06 February 2012

2012 GOP Nevada Caucuses: Preliminary results vs. 2008

Nevada GOP caucuses 2012
Preliminary results (100% reporting), compared to 2008: cold, hard statistics.

Results and other stats are hyperlinked; feel free to check them out for yourselves. The summary contains interesting information. I promised to report the GOP contests with every bit as much vigor and clarity as I did for the Democratic Primaries in 2008 and the ensuing 2008 GE, and am keeping my word. All of this is non-partisan information. No judgement value. These are simply the hard, cold stats.




Caucus Results
-FINAL-
Margin


Caucus Results
-Preliminary-
Margin

Mitt Romney
22,646
51.10%
Romney +16,562
(+37.37%)

Mitt Romney
16,496
50.15%
Romney +9,540
(+29.00%)
14
100.00%
Ron Paul
6,084
13.73%


Newt Gingrich

6,956
21.15%
 
6
 
John McCain
5,650
12.75%


Ron Paul

6,175
18.77%
 
5
 
Mike Huckabee
3,616
8.16%


Rick Santorum
3,277
9.93%
 
3

Fred Thompson
3,519
7.94%


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Rudy Giuliani
1,910
4.31%


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Duncan Hunter
890
2.01%


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Unallocated
-
-


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TOTAL:

44,315

100.00%


TOTAL:

32,894
100.00%
 
28
(of 28)
100.00%





GOP Voter turnout, 2012 Caucuses:

32,894 / 471,292 = 6.98% VT (all GOP voters)
32,894 / 400,310 = 8.22% VT (all GOP ACTIVE voters)


GOP voter turnout, 2008 Caucuses:

44,315 / 482,487 = 9.18% VT (all GOP voters)
44,315 / 395,942 = 11.19% VT (all GOP ACTIVE voters)



Voter Turnout compared: 2012 over 2008:
all GOP voters: -2.20%
all GOP active voters: -2.97%
Raw vote count: -11,421 votes (-25.77% growth rate)


Summary

Mitt Romney won the Nevada caucuses with a majority win of 50.15% and a landslide +29.00% margin over Newt Gingrich, who took second place. This is Mr. Romney's first majority win of the GOP nomination contests thus far and also his largest winning percentage margin to-date.

Romney's winning percentage from 2012 is only 0.95% less than his winning percentage from 2008, but his winning margin is 8.37% LESS. Reason: improved percentage for the second place winner.

Newt Gingrich won 21.15% of the vote. There are no statistics from 2008 to compare him with.

In spite of taking third place in 2012, where he had second place in 2008, Ron Paul actually increased his percentage (18.77% in 2012 over 13.73% in 2008) and number of raw votes over 2008. And he is projected to get one more delegate than in 2008.

Rick Santorum won 9.93% of the vote. There are no statistics from 2008 to compare him with.

11,421 LESS caucus votes were cast in 2012 over 2008. That is a growth rate of -25.77%: in other words, GOP caucus attendance shrunk by a quarter, in spite of the fact that there are more active registered Republicans in 2012 than there were at the time of the caucuses in 2008. (See: GOP VT statistics above). This is the second GOP nomination contest in a row where turnout was less than in 2008 (see: Florida)

In terms of the counties in Nevada, Ron Paul won two counties: he retained Nye county from 2008 and picked-up neighboring Esmerelda county. Newt Gingrich won Mineral county. Mitt Romney retained the remaining 13 counties.

There were obvious problems with organization of basic electioneering at the caucuses, which resulted in a delayed vote count and ensuing tally in Clark County, but there was also a considerable delay in Lander County, for which no explanation at all has been given. Once all the details have been sorted out, I will be writing an analysis of what happened.

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