29 December 2011

Rank 48 / 4: Idaho

Idaho:




Results of the last 9 presidential cycles:


Year
Rank
Winning %
% Margin
Part. Value
Swing“
National Swing
Trend
2008
48 / 04
61.21%
+25.30%
+32.56%
-12.82%
+9.72%
+3.10
2004
49 / 03
68.38%
+38.12%
+35.66%
-1.41%
+2.98%
+4.39
2000
49 / 03
67.17%
+39.53%
+40.05%
+20.99%
+8.00%
+12.99
1996
49 / 03
52.18%
+18.54%
+27.06%
+4.93%
+2.96%
+7.89
1992
49 / 03
42.03%
+13.61%
+19.17%
-12.46%
+13.29%
+0.83
1988
49 / 03
62.08%
+26.07%
+18.34%
-19.90%
-10.49%
+9.41
1984
50 / 02
72.37%
+45.97%
+27.75%
+4.70%
+8.48%
+3.78
1980
50 / 02
66.46%
+41.27%
+31.53%
+18.51%
+11.80%
+6.71
1976
50 / 02
59.88%
+22.76%
+24.82%
-15.44%
+25.21%
+9.77

Blue shading = DEM pick-up over the cycle before.
Red shading = GOP pick-up over the cycle before.



Idaho margin average, 1988-2008 (6 cycles): 
GOP +26.70% 
Idaho margin average, 1976-2008 (9 cycles): 
GOP +30.13% 



Trend: 
REPUBLICAN

ID county-by-county EXCEL spreadsheet
(raw totals for 2008 and 2004, margins, swings, % of state PV, county growth rate)


The partisan rankings for Rankings 48 (ID) and 49 (UT) from 2008 backwards in history to 1964 in Table-format (highlighted in yellow and green) are HERE.


Links


Helpful Info Links
Helpful Election Links
ID population 2008: 1,523,816
ID Population Density: 7.1 persons per sq. Km.
ID election archive (1990 – present): county to precinct level.
Electoral Vote Density: 380,954 persons per EV.
---

ID ELECTORAL DEVELOPMENT (electors through history) :  3 (1892-1908), 4 EV (1912-present)


SUMMARY

Idaho is the 4th most conservative state and the 48th most liberal state, with a Republican winning margin of +25.30% and having voted 32.56% more Republican than the national margin in 2008. 

Idaho was the 3rd most conservative state and the 49th most liberal state in 2004, with a Republican winning margin of +38.12% and having voted 35.66% more Republican than the national margin in that year.

Idaho was also the 3rd most conservative state and the 49th most liberal state in 2000, with a Republican winning margin of +39.53% and having voted 40.05% more Republican than the national margin in that year.


In its entire electoral history, from 1892-present, Idaho went went for the GOP 
19 times, for the DEMS  10  times and 1 time for an Independent candidate.

From 1904 - 2008, Idaho went for the GOP 
19 times, for the DEMS 8  times.

Since 1948, Idaho went for the GOP 
14 timesfor the DEMS  2  times.

Since 1960, Idaho went for the GOP 
12 times, for the DEMS 1  time.


The area formerly known as the „Idaho Territory“ officially became the 43rd state of the Union on July 3, 1890. 7 days later, Wyoming became the 44th state and 6 years later, Utah became the 45th state. 


The 14th largest state in the Union by area, but the 39th largest by population, Idaho has shown parallel demographic and political growth in its history to the neighboring states of Wyoming and Utah, but a much more symbiotic electoral relationship with Utah.


Idaho has had an overwhelmingly Republican voting record, having selected the Republican candidate for 19 of the 30 cycles in which Idaho has voted in. Though VT has gone Republican 33 times and holds the record for the longest GOP streak (27 cycles from 1856-1960), ID, along with 8 other states, has the longest current running Republican voting record: KS, NE, SD, ND, WY, ID, UT, OK and AK have all voted GOP for 11 consecutive cycles since 1968. Every single one of these states was captured in the Johnson (D) landslide of 1964 – had that not happened, then ID would have had 18 consecutive cycles, all the way back through 1940. I call these states that have gone 11 straight cycles for the GOP „The 11ers“ and most likely, every single one of those states will become a „12er“ after 2012. Two states are not on that list, but both were „10er“s from 2004: IN and VA, both of which Obama picked-up in 2008. Here is a table of those 9 states: 

