25 December 2011

Rank 45 / 7: Arkansas

Arkansas:


One of the „Clinton 6“




Results of the first 8 presidential cycles:






Year
Rank
Winning %
% Margin
Part. Value
Swing“
National Swing
Trend
2008
45 / 07
58.72%
+19.85%
+27.11%
+10.09%
+9.72%
+19.81
2004
29 / 23
54.31%
+9.76%
+7.30%
+4.32%
+2.98%
+1.34
2000
28 / 24
51.31%
+5.44%
+5.96%
+22.38%
+8.00%
+14.38
1996
11 / 41
53.74%
+16.94%
+8.42%
-0.78%
+2.96%
+3.74
1992
04 / 48
53.21%
+17.72%
+12.16%
+31.90%
+13.29%
+18.61
1988
33 / 19
56.37%
+14.18%
+6.45%
-8.00%
-10.49%
+2.49
1984
28 / 24
60.47%
+22.18%
+3.96%
+21.57%
+8.48%
+13.09
1980
10 / 42
48.13%
+0.61%
-9.13%
+30.62%
+11.80%
+18.82



Blue shading = DEM pick-up over the cycle before.
Red shading = GOP pick-up over the cycle before.


Arkansas margin average, 1988-2008 (8 cycles): 
GOP +2.43% 
Arkansas margin average, 1988-2008 (6 cycles): 
GOP +4.67%


Within the summary is an analysis of the swings and trend values in AR over the last eight cycles.


Trend: 
STRONG REPUBLICAN

AR county-by-county EXCEL spreadsheet
(raw totals for 2008 and 2004, margins, swings, % of state PV, county growth rate)


The partisan rankings for Ranking 44 (AR) and Ranking 45 (AR) from 2008 backwards in history to 1964 in Table-format (highlighted in yellow) are HERE.




Links



Helpful Info Links
Helpful Election Links
AR population 2008: 2,855,390
AR Population Density: 21.2 persons per sq Km.
Electoral Vote Density: 475,898 persons per EV.





AR ELECTORAL DEVELOPMENT (electors through history) :  3 (1836-1848), 4 (1852-1860), did not vote in 1864, 5 (1868), 6 (1872-1880), 7 (1884-1888), 8 (1892-1900), 9 (1904-1948), 8 (1952-1960), 6 EV (1964-present).

SUMMARY



Arkansas is the 7th most conservative state and the 45th most liberal state, with a Republican winning margin of +19.85% and having voted 27.11% more Republican than the national margin in 2008. Arkansas was one of only five states to „swing“ toward the Republican Party in 2008 (OK, WV, TN, AR, AR) and had the highest GOP„swing“ of 2008.

Arkansas was the 23rd most conservative state and the 29th most liberal state in 2004, with a Republican winning margin of +9.76% and having voted 7.30% more Republican than the national margin in that year.

Arkansas was the 24 th most conservative state and the 28th most liberal state in 2000, with a Republican winning margin of +5.44% and having voted 5.96% more Republican than the national margin in that year.




In its entire electoral history, from 1856-present, Arkansas went went for the GOP 
9 times, for the DEMS  27  times and 2 times for an Independent candidate.


From 1904 - 2008, Arkansas went for the GOP 
7 times, for the DEMS 19 times and 1 time for an Independent candidate.

Since 1948, Arkansas went for the GOP 
7 times, for the DEMS 8 times and 1 time for an Independent candidate.
Since 1960, Arkansas went for the GOP 7 times, for the DEMS 5 times and 1 time for an Independent candidate.



Arkansas officially became the 25th state of the Union on June 25, 1836. The 29th largest state in the Union by area , but the 32nd largest by population, Arkansas has shown parallel demographic and political growth in its history to the neighboring states of LA, MS and TN. Both Arkansas (which, with Missouri, was part of the Louisiana purchase of 1803, see 
MAP) and Michigan had long been settled and ready for statehood, but the „Missouri compromise“ of 1820, which prohibited slavery north of the 36th parallel, caused such entrenchment in the US Congress that no one was willing to admit any more new states until both sides were sure that each side would get a new state of equal electoral value: one slave state and one slave-free state. This is why Arkansas and Michigan (the 26 th state, admitted to the Union on January 26, 1837) were admitted to the Union is such close proximity to each other, Arkansas as a slave-state and Michigan as a slave-free state, and in their first election of 1840, both states had 3 EV apiece.


