03 January 2012

2012 GOP Primary Season Calendar - massive update

The first calendar was posted HERE on August 15, 2011.


Here is the updated calendar. The date for WV is still uncertain.  I have taken out the running total, for there is no certainty that all the delegates will be decided at each contest, so a running total would be a guestimate at best. 

The day that comes closest to Super Tuesday is March 6, 2012. 
Just shy of 400 delegates will be contested for on that day.

All said and done, there are supposed to be 2,286 delegates to the Republican National Convention - at least by the current calculations set out by the states. This is an even number, which means that a perfect 1,143 to 1,143 tie is physically possible but highly unlikely. The magic number for the nomination is:

1,144 delegates.

Here's the catch:

According to THE GREEN PAPERS,  1,783 of those delegates must be pledged before the convention. There are, however, 503 GOP superdelegates, and they do not necessarily need to pledge. But most likely, just as was the case with the Democratic Party primary process, a great many of those "Supers" will declare their intentions in advance.  But just theoretically, without knowing about even one of those Supers, the candidate who wants to win the nomination would need to win 64.16% of all the delegates who are automatically pledged in order to be guaranteed the nomination even before the Supers come into play. But that is just theoretical. In reality, the guy who is ahead can most likely depend on at least 100 Supers being on his side, which would mean that he would need to sweep 58.55% of the pledged delegates before the convention.

When you look at the table, notice the number of states that have added bounding on the 1st, 2nd and or 3rd ballots.

Republican Primaries / Caucuses 2012

Date
State
Type (O, S, C)
Allocation
Bound at Convention?
Delegates
01/03/2012
IA
Caucuses
Free and unbounded


Voters may change party on the day of the primary election or caucus.


Change as of 10/08/11: Caucuses moved from 02/06/12 to 01/03/12
N/A
28 (final allotment 06/08 and 09/2012)
01/10/2012
NH
Primary
Proportional (20 of 23) + 3 unpledged (Threshold = 10%). Any remaining after fractional allocation = WTA


Note: 11/02/11: Primary date moved to January 10, 2012
N/A
23


12
(50% penalty for frontloading)
01/21/2012
SC (O)
Primary
WTA by CD (21 of 50) / 26 delegates WTA statewide (26 of 50) / 3 unpledged


Republicans want to close their primaries in SC, but a U.S. District Court judge ruled that they cannot do that and must resort to a convention or caucus if they want to keep out independent voters, who currently may pick a party on Election Day. As of May 31, 2011, the GOP had asked the judge to reconsider.
1st ballot.
2nd ballot if candidate gets 30% at convention.
50
25


(50% penalty for frontloading)
01/24/2012
LA state caucuses
(tentative)

WV County Conventions
(tentative)




01/31/2012
FL
Primary
81 of 99: WTA per CD / 18 of 99 WTA statewide


Note: Fl made the final decision to „frontload“ on 09/30/11. Details here. According to RNC rules 15 (1)(a) and 16 (a), FL will forfeit 50% of it's delegates.
Change 12/30/11: bound through the 3rd ballot!
99
50
(50% penalty for frontloading)
02/04/2012
NV
Caucuses / the State Convention is on 04/28/2012
Proportional (25 of 28) bounded. 3 unpledged


Note: as a reaction to Florida's frontloading, NV has moved it's date from 02/18/2012 to 01/14/2012


Moved back to 02/04/12
N/A
28
02/07/2012
ME
Caucuses & Convention
Party selection (24 of 24) - all go to the convention as „unpledged“
---
24
02/07/2012
MO (O)
Primary - NON_BINDING
WTA statewide (53 of 53)
N/A
52
02/25/2012
N. Marianas
Commonwealth Convention
Free choice (6 of 9) / 3 unpledged
N/A
9
02/28/2012
AZ (S)
Primary
WTA Statewide (24 of 27), 3 unpledged
54 bound. 3 unbound
57


29
(50% penalty for frontloading)
02/28/2012
MI (O)
MI (closed)
Primary (C)
WTA per CD (42 of 59) / Statewide proportional (14 of 59), threshold: 15% / 3 unpledged


Note: on 08/13/11, MI GOP moved to close the primary.


