09 February 2012

2012 Minnesota GOP caucuses - preliminary results vs. 2008

Minnesota 2012:
Preliminary results, compared to 2008: cold, hard statistics.

Caucus Results
-FINAL-
Margin


Minnesota 2012

Caucus Results
-Preliminary-
Margin

Mitt Romney
25,990
41.37%
Romney +12,164 (+19.36%)

Rick Santorum
21,932
44.95%
Santorum +8,704 (+17.84%)
17
100.00%
John McCain
13,826
22.01%


Mitt Romney

13,228
27.11%
 
10
 
Mike Huckabee
12,493
19.88%


Ron Paul

8,222
16.85%
 
6
 
Ron Paul
9,852
15.68%


Newt Gingrich
5,272
10.80%
 
4

Alan Keyes
368
0.59%


other


 


Write-ins
299
0.48%


write-ins
141
0.29%
 


TOTAL:

62,828
100.00%


TOTAL:

48,795
100.00%
 
37
(of 40)
100.00%



GOP Voter turnout is not possible to gauge as Minnesota does not do voter registration by party affiliation.



Voter Turnout compared: 2012 over 2008:
Raw vote count: -14,033 votes (-22.34% growth rate)



Rick Santorum won the Minnesota "straw poll" primary/caucuses with 44.95% of the vote and a landslide +17.84% margin over Mitt Romney, who placed second. The percentage statistics compared to 2008 are similar to each other: in 2008, Romney won Minnesota with a percentage in the low fourties and his margin over John McCain was just about only 1.5 points greater than Santorum's margin from 2012. Plus, the two lower candidates were in the teens in both races (Huckabee, Paul in '08 / Paul, Gingrich in '12)


Mitt Romney slipped by 12,762 votes over 2008, which calculates to a 14.26% percentage slippage. That is a major shift over 2008. This is the second state that Mitt Romney won in 2008 that he has now lost in 2012.


Ron Paul only slightly improved his percentage over 2008 and moved from fourth to third place, but actually got less votes than the previous cycle. This is one of the few states where Ron Paul support has not double or even tripled.


Newt Gingrich showed continued slippage in his numbers and received only 10.80% of caucus votes.



Though no delegates were selected based on this straw-poll type of caucus,if the district and state conventions hold to the percentages from the primary/strawpoll, then the soft delegate delegations would look as they are depicted above in the table. Remember, those are only "soft" designations and are bound to change some. but at the 2008 Republican National Convention, Mitt Romney got ALL 41 of Minnesota's delegates pledged, so it is possible that Rick Santorum could be awarded all 40 of Minnesota's pledged delegates this time around. However, on the floor vote at the convention, 35 of MN's delegates voted for John McCain, 6 remained uncommitted. Here part of the MN rules for delegates: Unbounded. The 13 at large delegates to be selected on 05/24-26/2012 may be bound, if directed by the convention. This means that at least 27 of 40 delegates from MN can freely change their mind, even on the day of the convention.

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