22 December 2011

Rank 43 / 9: Kentucky

Kentucky:
One of the „Clinton 6“




Results of the last 8 presidential cycles:


Year
Rank
Winning %
% Margin
Part. Value
Swing“
National Swing
Trend
2008
43 / 09
57.37%
+16.22%
+23.68%
-3.64%
+9.72%
+6.08
2004
38 / 14
59.55%
+19.86%
+17.40%
+4.73%
+2.98%
+1.75
2000
37 / 15
56.50%
+15.13%
+15.65%
+16.09%
+8.00%
+8.09
1996
32 / 20
45.84%
+0.96%
-7.56%
+2.25%
+2.96%
+1.71
1992
26 / 26
44.55%
+3.21%
-2.35%
+14.85%
+13.29%
+1.56
1988
26 / 26
55.52%
+11.64%
+3.91%
-9.02%
-10.49%
+1.47
1984
13 / 39
60.04%
+20.66%
+2.44%
+19.20%
+8.48%
+10.72
1980
12 / 40
49.07%
+1.46%
-8.28%
+8.65%
+11.80%
+3.15



Blue shading = DEM pick-up over the cycle before.
Red shading = GOP pick-up over the cycle before.


Kentucky margin average, 1988-2008 (8 cycles): GOP +10.30% 
Kentucky margin average, 1988-2008 (6 cycles): GOP +9.78%


Within the summary is an analysis of the swings and trend values in KY over the last six cycles.


Trend: STRONG REPUBLICAN


KY county-by-county EXCEL spreadsheet
(raw totals for 2008 and 2004, margins, swings, % of state PV, county growth rate)


The partisan rankings for Ranking 42 (TN) and Ranking 43 (KY) from 2008 backwards in history to 1964 in Table-format (highlighted in yellow) are HERE.



Links


Helpful Info Links
Helpful Election Links
KY population 2008: 4,269,245
KY Population Density: 41.5 persons per sq Km.
Electoral Vote Density: 533,656 persons per EV.



KY ELECTORAL DEVELOPMENT (electors through history) :  4 (1792-1800), 8 (1804-1808), 12 (1812-1820), 14 (1824-1828) 15 (1832-1840) 12 (1844-1860), 11 (1864-1868), 12 (1872-1880), 13 (1884-1928), 11 (1932-1948), 10 (1952-1960), 9 (1964-1968), 8 (1972-1976), 9 (1980-1988) 8 EV (1992-present)

SUMMARY




Kentucky is the 9th most conservative state and the 43 rd most liberal state, with a Republican winning margin of +15.06% and having voted 23.68% more Republican than the national margin in 2008. Although Kentucky was one of 6 southern „Clinton“ states to vote against Obama (D) in 2008, it, unlike WV and TN, both swung and trended toward the Democratic party in 2008.

Kentucky was the 14th most conservative state and the 38th most liberal state in 2004, with a Republican winning margin of +19.86% and having voted 17.40% more Republican than the national margin in that year.

Kentucky was the 25th most conservative state and the 27th most liberal state in 2000, with a Republican winning margin of +15.13% and having voted 15.65% more Republican than the national margin in that year.




In its entire electoral history, from 1856-present, Kentucky went went for the GOP 15 times, for the DEMS  22  times and 1 time for an Independent candidate.

From 1904 - 2008, Kentucky went for the GOP 13 times, for the DEMS 14 times.

Since 1948, Kentucky went for the GOP 10 times, for the DEMS 6 times.

Since 1960, Kentucky went for the GOP 9 timesfor the DEMS 3  times.


Here is how the USA looked in 1791:







Source.




Kentucky officially became the 15th state of the Union on June 1, 1792, after an agreement to split off from Virginia, and was the second state (after Vermont) to join the Union following the founding of the 13 colonies. It achieved statehood exactly 4 years to the day before neighboring state Tennessee and in the middle of election year for the second Presidential election in US history: George Washington's re-election. The 37th largest state in the Union by area (Tennessee is the 36th), but the 27th largest by population (Tennessee is the 17th - considerably larger in population), Kentucky has shown parallel demographic and political growth in its history to the neighboring states of TN, MO and AR.


Kentucky, Tennessee, Missouri, Louisiana and Arkansas all have identical voting records since 1972. Add West Virginia – with a slightly more Democratic voting record in that time – to the bunch and here we have the „6 Clinton states“ from both 1992 and 1996 that went strongly against Democrat Obama in 2008. Interestingly enough, 4 of those states are directly on the Mason-Dixon line.

