03 October 2012

Battleground Report 10/02/2012 - T-minus 35 days

Tuesday, October 2, 2012, was exactly 35 days before the General Election on November 6, 2012.

Here the corresponding BATTLEGROUND REPORT from 35 days before the GE 2008: BATTLEGROUND REPORT from 09/30/2008
Complete polling results for all states for 2012 to-date are here as an EXCEL table in GOOGLE DOCS. All polls are hyperlinked.

The BATTLEGROUND REPORTS run also with the national numbers. Here is the NATIONAL POLLING OUTLOOK thread, with links to every day going back to September 13, 2012. Want to see the numbers for a specific day? Go to that link.

The LEGEND for the following EXCEL table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the table:

ABCDEEGHIJKLM
StateEV% of ECPolls02.10.1201.10.12Shift20082004SWING (H-I)End polling 2008Compare E – KCompare E – GE008
GA162,97%0 / 213,5013,500,005,2016,6011,403,859,658,30
NE50,93%0 / 1011,0011,000,0014,9333,2218,2919,00-8,00-3,93
IN112,04%1 / 38,008,000,00-1,0320,6821,711,186,829,03
TN30,56%0 / 17,007,000,0015,0614,270,7914,00-7,00-8,06
MT30,56%0 / 27,007,000,002,3820,5018,121,645,364,62
AZ112,04%1 / 46,756,750,008,4810,471,994,432,32-1,73
MO101,86%1 / 45,909,12-3,220,137,207,070,465,445,77
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NE-0210,19%0 / 10,000,000,001,2121,6920,484,00-4,00-1,21
NC152,79%1 / 81,000,860,140,3312,4312,760,620,380,67
FL295,39%1 / 132,912,900,012,815,017,821,791,120,10
CO91,67%1 / 83,193,190,008,954,6713,626,62-3,43-5,76
----
--------------------
USA538100,00%5 / 153,574,55-0,987,262,469,727,54-3,97-3,69
----
--------------------
IA61,12%1 / 83,983,980,009,530,6710,2012,75-8,77-5,55
VA132,42%1 / 104,684,310,376,308,2014,504,93-0,25-1,62
----
--------------------
NV61,12%1 / 85,194,430,7612,492,5915,086,83-1,64-7,30
OH183,35%2 / 115,455,450,004,582,116,692,303,150,87
WI101,86%0 / 86,196,190,0013,900,3813,5211,34-5,15-7,71
NH40,74%1 / 76,506,330,179,611,378,2410,43-3,93-3,11
MN101,86%0 / 38,008,000,0010,243,486,7611,34-3,34-2,24
PA203,72%2 / 108,798,790,0010,312,507,8111,34-2,55-1,52
OR71,30%0 / 19,009,000,0016,354,1612,1915,57-6,57-7,35
MI162,97%2 / 99,269,260,0016,443,4213,0214,44-5,18-7,18
NM50,93%1 / 59,869,580,2815,130,7915,929,260,60-5,27

7 of the states in the Battleground table were polled: MO, NC, FL, VA, NV, NH and NM.

For the third day in a row, a poll has come through that has changed things and caught people's attention: 

-On Sunday, it was the Columbus Dispatch Poll for Ohio (Obama +9) - for which I wrote a thread HERE and HERE.

-On Monday, it was the WMUR / NRH poll for New Hampshire (Obama +15), which was discussed in length on Monday's BATTLEGROUND REPORT.


-On Tuesday, it was the WAA (R) poll of Nevada (Obama +10.5), which moved the President's average in Nevada to +5.19%, and as was the case with Ohio just some short days ago, Nevada has moved just slightly outside of the official battleground boundary of +5. CNN just put out a poll of LATINO voters, showing crushing margins for Obama, decidedly larger margins than even in 2008. You can read the results and a quick analysis HERE or HERE. There can be absolutely no doubt that an even larger shift toward the President and the Democratic Party among Latinos is a deciding factor in those key western battlegrounds of NV and CO. And not to forget, WAA is a decidely Right-leaning pollster.

FLASHBACK:  on this corresponding day in 2008, the Nevada average was: McCain +1.60. That is a +6.79 point shift TOWARD the President over this time-frame four years ago.

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Then there was the Roanoke poll of Virginia, showing the President up by +8 (49-41, including leaners) and moving the Old Dominion to +4.68 average. The last Roanoke taken of Virginia was in April and showed Romney up by +6. So, comparing Roanoke to Roanoke, that is a 14 point shift in margin toward the President since April. And this poll is the fourth poll in 2 weeks to show Obama at higher than +5 in VA.

FLASHBACK: on this corresponding day in 2008, the Nevada average was: Obama +2.40. That is a +2.28 point shift TOWARD the President over this time-frame four years ago.

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Another poll came in for New Hampshire, from PPP, comissioned by the "Progressive Change Campaign Committee", showing Obama at +7.5, and moving the state's average even farther away from the battleground +5 boundary, to +6.50. And that average is very, very likely to increase because, of the 7 polls in the mix, the last 6 were all for Obama and the last poll in the mix, Rasmussen (Romney +3) will fall out of the statistic the next time a New Hampshire poll comes in. Only if a poll showing a Romney lead of +3 or more comes in would this average fall in the next days.