9 Conservative States: “The 11ers”.


Year
Kansas
Nebraska
South Dakota
North Dakota
Wyoming
Idaho
Utah
Oklahoma
Alaska
2008
14.92%
14.93%
8.41%
8.65%
32.24%
25.30%
28.02%
31.29%
21.54%
2004
25.38%
33.22%
21.47%
27.36%
39.79%
38.12%
45.54%
31.14%
25.55%
2000
20.80%
28.99%
22.73%
27.60%
40.06%
39.53%
40.49%
21.88%
30.95%
1996
18.21%
18.70%
3.46%
6.81%
12.98%
18.54%
21.07%
7.81%
17.53%
1992
5.14%
17.18%
3.52%
12.03%
5.60%
13.61%
16.03%
8.62%
9.17%
1988
13.23%
20.96%
6.34%
13.06%
22.52%
26.07%
34.17%
16.65%
23.32%
1984
33.67%
41.74%
26.47%
31.04%
42.27%
45.97%
49.83%
37.94%
36.79%
1980
24.56%
39.49%
28.83%
37.97%
34.67%
41.27%
52.20%
25.53%
27.94%
1976
7.55%
20.74%
1.48%
5.85%
19.49%
22.76%
28.79%
1.21%
22.25%
1972
38.15%
41.00%
8.63%
26.28%
38.54%
38.20%
41.25%
49.70%
23.51%
1968
20.13%
28.01%
11.31%
17.71%
20.25%
26.13%
19.42%
15.70%
2.64%
1964
9.03%
5.21%
11.22%
16.09%
13.12%
1.83%
9.73%
11.49%
31.82%
1960
21.35%
24.14%
16.43%
10.90%
10.03%
7.57%
9.64%
18.04%
1.88%
1956
31.23%
31.03%
16.77%
23.63%
20.16%
22.39%
29.12%
10.26%

1952
38.27%
38.31%
38.54%
42.58%
25.62%
31.00%
17.85%
9.18%

1948
9.02%
8.31%
4.80%
8.76%
4.35%
2.73%
8.96%
25.49%

1944
21.07%
17.16%
16.66%
8.35%
2.47%
3.49%
21.02%
11.36%

1940
14.47%
14.37%
14.82%
10.88%
5.93%
9.05%
24.67%
15.18%

1936
7.72%
16.40%
11.52%
33.03%
23.10%
29.77%
39.55%
34.14%

1932
9.43%
27.70%
29.23%
41.58%
15.25%
20.39%
15.47%
46.59%

1928
44.96%
27.01%
20.98%
10.34%
28.31%
29.30%
7.72%
28.28%

1924
37.94%
17.51%
12.73%
2.52%
20.88%
10.60%
19.32%
5.59%

1920
32.23%
33.41%
41.02%
59.60%
32.29%
31.26%
17.09%
5.50%

1916
5.86%
14.29%
3.90%
1.50%
12.77%
10.91%
20.96%
17.38%

1912
6.42%
14.56%
8.48%
4.42%
1.77%
1.05%
4.91%
11.18%

1908
9.58%
1.54%
23.76%
26.23%
15.76%
16.92%
16.97%
4.66%

1904
38.59%
37.94%
49.42%
54.73%
37.64%
40.37%
28.56%


1900
6.60%
3.24%
15.59%
15.60%
17.49%
3.83%
2.29%


1896
3.69%
5.35%
0.22%
11.92%
3.74%
56.79%
65.43%


1892
1.81%
2.04%
11.83%
0.50%
4.37%
9.90%



1888
24.21%
13.76%







1884
24.18%
16.78%







1880
30.68%
30.25%







1876
32.56%
29.40%







1872
33.66%
41.36%







1868
37.65%
27.81%







1864
61.41%
---







STATS
30 R/ 6 D / 1 Ind
29 R / 7 D
25 R / 4 D /
1 IND
24 R / 5 D /
1 IND
22 R / 8 D
19 R / 10 D / 1 IND
21 R / 8 D
16 R / 10 D
12 R / 1 D




Four of these GOP bastions have absolutely identical voting records from 1920 through 2008: KS, NE and both Dakotas. All four of these states have 20 R / 3 D voting records. WY, ID, UT and OK have more Democratic voting records in the 1940s. AK first participated in 1960, so no real comparison outside of the „11er“ category is possible.