Now, to Kentucky: with the addition of the popular vote as the means for most states to calculate their Electors in 1824, KY showed very quickly its ability to switch sides from cycle to cycle.


In 1824, in the famous four-way race between men all under the same party name („Democratic-Republican“), KY selected favorite son Henry Clay – who was a political giant of his time - and gave him its 14 EV. In 1792, KY had only 4 EV, so the population growth in the state at the time of westward expansion was massive. The election of 1824 was decided by the House of Representatives, in favor of John Quincy Adams.


In 1828, KY gave Andrew Jackson, the founder of the Democratic Party of today and favorite son from neighboring TN, a massive win, but just four years later, in 1832, it voted against Jackson and reverted back to Henry Clay, who was now the standard bearer for the „National Republican Party“, which would become the „Whig“ party and ultimately, the „Republican“ of today.


In 1836, another 4-way election that most have forgotten about, with one Democratic candidate (Martin Van Buren) and THREE „Whig“ candidates, KY (alongside OH and IN) voted for William Henry Harrison, who would come back four years later to capture the White House.


In 1840, Harrison (Whig) was back and this time, he unseated incumbent Van Buren and in doing so, captured Kentucky by a landslide. The Democratic Vice-Presidential candidate in 1840, Richard Johnson, hailed from KY, but was no favorite son there.


ELECTORAL TRIVIA: in 1840, William Henry Harrison („Tippecanoe and Tyler too!“) won the White House with exactly 52.87% of the PV. In 2008, Barack Obama won the White House with exactly 52.87% of the popular vote. But the national margins are different: Harrison won by +6.05%, Obama won by +7.26%. Harrison was also the first president to die while in office: he got a bad cold on Inauguration day and died from it one month later.


The next three cycles and the last three before the appearance of the GOP on the national state, KY voted all three times for its predecessor party, the Whigs: in 1844, for the third time, KY voted for Henry Clay, then for Zachary Taylor in the 3-way spoiler election of 1848 and then for Winfield Scott in the 1852 election.


The issue of slavery was hot in KY and the state was very divided on the issue. In 1856, as the debate raged and most knew that war was not far off, Kentucky decided to give James Buchanan (D) a try – in the absence of a GOP candidate on the ballot in KY – and gave him a lean +5.03% victory over former President Millard Fillmore.


As was the case in all of the South, the Democratic Party from the North did not win in KY in 1860; it only got 17.54% of the vote. But the Southern Democrat, John Breckinridge, did not win here either. Instead, 4th party candidate John Bell (Constitution Union Party) won the Bluegrass State with a solid +8.83% margin over Breckinridge. KY was one of three states that Bell won in 1860, alongside neighboring TN and VA. In 1860, the GOP was on the ballot in KY and Abraham Lincoln got all of 0.93% of the vote.


As the Civil War broke out, Kentucky was a neutral border state. Lincoln said of KY: „"I hope to have God on my side, but I must have Kentucky." (Source)


He also wrote: "I think to lose Kentucky is nearly the same as to lose the whole game. ... We would as well consent to separation at once, including the surrender of the capital." (Source)


The statewide elections of 1861 changed the tide of public opinion from the Confederacy toward the Union in KY. This did not please the Confederacy, which tried to take KY by force and at that point in time, KY, applied for assistance from the Union and then came under Union control.


You would think that with such a Republican leaning history pre-Civil War, KY would be inclined to vote for Republicans for President following the war. But Kentucky was truly one of those „brother against brother“ states and for every citizen who was pro-Union and anti-Slavery, there was one who was pro-Slavery and anti-Union. Lots of Kentuckians hated Ulysses S. Grant and had just as little love for Abraham Lincoln, in spite of the fact that Abraham Lincoln and Henry Clay were essentially cut from the same cloth.


In 1864, KY gave (northern) Democrat George McClellan a HUGE +38.65% margin win over Lincoln. McClellan only won 3 states for the Democrats in the middle of the Civil war: KY, MD and NJ. 1864 was the first of eight consecutive Democratic cycles in Kentucky, through 1892.


In 1868, KY was just as disinclined to select Ulysses Grant and chose Horatio Seymour (D) instead, with 74.55% of the PV by a thumpin'  +49.10% margin, which is still the state record. No Democrat or Republican has come close to this margin since then. In 1872, after four years of Grant, Kentuckians were much more willing to be willing to support the President, but still, Horace Greely (D) won by +5.78%.


