08 February 2012

2012 Missouri GOP primary - preliminary results vs. 2008

Missouri 2012:
Preliminary results, compared to 2008: cold, hard statistics.



Caucus Results
-FINAL-
Margin


Primary Results
-Preliminary-
Margin

John McCain
194,053
32.95%
McCain +8,411 (+1.43%)

Rick Santorum
138,957
55.17%
Santorum +75,131 (+29.82%)
 
 
Mike Huckabee
185,642
31.53%


Mitt Romney

63,826
25.34%
 
 
 
Mitt Romney
172,329
29.27%


Ron Paul

30,641
12.17%
 
 
 
Ron Paul
26,464
4.49%


Newt Gingrich
0
0.00%
 
 

Rudy Giuliani
3,593
0.61%


uncommitted
9,859
3.91%
 
--

Fred Thompson
3,102
0.53%


other
8,585
3.41%
 
--

Uncommitted
2,097
0.36%


TOTAL:


 
--

Other
1,564
0.27%


---


 


TOTAL:

588844
100.00%


TOTAL:

251,868
100.00%
 
52
(of 52)
100.00%




GOP Voter turnout by party is not possible for Missouri, Missouri does not do Voter Registration by party affiliation.



Raw vote count: -346,835 votes (-58.90% growth rate)



Rick Santorum won the Missouri non-binding primary contest with 55.17% and a blowout +29.82% percentage margin over Mitt Romney. Mr. Santorum's winning percentage is jslightly under that of George W. Bush, Jr. from the 2000 primary contest in MO, but his margin is larger than Bush's and is the largest win for a Republican in MO primary history since at least 1988. Mr. Santorum won every county in Missouri - a clean sweep.

To contrast, Mitt Romney's second place win is considerably worse that his third place win from 2008 in terms of raw votes, but only 2.90% worse on margin overall.

Ron Paul nearly tripled his percentage of the vote (12.17%) over his performance from 2008 (4.49%).

Newt Gingrich was not on the ballot in Missouri.

The number and percentage of uncommitted delegates shot up almost ELEVEN-FOLD in 2012 over 2008, from 0.36% of the primary vote in 2008 to 3.91% in 2012. A sizeable percentage of uncommitteds in a 3-5 man race usually indicates voter dissatisfaction with the field of candidates. We saw similar statistics for the 1988 Democratic field.

This primary will not decide the delegates, but rather, they will be formally allocated at the upcoming Congressional District Conventions on April 21, 2012. In the past, Missouri was a "winner take all state", where the winner of the primary was given all the state's delegates. John McCain received all 58 of Missouri's delegates in 2008. If the conventions in March and April hold to this tradition, then Santorum should receive all 52 of Missouri's delegates.

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