13,52 11,34 -8,01 -10,57
PA 20 3,72% 4 / 7 4,14 4,14 0,00 10,31 2,50 7,81 7,30 -3,16 -6,17
NV 6 1,12% 1 / 5 4,60 5,20 -0,60 12,49 2,59 15,08 6,83 -2,23 -7,89
OR 7 1,30% 0 / 1 7,00 7,00 0,00 16,35 4,16 12,19 15,57 -8,57 -9,35
MI 16 2,97% 1 / 4 7,18 7,18 0,00 16,44 3,42 13,02 14,44 -7,26 -9,26
MN 10 1,86% 1 / 5 7,40 8,00 -0,60 10,24 3,48 6,76 11,34 -3,94 -2,84

----------------------------------------------------------------

There were 19 polls for 14 states (8 battlegrounds) on 10/22: CO, CT, FL, IA, MD, MA, NH, ND, OH, OH, OH, PA (4), VA, VA, WA, WI

There 10 polls for 9 states (7 battlegrounds) on 10/23: CT, FL, MN, NV, NH, ND, UT, VA (2), WI (105 to date since the last Electoral Landscape).


The Jumpers:

On 10/22, New Hampshire jumped out of the tossups and into the Obama battlegrounds, with an average of Obama +2.25. On 10/23, it jumped right back into the tossups and now shows an average of Obama +1.75. This of course can happen quickly when you have a relatively lean polling "gene pool" of 4 polls, where one poll is cycled in while another is cycled out. On the other hand, this statistic reminds me an awful lot of the type of win that Bush had in NH in 2000, Kerry had in 2004 and Clinton had in 1992. And as you can see from the electoral history of the Granite State, it already went through two identifiable phases of narrow election wins: from 1876-1892 (5 cycles) and from 1932-1948 (5 cycles). These last 5 cycles, from 1992-2008, have been more mixed, but both Clinton's and Obama's ca +9.5 wins in 1996 and 2008, respectively, were more the exception than the norm for this state. Also, NH has gone against the national grain and given it's electoral votes to the national loser an awful lot: in 1960 for Nixon, in 1976 for Ford, in 2000 for Bush, Jr. (Gore won in the PV in 2000), in 2004 for Kerry, so this state can be very contrary and fickle. I am writing alot about New Hampshire here for two reasons: 


1.) People will love to spread propaganda about the state shortly before election day, and most of it is not true.

2.) New Hampshire's 4 electoral votes are given a disproportionately high share of attention only because this state is probably the only state in the NE where a Republican even has a chance of winning.

Virginia made a major jump deep within the tossups, working it's way slowly back to Obama's side of the line and is statistically sure to jump again in the next couple of days. Here the current statistic (this is important to watch):


Nr. VIRGINIA Date Sample MoE Obama Romney Und Mar.

AVERAGE N/A N/A N/A 47,00 47,71 5,29 -0,71










Most recent:















62 Old Dominion University Poll* 23.10.12 465 LV +/-3.4 50 43 7 7
61 Mellman (D) / AUC 23.10.12 800 LV +/-3.46 46 45 9 1
60 Pulse (R) / Let Freedom Ring (Tea Party) 22.10.12 1000 LV +/-3.0 47 46 7 1
59 Wenzel (R) / Citizens United 22.10.12 1000 LV +/-3.07 47 49 4 -2
58 PPP (D) / Health Care for America Now 20.10.12 500 LV +/-4.4 49 47 4 2
57 Rasmussen 19.10.12 750 LV +/-4.0 47 50 3 -3
55 Kimball (R) 17.10.12 696 LV +/-3.7 43 54 3 -11