In the contentious Hayes-Tilden electoral backfire of 1876, KY gave Tilden a blowout +23.98% margin.


Through the gilded age, KY voted for every Democratic candidate: Winfield Hancock (1880, +15.87% margin), Grover Cleveland (1884, 1888 and 1892, with +12.40%+6.49% and +13.52%).


1896 was the year that broke the Democratic winning streak in KY: with just +277 votes and a +0.06% margin, Republican William McKinley from neighboring Ohio captured KY and its 12 EV in that year. KY was 23rd of 45 states in the republican partisan rankings in that year and the 23rd of the 23 states that McKinley won and the leanest „squeaker“ race of the election. You think the elections of 2000 and 2004 were polarized, with massive margins on both sides of the spectrum? Take a look at 1896: McKinley won 23 states, 18 of them with more than +10% landslide margin. Bryan won 22 states, 14 of them with more than +10% landslide margin. So, 32 of 45 states in 1896 were landslides for their respective parties, and in spite of that, McKinley won a massive landslide in the EC: 271 to 176.


The GOP's victory was short lived, however: in 1900, Bryan came back and flipped KY back to the Democratic side, with a +1.71% margin.


That Democratic margin increased in 1904: Parker (D) +2.69%.


And in a statistical rarity, ala Missouri 1920 and 1928, KY went for William Jennings Bryan in 1908 with EXACTLY the same margin as in 1900: Bryan +1.71%!


It should be reminded that both 1904 and 1908 were Republican landslide years and in spite of that, KY resisted the tide both times.


In 1912 and 1916, KY went easily for President Wilson, with +22.97% and +5.41% margins, respectively. And it was the 20th (TN was the 21st) of 21 states where Taft actually got more of the vote than Roosevelt in 1912: Taft got 25.52%, Roosevelt got 22.48%.


In the roaring 20s, KY went with 2/3 of the national GOP wave and rewarded Republicans Coolidge and and Hoover with +2.96% (in TN it was +3.10%) in 1924 and +18.82% in 1928, but the state did not like Harding in 1920.

In spite of the largest national winning margin in the history of our Union (Harding +26.17%), Kentucky remained in Democratic hands and gave Cox a +0.44% margin victory. In 1920, KY and TN were mirror images of each other: Of the 37 states that Harding won, TN was state number 37 and his leanest win, while KY was number 38 and the leanest Democratic win of that cycle.


The five Democratic cycles from 1932-1948 were also Democratic cycles in KY's history: FDR +18.91% (1932), +18.60% (1936 – going against the national trend), +15.14% (1940, strongly above the national margin and the national trend), +9.23% (1944) and for Truman, +15.26% in 1948. Where Truman was stronger than FDR here, also because his running-mate, Alban Barkley, was a favorite son from Kentucky.


The years 1952-1956 look a lot like a mirror image of 1896-1900: in 1896, a Republican won in a national landslide and picked up KY by a hair's breath. In 1952, a Republican won in a national landslide, but lost KY by a hair's breadth: Stevenson +0.07% margin. In 1900, the Republican incumbent won again in a national landslide, but lost KY to the Democrats. In 1956, the Republican incumbent won again in a national landslide, but picked-up KY by +9.09%. In the partisan rankings for 1952, once again, KY and TN are next to each other: TN was 39 of 39 in the conservative rankings and the leanest GOP win. KY was 40 in the conservative rankings and the leanest Democratic win.

Kentucky voted for Nixon by +7.18% in 1960. It was one of those former core Democratic states with no interest in a liberal Democrat from the NE.


But 1964, KY returned comfortably to the Democratic fold and gave incumbent Lyndon Baines Johnson a massive +28.36% win (in TN it was „just“ +11.01%), above his national margin.


However, with Richard Nixon as the nominee again in 1968 , the state swung once again to the GOP and gave Nixon a margin similar to 1960: Nixon +6.14% over Hubert Humphrey. The state also did give George Wallace a large 18.29% of the vote but Wallace was really never poised to win the Bluegrass State.


In 1972, after 4 years of Nixon, Tennesseans gave the incumbent a blowout +28.60% victory over hapless George McGovern, an almost mirror image of Johnson's win just 8 years earlier.


That did not stop Kentucky from swinging wildly back to the Democratic party and giving southern Democrat Jimmy Carter a solid +7.19%  win, which made for a 35.79% partisan shift in the state, 1976 over 1972 (not nearly as extreme as TN, with 50.95% shift).