Note: on 10/04/11, MI moved it's GOP primary to 02/28/11 and will lose 1/2 of it's delegates.
1st ballot.
59


30
(50% penalty for frontloading)
03/06/2012
WA
Precinct Caucuses


see also: 05/31 State Convention
The primary was cancelled. 40 delegates will be selected, no specific method / 3 unpledged
N/A
43
03/06/2012
MA (O)
Primary
Proportional per CD (27 of 41) / Proportional statewide (11 of 41) / 3 unpledged.
N/A


Change 11/03/11:
Bound for the 1st ballot.
41
03/06/2012
OK
Primary
WTA per CD (15 of 40) / WTA statewide (25 of 40) / 3 unpledged

43
03/06/2012
TN (O)
Primary
If one candidate gets over 2/3, then WTA, both per CD (27 of 58) and statewide (15 of 58) / if not, then proportional (threshold = 20%) / 3 unpledged / the other 13 delegates are selected by committee on 04/07/2012
At least 2 ballots. (TCA §§2/13/307(b) )
58
03/06/2012


(was: 06/12/2012)
OH
Primary
WTA per CD (48of 66) / WTA statewide (15 of 66) / 3 unpledged


Note: changed from 05/08/12 back to 03/06/12 on 09/21/11.


Changed again: SEN on 03/06, Prez and House on
N/A
66
03/06/2012
VA (O)
Primary
WTA (all 49 delegates), no unpledged delegates.


Note: this was changed on 09/30/11:


33 pledged delegates: WTA per DC.


13 unpledged: WTA statewide if winner gets an absolute majority. If not, then proportional. Cut-off: 15%.


3 floating unpledged.



In VA -Parties may choose to nominate by convention rather than by primary election.
1st ballot, unless released by the candidate before. As of the 2nd ballot, unbound.
49
03/06/2012
VT (O)
Primary
WTA (all 17 delegates), no unpledged delegates.
2 ballots, then unbound
17
03/06/2012
ID (O)
ID (closed)
Non-binding Primary
Closed Caucuses
Proportional for 80% of delegates (24 of 29) based on Statewide vote. The remaining 5 will be selected 06/14/12 at the State convention / 3 unpledged


Note: moved from 05/15/12 up to 03/06/12 on 09/28/11.


At the same time, the ID GOP moved from an open primary to closed caucuses.
1st ballot for pledged delegates.
32
03/06/2012
GA (O)
Primary
WTA per CD (42 of 75), WTA statewide (33 of 75)


Note: moved from 02/07/12 to 03/06/12 on 09/30/11.
N/A
76
03/06/2012
ND (O)
Caucuses
If one candidate gets over 2/3, then WTA (25 of 28) / if not, then proportional (threshold = 15%). 3 unpledged


Note: moved from 02/07/12 to 03/06/12 on 09/30/11.
1st ballot
28
03/06/2012
AK
District Conventions (State convention on 03/15-17/2012
Proportional (25 of 28), 3 unpledged


Note: changed from 02/07 to 03/06 without press notification on 09/20/11.
N/A
27
03/06/12
WY
County Conventions
Free and unbound


Note: County conventions moved from 01/07/12 to 03/06/12.
no
29
03/10/2012
(was: 02/11/2012)
KS
Caucuses / State Party Committee Meeting on 05/24/2012
WTA per CD (12 of 40), WTA statewide (28 of 40). Note the special rules for TIES.
„If no candidate received the most votes in 2 or more congressional districts, then 25 delegates will go to the national convention not bound to any candidate. „
40
03/10/2012
Guam
Territorial Caucus
Free choice (6 of 9) / 3 unpledged
N/A
9
03/10/2012


(was: 04/07/2012)
Virgin Islands
Territorial Caucuses
Selected (6 of 9) / 3 unpledged
N/A
9
03/13/2012
HI
Precinct Caucuses
Proportional (17 of 20) / 3 unpledged
1st ballot, afterward unbound.
20
03/13/2012


