04 October 2012

Battleground Report 10/03/2012 - T-minus 34 days

Wednesday, October 3, 2012, was exactly 34 days before the General Election on November 6, 2012.

Here the corresponding BATTLEGROUND REPORT from 35 days before the GE 2008: BATTLEGROUND REPORT from 10/01/2008
Complete polling results for all states for 2012 to-date are here as an EXCEL table for 10/03/2012 in GOOGLE DOCS. All polls are hyperlinked.

The BATTLEGROUND REPORTS run also with the national numbers. Here is the NATIONAL POLLING OUTLOOK thread, with links to every day going back to September 13, 2012. Want to see the numbers for a specific day? Go to that link.

The LEGEND for the following EXCEL table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the table:
ABCDEEGHIJKLM
StateEV% of ECPolls03.10.1202.10.12Shift20082004SWING (H-I)End polling 2008Compare E – KCompare E – GE008
GA162,97%0 / 213,5013,500,005,2016,6011,403,859,658,30
NE50,93%0 / 1011,0011,000,0014,9333,2218,2919,00-8,00-3,93
IN112,04%1 / 38,008,000,00-1,0320,6821,711,186,829,03
AZ112,04%1 / 57,206,750,458,4810,471,994,432,77-1,28
TN30,56%0 / 17,007,000,0015,0614,270,7914,00-7,00-8,06
MT30,56%0 / 27,007,000,002,3820,5018,121,645,364,62
MO101,86%1 / 45,305,90-0,600,137,207,070,464,845,17
----
--------------------
NE-0210,19%0 / 10,000,000,001,2121,6920,484,00-4,00-1,21
NC152,79%1 / 90,441,00-0,560,3312,4312,760,62-0,180,11
FL295,39%1 / 132,602,91-0,312,815,017,821,790,81-0,21
CO91,67%1 / 83,193,190,008,954,6713,626,62-3,43-5,76
----
--------------------
USA538100,00%4 / 163,743,570,177,262,469,727,54-3,80-3,52
----
--------------------
IA61,12%1 / 83,983,980,009,530,6710,2012,75-8,77-5,55
VA132,42%1 / 73,864,68-0,826,308,2014,504,93-1,07-2,44
----
--------------------
NV61,12%1 / 85,195,190,0012,492,5915,086,83-1,64-7,30
OH183,35%1 / 115,555,450,104,582,116,692,303,250,97
NH40,74%1 / 76,506,500,009,611,378,2410,43-3,93-3,11
WI101,86%2 / 77,096,190,9013,900,3813,5211,34-4,25-6,81
MN101,86%0 / 38,008,000,0010,243,486,7611,34-3,34-2,24
PA203,72%2 / 108,798,790,0010,312,507,8111,34-2,55-1,52
OR71,30%0 / 19,009,000,0016,354,1612,1915,57-6,57-7,35
MI162,97%2 / 99,269,260,0016,443,4213,0214,44-5,18-7,18
NM50,93%1 / 59,869,860,0015,130,7915,929,260,60-5,27


On 10/03/2012, 11 polls came in for 10 states, 7 of which are on the current battleground list, but only three of which are battlegrounds.

The newest Rasmussen poll for North Carolina, showing Romney +4, moved the state downward to Obama +0.44. Practically an absolute tie and doubtless the closest state of 2012. On 10/01/2008, McCain was leading here by +1.70.

The newest NBC /WSJ /Marist poll of Florida shows Obama +1, therefore tightening the statistic down to Obama +2.60On 10/01/2008, Obama was leading here by +3.00.

Marist also put out a poll for Virginia, showing Obama +2, tightening that statistic almost 1% down to Obama +3.86On 10/01/2008, Obama was leading here by  +3.40.

However, in Ohio, the Marist poll showed Obama +8, yet another very large number for the President in the Buckeye state. This moves Ohio up to Obama +5.55. Ohio has been and remains the largest warning sign for the Romney campaign. On 10/01/2008, Obama was leading here by only +0.30.

The newest Marquette Poll for Wisconsin shows Obama +11 and now the President's average has moved upward to Obama +7.09. Wisconsin was not on the battleground list at this point in time in 2008.

The newest PPP (D) poll of Missouri shows Romney +6, moving the average down to Romney +5.30On 10/01/2008, McCain was leading here by +2.70.

Likewise, PPP put out a new poll of Arizona, showing Romney +9, elevating the margin to Romney +7.20Wisconsin was not on the battleground list at this point in time in 2008.

So, there was mixed movement in polling, but the overall dynamic did not change at all. Obama is still leading in all of the battlegrounds.

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Polls also came in for 3 non-battleground states: Louisiana, New Jersey and Washington State. For the second day in a row, a poll came in for Louisiana after a year of no polling. This poll, a Zogby poll, shows Romney +13.20, closer to McCain's win from 2008. The newest Rutgers-Eagleton poll of New Jersey shows Obama +17 and moved the statistic for that state on par with his 2008 winning margin. But the biggest poll of the day was a SUSA poll from Washington State, showing Obama +20. I did some research here:  this is the largest polling margin that I could find for any presidential candidate in this state since Nixon in 1972..

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Facit:  President Obama is still on decidedly and measurably better footing right now than he was exactly four years ago against John McCain.

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