02 February 2012

2012 National Polling update

Here is all of the national polling from December 2010 onward. As of February, barring any major catastrophe in the GOP, I am going to move to a different mode for recording the polling, using an .xls file to record the values for Obama against the GOP field, with margins, polling group (Adults, RV, LV) and averages. If signs appear that it really is only a race between Romney and Gingrich for the nomination, then I will begin to cycle out the numbers for Santorum and Paul.


Of course, the real battle is at the state to state level, but national polling can indeed give us a sense of whether a tide is lifting all boats or crashing them against rocky shores.


When you look at the national data, it is very clear that Obama beats all other contenders aside from Romney quite handily. This alone is a bad omen for the GOP and does not predict a "wave" type of election coming up. Were dissatisfaction with the President really as high as the GOP would like to say, then all of these GOP candidates would be beating Obama, and they are not.


In the case of Romney, it has been a tit-for-tat in the national polling, with many values being statistical ties. Take a look:



USA at large

New Table as of 11/17/11, after third electoral prediction publication. Cain moved into the grey column on the right after his campaign suspension in early December. Bachmann moved on 01/04, Perry moved 01/22, Santorum cycled in 01/22. Rasmussen has moved to daily presidential match-ups as of 01/25 but hides them behind a paywall. I refuse to pay for polling information - so if any more Rasmussen results appear, it will be through a third party. Update: Rasmussen is providing some data through the daily Obama approval ratings threads, but did not advertise that it would do so.



Pollster
DATE
Romney
Gingrich
Paul
Santorum
Other
01/31/12
47 / 42
50 / 37
---
---
---
01/31/12
46 / 42
49 / 40
---
---
---
01/30/12
48 / 48
53 / 41
49 / 46
51 / 43

01/30/12
47 / 48
54 / 40
53 / 43
51 / 44

01/26/12
47 / 43
55 / 37
47 / 39
52 / 40
45 / 32 / 18
(Obama / Romney / Paul)
01/25/12
47 / 41
49 / 39
47 / 40
---
---
01/23/12
45 / 43
48 / 39
---
---
---
01/19/12
45 / 45
50 / 39
46 / 42
49 / 38
---
---
Rasmussen
01/17-01/20
---
---
---
01/17/12
49 / 44
49 / 42
47 / 42
51 / 42
52 / 40
(Perry)
47 / 40 / 7
(Obama / Romney / Johnson)
41 / 38 / 13
(Obama / Romney / Colbert)
01/17/12
47 / 48
52 / 43
48 / 46
51 / 45
--
01/17/12
46 / 45
51 / 37
--
50 / 38
42 / 35 / 14
(Obama / Romney / Paul)
01/13/12
47 / 46
---
--
43 / 34 / 18
(Obama / Romney / Paul)
Rasmussen
01/10-01/15


01/10/12
48 / 43
53 / 38
48 / 43
51 / 40
01/10/12
45 / 47
49 / 41
46 / 45
47 / 43
48 / 41
(Huntsman)
49 / 42
(Perry)
01/05-01/10
49 / 40
51 / 37
Rasmussen
01/04-01/xx
42 / 42


* Gallup swing states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.



Pollster
DATE
Romney
Gingrich
Paul
Santorum
Other
Bachmann
Cain
Perry
Rasmussen
12/27-12/31
(Hunstman)
12/21/11
52 / 45
56 / 40
52 / 45


57 / 38
57 / 39
Rasmussen
12/20-12/26

12/20/11
45 / 47
49 / 44
46 / 41

43 / 41 / 9 / 7
(Obama / Romney / Johnson / Undecided)
42 / 37 / 17 / 4
(Obama / Romney / Paul / Undecided)
43 / 41 / 8 / 8
(Obama / Romney / Bloomberg / Undecided)
44 / 43 / 4 / 8
(Obama / Romney / Anderson / Undecided)
42 / 37 / 11 / 8
(Obama / Romney / Huntsman / Undecided)
42 / 31 / 19 / 5
(Obama / Romney / Trump / Undecided)
42 / 42 / 7 / 9
(Obama / Romney / Sanders / Undecided)
50 / 41
50 / 40
12/20/11
47 / 47
51 / 43
49 / 44

