27 September 2012

Battleground Report 09/26/2012 - T-minus 41 days

Wednesday, September 26, 2012, was exactly 41 days before the General Election on November 6, 2012.

Here the corresponding BATTLEGROUND REPORT from 41 days before the GE 2008: BATTLEGROUND REPORT from 09/24/2008.

The BATTLEGROUND REPORTS run also with the national numbers. Here is the NATIONAL POLLING OUTLOOK thread, with links to every day going back to September 13, 2012. Want to see the numbers for a specific day? Go to that link.

The LEGEND for the following EXCEL table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the table:


ABCDEFGHIJKLM
StateEV% of ECPolls25.09.1225.09.12Shift20082004SWING (H-I)End polling 2008Compare E – KCompare E – GE008
GA162,97%0 / 213,5013,500,005,2016,6011,403,859,658,30
NE50,93%0 / 1011,0011,000,0014,9333,2218,2919,00-8,00-3,93
MO101,86%0 / 49,129,120,000,137,207,070,468,668,99
AZ112,04%0 / 37,337,330,008,4810,471,994,432,90-1,15
TN30,56%0 / 17,007,000,0015,0614,270,7914,00-7,00-8,06
MT30,56%0 / 27,007,000,002,3820,5018,121,645,364,62
IN112,04%0 / 26,006,000,00-1,0320,6821,711,184,827,03
----
--------------------
NE-0210,19%0 / 10,000,000,001,2121,6920,484,00-4,00-1,21
NC152,79%0 / 50,600,600,000,3312,4312,760,62-0,020,27
FL295,39%1 / 162,351,910,442,815,017,821,790,56-0,46
NH40,74%0 / 42,752,750,009,611,378,2410,43-7,68-6,86
CO91,67%1 / 93,082,780,308,954,6713,626,62-3,54-5,87
----
--------------------
USA538100,00%4 / 144,384,190,197,262,469,727,54-3,16-2,88
----
--------------------
VA132,42%0 / 103,453,450,006,308,2014,504,93-1,48-2,85
OH183,35%1 / 114,554,000,554,582,116,692,302,25-0,03
NV61,12%0 / 64,834,830,0012,492,5915,086,83-2,00-7,66
IA61,12%1 / 55,004,500,509,530,6710,2012,75-7,75-4,53
----
--------------------
WI101,86%0 / 86,196,190,0013,900,3813,5211,34-5,15-7,71
MN101,86%0 / 38,008,000,0010,243,486,7611,34-3,34-2,24
MI162,97%0 / 78,618,610,0016,443,4213,0214,44-5,83-7,83
PA203,72%2 / 98,668,130,5310,312,507,8111,34-2,68-1,65
OR71,30%0 / 19,009,000,0016,354,1612,1915,57-6,57-7,35
NM50,93%0 / 39,339,330,0015,130,7915,929,260,07-5,80


In the battlegrounds, polls came in for FL, IA, OH (and PA, though it is hardly a battleground).

The big news of the day was the Quinnipiac / CBS /NYT poll that showed Obama up +12 in PA (identical to Rasmussen's results from 09/21), up +10 in OH and up +9 in FL.

As a result, right now, FL has moved out of the tossups. There is only one tossup state right now: NC.

All four polled battlegrounds show an increased margin average. What is interesting is that the average is between ca. +0.4-0.5% for all four states: FL +0.44% margin increase, IA +0.50% margin increase, PA +0.53% margin increase an OH +0.55% margin increase. That is a very uniform increase across the board.

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On September 24, 2008, McCain was ahead in: IN, NV, FL, VA, NC, and OH, but Obama overtook a razor thin lead in HN. Some of these margins for both candidates were micro-margins. Obama was ahead by small margins in PA, MN, MI, WI and NM. In every one of those states, the President's margins are better today than they were exactly 4 years ago.

Facit: in the BATTLEGROUNDS, President Obama is on decidedly and measurably better footing right now than he was exactly four years ago against John McCain and he increased his standing in 4 states over 09/25/2012. And once again, the margin average in OH is very, very close to the national margin average. As goes Ohio, so goes the nation.

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