05 October 2012

Battleground Report 10/04/2012 - T-minus 33 days

Thursday, October 4, 2012, was exactly 33 days before the General Election on November 6, 2012.

Here the corresponding BATTLEGROUND REPORT from 35 days before the GE 2008: BATTLEGROUND REPORT from 10/02/2008

Complete polling results for all states for 2012 to-date are here as an EXCEL table for 10/04/2012 in GOOGLE DOCS. All polls are hyperlinked.

The BATTLEGROUND REPORTS run also with the national numbers. Here is the NATIONAL POLLING OUTLOOK thread, with links to every day going back to September 13, 2012. Want to see the numbers for a specific day? Go to that link.

The LEGEND for the following EXCEL table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the table:
ABCDEEGHIJKLM
StateEV% of ECPolls04.10.1203.10.12Shift20082004SWING (H-I)End polling 2008Compare E – KCompare E – GE008
GA162,97%0 / 213,5013,500,005,2016,6011,403,859,658,30
NE50,93%0 / 1011,0011,000,0014,9333,2218,2919,00-8,00-3,93
IN112,04%1 / 38,008,000,00-1,0320,6821,711,186,829,03
AZ112,04%1 / 57,207,200,008,4810,471,994,432,77-1,28
TN30,56%0 / 17,007,000,0015,0614,270,7914,00-7,00-8,06
MT30,56%0 / 27,007,000,002,3820,5018,121,645,364,62
MO101,86%2 / 65,705,300,400,137,207,070,465,245,57
----
--------------------
NE-0210,19%0 / 10,000,000,001,2121,6920,484,00-4,00-1,21
NC152,79%1 / 90,440,440,000,3312,4312,760,62-0,180,11
FL295,39%1 / 132,602,600,002,815,017,821,790,81-0,21
CO91,67%1 / 52,703,19-0,498,954,6713,626,62-3,92-6,25
----
--------------------
USA538100,00%5 / 173,743,740,007,262,469,727,54-3,80-3,52
----
--------------------
IA61,12%1 / 83,983,980,009,530,6710,2012,75-8,77-5,55
VA132,42%1 / 73,863,860,006,308,2014,504,93-1,07-2,44
----
--------------------
NV61,12%1 / 85,195,190,0012,492,5915,086,83-1,64-7,30
OH183,35%1 / 115,555,550,004,582,116,692,303,250,97
NH40,74%1 / 76,506,500,009,611,378,2410,43-3,93-3,11
WI101,86%2 / 77,097,090,0013,900,3813,5211,34-4,25-6,81
MN101,86%0 / 38,008,000,0010,243,486,7611,34-3,34-2,24
PA203,72%2 / 108,798,790,0010,312,507,8111,34-2,55-1,52
OR71,30%0 / 19,009,000,0016,354,1612,1915,57-6,57-7,35
MI162,97%2 / 99,269,260,0016,443,4213,0214,44-5,18-7,18
NM50,93%1 / 59,869,860,0015,130,7915,929,260,60-5,27


As suspected, it was a light day for polling results: the pollsters mostly waited to go out into the field until after the first debate.

But there were polls for both Missouri (2 polls) and Colorado (1 poll). Interestingly enough, the Colorado and one of the Missouri polls were both combi polls.

In Missouri, one Rasmussen poll showed Romney +3. But the Wenzel Poll, normally published in World Net Daily, was paid for by the Todd Akin (R) campaign, showing him leading Claire McCaskill in the Senatorial and Romney +10 in the Presidential. This moved the statistic for Missouri up to Romney +5.70. 4 years ago, on 10/02/2008,  it was McCain +2.20 in MO. So, Romney is doing better here than McCain did in 208.

In Colorado, we saw a Debut: McLaughlin and Assoc. (R) put out it's first poll of 2012 for the "American Conservative Union", published at conservative.org. In Colorado, it shows Romney +4 and hitting the 50 mark. But the poll also put out national numbers (Obama +4, 49/47) and it also polled people as to whether they thought polling in 2012 is "swewed". This moved Colorado's margin closer to the tossups, to Obama +2.704 years ago, on 10/02/2008,  it was Obama +3.30, so Obama is doing slightly worse in CO right now than in 2008.

This is a pretty uniform shift of around 0.50 for both states toward Gov. Romney.

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In non-battleground polling, we received the first ever Hawaii poll, from the Merriman group, showing Obama up by +32. Obama won in 2008 by a massive +45.26% margin, second only to his margin in DC, so it would look like this polling is way under his margin. However, in 2008, there was also only one poll of the Aloha State, and it showed Obama +36. He outperformed is polling then and will likely do so again in 2012. As in 2008, DC, HI and HI will likely be Obama's top three "states".

Polls also came in from Connecticut and Massachusetts. The Connecticut poll, from Quinnipiac, shows Obama +12, still way under his 2008 margin. But this Qunnipiac is an improvement of 5 margin points over the last Qpac, which was on 08/28. The current average in CT is Obama +15.00.

In Massachusetts, a Mass Insight poll came in, showing Obama +26. His average is currently +23.00 in the Bay State, just slightly under his 2008 margin.

The non-battleground polling is showing no weaking in the Obama states - except for the consistently weaker polling for the President in Connecticut. There, he has lost measurable support, will still win the state with a double-digit landslide, but this time in the teens instead of in the twenties, most likely.

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Facit: President Obama is still on decidedly and measurably better footing right now than he was exactly four years ago against John McCain. The battlegrounds are still pretty much where they were from Monday-Wednesday.

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