02 February 2012

2012 State Polling update: New Jersey through Wyoming

New Jersey- DEM

Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich
Paul
other
Cain
Bachmann
Perry
01/18/12
48 38
---
---
---


---
12/21/11
51 32
54 27
50 /29
---


---
10/16/11
49 40
53 34
---
---
55 /32
---
54 /31
10/13/11
47 41
---
---
---
47 /38
---
49 /36
07/21/11
53 39
---
---
56 39
(Christie)
59 33
(Palin)
54 32
(Pawlenty)
55 /29
55 35
---
06/30/11
---
---
---
56 33
(Christie)
---
---
---
05/27/11
49 43
---
---
49 44
(Christie)
--
---
---
01/11/11
52 37
54 37
---
55 38
(Christie)

53/36
(Huckabee)
59 /29
---
---

Obama 2008 margin: +15.53
Kerry 2004 margin: +6.68
DEM margin average 1948-2004: +3.43

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
New Mexico- DEM pick-up

Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich.
Paul
other
Huckabee
Palin
Cain
Bachmann
Perry
01/19/12
45.0 / 45.0
---
---





---
12/16/11
53 38
56 39
51 /38
Obama 45 / Gingrich 28 / Johnson 20

Obama 44 / Romney 27 / Johnson 23



56 36
56 /35
06/29/11
49 42
---

46 43
(Johnson)

51 36
(Pawlenty)

56 36
52 36
52 37

02/09/11
53 37
56 35

51 36
55 / 36
62 33
--
--
--

Obama 2008 margin: +15.13
Bush 2004 margin: +0.79
GOP margin average 1948-2004: +4.10

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
New York- DEM

Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich
Paul
Santorum
Other
Palin
Giuliani
Cain
Perry
Bachmann
01/24/12
58 35
63 31
62 /28
61 33
---





11/17/11
52 35
---
---
---
---


54 /31
55 /31
---
11/15/11
59 34
---
60 /31
---
---
---
---
63 /27
63 /28
64 27
11/02/11
59 35
---
---
---
---
---
---
62 /31
64 /29
---
10/18/11
55 37
--
---
---
---
---
---
---
58 /31
---
Quinnipiac
09/20/11
---
---
---
---
52 33
(generic)
---
---
---
---
---
08/16/11
55 37
---
62 /32
--
---
65/26
50 44
---
57 /30
60 30

Obama 2008 margin: +26.86
Kerry 2004 margin: +18.29
DEM margin average 1948-2004: +5.42

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
North Carolina – DEM pick-up

Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich.
Paul
Other
Huckabee
Trump
Palin
Cain
Bachmann
Perry
01/25/12
39 48
---
---
---





---
01/10/12
46 45
49 43
47 41
46 46
(Santorum)

45 41 / 8
(Obama / Romney / Johnson)





---
49 /41
12/08/11
46 46
49 45
47 42




50 37
---
50 /42
11/02/11
45 46
50 43
48 /40




47 /44
50 42
50 /42
10/21/11
---
---

---



41 46
---
---
10/06/11
46 45
49 42
46 /43
45 46
(Christie)






49 42
48 /44
09/13/11
45 43
--

--
--
--
--
---
--
48 /43
09/09/11
45 44
48 43

---


49 /42
---
47 45
46 46
08/11/11
46 43
---





52 39
50 37
50 40
48 /40
07/18/11
--
--





--
--
--
42 /45
07/13/11
45 45
---

46 41
(Pawlenty)


50 42
46 42
46 43

06/13/11
45 44
50 40

47 40
(Pawlenty)
--
--
52 38
48 37
---

05/25/11
46 43
50 42


47 46
52 35
52 40
--
---

04/26/11
47 44
49 45


48 47
51 39
52 40
--
---

03/23/11
44 42
47 42


45 45

51 40
--
---

02/23/11
47 44
48 44


46 47

51 41

---

01/25/11
47 44
50 44


49 45

50 41

---

12/22/10
46 43
48 42


45 46

52 38

---

11/29/10
47 / 46
49 / 43


48 / 45

51 / 42

---



Obama 2008 margin: +0.33
Bush 2004 margin: +12.44
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +4.13
GOP combined margin average 1952-2008: +5.66
GOP combined margin average 1988-2008: +7.78
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
North Dakota – GOP

-no polling to date-


McCain 2008 margin: +8.65
Bush 2004 margin: +27.36
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +18.36

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ohio - DEM pick-up

Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich.
Paul
other
Huckabee
Palin
Cain
Bachmann
Perry
02.01.12
49 42
51 39
48 /38
48 42
(Santorum)





