27 December 2011

Rank 46 / 6: Alaska

Alaska:




Voter-Turnout ALERT: the number of votes cast in AK has increased almost 6-fold over 1960!



Results of all 13 presidential cycles:




Year
Rank
Winning %
% Margin
Part. Value
Swing“
National Swing
Trend
2008
46 / 06
59.42%
+21.54%
+28.80%
-4.01%
+9.72%
+5.71
2004
44 / 08
61.07%
+25.55%
+23.09%
-5.40%
+2.98%
+8.38
2000
48 / 04
58.62%
+30.95%
+31.47%
+13.42%
+8.00%
+5.42
1996
47 / 05
50.80%
+17.53%
+26.35%
+8.36%
+2.96%
+11.32
1992
47 / 05
39.46%
+9.17%
+14.73%
-14.15%
+13.29%
+0.86
1988
47 / 05
59.59%
+23.32%
+15.59%
-13.47%
-10.49%
+2.98
1984
45 / 07
66.65%
+36.79%
+18.57%
+8.85%
+8.48%
+0.37
1980
42 / 10
54.35%
+27.94%
+18.20%
+5.69%
+11.80%
+6.11
1976
49 / 03
57.90%
+22.25%
+24.31%
-1.26%
+25.21%
+23.95
1972
20 / 32
58.13%
+23.51%
+0.36%
+20.87%
+22.45%
+1.58
1968
22 / 30
45.28%
+2.64%
+1.94%
+34.46%
+23.28%
+11.18
1964
12 / 40
65.91%
+31.82%
+9.24%
+33.70%
+22.42%
+11.28
1960
27 / 24
50.94%
+1.88%
+2.04%
---
+15.56%
---

Blue shading = DEM pick-up over the cycle before.
Red shading = GOP pick-up over the cycle before.


Alaska Margin average, 1988-2008 (6 cycles): GOP 
+21.34 % 



Trend: 
STEADY TO REPUBLICAN

AK county-by-county EXCEL spreadsheet
(raw totals for 2008 ONLY, Margins, swings, % of state PV, county growth rate)


The partisan rankings for Ranking 46 (AK) from 2008 backwards in history to 1964 in Table-format (highlighted in yellow):
Rank2008Margin '082004Margin - 042000Margin '001996Margin '961992Margin '921988Margin '88Rank1984Margin '841980Margin '801976Margin '76
42 - 10TN15,06%TX22,86%TX21,32%SC6,04%IN6,11%NV20,94%42 - 10KS33,67%AK27,94%IN7,62%
43 - 9KY16,22%KS25,38%OK21,88%ND6,81%AL6,77%NE20,96%43 - 9NV33,88%SD28,83%VT11,20%
44 - 8LA18,63%AK25,55%SD22,73%AL6,97%SC8,15%AZ21,21%44 - 8AZ33,88%NH29,39%NH11,28%
45 - 7AR19,85%AL25,62%MT25,07%OK7,81%OK8,62%FL22,36%45 - 7AK36,79%AZ32,36%CO11,47%
46 - 6AK21,54%ND27,36%ND27,60%WY12,98%MS8,92%WY22,52%46 - 6NH37,71%WY34,67%AZ16,57%
47 - 5AL21,58%OK31,14%NE28,99%AK17,53%AK9,17%AK23,32%47 - 5OK37,94%NV35,64%WY19,49%
48 - 4ID25,30%NE33,22%AK30,95%KS18,21%ND12,03%SC23,92%48 - 4NE41,74%ND37,97%NE20,74%
49 - 3UT28,02%ID38,12%ID39,53%ID18,54%ID13,61%ID26,07%49 - 3WY42,27%NE39,49%AK22,25%