Kentucky, Tennessee, Missouri, Arkansas and Louisiana all have identical voting records since 1972. Add West Virginia – with a slightly more Democratic voting record in that time – to the bunch and here we have the „6 Clinton states“ from both 1992 and 1996 that went strongly against Democrat Obama in 2008. Interestingly enough, 4 of those states are directly on the Mason-Dixon line.


Now, to Arkansas: with it's entrance into the Electoral College in 1836, AR voted Democratic for every cycle up through 1856, and with sizeable margins: Van Buren (D) with 
64.08% and +28.16% margin in 1836, again Van Buren with 56.42% and +12.84% in 1840, James Polk (D) with 63.01% and +36.02% in 1844, Lewis Cass (D) with 55.07% and +10.14% in 1848, Franklin Pierce (D) with 62.18% and +24.36% in 1852 and James Buchanan (D) in 1856 with 67.12% and +34.25%. That made for 6 straight cycles where the Democrat never came under 55% of the vote. And the voter turnout skyrocketed almost 9-fold between 1836 (3,794 votes cast) and 1956 (32,642 votes cast)!


The issue of slavery was hot in AR and the state was very unified on the issue. AR was decidedly pro-slavery and as was the case in all of the South, the Democratic Party from the North did not win in AR in 1860; it only got 
9.89% of the vote. But the Southern Democrat, John Breckinridge, the Southern Democrat won the „Land of Opportunity“ with a landslide +16.01% margin over Bell (Constitution Party). The GOP was not on the ballot in AR in 1860.


Because of the Civil War, AR did not participate in the 1864 Elections.


In 1868, AR voted Republican for the first time in it's history, and two times back-to-back, for Ulysses S. Grant (R) – who won a 
+7.37% margin in his first election and a narrower +4.35% in 1872. It would be exactly 100 years before AR would vote for a Republican again.


From 1876 through 1964, 23 consecutive cycles, AR chose the Democratic candidate. 
This state has the second longest contiguous voting record in the USA, after GA and right before AL.  Though the margins were not as sky-high as in states like SC or MS, AR was an incredibly reliable Democratic state. Here a short table of all those wins:


Year
Democratic Candidate
Winning Percentage
Winning margin
1876
Tilden
59.92%
+20.05%
1880
Hancock
56.13%
+17.47%
1884
Cleveland
57.83%
+17.12%
1888
Cleveland
54.80%
+16.75%
1892
Cleveland
59.30%
+27.52%
1896
Bryan
73.72%
+48.61%
1900
Bryan
63.46%
+28.42%
1904
Parker
53.35%
+15.10%
1908
Bryan
57.31%
+20.02%
1912
Wilson
55.01%
+34.55%
1916
Wilson
65.97%
+37.23%
1920
Cox
58.49%
+19.76%
1924
Davis
61.21%
+31.93%
1928
Smith
60.29%
+20.96%
1932
FDR
85.96%
+73.06%
1936
FDR
81.80%
+63.94%
1940
FDR
79.02%
+58.03%
1944
FDR
69.95%
+40.11%
1948
Truman
61.72%
+40.71%
1952
Stevenson
55.90%
+12.14%
1956
Stevenson
52.46%
+6.64%
1960
Kennedy
50.19%
+7.13%
1964
Johnson
56.06%
+12.66%


From the table above and from the stats between 1836-1856, following observations: for 120 years where the Democratic Party won, it won in double digit margins (29 cycles). The first single-digit Democratic win in Arkansas' electoral history was first in 1956.


Also, in this time-period, third party activity was inconsequential: Teddy Roosevelt (Bull-Moose Party) only got 
17.30% of the Arkansas vote in 1912: AR was one of the few states where Taft (R) still took second place. In 1924, Robert LaFollette (Progressive Party) took 9.51% of the vote in AR, but Democrat Davis still came out with 61.21% of the PV. In 1948, Strom Thurmond (States Rights Party) took 16.52% of the vote, still behind John Dewey with 21.02% and Harry Truman, who still towered with 61.72%.

