02 February 2012

2012 State Polling update: Alabama through New Hampshire

Here is all of the state-by-state polling from December 2010 onward. As of February, barring any major catastrophe in the GOP, I am going to move to a different mode for recording the polling, using an .xls file to record the values for Obama against the GOP field, with margins, polling group (Adults, RV, LV) and averages. If signs appear that it really is only a race between Romney and Gingrich for the nomination, then I will begin to cycle out the numbers for Santorum and Paul.


The following states have still not been polled in Presidential match-ups even once:


Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, DC, Idaho, Indiana, Maryland, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Wyoming (9 states plus DC). The other 41 states have been polled.


The grey areas in the tables represent GOP candidates who have since dropped out of the race.



Polls from all 50 states, alphabetical:
Through 01/31/2012

Alabama – GOP

-no polling data to date-


2008 margin: +21.58
Bush 2004 margin: +25.62
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +10.25
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Alaska – GOP


Pollster
Date
Romney
Bachmann
Palin
Pawlenty
other
06/28/11
--
--
42 /36
---
--

McCain 2008 margin: +21.54
Bush 2004 margin: +25.55
GOP combined margin average 1960-2004: +15.80

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Arizona - GOP

Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich
Paul
Huckabee
Palin
Trump
Perry
Cain
11/28/11
42 49
45 / 45
43 /44



47 /40
46 /42
10/26/11
45 40
---
---



44 /38
45 /38
05/03/11
44 48
47 40

46 44
49 /38
48 36
---
---
03/02/11
43 49
46 46
---
44 48
49 /41

---
---

McCain 2008 margin: +8.48
Bush 2004 margin: +10.47
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +14.60

--------------------------------------------------------------
Arkansas - GOP


-no polling to date-


McCain 2008 margin: +19.85
Bush 2004 margin: +9.76
DEM combined margin average 1948-2004: +3.53

----------------------------------------------------------------------
California- DEM


Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich.
Paul
other
Huckabee
Cain
Perry
Bachmann
12/01/11
50 40
50 35
---
---

---
---
---
11/17/11
52 35
---
---
---

54 31
55 31
---
11/17/11
57 36
60 34
57 /32
---

61 32
60 31
60 31
11/13/11
50 39
56 32
---
Obama-Clinton 57 / Romney-Gingrich 35

Obama-Biden 52 / Romney-Gingrich 38

Obama-Clinton 53 / Gingrich-Romney 35

Obama-Biden 46 / Gingrich-Romney 42

---
---
---
11/07/11
---
---
---
45 41
(generic)

---
---
---
09/15/11
51 38
---
---
---

---
54 35
---
09/05/11
54 35
---
---
---
---
---
56 32
57 31
02/03/11
56 36
58 34
---
62 31
(Palin)
54 / 39
---
---
---


Obama 2008 margin: +24.03
Kerry 2004 margin: +9.95
GOP margin average 1948-2004: +0.96

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Colorado – DEM

Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich
Paul
other
Huckabee
Palin
Cain
Perry
12/07/11
47 45
50 42
48 39
---
---
---
52 36
52 37
08/10/11
48 41
---
---
51 39
(Bachmann)
---
54 38
51 35
51 38
02/08/11
47 41
---
---
46 35
(generic)
53 39
(Gingrich)
51 / 42
55 36
---
---


Obama 2008 margin: +8.95
Bush 2004 margin: +4.67 GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +9.41
----------------------------------------------------------------
Connecticut – DEM

Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich
Paul
other
Perry
Bachmann
09/30/11
47 45
54 / 38
51 /38

53 / 41
55 / 36
09/16/11
49 36
---
---
---
52 /33
---
06/15/11
---
---
---
46 35
(generic)
---
---


Obama 2008 margin: +22.37
Kerry 2004 margin: +10.37
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +0.03
DEM combined margin average 1952-2008: +1.58
Dem combined margin average 1998-2008: +11.60%

---------------------------------------------------------------
Delaware – DEM

-no polling to date-

Obama 2008 margin: +24.98
Kerry 2004 margin: +7.59
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +0.05

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DC – DEM

-no polling to date-


Obama 2008 margin: +85.92
Kerry 2004 margin: +79.84
DEM combined margin average 1948-2004: +69.56


