21 December 2011

Rank 42 / 10: Tennessee

Tennessee:
One of the „Clinton 6“




Results of the last 8 presidential cycles:



Year
Rank
Winning %
% Margin
Part. Value
Swing“
National Swing
Trend
2008
42 / 10
56.85%
+15.06%
+22.32%
+0.79%
+9.72%
+10.51
2004
33 / 19
56.80%
+14.27%
+11.82%
+10.41%
+2.98%
+7.43
2000
27 / 25
51.15%
+3.86%
+4.38%
+6.27%
+8.00%
+1.73
1996
29 / 23
48.00%
+2.41%
-6.11%
+2.24%
+2.96%
+0.72
1992
22 / 30
47.08%
+4.65%
-0.91%
+20.99%
+13.29%
+7.70
1988
35 / 17
57.89%
+16.34%
+8.61%
+0.07%
-10.49%
+10.56
1984
09 / 43
57.84%
+16.27%
-1.95%
+15.98%
+8.48%
+7.50
1980
08 / 44
48.70%
+0.29%
-9.45%
+13.29%
+11.80%
+1.49


Blue shading = DEM pick-up over the cycle before.
Red shading = GOP pick-up over the cycle before.



Tennessee margin average, 1988-2008 (8 cycles): GOP +7.38% 

Tennessee margin average, 1988-2008 (6 cycles): GOP +7.08%


Within the summary is an analysis of the swings and trend values in TN over the last six cycles.


Trend: STRONG REPUBLICAN


(raw totals for 2008 and 2004, margins, swings, % of state PV, county growth rate)


The partisan rankings for Ranking 42 (TN) and Ranking 43 (KY) from 2008 backwards in history to 1964 in Table-format (highlighted in yellow) can be found HERE.



Links





Helpful Info Links
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TN population 2008: 6,214,888
TN Population Density: 58.2 persons per sq. Km.
Electoral Vote Density: 564,990 persons per EV.



TN ELECTORAL DEVELOPMENT (electors through history) : 3 (1796-1800), 5 (1804-1808), 8 (1812-1820), 11 (1824-1828), 15 (1832-1840), 13 (1844-1848), 12 (1852,1860), did not vote in 1864, 10 (1868),  12 (1872-1928), 11 (1932-1940) 12 (1944-1948), 11 (1952-1968), 10 (1972-1980) 11 EV (1984-present). 



SUMMARY





Tennessee is the 10th most conservative state and the 42nd most liberal state, with a Republican winning margin of +15.06% and having voted 22.32% more Republican than the national margin in 2008. Tennessee was one of only five states to „swing“ toward the Republican Party in 2008 (OK, WV, TN, LA, AR).



Tennessee was the 19th most conservative state and the 33rd most liberal state in 2004, with a Republican winning margin of +14.27% and having voted 11.82% more Republican than the national margin in that year.


Tennessee was the 27th most conservative state and the 25th most liberal state in 2000, with a Republican winning margin of +3.86% and having voted 4.38% more Republican than the national margin in that year.


In its entire electoral history, from 1856-present, Tennessee went went for the GOP 14 times, for the DEMS  23  times and 1 time for an Independent candidate.





From 1904 - 2008, Tennessee went for the GOP 13 times, for the DEMS 14 times.



Since 1948, Tennessee went for the GOP 11 times, for the DEMS 5 times.



Since 1960, Tennessee went for the GOP 10 times, for the DEMS 3 times.





Tennesse officially became the 16th state of the Union on June 1, 1896 and was the third newest state following the foundation of  the 13 colonies, after Vermont and Kentucky. The 36th largest state in the Union by area, but the 17th largest by population, Tennessee has shown parallel demographic and political growth in its history to the neighboring states of KY, MO and AR.



Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri, Louisiana and Arkansas all have identical voting records since 1972. Add West Virginia – with a slightly more Democratic voting record in that time – to the bunch and here we have the „6 Clinton states“ from both 1992 and 1996 that went strongly against Democrat Obama in 2008. Interestingly enough, 4 of those states are directly on the Mason-Dixon line.


Now, to Tennessee: with the addition of the popular vote as the means for most states to calculate their Electors in 1924, TN showed very quickly its ability to switch sides. From 1824-1832, TN was a staunch „Democratic“ state in the sense of Andrew Jackson. TN was Jackson's home state and it rewarded him with 95% and 97% of the popular vote in 1828 and 1832, respectively.


But as soon as Jackson was no longer on the scene, TN switched to the „Whigs“ (the predecessors of the Republican Party) from 1836-1852, or 5 cycles.


As the Civil War was nearing, TN sided with Democrat James Buchanan and gave him a narrow +4.36% margin over former President Millard Fillmore. The GOP was not on the ballot in TN in 1856.





As with all of the South, the Democratic Party from the North did not win in TX in 1860, it only got 7.72% of the vote. But the Southern Democrat, John Breckinridge, did not win here either. Instead, 4th party candidate John Bell (Constitution Union Party) won the Volunteer State with an equally lean +3.17% margin over Breckinridge. TN was one of three states that Bell won in 1860, alongside neighboring KY and VA.




