15 September 2012

2012-09-013 National Polling Outlook

This series will run every day now through election day. It is simply the numbers and the average of the last polls, without repeaters:

Nr.NATIONAL POLLINGDateSampleMoE
ObamaRomneyUnd/OthMar.

AVERAGE:N/AN/AN/A
48,8544,766,244,09












RECENT:



















452Zogby (online)13.09.121014 LV+/-3.1
4842106
451Langer Research für Esquire &Yahoo13.09.121002 A+/-5.0
504654
450Democracy Corps13.09.121000 LV+/-3.5
504555
449Ipsos/Reuters13.09.12999 LV+/-2.7
4841117
448Gallup13.09.122200 RV+/-3.0
504466
447Rasmussen13.09.121500 LV+/-3.3
46477-1
451FOX News12.09.121056 LV+/-3.0
484365
450YouGov12.09.121000 A+/-4.2
494564
446ARG11.09.121200 LV+/-3.0
494653
445ABC / WaPo11.09.12826 RV+/-4.0
494831
444PPP (KOS / SEIU)11.09.12100 LV+/-3.1
504466
440C Voter International for UPI10.09.121003 DV+/-3.0
48,9045,705,403,20
439Investors Business Daily / TIPP10.09.12808 RV+/-3.5
4644102
438CNN / ORC10.09.12709 LV+/-3.5
524626












September '12



















455Ipsos/Reuters14.09.12999 LV+/-2.7





454Gallup14.09.122200 RV+/-3.0





453Rasmussen14.09.121500 LV+/-3.3





452Zogby (online)13.09.121014 LV+/-3.1
4842106
451Langer Research für Esquire &Yahoo13.09.121002 A+/-5.0
504654
450Democracy Corps13.09.121000 LV+/-3.5
504555
449Ipsos/Reuters13.09.12999 LV+/-2.7
4841117
448Gallup13.09.122200 RV+/-3.0
504466
447Rasmussen13.09.121500 LV+/-3.3
46477-1
451FOX News12.09.121056 LV+/-3.0
484365
450YouGov12.09.121000 A+/-4.2
494564
449Ipsos/Reuters12.09.121419 LV+/-2.7
484573
448Gallup12.09.122200 RV+/-3.0
504377
447Rasmussen12.09.121500 LV+/-3.3
464591
446ARG11.09.121200 LV+/-3.0
494653
445ABC / WaPo11.09.12826 RV+/-4.0
494831
444PPP (KOS / SEIU)11.09.12100 LV+/-3.1
504466
443Ipsos/Reuters11.09.121419 LV+/-2.7
4643113
442Gallup11.09.122200 RV+/-3.0
504466
441Rasmussen11.09.121500 LV+/-3.3
484573
440C Voter International for UPI10.09.121003 DV+/-3.0
48,9045,705,403,20
439Investors Business Daily / TIPP10.09.12808 RV+/-3.5
4644102
438CNN / ORC10.09.12709 LV+/-3.5
524626
437Ipsos/Reuters10.09.121419 LV+/-2.7
484395
436Gallup10.09.122200 RV+/-3.0
494475
435Rasmussen10.09.121500 LV+/-3.3
504555
434Gallup09.09.122200 RV+/-3.0
494475
433Rasmussen09.09.121500 LV+/-3.3
494564
432Ipsos/Reuters09.09.121457 LV+/-2.7
4743104
431Gallup08.09.122200 RV+/-3.0
494564
430Rasmussen08.09.121500 LV+/-3.3
4644102
429Ipsos/Reuters07.09.121434 LV+/-2.7
4644102



Pease notice that of the last 28 national polls (including repeaters, or rolling polls), only one shows Romney ahead: Rasmussen from 13.09.12. Supporters on the right can make the claim that Rasmussen is a more recent poll than say, the 7-day rolling polling from Gallup, but Rasmussen itself is also a rolling poll. And IPSOS /Reuters has moved to nightly polls, which makes IT more recent than Rasmussen. Ditto Langer, ditto Dem Corps, etc.

Please also notice that in the table, I have already entered basis data for 14.09.12 for the three major pollsters who have been doing rolling polls for a while now - but the values are not yet filled in. I do this every morning my time and await the data as it comes in.

The mix of national polls (14 of them) in the current average range from pollsters who lean left to pollsters who lean right to pollsters with a mixed average.

The average for 13.09.12: Obama +4.09.

------------------------------------------------------------


Can we find a correlation in the national polling to a key battleground state? 

YES: Ohio


Nr.OHIODateSampleMoEObamaRomneyUndMar.

AVERAGEN/AN/AN/A48,4544,847,103,62




















35NBC / WSJ / Marist13.09.12979 LV+/-3.1504377
34ARG13.09.12600 LV+/-4.0484771
36Rasmussen13.09.12500 LV+/-4.5474671
35Gravis (R)10.09.121548 LV+/-3.047,2743,199,524,08
34PPP (D)09.09.121072 LV+/-3.0504555
33Gravis (R)05.09.121381 RV+/-2.943,7046,8010,50-3,10
32Gravis (R)29.08.121397 ?+/-3.145,2744,3910,340,88











The average of the last 5 polls, all within 2 weeks (no repeaters):

Obama +3.64

Ohio has tended to hug closely to the national average in many elections. It has tended to come closer to Republican winning averages than to Democratic winning averages, so the current average out of Ohio is is pretty much in line.

Also very interesting to note is how FOX NEWS itself played down it's own FOX NEWS poll, which currently shows the President up by 5 points over Mitt Romney.

A video segment from Lawrence McDonnell from NBC over this phenomenon can be seen HERE. Usually, news networks make a big deal out of their own polls, for it is indeed breaking news and should put them (temporarily) ahead of the pack.

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