The table at the top of the report has been increased to 8 cycles to include Ronald Reagan as well:

Year
Rank
Winning %
% Margin
Part. Value
Swing“
National Swing
Trend
2008
43 / 09
57.37%
+16.22%
+23.68%
-3.64%
+9.72%
+6.08
2004
38 / 14
59.55%
+19.86%
+17.40%
+4.73%
+2.98%
+1.75
2000
37 / 15
56.50%
+15.13%
+15.65%
+16.09%
+8.00%
+8.09
1996
32 / 20
45.84%
+0.96%
-7.56%
+2.25%
+2.96%
+1.71
1992
26 / 26
44.55%
+3.21%
-2.35%
+14.85%
+13.29%
+1.56
1988
26 / 26
55.52%
+11.64%
+3.91%
-9.02%
-10.49%
+1.47
1984
13 / 39
60.04%
+20.66%
+2.44%
+19.20%
+8.48%
+10.72
1980
12 / 40
49.07%
+1.46%
-8.28%
+8.65%
+11.80%
+3.15


Reagan flipped KY with a lean +1.46% in 1980, but jumped to a blowout +20.66% winning margin in the Bluegrass State in 1984. Kentuckians really liked Reagan and there is no doubt that the Reagan Revolution put down deep roots in this former Democratic state.


In 1988, KY gave Bush, Sr. a leaner but still landslide +11.64% margin over Democrat Michael Dukakis. Interesting that in the same year, Dukakis won neighboring WV, which has the same geography and an even more white demographic than KY. But because Bush's negative margin swing in KY was less than his negative margin swing nationally, KY actually trended slightly more Republican in 1988.


In 1992, in a three-man race, Southern Democrat Bill Clinton from neighboring Arkansas, picked-up KY for the Democratic Party with a lean +3.21% and a minority win with +44.55% of the PV. But in 1996, 4 of the 6 so-called „Clinton States“ trended toward the Republican Party and gave Clinton a leaner margin than in 1992: KY, WV, MO, AR . KY was the closest election of 1996: Clinton held the state with just +0.96% margin.


George W. Bush, Jr. easily won this state in 2004 and 2008 with +15.13% and +19.86%, respectively. Kentucky was not even remotely in play since 2000.


McCain's landslide +16.22% margin win in KY is:


-the 5th largest of the 14 Republican wins in this state's history and the 5th Republican landslide win in a row where the GOP has won this state: 1984, 1988, 2000, 2004, 2008


-statistically very similar to George W. Bush's first win in 2000. The Democratic percentage in 2008 is almost identical to 2000.


Kentucky, Tennessee and the other 4 „Clinton 6“ states




Of all the states in the Union, no two states came as close to each other in winning margin as did Kansas and Nebraska, but Kentucky and Tennessee also have a parallel history worth mentioning. McCain won TN with 56.85% and by a +15.06% margin; he won KY with 57.37% and by a +16.22% margin. That is a difference of just 0.52% in percentage and 1.16% in margin. These two neighbor states have a common voting record that goes back father than any other of the „Clinton 6“: from 1956 through 2008, both states have identical records for 14 cycles in a row. And excluding TN's flip to Eisenhower by +0.08% in 1952, the two states have a near identical voting record from 1928 to 2008, or 20 cycles in a row. The state with the next closest voting record of the Clinton 6 is Missouri,which shares a common voting record with Kentucky and Tennessee from 1964 on (12 cycles). Add Louisiana and Arkansas and we now have 5 of the „Clinton 6“ with identical voting records since 1972, or 10 cycles in a row. Had those five states voted for Obama in 2008, then they would also have been in line with the national winner for 10 cycles in a row and would have been therefore budding „bellwether“ candidates for the future.


Here is a table of the voting records of the „Clinton 6“ arranged in the order of the most Republican voting record from 1952 onward, descending. The shadings help to see this and the bolded margins are the highest margins of the 6 states, per cycle:



The Clinton 6“


Year
Tennessee
Kentucky
Missouri
Louisiana
Arkansas
West Virginia
2008
15.06%
16.22%
0.13%
18.63%
19.85%
13.09%
2004
14.27%
19.86%
7.20%
14.51%
9.76%
12.86%
2000
3.86%
15.13%
3.34%
7.68%
5.44%
6.32%
1996
2.41%
0.96%
6.30%
12.07%
16.94%
14.75%
1992
4.65%
3.21%
10.15%
4.61%
17.72%
13.02%
1988
16.34%
11.64%
3.98%
10.21%
14.18%
4.74%
1984
16.27%
20.66%
20.05%
22.60%
22.18%
10.51%
1980
0.29%
1.46%
6.81%
5.45%
0.61%
4.51%
1976
13.00%
7.19%
3.63%
5.78%
30.01%
16.14%
1972
37.95%
28.60%
24.59%
36.97%
38.11%
27.22%
1968
3.83%
6.14%
1.13%
20.11%
7.64%
8.82%
1964
11.01%
28.36%
28.10%
13.63%
12.66%
35.87%
1960
7.14%
7.18%
0.52%
21.83%
7.13%
5.47%
1956
0.62%
9.09%
0.22%
13.78%
6.64%
8.16%
1952
0.27%
0.07%
1.56%
5.84%
12.14%
3.85%
1948
12.26%
15.26%
16.61%
16.32%
40.71%
15.08%
1944
21.23%
9.23%
2.94%
61.20%
40.11%
9.78%
1940
34.90%
15.14%
4.77%
71.80%
58.03%
14.20%
1936
38.10%
18.60%
22.59%
77.66%
63.94%
21.35%
1932
34.01%
18.91%
28.62%
85.77%
73.06%
10.00%
1928
7.72%
18.82%
11.43%
52.58%
20.96%
17.39%
1924
9.21%
2.96%
5.79%
56.21%
31.93%
5.38%
1920
3.10%
0.44%
11.43%
38.75%
19.76%
12.00%
1916
13.61%
5.41%
3.65%
78.95%
37.23%
0.94%
1912
28.80%
22.97%
17.60%
65.10%
34.55%
12.68%
1908
6.86%
1.71%
0.09%
72.70%
20.02%
10.25%
1904
10.83%
2.69%
3.90%
78.84%
15.10%
13.24%
1900
8.08%
1.71%
5.53%
58.07%
28.42%
9.52%
1896
5.76%
0.06%
8.71%
54.57%
48.61%
5.40%
1892
13.52%
11.73%
7.52%
53.06%
27.52%
2.44%
1888
6.49%
8.32%
4.93%
46.92%
16.75%
0.32%
1884
3.72%
12.40%
7.47%
14.85%
17.12%
3.19%
1880
9.00%
15.87%
13.83%
24.96%
17.47%
9.90%
1876
19.58%
23.98%
16.27%
3.30%
20.05%
14.60%
1872
4.32%
5.87%
11.81%
11.37%
4.35%
4.46%
1868
36.85%
49.10%
13.92%
41.38%
7.37%
17.66%
1864
---
---
---
---
---
36.47%
1860
3.17%
39.65%
39.44%
4.90%
16.01%
---
1856
4.36%
8.83%
0.26%
3.39%
34.24%
---
TOTAL
D 23 / R 14 / I 1
D 24 / R 13 / I 1
D 23 / R 15
D 24 / R 11 / I 3
D 27 / R 9 / I 2
D 21 / R 16


And here the direct comparison between KY and KY:


Year

Rank
Winning %
% Margin
Part. Value
Swing“
National Swing
Trend
2008
TN
42 / 10
56.85%
+15.06%
+22.32%
+0.79%
+9.72%
+10.51

KY
43 / 09
57.37%
+16.22%
+23.68%
-3.64%
+9.72%
+6.08
Diff:


KY +0.52%
KY +1.16%
KY +1.16%
TN +4.43%
---
TN +16.59









2004
TN
33 / 19
56.80%
+14.27%
+11.82%
+10.41%
+2.98%
+7.43

KY
38 / 14
59.55%
+19.86%
+17.40%
+4.73%
+2.98%
+1.75
Diff:


KY +2.75%
KY +5.59%
KY +5.59%
TN +5.68%
---
TN +5.68









2000
TN
27 / 25
51.15%
+3.86%
+4.38%
+6.27%
+8.00%
+1.73

KY
37 / 15
56.50%
+15.13%
+15.65%
+16.09%
+8.00%
+8.09
Diff:


KY +5.35%
KY +11.27%
KY +11.27%
KY +9.82%
---
KY +9.82









1996
TN
29 / 23
48.00%
+2.41%
-6.11%
-2.24%
+2.96%
+5.20

KY
32 / 20
45.84%
+0.96%
-7.56%
-2.25%
+2.96%
+5.21
Diff:


