23 September 2012

09/21 was also a wild day in polls... YouGov polls

Over 09/20 and 09/21, a polling firm out of England called YouGov put out presidential preference polls from 27 states of our Union. The firm does online polling.

Because my gut tells me that a.) this is just the first batch, they will be back with these same states next month and b.) they will probably also do the other 23 states still in this month

I decided to not move up the next polling convergence. But it is interesting to look at their numbers, for a number of reasons:

1.) They polled a number of core states that haven't been polled in a while, so it was good to get a least one "pulse" of certain states.

2.) They are slipping into the role that SUSA assumed in 2008, which SUSA put out two "SUSA 50" polls (March, October 2008), to give a view of the entire electoral landscape all at once.

YouGov has been putting out national presidential preference polls for months now, but there methodology at that time was simply "adults". Since then, they have moved to a RV pool of polling data and also included LV numbers as well.

With very few exceptions, YouGov's numbers from 09/20 and 09/21 are unbelievably in line with what we have already seen this year. The one example that sticks out some is Nevada.

So, here is a quick overview of all 27 YouGov polls, so you can see the similarities and differences for yourselves:



14Purple Strategies21.09.12600 LV+/-4.0454873
13YouGov21.09.12674 RV+/-4.74151810
12PPP (D) / LCV11.09.12993 LV+/-3.1445339

The YouGov margin is in line with PPP, much larger than Purple Poll. The current AZ margin is very close to John McCain's winning margin of +8.48% from 2008.



19YouGov21.09.121456 RV+/-3.15638618
18PPIC20.09.122003 A+/-3.95339814
17Field19.09.12891 LV+/-3.45834824
16CBRT / Pepperdine13.09.12900 LV?+/-4.055,4033,4011,2022,00
15SUSA12.09.12524 LV+/-4.35735822

The YouGov margin for CA is exactly between PPIC's +14 and Field's +24. The topline is also in the middle.



24Purple Strategies21.09.12600 LV+/-4.0484573
23NBC / WSJ / Marist20.09.12971 LV+/-3.1504555
22YouGov20.09.12753 RV+/-4.5494564
21Quinnipiac / NYT / CBS19.09.121497 LV+/-3.0484751
20Rasmussen18.09.12500 LV+/-4.545478-2
19Denver Post / SUSA14.09.12615 LV+/-4.0474671
18Project New America13.09.12503 LV+/-4.4494475
17ARG13.09.12600 LV+/-4.0494742

The YouGov margin for CO is right between Purple and NBC, but the third largest margin overall, after NBC and Project New America. Ditto for the topline figure.



9YouGov21.09.12705 RV+/-4.55339814
8U Conn / Courant20.09.12508 LV+/-4.453321521
7LCV / PPP (D)29.08.12881 LV+/-3.35340713

After a massive +21 from UConn just the day before (which is closer to Obama's 2008 margin), the YouGov +14 for CT looks alot like the PPP from 08/29, which is no longer in the average.



49Purple Strategies21.09.12600 LV+/-4.0474851
48YouGov20.09.121507 RV+/-3.6484662
47WAA (R)20.09.121230 LV+/-2.8249,4045,505,103,9
46Secure America Now (R)20.09.12600 LV+/-4.044,0047,708,30-3,7
45Fox News19.09.12829 LV+/-3.0494475
44Gravis Marketing (R)18.09.121728 LV+/-2.547,1047,705,20-0,6
43NBC News / WSJ / Marist13.09.12980 LV+/-3.1494475
42Concensus Communications (R)13.09.12606 LV+/-4.04242160
41McLaughlin (R) for AIF13.09.12

40Rasmussen13.09.12500 LV+/-4.5484662
39SUSA11.09.12596 LV+/-4.1484484

YouGov's +2 for FL is the 5th largest margin for Obama of 11 polls, right in the middle. The topline is under 3 polls and identical to two others.



8YouGov21.09.121102 RV+/-3.8445066
7Insider Advantage / FOX 5 *19.09.12483 RV
620/20 Insight / LLC22.08.121158 LV+/-2.9464953
5Insider Advantage24.05.12438 RV+/-5.04052812
4Landmark / Rosetta11.05.12600 A+/-4.040511011

Only the first two polls are in the average, I am including the others purely for comparison. The Romney +6 here from YouGov is lean compared to Insider Advantage, but larger than 20/20. McCain won GA by +5.20% in 2008. Still, this margin is one that is not well in line with the other statistics.



6YouGov21.09.121188 RV+/-3.35935624
5SIU / Simon14.09.121261 RV+/-2.7747,1033,8019,1013,30
4WAA10.09.121382 LV+/-2.85437917
3Crain's / Ipsos29.08.12600 RV+/-4.755291626
2Crain's / Ipsos26.07.12600 RV+/-4.751311820
1Chicago Tribune/WGN13.02.12600 RV+/-4.05635921

Again, only the top 3 polls are in the current average, but I am showing them all for comparison purposes. YouGov's +24 for Obama in his home state is the 2nd highest margin, and higher than the other two in the current average. But it is very close to his actual +25.11% winning margin from 2008, and therefore feasable.