But the States-Rights movement in the USA gave Arkansans pause to think. And though Dwight D. Eisenhower did not win AR in 1952 or 1956, he did bring the astronomical margins of the FDR/Truman days down to „normal“ landslide levels. It is a real tribute to his qualities as an american hero and leader that Arkansans came with 6.65% of selecting him. Stevenson's margin from 1956 is the narrowest Democratic margin of all time in AR and the third narrowest overall, behind Reagan 1980 and Grant 1872.


1960 was the year where the Civil Rights opponents began to move in AR: Kennedy still won with a bare majority of 
50.19%, but the +7.13% margin is due to the 6.76% for Oral Fauvus and his „National States Rights“ party. Fauvus was a 6-term Governor from Arkansas who tried to block desegregation in Little Rock in 1957 and made himself into an iconic figure by doing so.


In 1964, unlike a swath of the South that deserted the Democratic Party and voted for extreme conservative Republican Barry Goldwater, AR remained true to the Democratic party and gave the President a 
+12.66% win, on par with Stevenson's 1952 race.


AR was one of the states that former Vice-President Richard Nixon had in his cross-hairs as part of his „Southern State Strategy“ in 1968. He had handily lost the state to John Kennedy and made a hard play for it in 1968, until George Wallace announced his candidacy as a third party candidate for the „American Independent“ Party, which was against de-segregation. Like Strom Thurmond 20 years before, George Wallace captured states in the South, 5 to be exact, here listed in order of margin: AL, MS, AR, GA and AR. Again, as in 1948, it was a minority win for the third party candidate Wallace, who garnered 
38.65% of the vote and had a margin of +7.64% over  Nixon, who placed second in the state. Nixon only got 31.01% in AR that year, Humphrey (D) took 30.66%. The Democratic Party won only three counties in AR in 1968, Nixon won 19 counties and Wallace (I) won the rest, which was the majority of the state.


In 1972, after 4 years of Nixon, Louisanans gave the incumbent a blowout 
+38.11% victory over hapless George McGovern. 1972 was the year that transformed lots of lots of lifelong Democrats into lifelong Republicans in Arkansas. And it was the first time in 100 years that a Republican won the state.


That did not stop Arkansas from swinging wildly back to the Democratic party and giving southern Democrat Jimmy Carter a +30.01% landslide win, which made for a MASSIVE
 68.12% partisan shift in the state, 1976 over 1972. AR was Carter's 3rd biggest win, putting AR at number 3 in the liberal rankings for that year, behind DC and Carter's home-state of GA.


The table at the top of the report has been increased to 8 cycles to include Ronald Reagan as well. Here it is again:


Year
Rank
Winning %
% Margin
Part. Value
Swing“
National Swing
Trend
2008
45 / 07
58.72%
+19.85%
+27.11%
+10.09%
+9.72%
+19.81
2004
29 / 23
54.31%
+9.76%
+7.30%
+4.32%
+2.98%
+1.34
2000
28 / 24
51.31%
+5.44%
+5.96%
+22.38%
+8.00%
+14.38
1996
11 / 41
53.74%
+16.94%
+8.42%
-0.78%
+2.96%
+3.74
1992
04 / 48
53.21%
+17.72%
+12.16%
+31.90%
+13.29%
+18.61
1988
33 / 19
56.37%
+14.18%
+6.45%
-8.00%
-10.49%
+2.49
1984
28 / 24
60.47%
+22.18%
+3.96%
+21.57%
+8.48%
+13.09
1980
10 / 42
48.13%
+0.61%
-9.13%
+30.62%
+11.80%
+18.82


Reagan flipped AR with a squeaker +0.61% in 1980, but jumped to a blowout +22.18% winning margin in the Natural State in 1984. Arkansans really liked Reagan and there is no doubt that the Reagan Revolution put down deep roots in this former Democratic state.


In 1988, AR gave Bush, Sr. a leaner but still landslide 
+14.18% margin over Democrat Michael Dukakis, but statistically, the state continued to trend Republican in 1988.


In 1992, in a three-man race, Southern Democrat Bill Clinton picked-up his home state of AR for the Democratic Party with a landslide 
+17.72% and a majority win with 53.21% of the PV. But in 1996, while Clinton's PV percentage was marginally better than 1992 (53.74%), his winning margin was slightly reduced to +16.94%. In 1996, AR was actually already trending toward the Republican party.