Rank1972Margin '721968Margin '681964Margin '64
10 – 42IA17,13%NY5,46%VT32,61%
11 – 41NY17,34%CT5,16%AK31,82%
12 – 40WA18,28%LA20.11%NJ31,75%
13 - 39CT18,44%AL47.13%MD30,94%
14 - 38IL18,52%PA3,57%PA30,22%
15 - 37PA19,98%WA2,11%KY28,36%
16 - 36MT20,08%MD1,64%MO28,10%
17 - 35DE20,41%TX1,27%MN27,76%
18 - 34OH21,56%AR7.64%OR27,75%
19 - 33ME22,98%MO1,13%NH27,28%
20 - 32AK23,51%NJ2,13%TX26,82%
21 - 31MD23,90%OH2,28%OH25,89%
22 -30NM24,49%AK2,64%WA24,59%



Links

Helpful Info Links
Helpful Election Links
AK population 2008: 686,293
AK Population Density: 0.5 persons per sq Km.
Electoral Vote Density: 228,764 persons per EV.


AK ELECTORAL DEVELOPMENT (electors through history) :  3 EV (1960 – present).
Summary




Alaska is the 6th most conservative state and the 46th most liberal state, with a Republican winning Margin of +21.54% and having voted 27.11% more Republican than the national Margin in 2008. 

Alaska was the 8th most conservative state and the 25th most liberal state in 2004, with a Republican winning Margin of +24.55% and having voted 23.09% more Republican than the national Margin in that Year.

Alaska was the 4th most conservative state and the 48th most liberal state in 2000, with a Republican winning Margin of +30.95% and having voted 31.47% more Republican than the national Margin in that Year.


Since 1960, which is the state's entire electoral history, Alaska went for the GOP 
12 times, for the DEMS 1 time.


Alaska officially became the 49th state of the Union on January 3, 1959, but it's actual statehood was approved by Congress and signed by then-President Dwight D. Eisenhower on July 7, 1958. The WIKI article on the 
Alaska Statehood Act is very, very well written and recommended reading. As was that case with Michigan and Arkansas 122 years earlier, the delay for for statehood for both Alaska and Hawaii had to do with partisan brinksmanship in the US congress over two major issues: revenues (Republicans feared that Alaska would not generate enough revenues and therefore become a welfare state) and Civil-Rights (Southern Democrats feared that AK would send a too „pro-Civil-Rights“ Delegation to the US congress. Similar issues affected Hawaii and both states had lots of internal opposition to statehood to overcome. Irony of history is that a great deal of Republicans feared that Alaska would become a Democratic state, many Democrats feared that Hawaii would become a Republican state – and so to balance the scales once again as Congress did in 1836-1837 with Michigan and Arkansas, both Alaska and Hawaii were admitted to the Union within about 6 months time.


The largest state in the Union by area , but the 3rd SMALLEST by population, Alaska is also the fourth wealthiest state in the Union, due to oil. The massive size of Alaska and the low population makes for an official population density of 0.5 persons per square Kilometer, but that statistic is somewhat deceptive: Around 98% of Alaska has never seen a human foot-or-handprint. Alaska is one of the few places in the world that is still mostly pristine and devoid of human influence and indeed, great swaths of Alaska are currently uninhabitable. So, the actual population density in Alaska is, in reality, far higher that it appears on paper.

Alaska is one of only two non-contiguous non-continental states and the only state in the Union where there is no road leading to the capitol - to Juneau, save one bridge that connects the eastern part of Juneau to Douglas Island, but not to mainland Alaska. Most people travel back and forth between Juneau and the rest of the state per ferry or airplane. The geography of Alaska is worth mentioning: in the middle of the state, where one would think it could be the coldest all year around, temperature can easily reach 95 degrees Fahrenheit in the summer, while Anchorange and Juneau stay relatively cold.


In terms of elections, Alaska is divided into districts, sometimes called „Regions“ and sometimes called „Districts“, ranging from 4 to as many as 24 districts up through 2004. In 2004, it was just four large Regions“. In 2008, the state was re-divided into 40 districts, which makes a direct district-to-district comparison from 2008 to 2004 impossible. Therefore, the link to the excel table above only has the data for 2008.


