26 September 2012

Battleground Report 09/25/2012 - T-minus 42 days


As of today, September 25, 2012, there are now exactly 42 days (or 7 weeks) before the General Election on November 6, 2012.

On September 23, 2008, I began my own "BATTLEGROUND REPORT" series, exactly 42 days (or 7 weeks) before the General Election in that year. Here is the BATTLEGROUND REPORT from 09/23/2008. This makes for an excellent comparison every day until the election!

The BATTLEGROUND REPORTS run also with the national numbers. Here is the NATIONAL POLLING OUTLOOK thread, with links to every day going back to September 13, 2012. Want to see the numbers for a specific day? Go to that link.

Earlier today, I posted a pre-version of the BATTLEGROUND table (EXCEL format) with a large LEGEND to read. You can read that legend HERE. In fact, you need to in order to develop an "eye" for this table.

Usually, with a BATTLEGROUND REPORT, I will write something about each state, in relation to the values from the day before. Since today is Day-X, so to speak, I will not do this very much. In the table, there are comparison values to 09/24, but polls for only three battleground states (plus national polling) were released today: for FL, OH and NV.

The long and short of it: according to the numbers, there are only 2 tossup states at this moment, plus NE-02 (explanation under the table), and a grand total of 9 battleground states. You will see that more than 9 states are in the table. The reasons for this are in the legend link above (or HERE).

StateEV% of ECPolls25.09.1224.09.12Shift20082004SWING (H-I)End polling 2008Compare E – KCompare E – GE008
GA162,97%0 / 213,5013,500,005,2016,6011,403,859,658,30
NE50,93%0 / 1011,0011,000,0014,9333,2218,2919,00-8,00-3,93
MO101,86%0 / 49,129,120,000,137,207,070,468,668,99
AZ112,04%0 / 37,337,330,008,4810,471,994,432,90-1,15
TN30,56%0 / 17,007,000,0015,0614,270,7914,00-7,00-8,06
MT30,56%0 / 27,007,000,002,3820,5018,121,645,364,62
IN112,04%0 / 26,006,000,00-1,0320,6821,711,184,827,03
NE-0210,19%0 / 10,000,000,001,2121,6920,484,00-4,00-1,21
NC152,79%0 / 50,600,600,000,3312,4312,760,62-0,020,27
FL295,39%2 / 141,831,830,002,815,017,821,790,04-0,98
NH40,74%0 / 42,752,750,009,611,378,2410,43-7,68-6,86
CO91,67%0 / 92,782,780,008,954,6713,626,62-3,84-6,17
USA538100,00%0 / 174,023,960,067,262,469,727,54-3,52-3,24
VA132,42%0 / 103,453,450,006,308,2014,504,93-1,48-2,85
OH183,35%2 / 104,003,890,114,582,116,692,301,70-0,58
IA61,12%0 / 44,504,500,009,530,6710,2012,75-8,25-5,03
NV61,12%2 / 64,835,00-0,1712,492,5915,086,83-2,00-7,66
WI101,86%0 / 86,196,190,0013,900,3813,5211,34-5,15-7,71
MN101,86%0 / 38,008,000,0010,243,486,7611,34-3,34-2,24
PA203,72%0 / 78,138,130,0010,312,507,8111,34-3,21-2,18
MI162,97%0 / 78,618,610,0016,443,4213,0214,44-5,83-7,83
OR71,30%0 / 19,009,000,0016,354,1612,1915,57-6,57-7,35
NM50,93%0 / 39,339,330,0015,130,7915,929,260,07-5,80

Notice that the polling average for Ohio is practically identical to the national average. In column "E", the bolded numbers indicate a state where new polling came in.

Though 2 new polls came in for Florida and some fell out of the statistic, the margin did not budge.

The margin in NV actually decreased ever so slightly.

Why is NE-02 in the statistic?

A poll of Nebraska just came out, and it was also broken down by Congressional District. That poll of NE-02 shows an absolute tie. Four years ago, the one and only poll of NE-02 showed McCain ahead by +4, but rumours began to spread that NE-02 (Omaha) was much more competitive than people realized and the Obama team opened up 4 offices in Omaha. In a real surprise, Obama carried NE-02 in 2008. Since then, the NE GOP redistricted the state so as to make NE-02 much more GOP friendly, and yet, a poll shows a tie here. 

 44-44 is a low value-tie, there are too many undecideds. And since the Obama team has only one office up and running in Omaha, the general concensus is that no one is expecting him to retain the CD for the Democratic Party this time around. But since I promised to be tied to the numbers and the numbers only, then these numbers at this time make NE-02 officially a tossup. Wait and see if more data comes through.

How did some of these states look 42 days away from the election in 2008?

Well, if you go to the link at the top for the 2008 report:

Obama was at +2.70 in Colorado, almost identical to today (Obama +2.78). But that is pretty much where the similarities end. 

On September 23, 2008, McCain was ahead in: NH, IN, NV, FL, VA, NC, and OH. Some of these margins were micro-margins, but he was ahead. And Obama was ahead by small margins in PA, MN, MI, WI and NM. In every one of those states, the President's margins are better today than they were exactly 4 years ago.

Facit: in the BATTLEGROUNDS, President Obama is on decidedly and measurably better footing right now than he was exactly four years ago against John McCain.

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