5YouGov21.09.12707 RV+/-4.9445066
4GSG17.09.12800 LV+/-3.54147126
3Rasmussen05.08.12400 LV+/-5.035511416
2Rasmussen (online survey)25.05.12500 LV+/-4.54248106
1Howey Report / Depauw04.04.12503 LV+/-4.54049119

Conversely, the YouGov +6 for Romney in IN is exactly in line with 4 of the 5 polls from this state. The one poll that is so different is the RAS, taken right after Romney tapped Paul Ryan to be his running-mate. A +6 in IN for Romney is of course an improvement over 2008, where McCain lost the state to Obama by -1.03%, but it is still far below the GOP winning average in the Hoosier State.



11NBC / WSJ / Marist20.09.12898 LV+/-3.3504288
10YouGov20.09.12766 RV+/-4.24842106
9Rasmussen20.09.12500 LV+/-4.544479-3

YouGov shows +6 for Obama in Iowa, under NBC, but still vastly different than RAS. Battleground, as expected.



2YouGov21.09.12749 RV+/-4.25836622
1PPP (D)24.05.12852 LV+/-3.45835723

Only two polls of Maryland for all of 2012, the results are practically identical. YouGov shows it at +22.  Obama won Maryland by +25.44%, but his polling average for this state in 2008 was only +17.33% - he outperformed his average here in 2008.



20YouGov21.09.12899 RV+/-3.65637719
19UN Mass / Lowell / Herald19.09.12497 LV+/-5.55936523
18MassINC / WBUR19.09.12512 LV+/-4.459311028
17WNEC (WNEU)18.09.12444 LV+/-4.66038222
16PPP (D)18.09.12876 LV+/-3.35739618
15Suffolk17.09.12600 LV+/-4.06431733
14Kimball Consulting ( R )10.09.12756 LV+/-3.55640716

YouGov shows +23 in MA, the 4th highest of 7 margins in the average. Right in the middle.



30YouGov20.09.121114 LV
29Glengariff Group20.09.12600 LV+/-4.052,0037,8010,2014,2
28CNN / ORC19.09.12754 LV+/-3.5524448
27Marketing Research Group18.09.12600 LV+/-4.047,5042,3010,205,2
26Foster-McCollum /Baydoun14.09.121156 RE+/-2.8845,4943,6510,861,84
25EPIC / MRA12.09.12600 LV+/-4.047371610

Michigan margins all over the place, but YouGov's +9 is right in line with EPIC / MRA, which is the "gold standard" in MI. The YouGov is right between EPIC / MRA and CNN. 



8YouGov21.09.12873 RV+/-3.7504199
7PPP (D)13.09.12824 LV+/-3.4514457
6SUSA / KSTP10.09.12


YouGov's +9 is right in the middle of the three currently in the average for MN.



20YouGov21.09.12809 RV+/-4.0434986
19Gravis (R)19.09.121959 LV+/-3.539,3047,7013,008,40
18Wenzel / WND (R)13.09.12850 LV+/-3.333857519
17Rasmussen13.09.12500 LV+/-4.5454873

Missouri margins all over the place. YouGov's +6 is the third largest and closest to Bush's margin from 2004. Notice that RAS has the race closer than YouGov.



14YouGov20.09.12588 RV+/-5.2514368
13CNN / ORC20.09.12741 LV+/-3.5494653
12Rasmussen20.09.12500 LV+/-4.5474582

This value is the one that is really not like the rest out of all 27 polls from YouGov. The +8 in NV is really much larger than the surrounding polls.

Nr.NEW HAMPSHIREDateSampleMoEObamaRomneyUnd.Mar.


17YouGov20.09.12743 RV+/-3.94740137
16Rasmussen19.09.12500 LV+/-4.545487-3
15ARG18.09.12463 LV+/-3.2484662
14WMUR / UNH13.09.12592 LV+/-3.94540155

The YouGov +7 in NH is the largest, but does not stick out like it did in NV.

Nr.NEW JERSEYDateSampleMoEObamaRomneyUndMar.


17YouGov21.09.121143 RV+/-3.45339814
16Inquirer / Global (D) & National (R)15.09.12600 LV+/-4.051371214
15Farleigh-Dickinson14.09.12706 LV+/-3.852381014

A perfect alignment in NJ: all three pollsters, including YouGov, at +14. Obama won NJ in 2008 by +15.53%.

Nr.NEW MEXICODateSampleMoEObamaRomneyUnd.Mar.