Now, to Idaho alone: the state jumped into the fray with the 3rd election attempt by Democrat Grover Cleveland, who won the Presidency in 1884, lost to Harrison in 1888 and came back to unseat Harrison in 1892, making himself the only non-consecutive 2-term President in our history. But Idaho was not much interested in Cleveland. James Weaver of the Populist party won ID with 
+9.90% over incumbent Harrison. Cleveland was not even on the ballot in ID in 1892.


1896 was the first year in which a Democrat won Idaho: William Jennings Bryan (D), the „Silver Tongued Orator“ from nearby Colorado, took Idaho with a massive 
78.10% of the popular vote a +56.79% margin – which is still the state record today. Bryan went on to win ID again in 1900, but this time with a very lean +3.83% margin over incumbent William McKinley.


ID loved Teddy Roosevelt and gave him a 
+40.37% margin and 65.84% of the vote. It would take 76 years for a Republican to top his statistic (Reagan, 1980).


William Jennings Bryan (D), who won the Gem State twice, in 1896 and 1900, had no such luck by his third try in 1908: Republican William Howard Taft best him by 
+16.92% in margin.


In both 1912 and 1916, Woodrow Wilson (D) carried ID. His win from 1912 in a three man race was a minority win with 
32.08% of the PV and a +1.05% margin. In 1916, Wilson's margin went against the national grain and increased to a landslide +10.91%.


In the roaring 20s, ID went with the national GOP wave and rewarded Harding, Coolidge and Hoover with varying margins of 
+33.26% (1920), +10.60% (1924) and +29.30%.


Unlike VT and ME in the northeast, ID was not able to resist the FDR landslide in 1932: Roosevelt won with 
58.66% of the PV and a landslide +20.39% margin, slightly above his national +17.76% margin. In 1936, the margin swelled to +29.77%  for incumbent FDR.

However, in 1940,  ID gave FDR a far reduced margin of 
+9.05%, which was actually less than but much more in line with his national +9.95% margin over Wendell Wilkie (R) in that year. Likewise, in 1944, ID stayed with FDR a fourth time, but with a lean +3.83% margin over Thomas Dewey, also slightly under the national margin.


Whereas a slew of other western states fled the Democratic Party in 1948, ID remained faithful and gave incumbent Truman a 
+1.83% win, again over Thomas Dewey. Republicans were beginning to despair and thought that ID was destined to become a Democratic state in the middle of the Big Sky Country.


That sense changed in 1952. Though Eisenhower was a son of Texas, Idaho treated him as a favorite son and gave him a big 
+31.00% margin over Democrat Adlai E. Stevenson II, miles above his national margin. In 1956, ID went somewhat against the grain and gave incumbent Eisenhower a lesser margin, but still a blowout margin of +22.39%.


If Nixon had hoped to win ID with such margins in 1960, his hopes were dashed. The state showed great interest in John Kennedy, but at the end of the day, Nixon prevailed, but with a lean 
+7.57%, the smallest Republican presidential margin in this state ever.


In a show of how conservative the state was tilting, Johnson just barely flipped ID in 1964, with a razor-thin 
+1.83% margin. Idaho was Johnson's 45th and last state in the 1964 partisan rankings and this was the last time that a Democrat won the state.


In 1968, in spite of a three-man race, Nixon won ID hands down, with 
56.79% of the PV and a blowout +26.13% margin, which topped Eisenhower's 1956 showing in the state. ID was the 2nd most conservative state in the 1968 partisan rankings. In 1972, Nixon expanded his margin to +38.20%, coming close to but not overtaking Teddy Roosevelt from 1904.


Here once again the 9 cycle table from above:


Year
Rank
Winning %
% Margin
Part. Value
Swing“
National Swing
Trend
2008
48 / 04
61.21%
+25.30%
+32.56%
-12.82%
+9.72%
+3.10
2004
49 / 03
68.38%
+38.12%
+35.66%
-1.41%
+2.98%
+4.39
2000
49 / 03
67.17%
+39.53%
+40.05%
+20.99%
+8.00%
+12.99
1996
49 / 03
52.18%
+18.54%
+27.06%
+4.93%
+2.96%
+7.89
1992
49 / 03
42.03%
+13.61%
+19.17%
-12.46%
+13.29%
+0.83
1988
49 / 03
62.08%
+26.07%
+18.34%
-19.90%
-10.49%
+9.41
1984
50 / 02
72.37%
+45.97%
+27.75%
+4.70%
+8.48%
+3.78
1980
50 / 02
66.46%
+41.27%
+31.53%
+18.51%
+11.80%
+6.71
1976
50 / 02
59.88%
+22.76%
+24.82%
-15.44%
+25.21%
+9.77

The table makes it very clear that from at least 1976, the Democratic Party has had no real chance in ID.