Of the seven polls (there is also a PPP from 10/18 that is not in the statistic as I don't calculate repeaters), we already had an enormous outlier from 10/17, from Kimball (R), which I lambasted very hard in the Battleground Report from 10/17. Now we have a poll from Old Dominion University, which shows Obama +7, 50/43 over Romney, but I must also lambaste this poll: it was conducted over 28 days (!!!), from 09/19-10/17 and is therefore really "cold coffee" and not representative of a true "of the moment snapshot" as a poll should be. However, as I included the wild Kimball Romney +11 outlier, I am of course also including the Old Dominion outlier. The Kimball will be cycled out as soon as the next poll for Virginia comes in, and unless 3 or 4 polls come in showing Romney at +3 or above, this state is guaranteed to slide over to the other side, by virtue of such a large outlier falling out of the statistic. What this all means is that Virginia is far more competitive than most want to realize, it may very well come to GOTV in the last days and could end up being a photo-finish, as Florida is also looking to be. The current margin is: Romney +0.71. I will be referring back to this paragraph when Virginia makes the next jump.

Florida is still tight within the tossups, currently at Romney +0.56. Let's take a closer look at Florida:


Nr. FLORIDA Date Sample MoE Obama Romney Und. Mar.

AVERAGE N/A N/A N/A 46,89 47,44 5,67 -0,56










Recent















79 Mellman (D) / AUC 23.10.12 800 LV +/-3.4 47 47 6 0
78 Angus Reid 22.10.12 482 LV +/-4.5 46 51 3 -5
77 PPP (D) / WPTV / FL Democracy 21.10.12 800 LV +/-4.0 47 48 5 -1
76 Grove (D) / PNA 20.10.12 600 LV +/-4.0 48 45 7 3
75 Rasmussen 19.10.12 750 LV +/-4.5 46 51 3 -5
74 Fox News 19.10.12 1215 LV +/-3.0 45 48 7 -3
73 CNN / ORC 19.10.12 681 LV +/-4.0 48 49 3 -1
72 SUSA 19.10.12 600 LV +/-4.1 47 46 7 1
71 Zogby (online) 19.10.12 842 LV +/-3.4 48 42 10 6


It really does look like Romney has a razor-thin edge here, but reports of early voting may change that right away. What, however, is also in this statistic is a hidden repeater: FOX NEWS uses "PulseOpinion Research", which is a subsidiary of Rasmussen, to do it's polls. Rasmussen has already admitted that Pulse uses exactly the same technology and software to run its polls, so essentially, the Rasmussen Romney +5 and Fox Romney +3 are repeaters and the Fox poll should theoretically leave the list. Without the Fox poll (which really, for all intents and purposes, is a repeater), the statistic would look like this:


Nr. FLORIDA – w/o Fox Poll Date Sample MoE Obama Romney Und. Mar.

AVERAGE N/A N/A N/A 47,13 47,38 5,50 -0,22










Recent















79 Mellman (D) / AUC 23.10.12 800 LV +/-3.4 47 47 6 0
78 Angus Reid 22.10.12 482 LV +/-4.5 46 51 3 -5
77 PPP (D) / WPTV / FL Democracy 21.10.12 800 LV +/-4.0 47 48 5 -1
76 Grove (D) / PNA 20.10.12 600 LV +/-4.0 48 45 7 3
75 Rasmussen 19.10.12 750 LV +/-4.5 46 51 3 -5
73 CNN / ORC 19.10.12 681 LV +/-4.0 48 49 3 -1
72 SUSA 19.10.12 600 LV +/-4.1 47 46 7 1
71 Zogby (online) 19.10.12 842 LV +/-3.4 48 42 10 6



However, when you see that two DEM pollsters have the race either as an absolute tie or +1 for Romney, then 1/3 of a percentage difference in the average is pretty moot right now. This also proves that I don't cherry pick polls, nor will I in the future, assuming they are from pollsters who at least have a reputation.

Colorado moved closer to an absolute tie because of a Rasmussen Romney +4 poll from 10/22, contra-indicative of the five polls before it. Average: Obama +0.71.

