23 January 2012

The 2012 Florida Primary

The 2012 Florida Primary, 01/31/2012
Status: Closed Primary




Going into the 01/31/2012 Florida primary, here are the locked-in Voter Registration statistics:


Total RV: 11,241,022 (100.00%)
Total DEM: 4,553,563 (40.51%)
Total GOP: 4,063,853 (36.15%)
No Preference: 2,270,719 (20.20%)
Total Other: 352,887 (3.14%)


Margin: DEM RV +489,710 (+4.36%). The RV margin was DEM +5.06% in June 2011see the information here. So, the statistics have changed, but not all too radically. This means that 4,063,853 Floridians are eligible to vote in the GOP primary, which will certainly be of more overall interest than the Democratic Primary.


BENCHMARKS: in 2008,

1,949,498 votes
 were cast in the GOP primary.
1,749,920 votes were cast in the DEM primary.


Here is the Florida Elections website.
Here are the Florida specs on early voting. And the exact early voting times by county.

Here is the candidate list for all parties for the upcoming Primary.


There are nine Republican candidate names on the ballot for the GOP primary:
Bachmann, Cain, Gingrich, Hunstman, Johnson, Paul, Perry, Romney, Santorum.


There is one name on the ballot for the Democratic primary:
Obama


There are 12 names either for NPA (no party affiliation) or WRI (write-in). None of those names have name-recognition.


Florida has a huge list of 3rd party organizations, but their effect on primaries is negligible as the primaries are closed.


According to the GREEN PAPERS, Florida has been holding Presidential primaries on and off since 1904, but the most consistent data is from 1956 to the present day.


1972 was the year when Florida moved from a late position to an early position in the primary calendar, and it has stayed there ever since.


2000 was the year when for the first time, more votes were cast in a FL GOP primary than in the DEM primary.


But how do Presidential contenders actually do in Florida? Here is a chart:

Year
DEM winner
DEM nominee
Year
GOP winner
GOP nominee
Roosevelt - 88%
Murray - 12%
Roosevelt
1932
no primary
Hoover
---
---
---
---
---
---
Russell - 55%
Kefauver - 45%
Stevenson
no primary
Eisenhower
Stevenson - 52%
Kefauver - 48%
Stevenson
(Kefauver was VP nominee)
Eisenhower - 92%
Knowland - 8%
Eisenhower
Smathers - 100%
(delegates went to LBJ)
JFK
Nixon - unopposed
Nixon
LBJ - unopposed
LBJ
Uncommitted - 58%
Goldwater - 42%
Goldwater
Smathers - 46%
McCarthy - 29%
No Preference - 25%
Humphrey
Unpledged - 100%
Nixon
Wallace - 42%
Humphrey - 19%
Jackson, Scoop - 13%
Muskie -
Lindsay - 7%
McGovern - 6%
Chisolm - 3%
McGovern
1972
Nixon - 87%
Ashbrook - 9%
McCloskey - 4%
Nixon
Carter - 35%
Wallace - 31%
Jackson, Scoop - 24%
Carter
Ford - 53%
Reagan - 47%
Ford
Carter - 61%
Kennedy - 23%
No preference - 9.5%
Brown - 5%
Kay - 1.5%
Carter
Reagan - 56%
Bush, Sr. - 30%
Reagan
Hart - 39%
Mondale - 33%
Jackson - 12%
Glenn - 11%
Askew - 2%
McGovern - 2%
all others - 1%
Mondale
Reagan - unopposed
Reagan
Dukakis - 41%
Jackson - 20%
Gephardt - 14%
Gore - 13%
Undecided - 6%
Hart - 3%
Simon - 2%
Babbitt - 1%
Dukakis
Bush, Sr. - 62%
Dole - 21%
Robertson - 10.5%
Kemp - 4.5%
DuPont - 1%
Haig - 1%
Bush, Sr.
Clinton - 51%
Tsongas - 35%
Brown - 12%
Harkin - 1%
Brown - 1%
Clinton
Bush, Sr. - 68%
Buchanan - 32%
Bush, Sr.
Clinton - unopposed
Clinton
Dole - 57%
Forbes - 20%
Buchanan - 18%
Alexander - 2%
Dole
Gore - 82%
Bradley - 18%
Gore
Bush, Jr. - 74%
McCain - 20%
Keyes - 5%
Bush, Jr.
Kerry - 77%
Edwards - 10%
Sharpton - 3%
Dean - 3%
Kerry
Bush, Jr. - unopposed
Bush, Jr.
Clinton - 50%
Obama - 33%
Edwards - 14%
Biden - 1%

Obama
McCain - 36%
Romney - 31%
Giuliani - 15%
Huckabee - 13%
Paul - 3%
Thompson - 1%
McCain
Obama - unopposed
Obama
???
???


Since 1972, the winner of the GOP Florida primary has gone on to be the party's nominee, but actually, the statistic goes back to 1952: offcially, FL is listed as having had a primary in 1968 and there, "uncommitted" won 100%, but in reality, there was no primary in the state and there are no electoral records to be found for GOP primary votes in 1968. If anyone knows of exact voting information about this issue, please contact me here. Also, in 1964, voters in FL were still unsatisfied with Goldwater and so 58% gave their votes for "no-preference", but Goldwater, as the only name on the ballots, did get 42%. So, it could be just as fair to say that FL has gone with the winner of the nomination every time since 1952.


Statistically, FL is more of a "make or break" state than SC and has a longer record of selecting the eventual GOP nominee!


On the Democratic side, the picture is less clear: since 1988, the winner of the FL DEM primary went on to become the party's candidate, but before 1988, FL bucked the trend four times: in 1984, 1972, 1968 and 1952. But the earliest data we have from FL is from 1932, where FDR won in the primary with 88%. However, the GREEN PAPERS states that as early as 1904, FL held presidential primaries, so I am now searching for that information.


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BtW, did you know who the overall winner in the national popular vote for the 1968 Republican primaries was?


Not Nixon. Not Romney. Not Rockefeller. Not Rhodes.


It was REAGAN. Back in 1968. This happened because Reagan was the only candidate on the ballot in his home state of California and so he got 100% of the vote. In the other 7 primaries where Reagan was on the ballot in 1968, he fared poorly.


And in 1952, Eisenhower got the GOP nomination, but he did not win in the national popular vote for the Republican primaries. Robert Taft of Ohio beat him handily in the NPV.


Dr. Errington S. Thompson (whereistheoutrage.net) did a good small piece on the history of the Florida primary back in 2008. It is worth the quick read.


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FACIT: FLORIDA will be more decisive than probably thought. Even with the 50% penalty, 50 delegates WTA all in one fell-swoop will either catapult Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich to the front of the pack. Expect a flood of polling to come in this week and a real media circus as well, for this is the last big contest until Michigan on 02/28 (with NV and ME and AZ between, but between the 3 of them, 74 delegates will be awarded)



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Florida polling as of 01/23/2012:




Pollster
Date
Group
Gingrich
Romney
Paul
Santorum
Other
Someone else
Margin
01/22/12
557 LV
34.40
25.60
13.10
10.70
2.40
13.80
+8.80
01/23/12
750 LV
41.00
32.00
11.00
8.00
8.00

+9.00


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