Because of secession and the Civil War, TN did not participate in the election of 1864.



1868 was the first year with only the GOP and the Democratic Party on the ballot in TN, and Ulysses Grant (R) cleaned house in TN with a massive +36.85% margin over Horatio Seymour, a record that would first be broken by FDR in 1936 and again by Richard Nixon in 1972.





TN did not stay with the GOP, however. Already in 1872, it switched back to the Democratic Party and gave Horace Greeley (D) a lean +4.32% margin over the incumbent President. So, in the first 4 cycles since the GOP entered the Electoral College in 1856 – cycles in which TN voted, 3 of them were lean single digit wins. In fact, 8 of the first 11 cycles in TN's 1856-onward history are single-digit wins.





But not so in the contentious Hayes-Tilden electoral backfire of 1876, where TN gave Tilden a +19.58% margin, a Democratic record that would be broken 40 years later by Woodrow Wilson in 1912. This win in 1876 was the second in what would become 12 consecutive Democratic wins, through 1916. 





Through the gilded age, TN voted for every Democratic candidate: Winfield Hancock (1880, +9.00% margin), Grover Cleveland (1884, 1888 and 1892, with +3.72%+6.49% and a landslide +13.52%), William Jennings Bryan (1896, 1900 and 1908, with +5.76%+8.08% and +6.86%, respectively). So, within the 7 cycles from 1884-1908, TN voted for two Democratic candidates 3 times a piece, with hapless Alton Parker squeezed in in 1904 (Parker +10.83% - TN gave Parker a landslide in a massive Teddy Roosevelt landslide year).





In 1912 and 1916, TN went easily for President Wilson, with +28.80% and +13.61% margins, respectively. Also, TN was one of the states where Wilson had a majority win in the state (52.80%, the 11th of 11 majority wins for Wilson in 1912) in spite of the three-man nature of the race nationally. And it was the 21st of 21 states where Taft actually got more of the vote than Roosevelt: Taft got 24.00%, Roosevelt got 21.45%.





In the roaring 20s, TN went with 2/3 of the national GOP wave and rewarded Republicans Harding and and Hoover with +3.10% (1920) and +7.72% (1928), both single digit wins. Of the 37 states that Harding won, TN was state number 37 and his leanest win. Of the 40 states that Hoover won, TN was again state number 37 and had a perfect tie in margin with UTAH (Hoover +7.72%).


However, in spite of a massive national +25.22% margin for Coolidge, TN did not vote for him: it gave the Democratic ticket a +9.21% margin over Coolidge. How did this happen? The Democratic Vice-Presidential candidate was Charles Bryan, the younger brother of William Jennings Bryan, who ran and won TN three times: TN had a sort of love affair with the Bryan dynasty. But here is where the statistic for TN gets even more interesting: in 1920, it was state 37 in the GOP partisan rankings. In 1928 it was again state 37 in the GOP partisan rankings. In 1924, TN was 11 in the DEM partisan rankings, but 38 in the GOP partisan rankings. And the state gave Davis/Bryan exactly 52.80% of the PV. Look familiar? That is exactly the same percentage that Woodrow Wilson garnered 12 years earlier. TN is the only state I have researched to have a perfect winning percentage match within just 3 cycles. Missouri had such a percentage margin match between 1920 and 1928 (+11.28% each time). And if you take a look at the partisan rankings from 2000 and 2004, you will see that the rankings have reversed themselves: now TN is the 37th or 38th most Democratic state instead of the 37th or 38th most Republican state.


The five Democratic cycles from 1932-1948 were also Democratic cycles in TN's history and two of them are record setters: FDR +34.01% (1932), +38.10% (1936 – the all time record for both parties), +34.90% (1940, strongly against the decreasing national trend), +21.23% (1944) and for Truman, +12.26% in 1948. Where Truman was often stronger than FDR in the West, here he was demonstrably weaker. However, in 1948, Strom Thurmond (States Rights Party) took 13.41% of the vote in TN.


Eisenhower was able to flip the Volunteer State in 1952, but barely: he won TN with +0.27% margin and 49.99% of the popular vote. In the GOP partisan rankings for 1952, TN was the last state on the GOP list, just as in 1920 and 1928, the last time a Republican won this state. In 1956, Eisenhower won again, this time with +0.62% margin and again a minority win, with 49.21% of the popular vote. A number of electoral buffs speculate whether Obama's results in NC in 2012 could look very much like Eisenhower's end results in TN in 1956. There are similarities: both won their respective state (TN, NC) around one-third of a percent in the first election, for both, the state was the last state in their party's partisan rankings. If Obama wins NC in 2012, and maybe by about +0.60% margin, then historians will be drawing parallels to the two Eisenhower vs. Stevenson contests here in 1952 and 1956.


