27 October 2012

46 different 269-269 Electoral College scenarios

In March of 2011, 19 months ago, I started toying with the idea of how many possible permutations for a 269-269 tie there could be, and in just a couple of hours, I came up with 46 permutations. Now, a couple of these are unrealistic in 2012, as Georgia does not look to become a battleground in any way, but looking at the battlegrounds that are there, there are indeed a number of ways to land at 269-269 in the Electoral College. And in 2011, I was already considering Wisconsin as a battleground possibility, due to the bitter nature of the recall elections.

I am not saying this is going to happen, in fact, I do not believe it will happen. But just in case, here are some possibilities, in no specific order, so I am not placing priority over one scenario or another. And these permutations treat states totally independent from each other, when in reality, the battlegrounds tells to fall a a majority for one candidate on election night.

One more thing: to save time, I just colored in the blue states. The red states are obviously the ones that are not blue. This was not done to slight Republicans, it was done to save time.

So, here they are. In an new thread, I will then point out the most likely permutations I see.

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