21 September 2012

09/20 was a record setting day that broke the record setter 09/19! (State Polls)

On 09/19, 17 state polls came in and I did a pretty massive analysis of them.

Yesterday, 09/20, a whalloping 29 state polls came in and changed some numbers even more, most noticeable, in Wisconsin.

I don't have time today for a massive analysis, but I have put all of the polling data (in .xls format) out on Googledocs: you can see the data HERE.

In fact, in the four days from 09/17 through 09/20, 61 state polls have come in, which is more than all the state polls that came in between Electoral Landscape 2 and Electoral Landscape 3. I was planning an "Electoral Landscape 4" for 09/30, but may have to move it up, due to such a massive influx of polling data.

Here the toplines for a lot of states, without any commentary. Again, you can go HERE TO THIS LINK if you want to see the whole table.

Each of the excerpts only contains the polls that are in the average. The average is the number at the top directly under "Mar.". All color coded, according to party.



18PPIC20.09.122003 A+/-3.95339814
17Field19.09.12891 LV+/-3.45834824
16CBRT / Pepperdine13.09.12900 LV?+/-4.055,4033,4011,2022,00
15SUSA12.09.12524 LV+/-4.35735822

The PPIC bumped the CA average down a tick, but PPIC has always tended to be way under the rest. STRONG DEM.



23NBC / WSJ / Marist20.09.12971 LV+/-3.1504555
22YouGov20.09.12753 RV+/-4.5494564
21Quinnipiac / NYT / CBS19.09.121497 LV+/-3.0484751
20Rasmussen18.09.12500 LV+/-4.545478-2
19Denver Post / SUSA14.09.12615 LV+/-4.0474671
18Project New America13.09.12503 LV+/-4.4494475
17ARG13.09.12600 LV+/-4.0494742

Close race in Colorado, just outside the 2% barrier for "tossup" category.



8U Conn / Courant20.09.12508 LV+/-4.453321521
7LCV / PPP (D)29.08.12881 LV+/-3.35340713
6Quinnipiac28.08.121472 LV+/-2.6524537

The one poll of Connecticut (no average possible, the older polls are there just for comparison) shows Obama approaching his margin from 2008. Connecticut may just be fools gold for the GOP. STRONG DEM.



48YouGov20.09.121507 RV+/-3.6484662
47WAA (R)20.09.121230 LV+/-2.8249,4045,505,103,9
46Secure America Now (R)20.09.12600 LV+/-4.044,0047,708,30-3,7
45Fox News19.09.12829 LV+/-3.0494475
44Gravis Marketing (R)18.09.121728 LV+/-2.547,1047,705,20-0,6
43NBC News / WSJ / Marist13.09.12980 LV+/-3.1494475
42Concensus Communications (R)13.09.12606 LV+/-4.04242160
41McLaughlin (R) for AIF13.09.12

40Rasmussen13.09.12500 LV+/-4.5484662
39SUSA11.09.12596 LV+/-4.1484484

Florida: tossup, as usual.



39YouGov20.09.121114 LV
38Glengariff Group20.09.12600 LV+/-4.052,0037,8010,2014,2
27CNN / ORC19.09.12754 LV+/-3.5524448
26Marketing Research Group18.09.12600 LV+/-4.047,5042,3010,205,2
25Foster-McCollum /Baydoun14.09.121156 RE+/-2.8845,4943,6510,861,84
24EPIC / MRA12.09.12600 LV+/-4.047371610
23PPP (D)03.09.12815 LV+/-3.4514457

Michigan is moving into SAFE DEM territory. Is neither a tossup nor a battleground, according to this kind of average.



14YouGov20.09.12588 RV+/-5.2514368
13CNN / ORC20.09.12741 LV+/-3.5494653
12Rasmussen20.09.12500 LV+/-4.5474582

After a dearth of polling, three polls all at once in NV. Notice how similar the polling average in NV is to OH. Nevada: +4.33, Ohio: +3.90. NV and OH are THE bellwethers of the nation, not to forget. NV is outside of the tossups but definitely within the battlegrounds. Romney is polling stronger here than McCain did in 2008.

Nr.NEW HAMPSHIREDateSampleMoEObamaRomneyUnd.Mar.