AR had 6 EV in 2000. Had Al Gore from Tennessee held this once bastion Democratic state, then he would have been President. But George W. Bush, Jr. ran an extremely good campaign, especially in the South and he swept the South. He won this state in 2000 and 2004 with 
+5.44% and +9.76%, respectively. Arkansas was maybe somewhat in play in 2000, but Gore ran out of money to compete there. In 2004, AR was not in play at all.


McCain's landslide 
+19.85% margin win in AR is:


-the 3rd largest of the 9 Republican wins in this state's history, after 1972 and 1984. (This statistic is identical to Louisiana)


-the highest GOP Trend Value of 2008: 
+19.81.


-has shown increasing strength for the Republican party since 2000.


-Is the second time in the history of Electoral Politics where the GOP won three times in a row in AR: 1980-1984-1988, 2000-2004-2008

-President Obama's 
38.86% is the third lowest Democratic percentage in the state's history, after Humprey 1968 and McGovern 1972. This is the only time in history that a Democrat has done so poorly in AR and yet, won the General Election.


There is speculation and punditry over why AR, which had gone for Jimmy Carter by 
+30.01% in 1976 and which gave favorite son Bill Clinton landslides in 1992 and 1996, should turn so far away from the Democratic candidate in 2008. In 1988, George W. Bush, Sr. repeatedly called Clinton "the failed Governor of a small state", which did not set well with Arkansans at the time, but in 2000, they were willing to go for a Republican Texas Governor over a Tennessean Vice President, meaning that in 2000, given the choice between two southerners, AR picked the Republican.

There is no empiric data to back this theory up, but the prevailing view is that since Hillary Clinton, who was in a tight race with Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination in 2008, was once the First Lady of Arkansas before she became the First Lady of the United States, had just oodles of Democratic supporters who were sour that she lost the nomination and voted for McCain in protest. That being said, Louisiana had a similar but smaller electoral development 2000-2004-2008 and Hillary Clinton was not the First Lady of Louisiana. The truth, as is often the case, is probably somewhere in the middle. But the fact remains that what was once a core Democratic state has gone from Democratic partisan ranking 3 in 1976 to Democratic partisan ranking 45 in 2008 – a 42 place drop!



Arkansas, Louisiana and the other 4 „Clinton 6“ states



Of all the states in the Union, no two states came as close to each other in winning margin as did Kansas and Nebraska, but Arkansas and neighbor state Louisiana (like Tennessee and Kentucky) also have a parallel history worth mentioning. John McCain won AR with 
58.72% and by a +19.85% margin; he won LA with 58.56% and by a +18.63% margin. That is a difference of just 0.16% in percentage and 1.22% in margin, unbelievably parallel to the similarities between Tennessee and Kentucky, which are also neighbor states to each other...


These two neighbor states have a common voting record that, though not as far reaching as that of Tennessee and Kentucky, is similar in margin intensity and intensity of wild swings.


And just as TN and KY are next to each other in the partisan rankings, so are LA and AR next to each other. And it is interesting that 4 of these six „Clinton States“, as a group of 4 a row (Conservative Rankings 10,09, 08 and 07), are higher in the rankings than a number of GOP states that were considered absolute core states, like both Dakotas, Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana.


Here is a table of the voting records of the „Clinton 6“ arranged in the order of the most Republican voting record from 1952 onward, descending. The shadings help to see this and the bolded margins are the highest margins of the 6 states, per cycle:


The Clinton 6“


Year
Tennessee
Kentucky
Missouri
Louisiana
Arkansas
West Virginia
2008
15.06%
16.22%
0.13%
18.63%
19.85%
13.09%
2004
14.27%
19.86%
7.20%
14.51%
9.76%
12.86%
2000
3.86%
15.13%
3.34%
7.68%
5.44%
6.32%
1996
2.41%
0.96%
6.30%
12.07%
16.94%
14.75%
1992
4.65%
3.21%
10.15%
4.61%
17.72%
13.02%
1988
16.34%
11.64%
3.98%
10.21%
14.18%
4.74%
1984
16.27%
20.66%
20.05%
22.60%
22.18%
10.51%
1980
0.29%
1.46%
6.81%
5.45%
0.61%
4.51%
1976
13.00%
7.19%
3.63%
5.78%
30.01%
16.14%
1972
37.95%
28.60%
24.59%
36.97%
38.11%
27.22%
1968
3.83%
6.14%
1.13%
20.11%
7.64%
8.82%
1964
11.01%
28.36%
28.10%
13.63%
12.66%
35.87%
1960
7.14%
7.18%
0.52%
21.83%
7.13%
5.47%
1956
0.62%
9.09%
0.22%
13.78%
6.64%
8.16%
1952
0.27%
0.07%
1.56%
5.84%
12.14%
3.85%
1948
12.26%
15.26%
16.61%
16.32%
40.71%
15.08%
1944
21.23%
9.23%
2.94%
61.20%
40.11%
9.78%
1940
34.90%
15.14%
4.77%
71.80%
58.03%
14.20%
1936
38.10%
18.60%
22.59%
77.66%
63.94%
21.35%
1932
34.01%
18.91%
28.62%
85.77%
73.06%
10.00%
1928
7.72%
18.82%
11.43%
52.58%
20.96%
17.39%
1924
9.21%
2.96%
5.79%
56.21%
31.93%
5.38%
1920
3.10%
0.44%
11.43%
38.75%
19.76%
12.00%
1916
13.61%
5.41%
3.65%
78.95%
37.23%
0.94%
1912
28.80%
22.97%
17.60%
65.10%
34.55%
12.68%
1908
6.86%
1.71%
0.09%
72.70%
20.02%
10.25%
1904
10.83%
2.69%
3.90%
78.84%
15.10%
13.24%
1900
8.08%
1.71%
5.53%
58.07%
28.42%
9.52%
1896
5.76%
0.06%
8.71%
54.57%
48.61%
5.40%
1892
13.52%
11.73%
7.52%
53.06%
27.52%
2.44%
1888
6.49%
8.32%
4.93%
46.92%
16.75%
0.32%
1884
3.72%
12.40%
7.47%
14.85%
17.12%
3.19%
1880
9.00%
15.87%
13.83%
24.96%
17.47%
9.90%
1876
19.58%
23.98%
16.27%
3.30%
20.05%
14.60%
1872
4.32%
5.87%
11.81%
11.37%
4.35%
4.46%
1868
36.85%
49.10%
13.92%
41.38%
7.37%
17.66%
1864
---
---
---
---
---
36.47%
1860
3.17%
39.65%
39.44%
4.90%
16.01%
---
1856
4.36%
8.83%
0.26%
3.39%
34.24%
---
TOTAL
D 23 / R 14 / I 1
D 24 / R 13 / I 1
D 23 / R 15
D 24 / R 11 / I 3
D 27 / R 9 / I 2
D 21 / R 16


And here the direct comparison between AR and AR:

Year

Rank
Winning %
% Margin
Part. Value
Swing“
National Swing
Trend
2008
LA
44 / 08
58.56%
+18.63%
+25.89%
+4.12%
+9.72%
+13.84

AR
45 / 07
58.72%
+19.85%
+27.11%
+10.09%
+9.72%
+19.81
Diff:

1
AR +0.16%
AR +1.22%
AR +1.22%
AR +5.97%
---
AR +5.97









2004
LA
34 / 18
56.72%
+14.51%
+12.05%
+6.83%
+2.98%
+3.85

AR
29 / 23
54.31%
+9.76%
+7.30%
+4.32%
+2.98%
+1.34
Diff:

5
LA +2.41%
LA +4.75%
LA +4.75%
LA +2.51%
---
LA +2.51









2000
LA
31 / 21
52.55%
+7.68%
+8.20%
+19.75%
+8.00%
+11.75

AR
28 / 24
51.31%
+5.44%
+5.96%
+22.38%
+8.00%
+14.38
Diff:

3
LA +1.24%
LA +2.44%
LA +2.44%
AR +2.63%
---
AR +2.63









1996
LA
19 / 33
52.01%
+12.07%
+3.55%
+7.46%
+2.96%
+4.50

AR
11 / 41
53.74%
+16.94%
+8.42%
-0.78%
+2.96%
+3.74
Diff:

8
AR +1.73
AR +4.87%
AR +4.87%
LA +8.24%
---
LA +8.24









1992
LA
24 / 28
45.58%
+4.61%
-0.95%
+14.82%
+13.29%
+1.53

AR
04 / 48
53.21%
+17.72%
+12.16%
+31.90%
+13.29%
+18.61
Diff:

20
AR +7.63%
AR +13.11%
AR +13.11%
AR +17.08%
---
AR +17.08









1988
LA
24 / 28
54.27%
+10.21%
+2.48%
-12.39%
-10.49%
+1.90

AR
33 / 19
56.37%
+14.18%
+6.45%
-8.00%
-10.49%
+2.49
Diff:

9
AR +2.10%
AR +3.97%
AR +3.97%
AR +4.39%
---
AR +4.39









1984
LA
31 / 21
60.77%
+22.60%
+4.38%
+17.15%
+8.48%
+8.67

AR
28 / 24
60.47%
+22.18%
+3.96%
+21.57%
+8.48%
+13.09
Diff:

3
LA +0.30%
LA +0.42%
LA +0.42%
AR +4.42%
---
AR +4.42









1980
LA
20 / 32
51.20%
+5.45%
-4.29%
+11.23%
+11.80%
+0.57

AR
10 / 42
48.13%
+0.61%
-9.13%
+30.62%
+11.80%
+18.82
Diff:

10
LA +3.07%
LA +4.84%
LA +4.84%
AR +19.39%
---
AR +19.39


We see that for 6 of 8 cycles, 1988 and 2008 being the exception, LA has the somewhat more Republican voting record. AR voted more Democratic in 1992 and 1996, which means that automatically, LA voted more Republican. However, AR has generally had more conservative trends than LA.


Important details about AR:




Republicans:


-Since AR's entrance into the Electoral College, no Republican until between Grant (1872) and Nixon (1972) won AR.


-Since 1980, two 2-term Republicans have won AR both times: Reagan and Bush Jr.


-One 2-term Republican picked up Arkansas in his second term: Nixon (1972).


Democrats:



-Every Democratic candidate between 1876-1964 won AR, regardless of the national margin: that makes for 23 straight cycles.


-Four Democratic Presidents have won AR 2 (or more times): Cleveland (1884, 1888, 1892), Wilson (both times), FDR (all four times), Clinton (both times).


-One Democratic challenger (an „also ran“) won AR three times: Bryan (1896, 1900, 1908)


-Only one Democratic incumbent in AR history has lost AR in his re-election bid: Carter (1980)


-Only one Democratic incumbent has lost AR in his first election: Obama (2008).

Regardless of what happens in 2012, Obama will create a new statistic for this state: if he wins AR (highly unlikely), then he will go down in history as the first Democratic incumbent to pick-up AR in his second term or in his re-election attempt.


If Obama loses AR, regardless whether he is re-elected or not, then he will go down in history as the only Democratic President (or Democratic 2-term President, depending on the outcome of the GE) to have lost AR twice.

Independents:


Two independent candidates have won AR: Breckinridge (1860), , Wallace (1968).
Ross Perot's showings as a third party candidate in 1992 and 1996 were unimpressive in AR.




Based on its voting record, AR is not bellwether state, having missed the Electoral College winner in 8 of the last 27 cycles and having missed the PV winner in 9 of the last 27 cycles, and more recently, it has missed the Electoral College winner 3 times since 1960 and the PV winner 4 times since 1960. This statistic is identical to that from Lousiana.





Can AR become a battleground in 2012?



Most likely not. The continuing conservative trends in this state make it very unlikely that it could become a battleground. Even in a possible three-man race it would be likely that the GOP would score a majority win in this Gulf state. AR is just not the state of the Democratic forefathers. The one possible game changer could be the addition of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to the Democratic ticket as the Vice-Presidential candidate, and though the blogosphere likes to buzz about this, it is public record that President Obama has already asked Vice-President Biden to be his running mate again in 2012.


AR Superlatives
YEAR
Candidate
Winning %
Winning margin
GOP
1972
Nixon
68.82%
+38.11%
DEM
1932
FDR
85.96%
+73.06%
IND
1968
Wallace
38.65%
+7.64%
---------------------




All-time "squeaker"
1980
Reagan
48.13%
+0.61%


In Arkansas, the Governor, 1 Senator and 1 of 4 US Representatives are Republicans. The Lt. Governor, 1 Senator and 3 of 4 US Representatives are Democrats. In the 
Arkansas General Assembly, the Democrats have a strong majority in both Houses. AR is one of the few states in the Union to have a split executive branch.

Facit: Arkansas is becoming a Republican „firewall“-state.

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