(was: 02/25/2012)
Am. Samoa
Territorial Caucus
Free choice (6 of 9) / 3 unpledged
N/A
9
03/13/2012
AL (O)
Primary
WTA by CD (21 of 50): threshold 20%. Under 20%, then proportional / WTA statewide (26 of 50) / 3 unpledged
N/A
50
03/13/2012
MS (O)
Primary
WTA by CD (12 of 37) / WTA statewide (22 of 37) if majority win. If minority win, then proportional (threshold: 15%) / 3 unpledged


Update: number of MS delegates changed 11/08/11 from 37 to 39.
N/A
40

03/17/2012
MO (O)
County Caucuses


see: non-binding Primary
(02/07/2012)
WTA statewide (53 of 53)
N/A
already calculated
03/18/2012


(was: Territorial Caucus 02/26/2012)
Puerto Rico
Primary
20 of 23: WTA
Bound. No rules for unbounding. No release specifications.
23
03/20/2012
IL
Loophole“ Primary
56 of 69 though loophole. Go read the link. 3 unpledged
N/A
69
03/24/2012
LA
Primary
If majority win, then WTA statewide (20 of 45), if not, then those 20 go unpledged to the State Convention (April 2012 – the other 22 delegates) / 3 unpledged


Change 11/01/11:


Delegates 50% proportional. If no candidate gets over 25%, then all delegates are unbounded at the convention.
N/A
46
03/29/2012 to 04/13/2012
CO
District Conventions


see also: State Republican Convention 04/14/2012
21 of 36 delegates will be chosen: no formal system.
---
21 of 36
04/2012, no specific day yet
LA
State Convention
22 delegates (22 of 45), free choice
N/A
Already calculated
04/03/2012
DC
Potomac Primary
WTA (16 of 19) / 3 unpledged
Bound until released. If candidate withdraws, then unpledged.
19
04/03/2012
MD
Potomac Primary
WTA per CD (24 of 37) / WTA statewide (10 of 37) / 3 unpledged
First 2 ballots. No longer bound if the candidate either releases the delegates or receives less than 35% of the vote at the National Convention.




37
04/03/2012
WI (O)
Primary
WTA by CD (24 of 42) / WTA statewide (18 of 42)


Note: moved from 02/21/12 to 04/03/12 on 10/01/11.
Bound until released by the candidate or if the candidate goes under 1/3 of the total vote at the convention, then automatically unbound.
42
04/03/2012


(was: 03/06/2012)
TX (O)
Primary
If majority win (over 50%), then WTA per CD (108 of 152) and statewide (41 of 152). If minority win, then 2 +1 per CD for the top two winners (threshold: 20%) and proportional for the statewide delegates (threshold: 20%).
N/A
155
04/07/2012
TN (O)
State Executive Committee
13 of 58 (see: 03/06/2012)
At least 2 ballots. (TCA §§2/13/307(b) )
(13 - already calculated)
04/14/2012
CO
State Republican Convention
15 of 36 delegates will be chosen: no formal system.
---
15 of 36
04/14/2012 to 04/21/2012

MN (O)
District Conventions
Free-choice (24 of 40). The thirteen at-large delegates will be chosen at the State Convention. 3 unpledged
Unbound. The 13 at large delegates to be selected on 05/24-26/2012 may be bound, if directed by the convention.
40
04/24/2012
CT
East Coast Primary
WTA (25 of 28) / 3 unpledged