Since AK is such a young state, it's electoral history is also a short one. In a nutshell: in the 13 cycles in which AK has participated in the GE and in the Electoral College, it has gone Republican for 12 of 13. Only the Johnson (D) landslide of 1964 broke this Republican record, but since 1968, AK is one of the „11ers“,a longside KS, NE, SD, ND, WY, ID, UT, and OK - the core conservative states that have gone 11 cycles straight for the GOP since Nixon/Humprey/Wallace of 1968:
Year
Kansas
Nebraska
South Dakota
North Dakota
Wyoming
Idaho
Utah
Oklahoma
Alaska
2008
14.92%
14.93%
8.41%
8.65%
32.24%
25.30%
28.02%
31.29%
21.54%
2004
25.38%
33.22%
21.47%
27.36%
39.79%
38.12%
45.54%
31.14%
25.55%
2000
20.80%
28.99%
22.73%
27.60%
40.06%
39.53%
40.49%
21.88%
30.95%
1996
18.21%
18.70%
3.46%
6.81%
12.98%
18.54%
21.07%
7.81%
17.53%
1992
5.14%
17.18%
3.52%
12.03%
5.60%
13.61%
16.03%
8.62%
9.17%
1988
13.23%
20.96%
6.34%
13.06%
22.52%
26.07%
34.17%
16.65%
23.32%
1984
33.67%
41.74%
26.47%
31.04%
42.27%
45.97%
49.83%
37.94%
36.79%
1980
24.56%
39.49%
28.83%
37.97%
34.67%
41.27%
52.20%
25.53%
27.94%
1976
7.55%
20.74%
1.48%
5.85%
19.49%
22.76%
28.79%
1.21%
22.25%
1972
38.15%
41.00%
8.63%
26.28%
38.54%
38.20%
41.25%
49.70%
23.51%
1968
20.13%
28.01%
11.31%
17.71%
20.25%
26.13%
19.42%
15.70%
2.64%
1964
9.03%
5.21%
11.22%
16.09%
13.12%
1.83%
9.73%
11.49%
31.82%
1960
21.35%
24.14%
16.43%
10.90%
10.03%
7.57%
9.64%
18.04%
1.88%
1956
31.23%
31.03%
16.77%
23.63%
20.16%
22.39%
29.12%
10.26%
---
1952
38.27%
38.31%
38.54%
42.58%
25.62%
31.00%
17.85%
9.18%
---
1948
9.02%
8.31%
4.80%
8.76%
4.35%
2.73%
8.96%
25.49%
---
1944
21.07%
17.16%
16.66%
8.35%
2.47%
3.49%
21.02%
11.36%
---
1940
14.47%
14.37%
14.82%
10.88%
5.93%
9.05%
24.67%
15.18%
---
1936
7.72%
16.40%
11.52%
33.03%
23.10%
29.77%
39.55%
34.14%
---
1932
9.43%
27.70%
29.23%
41.58%
15.25%
20.39%
15.47%
46.59%
---
1928
44.96%
27.01%
20.98%
10.34%
28.31%
29.30%
7.72%
28.28%
---
1924
37.94%
17.51%
12.73%
2.52%
20.88%
10.60%
19.32%
5.59%
---
1920
32.23%
33.41%
41.02%
59.60%
32.29%
31.26%
17.09%
5.50%
---
1916
5.86%
14.29%
3.90%
1.50%
12.77%
10.91%
20.96%
17.38%
---
1912
6.42%
14.56%
8.48%
4.42%
1.77%
1.05%
4.91%
11.18%
---
1908
9.58%
1.54%
23.76%
26.23%
15.76%
16.92%
16.97%
4.66%
---
1904
38.59%
37.94%
49.42%
54.73%
37.64%
40.37%
28.56%
---
---
1900
6.60%
3.24%
15.59%
15.60%
17.49%
3.83%
2.29%
---
---
1896
3.69%
5.35%
0.22%
11.92%
3.74%
56.79%
65.43%
---
---
1892
1.81%
2.04%
11.83%
0.50%
4.37%
9.90%
---
---
---
1888
24.21%
13.76%
---
---
---
---
---
---
---
1884
24.18%
16.78%
---
---
---
---
---
---
---
1880
30.68%
30.25%
---
---
---
---
---
---
---
1876
32.56%
29.40%
---
---
---
---
---
---
---
1872
33.66%
41.36%
---
---
---
---
---
---
---
1868
37.65%
27.81%
---
---
---
---
---
---
---
1864
61.41%
---
---
---
---
---
---
---
---
STATS
30 R/ 6 D / 1 Ind
29 R / 7 D
25 R / 4 D /
1 IND
24 R / 5 D /
1 IND
22 R / 8 D
19 R / 10 D / 1 IND
21 R / 8 D
16 R / 10 D
12 R / 1 D


