21 October 2012

Another meaning of 47%

Time for a little bit of opinion.

Having crunched the numbers every day now, I can see a surge when it is coming. Romney has been surging.

The question is: how far will he surge?

The second question is: will he break Obama's firewall that is evident in the all-important state of Ohio?

My gut tells me that this really is a 47%-47%-2% race, with just 2% or less undecided, and those undecideds are waiting to see how Debate no. 3 goes.

Traditionally, the battlegrounds tend to fall mostly for one candidate, but this year really looks different, but perhaps because different people, and some hack pollsters, are trying to redefine "battleground".

Can Romney win in MI? Possible, but highly unlikely.
Can Obama win in AZ? Possible, but higly unlikely.

It looks more and more like NC will return to the GOP fold. 

VA and FL are just too close to call, ditto NH.

But OH, IA and NV - they are all definitely showing a resilient Obama edge, no matter how lean.

I have no doubt that we will literally be inundated with polling probably around Thursday following the debate. Of course, the fine english art is to divine, even when recording all the numbers, where the hacksters are and where not.

The third question is: if Gallup continues to show Romney +6 on November 5th and Obama wins by +3, does Gallup (deservedly) go out of business?

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