------------------------------------------------------------


Florida – DEM pick-up

Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich.
Paul
other
Huckabee
Palin
Cain
Bachmann
Perry
01/30/12
44 48
50 41
---
50 39
(Santorum)





01/30/12
49 / 41
52 35
50 36
50 35
(Santorum)





01/26/12
42 47
49 40
---
---





01/26/12
45 45
50 39
47 39
46 40
(Santorum)





01/19/12
46 / 45
---
---
---




---
01/19/12
41.5 /46.7
---
---





---
11/01/12
43 46
---
---
45 43
(Santorum)



---
---
12/08/11
42 45
46 44
---
---
---
---
---
---
---
12/01/11
45 44
50 44
46 40



51 37
---
50 38
11/19/11
42 46
45 43

---


46 37
---
---
11/10/11
45 42
45 42

---


45 41
---
46 40
11/02/11
42 42
45 38
44 32



42 39
---
46 34
10/19/11
45 43
---

---


47 41
---
47 39

47.5 /42.3
53.9 /36.2
51.4 /33.8
50.9 33.3
(Huntsman)
52.1 31.1
(Santorum)


51.7 /37.1
52.2 33.6
53.3 36.3
09/29/11
46 45
50 42
45 44




49 44
50 43
09/21/11
43.5 /44.7
49.2 /37.3
46.3 /37.1
45.4 35.1
(Huntsman)
47.8 35.1
(Santorum)


47.7 /36.7
49.9 37.1
47.4 39.8
08/23/11
39 49
---

---
---
---
---
42 43
39 46
08/??/11
44 45
---

--
---
---
---
---
44 39
08/04/11
44 44
---




53 34

50 38
44 39
07/12/11
42 46
--

--

--
--
--

06/24/11
47 43
--

48 40
(Pawlenty)

52 40
48 37
49 40

05/26/11
--
--

44 / 37

--
--
--

04/14/11
44 43
47 36

41 28
45 30
49 34
44 41
52 34

--

04/11/11
43 48
----

48 40
44 49
51 39

--

04/07/11



38 41



--

03/31/11
46 44
50 42

48 45
48 42
50 43
52 39

--

12/22/10
46 44
47 42

48 40
49 44
52 38

--



Obama 2008 margin: +2.81
Bush 2004 margin: +5.01
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +8.65
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Georgia – GOP

Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich.
other
Huckabee
Palin
12/08/11
42 49
42 48
---
---
---
10/28/11
---
---
38 54
(generic)

---
04/05/11
43 46
46 45
44 39
45 48
48 /43
02/03/11
44 50
45 47
---
45 50
47 /43


McCain 2008 margin: +5.20
Bush 2004 margin: +16.60
DEM combined margin average 1948-2004: +3.17

------------------------------------------------------------------

Hawaii – DEM


Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich
other
Bachmann
Perry
Cain
10/20/11
59 32
64 27
61 /28
(Paul)
64 28
63 /28
63 /30


Obama 2008 margin: +45.26
Kerry 2004 margin: +8.74
DEM combined margin average 1948-2004: +10.01

-------------------------------------------------------------------
Idaho – GOP

-no polling to date-


McCain 2008 margin: +25.30
Bush 2004 margin: +38.12
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +24.44

------------------------------------------------------------------
Illinois – DEM


Pollster
Date
Romney
Paul
other
Cain
Perry
10/20/2011
46.1/38.5
49.3/30.3
---
46.3/34.0
50.8/32.8

Obama 2008 margin: +25.11
Kerry 2004 margin: +10.34
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +0.09

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Indiana – DEM pick-up

-no polling to date-

Obama 2008 margin: +1.03
Bush 2004 margin: +20.68
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +13.29

--------------------------------------------------------------------
Iowa – DEM pick-up

Pollster
Date
Romney
Paul
other
Huckabee
Trump
Palin
Bachmann
Perry
Cain
10/12/11
46 42
47 /40
50 39
(Gingrich)



49 39
49 39
47 /41
10/11/11
43 40
---
---



---
46 /37
---
08/24/11
49 39
---
---


54 /33
51 34
51 38
51 /33
07/13/11
39 42
---
--


--
47 42
--
--
06/03/11
49 40
---
50 32
49 37
(Pawlenty)
54 33
(Gingrich)
--
--
55 /35
--
---
---
04/21/11
45 41
---
43 27 / 21
50 39
(Gingrich)
45 45
51 35
53 /36
--
---
--
01/12/11
47 41
---
51 33
51 38
(Gingrich)
4743
--
53 /37
--
---
--