Ohio, Ohio, Ohio: On 10/22, three completely different Ohio polls came in: one was an absolute tie, one showed Romney +1 and one showed Obama +5. There is no doubt that things are tightening up in the Buckeye state and the statistic now looks a lot like Clinton's win in 1992 - for now. Just a reminder of the note from the last PPP poll: Debnam reminded in his PPP Ohio poll from 10/20, which showed Obama +1, that Obama is swamping in the early vote, 66/34

We can see the real importance of this state by the trips that the candidates are making, and more importantly, where they are making them. On Tuesday, following Debate no. 3 in Boca Raton, Florida, both President Obama and Vice-President Joe Biden appeared together at Triangle Park in Dayton, OH. I am from Ohio and was raised in the Dayton area. I know Triangle Park, have been there many times in my life. Dayton is the large city within Montgomery County, which is one of the two critical swing counties in Ohio, alongside Stark County. The candidate who wins both of those counties has likely won Ohio. 

Romney and Ryan were both down in Butler County, which made almost no sense to me: most people do  not know this, but Butler County was the county within the 9.25 Obama pick-up states from 2008 that gave John McCain his largest "big county" landslide: McCain 60.52% / Obama 37.94%, margin: McCain +22.58%. You can see this at the link above or on the table of the 39 largest counties from the 9.25 pickups from 2008 HERE. McCain  won only 9 of the 39 largest counties in the pick-up states from 2008, and his win in Butler County, Ohio was the largest percentage margin of those 9!  I have no idea why Romney came to Butler county, he is guaranteed to win it by a massive landslide just as McCain did. Campaigning in Butler County is not going to help Romney in Cuyahoga, Summit or Lake counties, where big Obama landslide are expected. 

The current Ohio margin: Obama +1.60. Tossup.

In Iowa, the average was Obama +3.16, also where it was before 10/19. In the last PPP poll summary, Dean Debnam reminded that the Obama lead is being generated by a 65/35 lead among early voters, just as is the case in Ohio. On 10/22, Rasmussen put out an absolute tie for Iowa and on that same day an absolute tie value from ARG was cycled out of the statistic, so  for almost two weeks now, Iowa is still at Obama +3.16

Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada all received new polls (PA got 4 polls on 10/22). Wisconsin's statistical average fell slightly to Obama +3.33, where Pennsylvania's statistic rose to Obama +4.14 and Nevada's statistic fell slightly to Obama +4.60.

Rasmussen released a Minnesota poll showing Obama +5 in a core DEM state. Rasmussen released similar results for Minnesota in 2008. But even Scott Rasmussen is unable to get the President under 51% here.  I wrote extensively over MN in the Battleground Reports for 10/15 and 10/18. Minnesota is a SAFE DEM state. Current average: Obama +7.40.

There were a number of non-battleground states that received polls, notably Connecticut and Washington State, for both of which the average has risen. Utah received a second poll within the last days and now has a margin average of Romney +52.00. This is confirmation that Mitt Romney is on track to exceed Ronald Reagan's percentage margin and topline percentage records from 1984 and 1980.

I want to also note that two polls came in for non-battleground North Dakota. The first one, Rasmussen, from 10/22, shows Romney +14, just like the last Mason-Dixon poll of "The Flickertail State". But another poll came in on 10/23, from Essman Research, showing Romney +25. Of course, such a margin is indeed possible for a Republican in this state, one of the "11ers", soon to become a "12er". However, it is at least 11 points above the polls from pollsters with a much larger reputation. So, I dug into the poll and found:

"Romney is shown beating Obama in all seven counties highlighted in the statewide telephone poll, which surveyed 500 likely voters Oct. 12 to 15."

There are 53 counties in North Dakota, and this poll only polled seven, but the poll does include 2 of the three largest counties: Cass and Burleigh.  I will be watching RED STATE stats that come in from now until election night closely, to see if Romney is moving more toward Bush-like margins from 2004 or 2000. This moves the average in North Dakota to Romney +17.67. I am not calling the poll an outlier, but 7 counties is hardly representative of 53.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------



The National Numbers:


Nr. NATIONAL POLLING Date Sample MoE
Obama Romney Und/Oth Mar.