01/19/12
39.6 /46.8
---
---





---
01/18/12
44 42
---
---
---




---
12/08/11
42 / 43
42 / 43
---
---



---
---
11/10/11
45 42
49 37
---
---


48 /38
---
48 /36
11/09/11
50 41
51 38
50 /36



50 /39
51 37
53 /36
10/26/11
45 41
---
---
---


47 /39
---
47 /36
10/20/11
46 46
51 40
48 /40



48 /45
49 40
50 /41
09/28/11
44 41
---
---
---

---

---
44 /42
08/16/11
45 43
---
---


51 /38
47 /39
48 41
45 /41
07/21/11
45 41
---
---
---

51 /35

49 36
47 /35
05/24/11
46 42
49 40
---
48 38 (Portman)
---
50 /40

---
---
03/24/11
--
--
---
41 34 (Generic)
--
--

---
---
03/18/11
46 40
50 38
---
----
48 41
52 /36

---
---
01/20/11
--
--
---
44 39
(Generic)
--
--

---
---
12/14/10
44 42
47 41
---
----
45 44
49 /42

---
---

Obama 2008 margin: +4.58
Bush 2004 margin: +2.11
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004+5.15

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oklahoma – FIREWALL GOP

-no polling to date-

McCain 2008 margin: +31.29%
Bush 2004 margin: +31.23
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +16.03

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oregon – DEM

Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich.
Bachmann
Pawlenty
Palin
Cain
11/23/11
48 40
51 37
---
---
---
---
06/23/11
50 38
---
53 35
52 34
57 /35
53 /32

Obama 2008 margin: +16.35
Kerry 2004 margin: +4.16
GOP margin average 1948-2004: +1.58

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pennsylvania – DEM

Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich.
other
Huckabee
Palin
Cain
Perry
Bachmann
12/09/11
45 41
52 35
---



48 30
---
12/08/11
46 43
48 40
---



---
---
11/22/11
45 45
49 43
46 42
(Paul)
47 42
(Santorum)


53 /35
51 38
---
11/11/11
44 44
47 40
Obama-Clinton 50 / Romney-Gingrich 41

Obama-Biden 46 / Romney-Gingrich 45

Obama-Clinton 50 / Gingrich-Romney 40

Obama-Biden 46 / Gingrich-Romney 42


---
---
---
11/10/11
44 43
48 38
---


48 /38
47 38
---
11/02/11
35 26

38 25
(Santorum)


38 /24
40 20

09/28/11
45 43
---
45 42
(Santorum)

---

46 40
---
09/19/11
50 40
---
---

---

52 37
---
09/01/11
36 30
---
39 31
(Santorum)

---

38 27
42 23
Muhlenberg
08/07/11
---
---
36 31
(generic)

---

---
---
08/02/11
42 44





45 39
47 39
07/08/11
44 44
--
49 38
(Cain)
50 40
(Santorum)
47 39
(Pawlenty)

--


50 43
06/15/11
47 40
---
49 38
(Santorum)

---

---
---
04/12/11
42 43
47 39
45 43
45 44
50 /39

---
---
03/07/11
43 36
----
37 33
44 34
53 /35

---
---
01/06/11
46 42
50 40
----
47 44
51 / 36




Obama 2008 margin: +10.31
Kerry 2004 margin: +2.50
DEM margin average 1948-2004: +0.25
DEM margin average 1952-2008: +0.94
DEM margin average 1988-2008: +5.48

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Rhode Island – DEM

Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich.
other
Huckabee
Palin
02/28/11
54 37
60 27
----
56 31
65 / 24


Obama 2008 margin: +27.81
Kerry 2004 margin: +20.75
DEM combined margin average 1948-2004: +16.23

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
South Carolina – GOP

Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich.
other
Huckabee
Palin
Cain
Perry
Paul
Bachmann
01/16/12
40 46








12/12/11
45 42
46 42
---



---
47 /37
---
10/19/11
40 46
---
---

---
42 /44
42 /43
---
---
09/01/11
38 53
44 45
---

44 /45
---
41 /49
---
44 44
06/10/11
41 50
46 44
44 47
(DeMint)
42 42
(Pawlenty)


48 /43
43 /40
---
---
---
02/03/11
42 49
44 43
45 / 47
(DeMint)
43 49
(Pawlenty)
43 49
47 /41

---
---
---

McCain 2008 margin: +8.98
Bush 2004 margin: +17.08
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +7.47
GOP combined margin average 1952-2008: +9.53
GOP combined margin average 1988-2008: +13.35

---------------------------------------------------------------
South Dakota – GOP

Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich.
other
Huckabee
Palin
02/01/11
40 46
44 42
37/57
41 47
48 /40

McCain 2008 margin: +8.41
Bush 2004 margin: +21.47
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +13.31

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tennessee – GOP

Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich.
other
Huckabee
Palin
Cain
Perry
Bachmann
11/13/11
38 42
---
---


37 /41
39 /40
---
10/24/11
30 48
---
---

Palin
30 /44
30 /45
---
06/21/11
37.0 /34.7
36.7 /28.1

36.7 28.1
(Pawlenty)
---
42.5 /29.0
---
---
38.1 /26.8
02/17/11
41 48
43 46
---
41 53
45 45
---
---
---

McCain 2008 margin: +15.06
Bush 2004 margin: +14.27
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +4.23
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Texas – GOP

Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich.
Santorum
Paul
Other
Huckabee
Bachmann
Perry
Palin
Cain
01/19/12
42 49
47 /45
42 49
40 /46
38 / 40 / 17
(Obama / Romney / Paul)
39 / 47 / 7
(Obama / Romney / Johnson)