---
---
---
12/20/11
50 / 48
50 / 48
---
---
---
---
---
12/14/11
48 / 40
51 / 38
---
---
---
---
50 / 37
12/14/11
47 / 46
51 / 42
---
---
---
---
Rasmussen
12/14-12/20

12/13/11
47 / 45
51 / 40
---
---
---
---
12/13/11
47 / 46
50 / 44
---
---
---
---
USA Today / Gallup- Swing states*
12/13/11
43 / 48
43 / 48
---
---
---
---
12/12/11
48 / 41
51 / 39
49 / 36

---
---
---
12/08/11
44 / 42
46 / 40
---
---
---
---
12/08/11
46 / 44
46 / 42
46 / 44

---
---
---
Rasmussen
12/08-12/13


12/07/11
46 / 42
48 / 42
54 / 35
55 / 34
50 / 32
(Hunstman)
56 / 30
54 / 30
53 / 35
12/06/11
---
50 / 42
---
48 / 43
(Generic)
---
---
---
11/30/11
46 / 42
48 / 40
---

49 / 38
---
---
Rasmussen
11/28-12/07
(Huntsman)
(Generic)
11/22/11
45 / 44
49 / 40
---

50 / 37
---
---
Purple Strategies (swing states)*
11/21/11
45 / 45
46 / 44
---

---
---
---
Rasmussen
11/21-/27

11/17/11
49 / 47
54 / 42
---
---
54 / 34
---
53 / 42

*Poll of 12 “swing states”: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin


New table as of 10/06/11 (from 10/01/11 on), with:

1.) Palin sorted out
2.) Cain sorted into the upper three
3.) Paul added
4.) 11/15/11 Gingrich sorted back in – place 3

Pollster
Date
Romney
Cain
Gingrich
Perry
Paul
Bachmann
Other
Pew





11/16/11
46 / 41
47 / 38
47 / 41

11/16/11
42 / 44
47 / 38
46 / 41
---
---
---
---
11/16/11
46 / 44
---
51 / 40
---
---
---
---
11/15/11
48 / 44
49 / 39
47 / 45
51 / 40
49 / 41
54 / 35
45 / 36 / 13
(Obama / Romney / Trump)

42 / 33 / 19 / 6
(Obama / Romney / Paul / und)
Rasmussen
11/15-11/xx

11/15/11
46 / 43
48 / 41
49 / 43
49 / 39
47 / 41
50 / 39

11/14/11
47 / 51
53 / 43
53 / 45
53 / 45
--
--

11/14/11
49 / 43
49 / 40
--
---
---
---
43 / 43
(Generic)
11/11/11
46 / 42
48 / 38
48 / 41
---
---
---

Rasmussen
11/08-11/14
--
--
(Generic)
11/07/11
49 / 43
53 / 38
--
---
---
44 / 32 / 18
(Obama / Romney / Paul)

44 / 35 / 13
(Obama / Romney / Paul)
11/07/11
46 / 47
50 / 45
--
51 / 43
---
---
---
11/04/11
43 / 44
46 / 41
--
41 / 41
---
---
---
11/04/11
46 / 47
48 / 45
--
49 / 44
---
---
---
11/04/11
47 / 47
48 / 46
--
49 / 45
---
---
---
11/02/11
47 / 42
50 / 40
52 / 37
52 / 36
---
---

Rasmussen
11/01-11/07
---
---
---

Rasmussen
10/24-10/31
--

10/20/11
45 / 45
---
--
---
---
---
---
Rasmussen
10/17-10/23
--
---
---
---
10/13/11
48 / 44
50 / 38
--
51 / 40
---
---
---
10/11/11
46 / 44
49 / 38
--
51 / 39
---
---
---
10/11/11
45 / 45
48 / 42
50 / 38
49 / 40
47 / 39
50 / 38

Rasmussen
10/10-10/16
---
---
(Generic)

10/06/11
48 / 48
---
--
50 / 46
---
---
---
10/05/11
42 / 46
---
--
46 / 45
---
---
---
10/04/11
46 / 48
---
--
49 / 46
---
---
46 / 46
(Christie)
Rasmussen
09/30-10/07
---
--
(Christie)
41 / 47
(Generic)
(Santorum)
(Johnson)

* Gallup swing states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

New Table as of 06/27/2011, with:
1.) Trump and Huckabee sorted out
2.) Gingrich, Pawlenty moved to “other”
3.) Bachmann and Perry.

