06 October 2012

Battleground Report 10/05/2012 - T-minus 32 days, plus National Polling


Friday, October 5, 2012, was exactly 32 days before the General Election on November 6, 2012.

Here the corresponding BATTLEGROUND REPORT from 32 days before the GE 2008: BATTLEGROUND REPORT from 10/03/2008

Complete polling results for all states for 2012 to-date are here as an EXCEL table for 10/05/2012 in GOOGLE DOCS. All polls are hyperlinked.

The BATTLEGROUND REPORTS run also with the national numbers. Here is the NATIONAL POLLING OUTLOOK thread, with links to every day going back to September 13, 2012. Want to see the numbers for a specific day? Go to that link.

The LEGEND for the following EXCEL table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the table:


A B C D E E G H I J K L M
State EV % of EC Polls 05.10.12 04.10.12 Shift 2008 2004 SWING (H-I) End polling 2008 Compare E – K Compare E – GE008
GA 16 2,97% 0 / 2 13,50 13,50 0,00 5,20 16,60 11,40 3,85 9,65 8,30
NE 5 0,93% 0 / 10 11,00 11,00 0,00 14,93 33,22 18,29 19,00 -8,00 -3,93
IN 11 2,04% 0 / 3 8,00 8,00 0,00 -1,03 20,68 21,71 1,18 6,82 9,03
AZ 11 2,04% 0 / 5 7,20 7,20 0,00 8,48 10,47 1,99 4,43 2,77 -1,28
TN 3 0,56% 0 / 1 7,00 7,00 0,00 15,06 14,27 0,79 14,00 -7,00 -8,06
MT 3 0,56% 0 / 2 7,00 7,00 0,00 2,38 20,50 18,12 1,64 5,36 4,62
MO 10 1,86% 0 / 6 5,70 5,70 0,00 0,13 7,20 7,07 0,46 5,24 5,57
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
NE-02 1 0,19% 0 / 1 0,00 0,00 0,00 1,21 21,69 20,48 4,00 -4,00 -1,21
NC 15 2,79% 0 / 9 0,44 0,44 0,00 0,33 12,43 12,76 0,62 -0,18 0,11
VA 13 2,42% 2 / 7 2,29 3,86 -1,57 6,30 8,20 14,50 4,93 -2,64 -4,01
FL 29 5,39% 2 / 11 2,33 2,60 -0,27 2,81 5,01 7,82 1,79 0,54 -0,48
CO 9 1,67% 1 / 5 2,70 2,70 0,00 8,95 4,67 13,62 6,62 -3,92 -6,25
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
USA 538 100,00% 3 / 16 3,54 3,74 -0,20 7,26 2,46 9,72 7,54 -4,00 -3,72
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
IA 6 1,12% 0 / 8 3,98 3,98 0,00 9,53 0,67 10,20 12,75 -8,77 -5,55
NV 6 1,12% 1 / 6 4,93 5,19 -0,26 12,49 2,59 15,08 6,83 -1,90 -7,56
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
OH 18 3,35% 2 / 10 5,09 5,55 -0,46 4,58 2,11 6,69 2,30 2,79 0,51
NH 4 0,74% 0 / 7 6,50 6,50 0,00 9,61 1,37 8,24 10,43 -3,93 -3,11
WI 10 1,86% 0 / 7 7,09 7,09 0,00 13,90 0,38 13,52 11,34 -4,25 -6,81
MN 10 1,86% 0 / 3 8,00 8,00 0,00 10,24 3,48 6,76 11,34 -3,34 -2,24
PA 20 3,72% 0 / 10 8,79 8,79 0,00 10,31 2,50 7,81 11,34 -2,55 -1,52
OR 7 1,30% 0 / 1 9,00 9,00 0,00 16,35 4,16 12,19 15,57 -6,57 -7,35
MI 16 2,97% 0 / 9 9,26 9,26 0,00 16,44 3,42 13,02 14,44 -5,18 -7,18
NM 5 0,93% 0 / 5 9,86 9,86 0,00 15,13 0,79 15,92 9,26 0,60 -5,27

The quick version:

immediately after the debate, Rasmussen and WAA (R) did quick polls, both of OH, VA and FL. Gravis did a poll of CO. These are all Republican or Republican leaning pollsters. WAA suddenly found Romney ahead in all three battlegrounds. Rasmussen found Romney ahead in VA and FL, but Obama ahead in Ohio, 50/49. This is the first time ever that RAS, either in 2012 or 2008, has found Obama at the 50 mark. Gravis found the President still ahead in NV, by +1.1 points.