47 /48


10/25/11
30 48
---


---

---
30 45
---
30 44
09/20/11
41 47
46 44

42 / 43



45 43
40 51
---
---
06/29/11
42 50
---

40 /45



44 47
47 /45
46 /44
43 /43
01/20/11
42 49
43 48


---
39 55
--
45 / 45
46 47
---

McCain 2008 margin: +11.76
Bush 2004 margin: +22.86
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +5.49
GOP combined margin average 1952-2008: +9.05
GOP combined margin average 1988-2008: +12.83

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Utah – GOP

Pollster
Date
Romney
Bachmann
Huntsman
Pawlenty
Palin
Cain
07/15/11
31 63
35 49
23 63
34 45
41 /43
36 /43

McCain 2008 margin: +28.02
Bush 2004 margin: +45.54
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +26.59

Victory for any GOP candidate is all but guaranteed in this the no. 1 conservative state in the union.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Vermont – DEM

Pollster
Date
Romney
Bachmann
Perry
Cain
Palin
08/16/11
54 34
58 30
57 /28
58 /26
62 /28


Obama 2008 margin: +37.01
Kerry 2004 margin: +20.14
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +6.93

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Virginia – DEM pick-up

Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich.
other
Trump
Huckabee
Palin
Cain
Bachmann
Paul
Perry
01/19/12
43.6 /46.8
---






---
---
Quinnipiac
12/21/11
42 44
46 41
---




---
---
---
12/14/11
48 42
50 43





52 39
48 /40
51 /41
10/11/11
44 45
---
---
---
---
---
45 /43
---
---
47 /42
10/01/11
45 46
---
---
---
---
---
---
---
---
---
09/26/11
37 45
---
---

---
---
50 /31
---
46 35
43 /33
40 /42
09/15/11
42 44
---
---
---
---
50 /35
---
48 37
---
44 /42
07/26/11
47 43
--
48 39
(Perry)
---
---
51 /37
49 /38
49 40
---
---
06/30/11
--
--
43 41
(generic)
--
---
--
---
--
---
---
05/10/11
51 40
54 37
51 43
52 32
52 43
55 /40
---
---
---
---
05/09/11
50 44
----
54 36
58 32
52 44
59 /33
---
---
---
---
03/02/11
48 42
51 39
----
---
51 43
54 /35
---
---
---
---
11/16/10
48 43
52 41
----
---
49 44
51 /40
---
---
---
---

Obama 2008 margin: +6.30
Bush 2004 margin: +8.20
Virginia Partisan shift 2008 over 2004: DEM +14.50
Partisan shift compared to national partisan shift: 14.50 – 9.72 = +4.78

GOP combined margin average 1948--2004+10.14
GOP combined margin average 1952-2008: +10.18
GOP combined margin average 1988-2008: +6.13

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Washington –DEM

Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich.
other
Huckabee
Palin
Perry
Bachmann
12/02/11
49 41
56 37
---

---
---
---
10/31/11
50.2 /40.7
---
---
---
---
54.0 /40.7
---
09/19/11
49 40
---
---
---
---
51 37
-------
05/20/11
51 40
54 36
58 /31
53 39
57 /34
---
---

Obama 2008 margin: +17.08
Kerry 2004 margin: +7.18
DEM margin average 1948-2004: +0.97

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
West Virginia – GOP

Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich.
other
Huckabee
Palin
Bachmann
Perry
10/07/11
released:
10/13/11
33 54
36 51
34 53
(Christie)
34 48
(Paul)

---
37 52
36 /52
09/16/11
37 49
40 45


42 /45
39 48
38 /49
01/27/11
37 50
39 49
---
36 54
42 /46
---


McCain 2008 margin: +13.09
Bush 2004 margin: +12.86
DEM combined margin average 1948-2004: +3.81
DEM combined margin average 1952-2008: +1.93
DEM combined margin average 1988-2008: +0.04

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wisconsin – DEM

Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich
Paul
other
Huckabee
Palin
Bachmann
Perry
Cain.
01/25/12
48 40
---
---
---





01/19/12
42.6 /44.0
---
---
---


---
---
---
10/31/11
45 41
---
---
---


---
42 / 46
47 42
10/28/11
46 35
---
---
---


---
48 /30
50 31
10/28/11
46 43
52 38
48 /39
(Paul)
---


51 40
50 /39
49 42
08/24/11
47 42
---
---
--

52 /40
51 39
50 /40
50 36
05/26/11
51 39
53 35
---
50 43
(Ryan)

55 /36
---
---
---
03/03/11
48 38
51 39
---
49 40
(Ryan)
48 41
54 /35
---
---
---


Obama 2008 margin: +13.90
Kerry 2004 margin: +0.38
GOP margin average 1948-2004: +1.83

------------------------------------------------------------------
Wyoming – GOP

-no polling data to date-

McCain 2008 margin: +32.24
Bush 2004 margin: +39.79
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +20.97

No comments:

Post a Comment

Constructive comments and critique are always welcome. Please keep it polite and respectful.