Pollster
Date
Romney
Bachmann
Perry
Palin
Cain
other
10/05/11
42 / 46
---
46 / 45
---
---
---
10/04/11
46 / 48
---
49 / 46
---
---
46 / 46
(Christie)
Rasmussen
09/30-10/07
---
(Christie)
41 / 47
(Generic)
(Santorum)
(Johnson)
09/28/11
45 / 42
---
47 / 39
---
---
---
09/27/11
47 / 53
54 / 46
51 / 49
57 / 43
54 / 46
49 / 51
(Paul)
54 / 46
(Santorum)
54 / 46
(Huntsman)
55 / 45
(Gingrich)
09/23/11
44 / 43
---
46 / 42
---
---

09/20/11
46 / 44
53 / 40
51 / 40
49 / 44
42 / 49
(Giuliani)

Rasmussen
09/20-28/11
(Paul)
09/19/11
47 / 49
---
50 / 45
---
---
---
09/15/11
48 / 43
---
49 / 40
---
---
---
09/14/11
41 / 45
47 / 40
47 / 43
---
45 / 42
45 / 40
(Santorum)
46 / 39
(Gingrich)
42 / 39
(Paul)
37 / 32
(Huntsman)
09/14/11
49 / 43
54 / 36
50 / 42
---
---
51 / 37
(Huntsman)
49 / 42
(Paul)
Rasmussen
09/13-17/11

09/13/11
49 / 45
53 / 39
52 / 41
---
---
53 / 41
(Gingrich)
09/07/11
---
---
---
---
---
43 / 43
(Generic)
09/06/11
46 / 45
--
47 / 42
--
--
40 / 44
(generic)
09/06/11
46 / 47
50 / 43
46 / 46
53 / 41
--
47 / 42
(Huntsman)
09/01/11
43 / 39
46 / 38
41 / 44
47 / 35
42 / 35
---
45 / 45
48 / 39
45 / 42
51 / 37
---
---
08/31/11
44 / 46
46 / 41
40 / 45
46 / 39
44 / 44
40 / 40
(Paul)
43 / 43
(Ryan)
45 / 40
(Santorum)
38 / 30
(Huntsman)
45 / 38
(Gingrich)
40 / 49
(Christie)

08/25/11
See: other
---
---
See: other
---
45 / 45 / 10
(vs. Romney R), Bloomberg (I))

46 / 40 / 7
(vs. Romney (R), Huntsman (I))

45 / 41 / 7
(vs. Romney (R), Nader (I))

45 / 41 / 7
(vs. Romney (R), Nader (I))

47 / 26 / 21
(vs. Romney (R), Palin (I))

45 / 33 / 15
(vs. Romney (R), Paul (I))

45 / 41 / 9
(vs. Romney (R), Sanders (I))

46 / 30 / 18
(vs. Romney (R), Trump (I))
08/23/11
45/ 45
50 / 42
49 / 43
53 / 40
49 / 39
---
08/22-26/11
(Paul)
(Generic)
08/22/11
46 / 48
47/ 47

08/11/11
48 / 46
--
---
---
----
---
08/11/11
49 / 48
51 / 45
51 / 46
55 / 41
---

45 / 51
(Giuiani)
08/10/11
46 / 41
52 / 35
52 / 33
56 / 35
---
48 / 43
(Giuliani)

49 / 36
(Pawlenty)
08/09/11
---
---
---
---
---
48 / 45
(Generic)
07/28/11
--
--
--
--
--
41 / 40
(Generic)
07/25/11
44 / 36
45 / 37
---
---
---
---
07/22/11
---
---

47 / 38
49 / 28
41 / 37
(Paul)
44 / 39
(Giuliani)
44 / 28
(Huntsman)
44 / 32
(Pawlenty)
07/22/11
47 / 41
49 / 38
47 / 37
48 / 35
47 / 37
(Pawlenty)
07/21/11
--
46 / 39
--
--
--
43 / 39
(Perry)
07/21/11
51 / 44
56 / 39
--
--
--
53 / 41
(Paul)
55 / 38
(Perry)
07/20/11
--
--
--
--
48 / 37
48 / 38
(Perry)
07/20/11
48 / 41
50 / 35
---
--
---
---
07/20/11
42 / 43
--
--
--
--
--
07/20/11
45 / 45
48 / 41