As as often been the case with a newly admitted state, the first cycle or so has produced lean results and that was the case in 1960: it was a real dogfight between Vice President Richard Nixon (R) and Senator John Kennedy (D). This is the ONLY two-man race in AK history with such a lean margin: Nixon +1.88%.


Barry Goldwater was just too extreme for Alaskans and out of protest they gave President Johnson (D) the only Democratic win in the state and the second largest landslide margin in the state's history to date: 
+31.82%.


But in 1968, Nixon flipped the „Last Frontier“ to the Republicans in a three-man race and minority win of 
45.28% and +2.64% margin. 1968 and 1992 are the only two minority wins in AK history. The other 11 cycles are solid majority wins. From 1972-1988 and again from 2000-2008, every Republican win in Alaska was +23% or more in margin. 1992 was a three-man race and minority win for President Bush, Sr. Of 39.46% and +9.17% and in 1996, again in a three-man race, Bob Dole won an outright majority win of 50.80% and +17.53%. Since 1972, the outcome in Alaska has never been in doubt. Indeed, in 6 of the last 9 cycles, Alaska has been between the 3rd and the 6th most conservative state in the partisan rankings and was the 5 th most conservative state for three cycles in a row: 1988, 1992 and 1996.


Of the Trend Values, 7 of 13 have actually been Democratic trend values, but the lansdslide win nature of the state precludes the idea that it will somewho suddenly become a blue state.


A couple of other interesting details: George W. Bush, Jr's first win in AK (2000) is the third largest landslide in AK history, but the highest Partisan Value (percentage over the national margin) and one of the stronger swings ever. It is also interesting to note that his swing from 2000 is an almost perfect mirror image of that from his father, George W. Bush, Sr., in 1988:


1988, Bush 41, Swing
 -13.47%
2008, Bush 43, Swing +13.42%


It is true that the percentage margins in AK have been steadily reduced since 2000: 
+30.95% in 2000, +25.55% in 2004 and +21.54% in 2008, but the Partisan Value from 2008 (+28.80%) is actually HIGHER than from 2004 and the second highest overall. Early polling showed a single digit race between then Senator Barack Obama (D) and Senator John McCain (R), but as soon as McCain selected then AK Governor Sarah Palin to be his running mate, the numbers sprung back to their usual pro-GOP landslide formation.


Can AK become a battleground in 2012?


No.


AK Superlatives
Year
Candidate
Winning %
Winning Margin
GOP
1984
Reagan
66.65%
+37.89%
DEM
1964
Johnson
65.91%
+31.82%
IND
1992
Perot
28.42%
Best IND showing in AK
---------------------




All-time "squearer"
1960
Nixon
50.80%
+1.88%

In Alaska, the Governor, Lt. Governor, 1 Senator and the 1 Representative-at-large are Republicans. 1 Senator is a Democrats. In the Alaska Legislature, it is a fascinating case of split government: the Democrats has a hypermajority (80%-20%) in the State Sentate, whereas the Republicans have a hypermajority (70%-30%) in the State House. The AK State Senate was completely unaffected by the GOP mid-term wave of 2010.

Facit:
 in 2007, I wrote: „Alaska is a safe Republican state, with shades of “green and yellow” – a Libertarian tinge that has fostered a number of secessionist groups. Alaska is a very independent thinking state. It is not likely to be attracted to liberal thought, but could in future go for an independent candidate. „


Facit 2011: Alaska is a core Republican
 „firewall“-state.

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