Ronald Reagan broke Teddy Roosevelt's margin from 1904 in 1980 and then surpassed his own record again in 1984.


There have only been three minority wins in ID's electoral history: 1912, 1948 and 1992, and even in 1992, incumbent Bush, Sr. enjoyed an easy 
+13.61% victory over Bill Clinton.


George W. Bush, Jr.'s wins in 2000 and 2004 are worth note for the extreme margins and the stability in the state – very reminiscent of the Reagan elections of 1980 and 1984.


John McCain's win in ID was with a reduced but still massive landslide margin of 
+25.30% is the 14th largest or the 5th leanest of the 19 GOP wins in this state.


-is the fourth time in a row where the state suddenly went for the GOP with a lesser margin in what was or would have been a 3rd GOP term in office: 1960 (after 2 Term Eisenhower), 1976 (after 2 Term Nixon), 1988 (after 2 Term Reagan), 2008 (after 2 term Bush).


-is the fourth time in 9 cycles where the Partisan Value (difference between the statewide margin and the national margin) went above 
+30%.

-Obama's losing percentage in ID (
35.91%) sets no records, but comes statistically close to Dukakis' loss in this state in 1988.


- and interesting study in a 4 th party vote: 2008 showed a pretty even spread in the 4 th party „protest“ vote: Nader got 
1.09%, Baldwin (Reform Party – Perot) got 0.72%, Barr (Libertarian) got 0.56%. Had the Nader vote gone for Obama and the Barr and Baldwin vote gone for McCain, then the winning margin would have barely budged.



Idaho and Utah


Of all the states in the Union, no two states came as close to each other in winning margin as did Nebraska and Kansas. McCain won NE by 
+14.93% and he won KS by +14.92%. That is a difference of just 0.01% in margin. These two neighbor states have a common voting record that goes back father than any other of the „11ers“ mentioned above: from 1912 through 2008, both states have identical records for 26 cycles in a row. That is the longest consecutive voting record of any two states in the Union, ever. Not even North and South Dakota have such a long common voting record.


However, Idaho and Utah also share a very common voting record from 1952 onward and more importantly, the two have maintained the same distance between themselves in the partisan rankings for 10 cycles. It is so that in 2008, WY is the number 1 ranking in the conservative rankings, but for the 8 cycles before (1976, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000 and 2004), Utah was Rank 1 among the conservative states. For three of those cycles (1976, 1980, 1984) Idaho hugged right next to ID as the Rank 2 state. Then, the next five cycles (1988 through 2004), Idaho was Rank 3 against Utah – 2 rankings away, whereas in 2008, both states ended up next to each other again, with Utah in 3rd and Idaho in 4th. In other words, this is the first time in 32 years that Idaho was anything less than rank 3 among the conservative states and that Utah was anything less than Rank 1!


Here is a table comparing ID and UT over the last 9 cycles:


Year

Rank
Winning %
% Margin
Part. Value
Swing“
National Swing
Trend
2008
ID
48 / 04
61.21%
+25.30%
+32.56%
-12.82%
+9.72%
+3.10

UT
49 / 03
62.24%
+28.02%
+35.28%
-17.52%
+9.72%
+7.80
Diff:

1
UT +1.03%
UT +2.72%
UT +2.72%
ID +4.70%
---
ID +4.70









2004
ID
49 / 03
68.38%
+38.12%
+35.66%
-1.41%
+2.98%
+4.39

UT
51 / 01
71.54%
+45.54%
+43.08%
+5.05%
+2.98%
+2.07
Diff:

2
UT +3.16%
UT +7.42%
UT +7.42%
UT +6.46%
---
UT +6.46









2000
ID
49 / 03
67.17%
+39.53%
+40.05%
+20.99%
+8.00%
+12.99

UT
51 / 01
66.83%
+40.49%
+41.01%
+19.42%
+8.00%
+11.42
Diff:

2
ID +0.34%
UT +0.96%
UT +0.96%
ID +1.57%
---
ID +1.57









1996
ID
49 / 03
52.18%
+18.54%
+27.06%
+4.93%
+2.96%
+7.89

UT
51 / 01
54.37%
+21.07%
+29.59%
+5.04%
+2.96%
+8.00
Diff:

2
UT +2.19%
UT +2.53%
UT +2.53%
UT +0.09%
---
UT +0.09









1992
ID
49 / 03
42.03%
+13.61%
+19.17%
-12.46%
+13.29%
+0.83

UT
51 / 01
43.36%
+16.03%
+21.59%
-18.14%
+13.29%
+4.85
Diff:

2
UT +1.33%
UT +2.42%
UT +2.42%
ID +5.68%
---
ID +5.68









1988
ID
49 / 03
62.08%
+26.07%
+18.34%
-19.90%
-10.49%
+9.41

UT
51 / 01
66.22%
+34.17%
+26.44%
-15.66%
-10.49%
+5.17
Diff:

2
UT +4.14%
UT +8.10%
UT +8.10%
UT +4.24%
---
UT +4.24









1984
ID
50 / 02
72.37%
+45.97%
+27.75%
+4.70%
+8.48%
+3.78

UT
51 / 01
74.50%
+49.83%
+31.61%
-2.37%
+8.48%
+10.85
Diff:

1
UT +2.13%
UT +3.86%
UT +3.86%
ID +7.07%
---
ID +7.07









1980
ID
50 / 02
66.46%
+41.27%
+31.53%
+18.51%
+11.80%
+6.71

UT
51 / 01
72.77%
+52.20%
+42.46%
+23.41%
+11.80%
+11.61
Diff:

1
UT +6.31%
UT +10.93%
UT +10.93%
UT +4.90%
---
UT +4.90









1976
ID
50 / 02
59.88%
+22.76%
+24.82%
-15.44%
+25.21%
+9.77

UT
51 / 01
62.44%
+28.79%
+30.85%
-12.46%
+25.21%
+12.75
Diff:

1
UT +2.56%
UT +6.03%
UT +6.03%
UT +2.98%
---
ID +2.98


From the table and also from the partisan rankings chart in posting three, we can see that UT has the slightly more conservative voting record most of the time. The relationship between UT and ID on the conservative is similar but more consistent that the relationship DC and/or RI / MA on the liberal side of the spectrum.

Important details about ID:




Republicans:


-Since ID's entrance into the Electoral College in 1892, every Republican President except McKinley (1896, 1900) has won ID: T. Roosevelt, Taft (1908, not 1912) Harding, Coolidge, Hoover (1928, not 1932), Eisenhower, Nixon, Ford, Reagan, Bush 41 and Bush 43.


-two 1-Term Republicans lost ID as a pick-up to the Democratic Party in his failed re-election attempt: Taft (1912), Hoover (1932)


Democrats:


-Only four Democratic Presidents in history have won ID: Wilson (2 times), FDR (2 times), Truman and LBJ


-Only one Democratic challenger who lost the GE won ID, but he won it twice: Bryan (1896, 1900)


Independents:


Weaver (1892), Populist Party.




Based on its voting record, ID is not bellwether state, having missed the Electoral College winner in 5 of the last 27 cycles and having missed the PV winner in 6 of the last 27 cycles – all of these misses happened from 1960 onward.


Can ID become a battleground in 2012?


No. ID is in no way a battleground. Polling showing a Democratic within single digits of a Republican in ID indicate a certain Democratic landslide in the GE, plain and simple.


ID Superlatives
YEAR
Candidate
Winning %
Winning margin
GOP
1984
Reagan
72.36%
+45.97%
DEM
1896
Bryan
+78.10%
+56.79%
IND
1892
Weaver
54.10%
+9.90% 
---------------------




All-time "squeaker"
1912
Wilson
32.08%
+1.05% 


In Idaho, the Governor, Lt. Governor, both Senators and both US Representatives are all Republicans. In the 
Idaho Legislature, the Republicans have hypermajorities in both Houses..

Facit:
 in 2007, I wrote„Idaho is one of the safest Republican "firewall"-states. „


Facit 2011: Idaho is an absolutely safe Republican "firewall"-state.

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