Change as of 10/06/11: WTA per CD (plurality win), at large delegates WTA my majority win in the state as a whole: if not, then at-large delegates proportionally distributed
1st ballot
28
04/24/2012
DE
East Coast Primary
WTA (17 of 17)
Change 12/31/11: bound on the 1st ballot.
17
04/24/2012
NY
East Coast Primary
WTA per CD (81 of 95) if majority vote in that CD. If no majority, then 2 + 1 for the top two candidates (threshold: 20%). If no one gets at least 20%, then the party divies up the delegates for that CD / WTA stateside for the at-large (11of 95) if majority win. If not, then proportional. 3 unpledged delegates.
N/A
95
04/24/2012
PA
East Coast LOOPHOLE Primary (like MI)
59 congressional delegates / 10 at large / 3 party leaders – all go to the convention as „unpledged“
----
72
04/24/2012
RI
East Coast Primary
Proportional by state district (16 of 19) / 3 unpledged
Bound until released by the candidate under the 75% affirmation rule.
19
05/08/2012
IN (O)
Primary
WTA per CD (27 of 46) / the other delegates will be chosen in June
Bound on the first ballot. (change 11/30/11)
46
05/08/2012
NC
Primary
Proportional (55 of 55)
N/A
55
05/08/2012
(tentative)
WV
Primary
Confusion, WV has changed the date many times, it may change yet again. Looks like WTA per CD (9of 31) / WTA statewide (19 of 31) / 3 unpledged
N/A
31
05/15/2012
OR
Primary
Proportional (29 of 29) per statewide results. Threshold = 3.5% !!
Bound until released or candidate falls under 35% at the national convention. Change 12/30/11: bound through the 2nd ballot, 35% threshold maintained.
28
05/15/2012
NE
Non-Binding Primary
Loophole Primary



The 35 delegates will be selectied on 07/14/2012 at the State Convention. This primary is only cosmetic.
---
---
05/22/2012
AR (O)
Primary
WTA per CD (12 of 36) if majority win. If not, then 2 +1 for the top 2 candidates. At large delegates (21 of 36): each candidate with at least 10% of the statewide vote gets 1 delegate. If majority win, then the winner gets the rest. If no majority win, then proportional for the rest under the top 3 candidates. / 3 unpledged
Bound unless released by the candidate.

36
05/22/2012
KY
Primary
Proportional (42 of 45) by statewide results. Threshold = 15%. / 3 unpledged.
N/A
45
05/22-23/2012
NY
State Committee
The remaining 11 delegates will be selected as „unpledged“. See: 04/24/2012
---
(11, already calculated)
05/24-26/2012
MN
State Convention
The remaining 13 at-large delegates will be selected by the party.
1st ballot.
Already calculated
05/25-26/2012
WY
State Convention (the county conventions were 01/07/2012)
Remaining 17 delegates chosen. No specific method.
N/A
Already calculated
05/31-06/02-2012
WA
State Convention
The primary was cancelled. 40 delegates will be selected, no specific method / 3 unpledged
N/A
Already calculated
06/05/2012
CA
Primary
WTA per CD (159 of 172) / WTA statewide for the at-large (10 of 172) / 3 unpledged
Bound for 2 ballots or until candidate falls under 10% at the convention on the 1st ballot, or releases the delegates.
172
06/05/2012
MT
Primary - NON BINDING
Not specified. I assume WTA for all 26 delegates.
1st ballot, then can be released by the candidate.
--
06/05/2012
NM
Primary
Proportional per Statewide vote (20 of 23): threshold = 15%. / 3 unpledged
Change 12/31/11: bound on the 1st ballot
23
06/05/2012
SD (O)
Primary
Proportional per Statewide vote (25 of 28): threshold = 20%. / 3 unpledged
N/A
28
06/05/2012
NJ
Primary
WTA statewide (50 of 50) / pledged


Note: moved from 07/07/12 to 06/05/12 on 09/27/11.
N/A
50
06/14-16/2012
MT
State Delegate Convention


Non-Binding Primary was on 06/05/2012
Not specified. I assume WTA for all 26 delegates.
1st ballot, then can be released by the candidate.
26
06/26/2012
UT
Primary
WTA per statewide vote (39 of 39)
1st ballot.
40
07/14/2012
NE
State Convention
The 35 delegates will be selectied.
Bound for 2 ballots.
35

Any more updates will just be inserted into this calendar.

greetings,

Bonncaruso


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