05 October 2012

2012-10-004 National Polling Outlook

Nr.NATIONAL POLLINGDateSampleMoE
ObamaRomneyUnd/OthMar.

AVERAGE:N/AN/AN/A
48,8145,066,133,74











RECENT:

















532McLaughlin (R ) /Conservative.org04.10.121000 LV+/-3.1
494564
531Ipsos/Reuters04.10.12536 RV+/-4.8
484395
530YouGov04.10.121000 A+/-4.7
494475
529Gallup *04.10.123050 RV+/-2.0
494564
528Rasmussen04.10.121500 LV+/-3.0
494742
533UPI / CVOTER03.10.121000 RV+/-3.5
494653
530NPR / DemCorps (D) / Resurgent Republic (R)03.10.12800 LV+/-3.5
514457
527United Technologies / National Journal02.10.12
+/-3.7
474760
526NBC / WSJ02.10.12832 LV+/-3.4
494653
525PPP (KOS / SEIU)02.10.121100 RV+/-2.8
494564
521Merriman Group01.10.12981 RV+/-3.1
4643113
520ARG01.10.12800 LV+/-3.6
494653
519ABC / WaPo01.10.12813 LV+/-4.0
494742
517CNN / ORC01.10.12783 LV+/-3.5
504733
515Zogby (online)01.10.12800 LV+/-3.5
49,741,19,28,6
514Politico / GWU / Battleground01.10.121000 RV+/-3.1
494742
505Fox News27.09.121092 LV+/-3.0
484395


There were 5 new polls that came in on 10/04 and 4 that left the statistic (all repeaters), making for a rich polling gene pool of 17 polls. The needle between 10/03 and 10/04 just barely shifted (-0.05). The Ipsos/Reuters poll was conducted entirely AFTER the first debate, but it is the only such one in the statistic, and still shows Obama +5. There is a premiere national poll, introduced for the first time, by conservative.org, for the "American Conservative Union", and even it shows Obama +4. This poll also did an oversample poll of Colorado and also did polling on the question as to whether polls are skewed are not. The results are inside the .pdf link. Go read them.

Here IS the polling outlook for 2012-10-004: Obama +3.74% (-0.05 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-003Obama +3.79% (+0.22 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-002Obama +3.57% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-001
Obama +4.11% (-0.52 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-030
Obama +4.63% (-0.10 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-029Obama +4.73% (+0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-028
Obama +4.53% (-0.21 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-027Obama +4.74% (+0.36 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-026Obama +4.38% (+0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-025Obama +4.19% (+0.23 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-024Obama +3.96% (+0.21 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-023Obama +3.75% (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-022Obama +3.69% (+0.18 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-021Obama +3.87% (+0.49 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-020Obama +3.38% (-0.22 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-019Obama +3.60% (-0.40 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for
 2012-09-018: Obama +4.00% (+0.07 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-017Obama +3.93% (+0.12 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-016Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-015Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-014Obama +3.81% 

Net shift since 09/14Obama -0.07%

This number (Average shift since 09/14Obama -0.07) shows stability in the polling now over 18 days. There was precipitous shift downward for Obama from 09/30 through 10/02 has stopped, for now. When you compare to the beginning of the tracking on 09/14, we are almost EXACTLY where we began. In other words, one sinus curve rise, then a sinus curve fall.

October 4th, 2012, marked exactly 33 days until the General Election.

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