TN + 3.84%
TN +1.45%
TN +1.45%
TN +0.01%
---
KY +0.01









1992
TN
22 / 30
47.08%
+4.65%
-0.91%
+20.99%
+13.29%
+7.70

KY
26 / 26
44.55%
+3.21%
-2.35%
+14.85%
+13.29%
+1.56
Diff:

10
TN +2.53%
TN +1.44
TN +1.44
TN +6.14%
---
TN +6.14









1988
TN
35 / 17
57.89%
+16.34%
+8.61%
+0.07%
-10.49%
+10.56

KY
26 / 26
55.52%
+11.64%
+3.91%
-9.02%
-10.49%
+1.47
Diff:

12
TN +2.37%
TN +4.70
TN +4.70
TN +9.09%
---
TN +9.09









1984
TN
09 / 43
57.84%
+16.27%
-1.95%
+15.98%
+8.48%
+7.50

KY
13 / 39
60.04%
+20.66%
+2.44%
+19.20%
+8.48%
+10.72
Diff:


KY +2.20%
KY +4.39%
KY +4.39%
KY +3.22%
---
KY +3.22









1980
TN
08 / 44
48.70%
+0.29%
-9.45%
+13.29%
+11.80%
+1.49

KY
12 / 40
49.07%
+1.46%
-8.28%
+8.65%
+11.80%
+3.15
Diff:


KY +0.37%
KY +1.17%
KY +1.17%
TN +4.64%
---
TN +4.64


We see that for 7 of 8 cycles, 1988 being the exception, the KY has the somewhat more Republican voting record. TN voted more Democratic in 1992 and 1996, which means that automatically, KY voted more Republican. There is an interesting fact buried in this:


The Dakotas: North Dakota is the more Republican state of the two by margins and percentages.
Kansas and Nebraska: Nebraska is the more Republican of the two by margins and percentages.
Tennessee and Kentucky: Kentucky is the more Republican of the two by margins and percentages.


In all three cases of neighboring states with identical or very similar voting records, the somewhat smaller state in population is the more conservative by percentages and margins. This pattern is not detectable for the so-called „Democratic“ or „blue“ states.

Important details about KY:


Republicans:


-Since KY's entrance into the Electoral College, no Republican until McKinley (1896) won KY.


-Since 1952, three 2-term Republicans have won KY both times: Nixon, Reagan and Bush Jr.


-Three Republicans who won KY in their first term lost KY in their re-election campaign: McKinley, Hoover and Bush, Sr.


-One 2-term Republican picked up Kentucky in his second term: Eisenhower.

Democrats:

-Every Democratic candidate between 1864-1920, exception 1896 won KY, regardless of the national margin, or 14 of 15 cycles


-Four Democratic Presidents have won KY 2 (or more times): Cleveland (1884, 1888, 1892), Wilson (both times), FDR (all four times), Clinton (both times).


-One Democratic challenger (an „also ran“) won KY two times: Bryan (1900, 1908)


-Only one Democratic incumbent in KY history has lost KY in his re-election bid: Carter (1980


Independents:


Only one independent candidate has ever won KY: Bell, in 1860.




Based on its voting record, KY is not bellwether state, having missed the Electoral College winner in 4 of the last 27 cycles and having missed the PV winner in 5 of the last 27 cycles, and more recently, it has missed the Electoral College winner 2 times since 1960 and the PV winner 3 times since 1960. This statistic is identical to TN.





Can KY become a battleground in 2012?

Most likely not. The continuing conservative trends in this state make it very unlikely that it could become a battleground. Even in a possible three-man race it would be likely that the GOP would score a majority win in this Mason-Dixon state. KY is just not the state of the Democratic forefathers.

KY Superlatives
YEAR
Candidate
Winning %
Winning margin
GOP
1972
Nixon
63.37%
+28.60%
DEM
1868
Seymour
74.55%
+49.10%
IND
1860
Bell
45.18%
+8.83%
---------------------




All-time "squeaker"
1952
---
1896
Stevenson
---
McKinley
49.91%
---
48.93%
+0.07%
---
+0.06%



In Kentucky, the Governor, Lt. Governor,and 2 of 6 US Representatives are Democrats. Both Senators and 4 of 6 US Representatives are Republicans. In the Kentucky General Assembly, the Republicans have a hypermajority in the state Senate, whereas the Democrats have a strong majority on the edge to a hypermajority in the state House.

Facit: Kentucky is becoming a Republican „firewall“-state.

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