Well, it happened, in fact just shortly after I published on 12/24. More than 300,000 more votes were tallied by counties, most of them in the New York City area, where Obama picked up most of those votes, and his margin has jumped from +26.25% on 12/24 to +28.15% now:
|DEM||GOP||IND||Total||DEM %||GOP %||IND %||Margin||Mar %|
|New York 2012||4464680||2480342||104572||7049594||63,33%||35,18%||1,48%||1984338||28,15%|
|New York 2008||4804945||2752771||83232||7640948||62,88%||36,03%||1,09%||2052174||26,86%|
New York State now joins Alaska, Lousiana, Maryland, Mississippi and New Jersey in the column of six states where Obama's statistic vis-a-vis 2008 actually improved, despite winning nationally by a lesser margin than in 2008.
Those numbers from New York, which are not yet finished, but close to it, I bet, now put Obama at 51.06% nationally:
|USA||DEM||GOP||IND||Total||DEM %||GOP %||IND %||Margin||Mar %||% of NPV||growth rate|
This means that we have now crossed over 129 million votes in 2012, 2.4 million votes shy of 2008, which is a negative growth rate of 1.87%. Obama's margin over Romney is now at 4.96 million, moving toward 4.97 million, and his national margin percentage, which was +2.52% on November 9th, is now +3.85% at the end of the year, a jump of 1.33% in margin. When you add the raw vote margins from California and New York State together, you get: +4,998,665. So, in a certain way, you could say that the Obama and Romney margins from the other 48 states plus DC pretty much cancelled each other out, and Obama reaped his 5 million vote margin from these two bulwark Democratic states.
Actually, a 4 point race is not very close at all. The national pollsters really should have been able to do better than this. When the final canvass is in and these statistics are locked down forever (chuckle), then I will start to dissect the polling results compared to the actual results, state by state and nationally. But I can tell you now, the Report Card for Rasmussen and Gallup, to name a few, looks pretty damned terrible..
Here are the complete documents, in Google Docs.
GEEXCEL TABLE 12/30/2012
PARTISAN RANKINGS 12/30/2012