Obama 2008 margin: +9.53
Bush 2004 margin: +0.67
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +3.84
GOP combined margin average 1952-2008: +3.39
DEM combined margin average 1988-2008: +5.96
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Kansas – GOP


Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich
other
11/24/11
39 / 48
45 / 40
---
11/11/11
31 / 56
35 / 52
Obama-Biden 32 /Romney-Gingrich 56

Obama-Clinton 34 /Romney-Gingrich 56

Obama-Biden 34 / Gingrich-Romney 53

Obama-Clinton 34 / Gingrich-Romney 52

McCain 2008 margin: +14.92
Bush 2004 margin: +25.38
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +19.84

------------------------------------------------------------------

Kentucky - GOP

Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich
Bachmann
Perry       
Palin
09/02/11
40 / 48
47 /44
43 / 46
42 / 49
48 /44

McCain 2008 margin: +16.22
Bush 2004 margin: +19.86
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +4.32

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Louisiana – GOP


Pollster
Date
Romney
Perry
10/13/11
37 / 53
37 / 52

McCain 2008 margin: +18.63
Bush 2004 margin: +14.51
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +3.64
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Maine – DEM


Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich
Paul
Huckabee
Palin
Cain
Perry
Bachmann
11/04/11
49 38
55 / 35
53 / 34  
---
---
54 /37
55 /34
55 / 35
10/28/11
41 40
---
---
---
---
---
46 /32
---
03/11/11
49 41
53 / 37
----
51 39
57 35
---
---
---

Obama 2008 margin: +17.32
Kerry 2004 margin: +9.00
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +4.67

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Maryland – DEM

-no polling to date-

Obama 2008 margin: +25.44
Kerry 2004 margin: +12.98
DEM combined margin average 1948-2004: +2.85

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Massachusetts - DEM

Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich.
other
Huckabee
Cain
Palin
Perry
Bachmann
10/02/11
---
---
---
---
---
---
09/21/11
53 40
58 /31
55 30
(Paul)

---
---
58 / 32
59 / 28
06/10/11
57 37
63 27
59 / 28
(Pawlenty)
--
60 27
63 27
---

12/03/10
52 43
57 / 33
---
57 33
--
61 32
--


Obama 2008 margin: +25.81
Kerry 2004 margin: +25.16
DEM margin average 1948-2004: +14.75
DEM margin average 1952-2008: +15.70
DEM margin average 1988-2008: +23.01

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Michigan- DEM

Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich.
Paul
other
Huckabee
Palin
Perry
Bachmann
Cain
01/24/12
48 40
51 38
---
---





11/21/11
41 / 46
45 40
---
---


---
---
50 36
10/14/11
50 39
54 31
52 /34
---


53 /32
56 30
53 32
07/27/11
47 42
---
---
50 31
(McCotter)

54 /36
50 /35
53 37
50 33
07/19/11
42 / 46
---
---
---
---
--
---
---
---
03/25/11
48 41
53 37
---
49 38
50 /41
55 /35
---
---
---
12/07/10
47 43
52 37
---
49 38
51 /39
56 /35
---
---
---

Obama 2008 margin: +16.44
Kerry 2004 margin: +3.42
GOP margin average 1948-2004: +0.42

----------------------------------------------------------------
Minnesota – DEM

Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich.
Paul
other
Huckabee
Pawlenty
Palin
Cain
Bachmann
01/26/12
51 41
54 39
52 /40
51 39
(Santorum)





11/09/11
45 39
---
48 /35
48 35
(Perry)



48 /35
57 29
06/23/11
---
---
---
--
--
46 46
--
--
53 39
06/08/11
51 36
54 36
---
46 32 / 16
(Obama / Romney / Ventura)

51 43
56 36
51 /36
56 35
05/24/11
---
---
---
--
--
48 43
--

57 32
12/08/10
47 42
51 / 38
---
51 43
50 40
--
54 36

--

Obama 2008 margin: +10.24
Kerry 2004 margin: +3.48
DEM margin average 1948-2004: +6.15