So, all four of these states now have reduced margins of varying degrees, but none have moved yet to the Romney column. OH is still right outside the battleground boundary, at Obama +5.09 and NV is still right within the +5 boundary, at Obama +4.93. Florida slipped slightly, down to Obama +2.30, but VA fell precipitously, from Obama +3.86 to Obama +2.29.

We will need polling material from more than just Right-Wing oriented pollsters to see how much of a Romney surge is real, but the one big take away from this is still OHIO. Even Rasmussen was unable to find enough respondents to put Romney over the top in the Buckeye State. That says something.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------


Nr. NATIONAL POLLING Date Sample MoE
Obama Romney Und/Oth Mar.

AVERAGE: N/A N/A N/A
48,79 45,26 5,95 3,54











RECENT:

















535 Ipsos/Reuters 05.10.12 1434 LV +/-3.0
46 44 10 2
534 Gallup * 05.10.12 3050 RV +/-2.0
50 45 5 5
533 Rasmussen 05.10.12 1500 LV +/-3.0
49 47 4 2
532 McLaughlin (R ) /Conservative.org 04.10.12 1000 LV +/-3.1
49 45 6 4
530 YouGov 04.10.12 1000 A +/-4.7
49 44 7 5
533 UPI / CVOTER 03.10.12 1000 RV +/-3.5
49 46 5 3
530 NPR / DemCorps (D) / Resurgent Republic (R) 03.10.12 800 LV +/-3.5
51 44 5 7
527 United Technologies / National Journal 02.10.12
+/-3.7
47 47 6 0
526 NBC / WSJ 02.10.12 832 LV +/-3.4
49 46 5 3
525 PPP (KOS / SEIU) 02.10.12 1100 RV +/-2.8
49 45 6 4
521 Merriman Group 01.10.12 981 RV +/-3.1
46 43 11 3
520 ARG 01.10.12 800 LV +/-3.6
49 46 5 3
519 ABC / WaPo 01.10.12 813 LV +/-4.0
49 47 4 2
517 CNN / ORC 01.10.12 783 LV +/-3.5
50 47 3 3
515 Zogby (online) 01.10.12 800 LV +/-3.5
49,7 41,1 9,2 8,6
514 Politico / GWU / Battleground 01.10.12 1000 RV +/-3.1
49 47 4 2

Here is the polling outlook for 2012-10-005: Obama +3.54% (-0.20 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-004Obama +3.74% (-0.05 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-003Obama +3.79% (+0.22 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-002Obama +3.57% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-001
Obama +4.11% (-0.52 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-030
Obama +4.63% (-0.10 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-029Obama +4.73% (+0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-028
Obama +4.53% (-0.21 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-027Obama +4.74% (+0.36 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-026Obama +4.38% (+0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-025Obama +4.19% (+0.23 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-024Obama +3.96% (+0.21 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-023Obama +3.75% (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-022Obama +3.69% (+0.18 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-021Obama +3.87% (+0.49 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-020Obama +3.38% (-0.22 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-019Obama +3.60% (-0.40 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for
 2012-09-018: Obama +4.00% (+0.07 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-017Obama +3.93% (+0.12 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-016Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-015Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-014Obama +3.81% 

Net shift since 09/14Obama -0.27%


This number (Average shift since 09/14Obama -0.27) shows stability in the polling now over 21 days. There was precipitous shift downward for Obama from 09/30 through 10/02 has stopped, for now. When you compare to the beginning of the tracking on 09/14, we are almost EXACTLY where we began. In other words, one sinus curve rise, then a sinus curve fall.

October 5th, 2012 marked exactly 32 days until the General Election.




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