02 October 2012

Battleground Report 10/01/2012 - T-minus 36 days

Monday, October 1, 2012, was exactly 36 days before the General Election on November 6, 2012.

Here the corresponding BATTLEGROUND REPORT from 36 days before the GE 2008: BATTLEGROUND REPORT from 09/29/2008
complete polling results for 2012 to-date here as an EXCEL table in GOOGLE DOCS. All polls are hyperlinked.

The BATTLEGROUND REPORTS run also with the national numbers. Here is the NATIONAL POLLING OUTLOOK thread, with links to every day going back to September 13, 2012. Want to see the numbers for a specific day? Go to that link.

The LEGEND for the following EXCEL table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the table:

StateEV% of ECPolls01.10.1230.09.12Shift20082004SWING (H-I)End polling 2008Compare E – KCompare E – GE008
GA162,97%0 / 213,5013,500,005,2016,6011,403,859,658,30
NE50,93%0 / 1011,0011,000,0014,9333,2218,2919,00-8,00-3,93
MO101,86%0 / 49,129,120,000,137,207,070,468,668,99
IN112,04%1 / 38,008,000,00-1,0320,6821,711,186,829,03
TN30,56%0 / 17,007,000,0015,0614,270,7914,00-7,00-8,06
MT30,56%0 / 27,007,000,002,3820,5018,121,645,364,62
AZ112,04%1 / 46,756,750,008,4810,471,994,432,32-1,73
NE-0210,19%0 / 10,000,000,001,2121,6920,484,00-4,00-1,21
NC152,79%1 / 70,861,83-0,970,3312,4312,760,620,240,53
FL295,39%1 / 122,902,350,552,815,017,821,791,110,09
CO91,67%1 / 83,193,080,118,954,6713,626,62-3,43-5,76
IA61,12%1 / 83,984,00-0,029,530,6710,2012,75-8,77-5,55
VA132,42%2 / 134,314,310,006,308,2014,504,93-0,62-1,99
NV61,12%1 / 74,434,430,0012,492,5915,086,83-2,40-8,06
USA538100,00%7 / 124,554,63-0,087,262,469,727,54-2,99-2,71
OH183,35%2 / 115,455,450,004,582,116,692,303,150,87
WI101,86%0 / 86,196,190,0013,900,3813,5211,34-5,15-7,71
NH40,74%1 / 66,334,601,739,611,378,2410,43-4,10-3,28
MN101,86%0 / 38,008,000,0010,243,486,7611,34-3,34-2,24
PA203,72%2 / 108,798,790,0010,312,507,8111,34-2,55-1,52
OR71,30%0 / 19,009,000,0016,354,1612,1915,57-6,57-7,35
MI162,97%2 / 99,268,740,5216,443,4213,0214,44-5,18-7,18
NM50,93%1 / 49,589,330,2515,130,7915,929,260,32-5,55

I am pressed for time today, so I will keep it brief:

-changes in 4 Battleground states truly between +0 and +5: NC, FL, CO and IA

-massive change in 1 Battleground state, NH, that was technically within the +5 on 10/30, and moved to +6.33 on 10/01.

-changes in 2 states listed as potentional battlegrounds, both moving father and farther away from the +5 boundary: MI, NM. Both of those states have crossed over OR, which has never been considered a battleground in this year, not even once.

-no new developments in VA, NV, OH or PA. But they all saw lots of polling in the days before.

The big news of the day was the WMUR / UNH  poll of New Hampshire, showing the President at a very large +15 over Governor Romney. This is big news because the last polls of the Granite State from this pollster showed Obama at +5 (09/13), +3 (08/13) and +4 (07/17). When comparing this pollster to itself, that is a +10 jump over it's poll results from 09/13. That is huge. If you click at the link, the WHY of this is pretty well explained. This is the largest poll result for any candidate in NH, either in 2011 or 2012. Remember, this state was a state where Romney was constantly ahead in 2011, but of now 21 polls of NH in 2012, Obama has won 20. I am 100% sure that this poll will spur other pollsters on to take a good hard look at NH in the next days. BTW, the most recent poll of Maine (not a battleground), from Critical Insights, shows Obama +16.

The other big news of the day was Obama's slippage in North Carolina, due to an ARG poll showing Governor Romney up by +4. One week ago, it was Obama +0.83. As of 10/01, it is Obama +0.83. As PPP has noted, this race the second tightest of 2008 and looks very much to become the tightest of 2012. When all is said and done, however, knowing the electoral history of this state and seeing the VR stats, the slight advantage is Romney's  - unless the national race really opens up.

You can compare these numbers to 2008 using the link at the top of the article.

Complete polling results for 2012 to-date here as an EXCEL table in GOOGLE DOCS. All polls are hyperlinked.


Facit: in the BATTLEGROUNDS, President Obama is on decidedly and measurably better footing right now than he was exactly four years ago against John McCain. If these margin shifts continue as they just did in NH, MI and NM, to name just three states, then a number of states will be leaving the battleground list in the next three weeks.

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