-------------------------------------------------------------------
Mississippi – GOP

Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich.
Paul
Barbour
Huckabee
Palin
Perry
Cain
Bachmann
11/10/11
36 54
38 54
37 /52



38 /55
37 /54
40 52
11/17/10
40 46
42 48
---
41 51
40 54
44 /48
---
---
---

McCain 2008 margin: +13.17
Bush 2004 margin: +19.69
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +9.66

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Missouri – GOP

Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich.
other
Huckabee
Palin
Bachmann
Perry
11/11/11
42 45
--
--




09/15/11
43 47
47 45
---

---
47 43
45 /47
05/13/11
43 45
46 44
46 41
(Trump)
44 49
48 /43
---
---
03/09/11
43 44
44 / 44
---
43 49
48 /43
---
---
12/02/10
41 47
44 / 45
---
42 49
46 /43
---
---


McCain 2008 margin: +0.13
Bush 2004 margin: +7.20
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +0.21
GOP combined margin average 1952-2008: +1.81
DEM combined margin average 1988-2008: +0.30
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Montana – GOP

Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich
Paul
other
Huckabee
Palin
Bachmann
Cain
Perry
12/02/11
40 50
42 50
40 /48
---
---
---
---
43 /45
43 /46
06/28/11
41 49
41 45
---
41 45
(Pawlenty)
---
44 /48
41 48
41 /46
---
11/17/10
29 50
41 51
---
41 51
(Pawlenty)
44 49
45 /47
--
---
---


McCain 2008 margin: +2.38
Bush 2004 margin: +20.50
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +9.54

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nebraska – GOP


Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich.
Paul
other
Huckabee
Perry
Bachmann
10/06/11
38 51
41 48
38 /47
37 51
(Christie)
---
41 /48
42 48
01/31/11
37 49
40 48
---
44 45
(Palin)
38 51
---
---

McCain 2008 margin: +14.93
Bush 2004 margin: +33.22
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +24.44


NE by CD: PPP 10/06/2011
Romney
Gingrich.
Paul
Christie
Perry
Bachmann
Entire State
38 51
41 48
38 47
37 51
41 48
42 48
NE-01
45 / 44
48 /40
43 / 39
43 44
47 / 41
47 /42
NE-02
42 50
45 48
42 47
39 52
44 48
45 50
NE-03
25 61
30 59
26 57
26 59
30 56
31 56

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nevada – DEM pick-up

Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich.
Paul
other
Huckabee
Trump
Palin
Cain
Bachmann
Perry
01/19/12
37.8 /49.3
---
---
---




---
---
12/22/11
46 40
47 35
45 /36
49 31
(Santorum)

49 30
(Huntsman)




50 27
51 /31
10/27/11
46 46
49 46
47 /43

---



49 /46
49 41
51 /41
08/03/11
47 46
---

---


51 39
48 39
50 40
49 /40
04/28/11
43 46
46 42

42 / 34 / 20
44 / 30 / 21
45 43
47 41
50 39
---
---
---
01/07/11
47 46
51 40

----
51 41
---
52/39
---
---
---

Obama 2008 margin: +12.49
Bush 2004 margin: +2.59
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: + 9.94

----------------------------------------------------------------
New Hampshire – DEM

Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich.
other
Huckabee
Trump
Pawlenty
Palin
Cain
Bachmann
Perry
11/23/11
43 47
---
---




---
---
---
10/11/11
40 49
---
---




---
---
46/40
10/08/11
42 50
---
---




---
---
---
07/07/11
44 46
---
---
--
--
48 /41
56 /38
49 /39
49 /42
---
07/06/11
43 47
----
---


47 /38
---
---
47 /41
---
04/28/11
43 50
----
---
46 / 42
---
45 /38
---
---
---
---
04/22/11
39 47
----
28 48
(Powell)
47 27
(Paul)
42 33
(Barbour)
45 / 37
51 /29
41 25
54 /27
---
---
---
04/06/11
47 46
52 39
51 37
52 / 38
---

56 /34
---
---
-
02/14/11
48 44
56 33
---
51 / 38
---

57 /34
---
---


Obama 2008 margin: +9.61
Kerry 2004 margin: +1.37
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +11.34
------------------------------------------------------------------

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