FLASHBACK: on this corresponding day in 2008, the Nevada average was: Obama +1.30. That is a +6.79 point shift TOWARD the President over this time-frame four years ago.

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SUSA put out a new poll for North Carolina, showing the race at Obama +2 (49-47). That barely moved the needle in the average, from Obama +0.83 to Obama +1.00. North Carolina remains a tossup.

FLASHBACK:  on this corresponding day in 2008, the North Carolina average was: McCain +1.30. That is a +2.30 point shift TOWARD the President over this time-frame four years ago. But this is happening at a time when early voting has started in the Tarheel state.

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Florida is a funny example: the newest Suffolk poll shows Obama +3, but because there are 13 polls in the mix, the needle budged only 0.01%, from Obama +2.90 to Obama +2.91. Now, THAT is statistically insignificant! As of Tuesday, there have been 57 polls in the Sunshine State in 2012, breaking all records from 2008 (Pennsylvania was the most polled state of that year).

FLASHBACK:  on this corresponding day in 2008, the Florida average was: McCain +0.60. That is a +3.51 point shift TOWARD the President over this time-frame four years ago. 

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A WAA (R) poll was released for Missouri showing Romney up by +3. This is a much smaller lead than the other three polls in the mix. This reduced the margin average in MO to Romney +5.90, thus moving it down the list and placing it just outside the +5 battleground boundary. Now, virtually everyone is convinced that Romney, at the end of the day, will carry the "Show-me" state, and so am I. And the Obama campaign is not investing in advertising in MO, either, which tells me that they don't think they can win it, either. That being said, please note that the following states in the current battleground list have Obama margin averages LARGER than Romney's current average: WI, NH, (MN), PA (OR), MI, NM. So, logically, if people are sure that Romney is going to win MO, then they should be sure that Obama will win all of these states, right? Well, not in a partisan world. Plus, one major shift toward Romney and some of these current Obama states can end up in the battlegrounds very fast. For this very reason, it is good to keep states with larger than +5 margins in the Battleground table for a while, for if they fall into the battlegrounds, there is lots of data to reference to.

There was yet another landslide poll for Obama in New Mexico, from Rasmusssen: Obama +11. That moved the state's average to Obama +9.86. See again: the Latino Poll I mentioned by Nevada.

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Outside of the Battlegrounds (and perceived Battlegrounds), there were three other polls:

-In Texas, a LYCEUM poll came through showing Romney at a whopping +19 in the Lone Star State. Of the 7 polls conducted in TX in this year, that is the second highest margin, and it moved his polling average from +13 to Romney +15, which is above the end-polling average from 2008 and also above McCain's +11.86 winning margin there. In 2008, there were 17 polls total for Texas, and the only Lyceum poll pubished in that year was in June, showing McCain at +5. There is no practical way to compare that Lyceum poll to this one, because the time-frames are so apart from each other. There were, however, 4 solid polls in the end polling in 2008 and I suspect that by November 6th, we will also have at least 4 fresh polls of TX in the end-polling this time around. Texas could very well be a state where Romney does decidedly better in 2012 than McCain did in 2012, in spite of the Latino voting statistics. This is important for him if he wants to take a lead in the popular vote.

-two polls came in of states not yet polled in 2012:

Rhode Island, from Fleming and Associates, showing Obama +24.2. This is no surprise, since RI was Obama's 4th strongest state in 2008: he won there with +27.81%. So, you could say that the current polling is under his 2008 win, but not under his 2008 polling: there were 9 total polls for the Ocean State in that year, and there were 4 polls in the end-mix, showing Obama +18.10. So, he vastly outperformed his polling in this state. An Obama +24.2 from just one poll tells me that he is just as solid here as he was then. Also, the VR stats from RI make is practically impossible for a Republican to win: just 10.76% of voters there are Republicans. RI is the "Democrat's Wyoming", so to speak.

Where the poll from Rhode Island did not surprise me, the poll from Louisiana did. The only poll of this state for 2012 thus far (there was, however, one in 2011), from "Southern Media and Opinion Research", shows the race at Romney +6 (46 to 39). That Romney is going to win this state, I have no doubt, but this margin is way under McCains +18.63% margin from 2008 and also under the end-polling average for that year: +10.43There were 13 polls of LA in 2008, and Southern Media put out two polls, one in April 08, the other in July 08, showing McCain +11 and +16, respectively. A +6 here is really, really low. Technically, this state could go on the battleground list - its polling value is close to Missouri.  And it would be easy to call this poll an outlier, were it not for the last two polls in Tennessee, both showing Romney at +7 in a state that McCain won by a large landslide. And South Carolina, also a deep southern state that McCain won by around +9, has not been polled since January...  I would really like to see much more polling from all the Gulf-states and Atlantic Seaboard states.

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Facit: in all of the states on the battleground list, of the states that got new polls yesterday, they all moved toward the BLUE in value: Romney's margin in MO shrunk, while Obamas margins all increased. The daily state numbers confirm that President Obama is still on decidedly and measurably better footing right now than he was exactly four years ago against John McCain.

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