53 / 37
53 / 37
48 / 39
(Pawlenty)
07/13/11
47 / 41
50 / 38
46 / 42
53 / 34
---
07/12/11
42 / 43
44 / 42
42 / 43
47 / 37
42 / 42
41 / 45
(Christie)
41 / 41
(Pawlenty)
40/ 40
(Paul)
44 / 39
(Santorum)
39 / 31
(Huntsman)
45 / 33
(Gingrich)
07/12/11
50 / 37

07/01/11
46 / 43
---
--
---
---
46 / 36
(Huntsman)
06/28/11
46 / 42
49 / 37
48 / 39
56 / 30
---
48 / 41
(Giuliani)
47 / 33
(Pawlenty)
06/27/11
--
47 / 39
--
--
--
43 / 39
(generic D / R)

46 / 36
(Huntsman)
06/27/11
47 / 45
--
--
--
--


National Polling 12/15/10 to 06/21/11
Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich.
Pawlenty
Palin
Cain
other
Trump
Huckabee
06/21/11
--
--
--
--
--
43 / 45
(generic R)


06/15/11
49 / 43
---
50 / 37
---
---
45 / 40
(generic R)
---
---
06/15/11
46 / 40
52 / 35
--
50 / 36
--
---
--
--
06/15/11
47 / 45
52 / 39
50 /39
52 / 38
48 / 38
--


06/10/11
45 / 39
50 / 30
56 / 29
---
47 / 33
50 / 34 (Christie)
51 / 32
(Bachmann)
53 / 33
48 / 35
(Ron Paul)


06/08/11
48 / 41
53 / 34
50 / 32
56 / 35

47 / 43
(Giuiliani)
49 / 34
(Christie)


06/07/11
47 / 41

48 / 36
53 / 36

48 / 34


06/07/11
51 / 38






06/06/11
47 / 47
52 / 42
51 / 40
56 / 39

50 / 40
52 / 39


06/02/11
48 / 44






06/02/11
47 / 38


54 / 37

47 / 39


05/26/11
49 / 42
51 / 37
---
54 / 37

---
---
---
05/19/11





43 / 35
45 / 28
49 / 27
45 / 32


05/20/11
45 / 42
51 / 35



48 / 36


05/18/11
46 / 43
52 / 38
47 / 31
--

50 / 30
48 / 30
--

05/16/11
52 / 41

52 / 39




05/12/11
---
52 / 32
----
----

-----
51 / 33
45 / 39
05/11/11
47 / 42
52 / 38
----
54 / 37

48 / 34
46 / 33 / 16
53 / 35
49 / 42
05/11/11
51 / 38
53 / 35
54 / 35

51 / 33
51 / 30
51 / 33
57 / 30
51 / 39
05/04/11
44 / 44


53 / 35

55 / 30
46 / 43
05/01/11
46 / 37
---

52 / 34

---
49 / 32
---
04/27/11
--
--

--

52 / 39
--
--
04/24/11
46 / 45
---
56 / 34

---
54 / 38
48 / 43
04/19/11
49 / 45
54 / 39

56 / 37

52 / 39
52 / 38
52 / 39
50 / 44
04/18/11
--
--

--

--
49 / 34
--
04/15/11
46 / 48
---

---

---

--
04/14/11
47 / 41
52 / 38

54 / 36

48 / 38
48 / 39

48 / 43
03/31/11
43 / 42
52 / 37

54 / 34

48 / 34
46 / 40

46 / 46
03/17/11
47 / 42
50 / 39

53 / 38

47 / 33

48 / 43
02/16/11
46 / 41
49 / 40

52 / 40

48 / 39

47 / 44
02/07-09/11
48 / 46
---
---
---
47 /47
02/06/11
44 / 42
47 / 39

49 / 36

40/43

43 /43
01/20/11
48 / 43
51/39

55 / 38

51/33

49 /44
01/14/11
51 / 38
--

56 / 30



50 / 38
01/03/11
41 / 41
----
45 / 38

40/43

42 /39
12/17/10
---
---
54 / 39

---

---
12/17/10
47/ 31

18


47 / 40
55 / 33

47/ 27

12/15/10
40/ 33
----
48 / 33

38/37

40 /34

** the three-man match-up Obama/Palin/Bloomberg is not in the average.


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