11YouGov21.09.12331 RV+/-7.85341612
10PPP (D)12.09.121122 LV+/-2.95342511
9Albequerque Journal10.09.12667 LV+/-3.84540155
8Rasmussen22.08.12500 LV+/-4.552381014

The YouGov +12 in NM is in line with both PPP and RAS (RAS is not in the current average). Obama won NM by +15.13% in 2008.

Nr.NEW YORKDateSampleMoEObamaRomneyUndMar.


16YouGov21.09.121562 RV+/-2.75834824
15Quinnipiac13.09.121486 LV+/-2.56234428

YouGov's +24 in NY is under Quinnipiac.

Nr.NORTH CAROLINADateSampleMoEObamaRomneyUndMar.


31Purple Strategies21.09.12600 LV+/-4.0484662
30High Point / FOX 820.09.12448 RV+/-4.74643113
29YouGov20.09.121161 RV+/-3.3464680
28Rasmussen14.09.12500 LV+/-4.545514-6
27SUSA for Civitas (R)10.09.12500 RV+/-4.543534-10
26PPP (D)10.09.121087 LV+/-3.0494831

YouGov shows an absolute tie in NC, right in the middle of these six polling values.



39Purple Strategies21.09.12600 LV+/-4.0484484
38YouGov20.09.121036 LV
37Secure America Now (R)20.09.12600 LV+/-4.046,9043,809,303,10
36Fox19.09.121009 LV+/-3.1494297
35NBC / WSJ / Marist13.09.12979 LV+/-3.1504377
34ARG13.09.12600 LV+/-4.0484751
36Rasmussen13.09.12500 LV+/-4.5474671
35Gravis (R)10.09.121548 LV+/-3.047,2743,199,544,08
34PPP (D)09.09.121072 LV+/-3.0504555

YouGov's +3 in OH is 5th among 9 polls in this average and under the average value. Right in the middle.



30Rasmussen21.09.12500 LV+/-4.551391012
29Susquehanna (R – for PA R Party)20.09.12800 LV+/-3.45484751
28YouGov20.09.121139 LV
27WAA (R)20.09.121214 LV+/-2.8548,1042,209,705,9
26Muhlenberg / Morning Call18.09.12640 LV+/-4.0504199

YouGov's +9 in PA is UNDER RAS and identical to Muhlenberg, the "gold standard" for this state.



4YouGov21.09.12789 RV+/-3.9424997
3Vanderbilt20.05.12842 RV+/-4.04047137
2MTSU29.02.12646 A+/-4.04147126
1Vanderbilt26.02.121508 RV+/-2.63942193

YouGov's +7 for Romney in TN seems lean, but it identical to the last polling value and almost identical to MTSU. Either the race is closer in TN than we realize, or all polling is off in this state.



6YouGov21.09.121254 RV+/-3.94152711
5WPA Research (R)12.09.121000 LV+/-3.14055515
4UT / TT21.05.12800 A+/-4.035551020
3PPP (D)24.04.12591 RV+/-4.9435077
2UT / TT20.02.12800 RV+/-3.4636491513
1PPP19.01.12700 RV+/-3.70424997

Of all six polls from TX, YouGov's +11 for Romney is the fourth highest margin and under WPA Research. McCain won TX in 2008 by +11.76%.



39Purple Strategies21.09.12600 LV+/-4.04643113
38YouGov20.09.121121 RV+/-3.27484484
37WAA19.09.121238 LV+/-2.848,5045,705,802,80
36Fox19.09.121006 LV+/-3.0494297
35Quinnipiac / NYT / CBS19.09.121474 LV+/-3.0504644
34WAPO18.09.121104 RV+/-4.0524448
33PPP (D)16.09.121021 LV+/-3.1514635
32Rasmussen14.09.12500 LV+/-4.5494831
31NBC / WSJ / Marist13.09.12996 LV+/-3.1494475
30Gravis (R)11.09.122238 LV+/-2.244,0449,396,57-5,35

Of the 10 VA polls in the current average, YouGov's +4 for Obama is the fourth highest margin, right in the middle.



15YouGov21.09.12939 RV+/-3.95239913
14Elway14.09.12405 LV+/-5.053361117
13PPP (D) / LCV12.09.12

12SUSA10.09.12524 LV+/-4.45438816

Of the 4 WA polls in the average, YouGov's +13 for Obama is the 3rd largest.



37NBC / WSJ / Marist20.09.12968 LV+/-3.1504555
36Rasmussen20.09.12500 LV+/-4.5494653
35YouGov20.09.12804 RV+/-4.5484662
34PPP (D)20.09.12842 LV+/-3.4524537
33Marquette19.09.12705 RV+/-4.15440614
32Quinnipiac / NYT / CBS19.09.121485 LV+/-3.0514546
31PPP (D) / DFA17.09.12959 LV+/-3.16494831

Of the 7 WI polls in the average, YouGov's +2 for Obama is the second smallest.


Facit: in most all cases, YouGov's results are in the middle of a group of polls or similar to polls from months ago for states that are barely polled.

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