17YouGov20.09.12743 RV+/-3.94740137
16Rasmussen19.09.12500 LV+/-4.545487-3
15ARG18.09.12463 LV+/-3.2484662
14WMUR / UNH13.09.12592 LV+/-3.94540155

New Hampshire is just outside of the tossups. See the commentary I wrote yesterday about NH. Battleground.

Nr.NORTH CAROLINADateSampleMoEObamaRomneyUndMar.


30High Point / FOX 820.09.12448 RV+/-4.74643113
29YouGov20.09.121161 RV+/-3.3464680
28Rasmussen14.09.12500 LV+/-4.545514-6
27SUSA for Civitas (R)10.09.12500 RV+/-4.543534-10
26PPP (D)10.09.121087 LV+/-3.0494831

Romney's lead in NC is shrinking, but just as in the cases of CO and NH, it is outside of the "tossup" category but well withín the battleground category. The High Point poll shows a complete reversal from 2 weeks ago: back then, it was Romney 46 / Obama 43 - that is a 6 point shift. Battleground.



38YouGov20.09.121036 LV
37Secure America Now (R)20.09.12600 LV+/-4.046,9043,809,303,10
36Fox19.09.121009 LV+/-3.1494297
35NBC / WSJ / Marist13.09.12979 LV+/-3.1504377
34ARG13.09.12600 LV+/-4.0484751
36Rasmussen13.09.12500 LV+/-4.5474671
35Gravis (R)10.09.121548 LV+/-3.047,2743,199,544,08
34PPP (D)09.09.121072 LV+/-3.0504555

As usual, OH hanging at an average of close to +4 for Obama. See my commentary on Ohio from yesterday. When you look at the bottom line numbers, Romney is polling weaker in Ohio than McCain did in 2008. Battleground.



29Susquehanna (R – for PA R Party)20.09.12800 LV+/-3.45484751
28YouGov20.09.121139 LV
27WAA (R)20.09.121214 LV+/-2.8548,1042,209,705,9
26Muhenberg / Morning Call18.09.12640 LV+/-4.0504199
25Inquirer / Global (D) & National (R)15.09.12600 LV+/-4.050391111

Pennsylvania, like Michigan, is moving into SAFE DEM territory. The Susqehanna poll, paid for the PA GOP, is a clear mathematical outlier here, when three other polls have Obama around +10.



38YouGov20.09.121121 RV+/-3.27484484
37WAA19.09.121238 LV+/-2.848,5045,705,802,80
36Fox19.09.121006 LV+/-3.0494297
35Quinnipiac / NYT / CBS19.09.121474 LV+/-3.0504644
34WAPO18.09.121104 RV+/-4.0524448
33PPP (D)16.09.121021 LV+/-3.1514635
32Rasmussen14.09.12500 LV+/-4.5494831
31NBC / WSJ / Marist13.09.12996 LV+/-3.1494475
30Gravis (R)11.09.122238 LV+/-2.244,0449,396,57-5,35

Virginia is moving solidly toward the President. It is no longer in the tossups and as soon as the bottom poll drops out of the statistic (Gravis, 09/11) after the weekend, then the margin moves +3.49 to +4.09, right between Ohio and Nevada. BATTLEGROUND.



37NBC / WSJ / Marist20.09.12968 LV+/-3.1504555
36Rasmussen20.09.12500 LV+/-4.5494653
35YouGov20.09.12804 RV+/-4.5484662
34PPP (D)20.09.12842 LV+/-3.4524537
33Marquette19.09.12705 RV+/-4.15440614
32Quinnipiac / NYT / CBS19.09.121485 LV+/-3.0514546
31PPP (D) / DFA17.09.12959 LV+/-3.16494831

Wisconsin wins the 09/20 poll-o-rama of the day, with four polls alone for the Badger state. So, we now have seven very fresh polls from WI, all for Obama. Notice that PPP (D), which is often accused from the Right of liberal bias, shows the SMALLEST margin here. At +5.43, WI is not in the tossups and is just outside of the battleground range. LEAN DEM.


Facit: 09/20 was a huge polling day, and tons of good news for the President. The only poll that showed some good news for Romney was the Susquehanna from PA - and it is identifiably a mathematical outlier.

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