28 September 2012

Battleground Report 09/27/2012 - T-minus 40 days

Thursday, September 27, 2012, was exactly 40 days before the General Election on November 6, 2012.

Here the corresponding BATTLEGROUND REPORT from 40 days before the GE 2008: BATTLEGROUND REPORT from 09/25/2008.

The BATTLEGROUND REPORTS run also with the national numbers. Here is the NATIONAL POLLING OUTLOOK thread, with links to every day going back to September 13, 2012. Want to see the numbers for a specific day? Go to that link.

All of the 2012 polling for all states, including national figures, including specialty polls, including the newly published RED STATE REPORT and of course, including the BATTLEGROUND STATE REPORT, is HERE at GoogleDocs.

The LEGEND for the following EXCEL table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the table:

StateEV% of ECPolls27.09.1226.09.12Shift20082004SWING (H-I)End polling 2008Compare E – KCompare E – GE008
GA162,97%0 / 213,5013,500,005,2016,6011,403,859,658,30
NE50,93%0 / 1011,0011,000,0014,9333,2218,2919,00-8,00-3,93
MO101,86%0 / 49,129,120,000,137,207,070,468,668,99
IN112,04%1 / 38,006,002,00-1,0320,6821,711,186,829,03
AZ112,04%1 / 37,677,330,348,4810,471,994,433,24-0,81
TN30,56%0 / 17,007,000,0015,0614,270,7914,00-7,00-8,06
MT30,56%0 / 27,007,000,002,3820,5018,121,645,364,62
NE-0210,19%0 / 10,000,000,001,2121,6920,484,00-4,00-1,21
NC152,79%1 / 60,830,600,230,3312,4312,760,620,210,50
FL295,39%0 / 162,352,350,002,815,017,821,790,56-0,46
CO91,67%0 / 93,083,080,008,954,6713,626,62-3,54-5,87
NH40,74%2 / 54,002,751,259,611,378,2410,43-6,43-5,61
IA61,12%1 / 64,005,00-1,009,530,6710,2012,75-8,75-5,53
VA132,42%1 / 94,093,450,646,308,2014,504,93-0,84-2,21
NV61,12%1 / 74,434,83-0,4012,492,5915,086,83-2,40-8,06
OH183,35%0 / 114,554,550,004,582,116,692,302,25-0,03
USA538100,00%4 / 144,744,380,367,262,469,727,54-2,80-2,52
WI101,86%0 / 86,196,190,0013,900,3813,5211,34-5,15-7,71
MN101,86%0 / 38,008,000,0010,243,486,7611,34-3,34-2,24
MI162,97%0 / 78,618,610,0016,443,4213,0214,44-5,83-7,83
PA203,72%0 / 98,668,660,0010,312,507,8111,34-2,68-1,65
OR71,30%0 / 19,009,000,0016,354,1612,1915,57-6,57-7,35
NM50,93%0 / 39,339,330,0015,130,7915,929,260,07-5,80

In the battlegrounds and potential battlegrounds, polls came in for IN, AZ, NC, NH, IA, VA and NV.

The two "red states" moved farther away from the battlegrounds. In fact, IN is now a place above AZ in the rankings.

Of the other battlegrounds, three moved farther up in margin average for Obama: NC, NH and VA.
Two states moved slightly inward in the direction of tossup: IA and NV. I will be doing a special write-up on IOWA in this case, for what just happened, statistically speaking, is a good learning moment for all of us.

Vis-a-vis 09/26, no overall change in the table: there is technically only one tossup state (NC) and seven other states within the battleground zone. So, eight battlegrounds total.


On September 25, 2008, McCain was ahead in: WV (+5.30) NC (+2.70), IN (+2.20), NV (+1.70), OH (+1.40), VA (+1.30) and FL (+1.30). Obama was ahead in: NH (+0.70), MN (+4.00), WI (+4.10), PA (+4.10), CO (+5.40), MI (+5.60) and NM (+5.80). This means that on September 25, 2008, there 5 tossup states and 10 battleground states strictly within the +5 boundary.

Facit: in the BATTLEGROUNDS, President Obama is on decidedly and measurably better footing right now than he was exactly four years ago against John McCain and he increased his standing in 3 states over 09/26/2012, but decreased his standing in 2 states. Romney has increased his standing in two states. Compared to 2008, Obama is doing better in all but three states on the list: WV (which is  not even on the 2012 battleground list), IN and CO.

And once again, in spite of the national margin moving incrementally upward while Ohio had no new polling on 09/27, the margin average in OH is still the closest of all of these states to the national margin average. As goes Ohio, so goes the nation.

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