AVERAGE: N/A N/A N/A
47,29 47,50 5,21 0,21











RECENT:

















638 ABC / WaPo 23.10.12 1382 LV +/-3.0
48 49 3 -1
637 Ipsos/Reuters 23.10.12 1030 LV +/-4.5
47 46 7 1
636 PPP (KOS / SEIU) 23.10.12 1300 RV +/-2.7
48 48 4 0
635 UPI / CVOTER 23.10.12 1421 LV +/-4.5
48 48 4 0
634 YouGov 23.10.12 1000 LV +/-4.9
48 46 6 2
633 Investors Business Daily / TIPP - daily tracking 23.10.12 885 LV +/-3.5
46,5 44,5 9 2
632 PPP (D) / AUC – daily tracking 23.10.12 1200 LV +/-2.8
47 49 4 -2
631 Gallup (LV Screen) - daily tracking 23.10.12 2700 LV +/-2.0
46 51 3 -5
630 Rasmussen - daily tracking 23.10.12 1500 LV +/-3.0
46 50 4 -4
629 CBS News 22.10.12 790 LV +/-4.0
48 46 6 2
628 ABC / WaPo 22.10.12 1376 LV +/-3.0
49 48 3 1
627 Zogby (online) 22.10.12 800 LV +/-3.5
50 47 3 3
625 Democracy Corps 22.10.12 1000 LV +/-3.1
49 46 5 3
624 Monmouth 22.10.12 1402 LV +/-2.6
45 48 7 -3
623 ARG 22.10.12 1200 LV +/-3.0
47 49 4 -2
616 GWU/Politico Battleground 22.10.12 1000 LV +/-3.1
47 49 4 -2
615 NBC / WSJ 21.10.12 816 LV +/-3.43
47 47 6 0
605 Gravis (R) 19.10.12 805 LV +/-3.4
44 46 10 -2
604 U Conn / Hartford Courant 19.10.12 1023 LV +/-3.0
48 45 7 3

There were 9 polls on 10/23 of 19 in the total mix.. All national poll results on the gene-pool are LV.

Here is the polling outlook for 2012-10-023: Romney +0.21 (+0.15 shift)


Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-022Romney +0.06 (-0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-021Romney +0.19 (+0.54 shift -or- -0.54 shift)
Here was  the polling outlook for 2012-10-020Obama +0.35 (-0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-019Obama +0.44 (-0.58 shift -or- +0.58 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-018Romney +0.13 (-0.14 shift )
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-017: Romney +0.27 (+0.18 shift )
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-016: Romney +0.09 (+0.31 shift -or- -0.31 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-015: Obama +0.22 (-0.46 shift -or- +0.46 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-014: Romney +0.24 (-0.35 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-013: Romney +0.59 (+0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-012: Romney +0.50 (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-011: Romney +0.44 (+0.44 shift -or- -0.44 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-0100.00 (-0.81 shift -or- +0.81 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-009Obama +0.81% (-1.55 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-008Obama +2.36% (-0.62 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-007Obama +2.98% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-006Obama +2.98% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-005Obama +3.54% (-0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-004Obama +3.74% (-0.05 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-003Obama +3.79% (+0.22 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-002Obama +3.57% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-001
Obama +4.11% (-0.52 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-030
Obama +4.63% (-0.10 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-029Obama +4.73% (+0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-028
Obama +4.53% (-0.21 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-027Obama +4.74% (+0.36 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-026Obama +4.38% (+0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-025Obama +4.19% (+0.23 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-024Obama +3.96% (+0.21 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-023Obama +3.75% (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-022Obama +3.69% (+0.18 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-021Obama +3.87% (+0.49 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-020Obama +3.38% (-0.22 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-019Obama +3.60% (-0.40 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for
 2012-09-018: Obama +4.00% (+0.07 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-017Obama +3.93% (+0.12 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-016Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-015Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-014Obama +3.81% 

Net shift since 09/14Obama -4.02% / Romney +4.02%


For the thirteenth day in a row, we are seeing a statistical tie in the national numbers.



The Gallup LV results are radically different than the rest of the polling universe. Nate Silver at 538 has a good write-up about why this may be. This is a good, solid read and backs up a claim I have been making about Gallup for more than 2 years now: that their end predictions have often been way, way, way off the mark.

October 23rd, 2012 
marked exactly 14 days until the General Election.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Constructive comments and critique are always welcome. Please keep it polite and respectful.