13 September 2012

Next Electoral Landscape + Battleground reports

So, the conventions are over with, as of tomorrow, we should have the final statistical data on the Democratic Convention bounce, since Gallup does 7-day rolling polls and this means that tomorrow will include- for the first time, polling reaction to President Obama's speech as well. The gallup rolling poll from Wednesday, September 11 was the first rolling polling to include Bill Clinton's speech from September 5th, maybe, but I would bet that most of the polling interviews came before his speech. This means that the Thursday (today) and Friday Gallups should show a continued bounce for the President. And the weekend Gallups will then reflect the weekend bounce that also happens. Right now, Gallup has Obama at +7. I see that that can easily go to +9.

But it looks, on balance, that Romney got an average of about +1.4% bounce and Obama +5.1% bounce. If  Obama can hold some of that bounce, then with such a small part of the electorate still to move, Obama goes into the final six weeks of the 2012 general election campaign with a slight lead nationally, very reminiscent of George W. Bush's lead in 2004 at this same time. Romney was already at a disadvantage by holding his convention before the President's and a second disadvantage since there was no real time between to let a potential Romney bounce sink in. To neutralize this, the Republicans could have chosen to have their convention one week earlier and this probably would have been more to their advantage, seeing as Romney was clearly going to be their nominee and Paul Ryan was already tapped to be his running mate.

With that in mind, and with polling picking up the pace now, I will publish the 4th electoral landscape for 2012 at the weekend and then starting on Monday, September 17th, nightly battleground reports, just as I did in 2008.

I will also be noting any special remarks brought out by pollsters when they release their polling and will be keeping a close eye on all demographic groups.

These reports will be published at my politics blog on blogspot and also in the electoral statistics section at politicalhotwire.com.

So, the sprint to the finish line is now on!

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