1960 was the year where TN strongly bucked the trend and bucked the party with which it had associated the most since 1856, namely, the Democratic Party. TN gave Vice-President Richard Nixon a +7.14% margin (in neighboring Kentucky, it was +7.18%: I will come back to these parallels later) in a year where John Kennedy won with a squeaker +0.16% margin nationally. Compared to 1956, TN moved up 12 places in the conservative partisan rankings, to place 27. By the way, in 1960, the „National States Rights“ Party, a would-be re-awakening of Strom Thurmond's „States Rights“ Party, was on the ballot in TN and got 1.03% of the vote. I believe this says alot about the character of Tennesseans that they did not give any real credence to such a racist party, whose nominee was Orval Faubus, the 6-term Governor from Arkansas who tried to block desegregation in Little Rock in 1957 and made himself into an iconic figure by doing so. But neighboring Tenneseans wanted nothing to do with him.


In 1964, TN returned comfortably to the Democratic fold and gave incumbent Lyndon Baines Johnson a +11.01% margin.


However, with Richard Nixon as the nominee again in 1968 (TN gave him +7.14% in 1960), the state swung once again to the GOP and gave Nixon a much leaner win of +3.83% over Hubert Humphrey. The state also did give George Wallace a large 34.02% of the vote and was Wallace's 6th best state (the first five were Wallace wins), so actually, Wallace came dangerously close to also winning in TN in 1968.


In 1972, after 4 years of Nixon, Tennesseans gave the incumbent a massive +37.95% victory over hapless George McGovern. It was the first Republican double-digit win since 1868, 104 years earlier, and the second largest margin in the state's history, after 1936

That did not stop Tennessee from swinging wildly back to the Democratic party and giving southern Democrat Jimmy Carter a +13.00% landslide win in 1976, which made for a +50.95% partisan shift in the state, 1976 over 1972. TN Republicans loved Ronald Reagan in 1976 (Ford won the state 49.7 to 49.2 in the primaries) and they had a chance to show it in 1980.


The table at the top of the report has been increased to 8 cycles to include Ronald Reagan as well, for these statitistics are important in order to see a pattern. Here is the table again:




Year
Rank
Winning %
% Margin
Part. Value
Swing“
National Swing
Trend
2008
42 / 10
56.85%
+15.06%
+22.32%
+0.79%
+9.72%
+10.51
2004
33 / 19
56.80%
+14.27%
+11.82%
+10.41%
+2.98%
+7.43
2000
27 / 25
51.15%
+3.86%
+4.38%
+6.27%
+8.00%
+1.73
1996
29 / 23
48.00%
+2.41%
-6.11%
+2.24%
+2.96%
+0.72
1992
22 / 30
47.08%
+4.65%
-0.91%
+20.99%
+13.29%
+7.70
1988
35 / 17
57.89%
+16.34%
+8.61%
+0.07%
-10.49%
+10.56
1984
09 / 43
57.84%
+16.27%
-1.95%
+15.98%
+8.48%
+7.50
1980
08 / 44
48.70%
+0.29%
-9.45%
+13.29%
+11.80%
+1.49

In an almost verbatim repeat of 1952 over 1948 (Truman won with +12.26% in 1948, Ike flipped the state with +0.27% in 1952), Reagan flipped TN with +0.29% over Carter's +13.00% from 1976. In this case, however, TN was not the last state in the GOP partisan rankings, but rather the 2nd to last, before Massachusetts. Had the pattern of Eisenhower held, then Reagan would have just barely won TN again in 1984, but instead, the state gave him a handsome +16.27% win in 1980, which is also a margin-shift well over the national shift.




In 1988, TN actually gave Bush, Sr. a slightly higher margin that it gave Reagan in his second term: +16.34%. But essentially, the statistics from 1984 to 1988 in TN are pretty much identical to each other. What is not identical is the massive trend shift in TN toward the Democratic party in spite of a an identical win, because of the large national shift against the GOP in 1988. This is critical as we will see this very same pattern for a 3rd Republican (or potential 3 rd Republican) term in 2008 over 2004. The numbers are nothing less than amazing. Take a look at the trend numbers:





1980 (Reagan, GOP term I): DEM +1.49

2000 (Bush 43, GOP term I): DEM +1.73

Trend difference: 0.24




1984 (Reagan, GOP term I): GOP +7.50

2004 (Bush 43, GOP term II) GOP +7.43

Trend difference: 0.07




1988: (Bush 41, GOP term III): GOP +10.56

2008: (Obama, would have been GOP term III had McCain won): GOP +10.51

Trend difference: 0.05




The closeseness of these trend values in each of these three corresponding elections is nothing less than astounding. In other words, both times, although the GOP picked-up the White House (1980, 2000), TN actually trended slightly Democratic. In the corresponding second terms (1984, 2004), TN trended about 7.5 points toward the GOP, despite the fact that 1984 was a large landslide for Ronald Reagan and 2004 was a hotly contested and narrowly won election. But the corresponding „third“ term is the most fascinating: in both cases, regardless whether the GOP won in 1988 or lost in 2008, the trend was again about 10.5 points for the GOP. This is exactly why measuring the statewide swing against the national swing is so important. Both of Bill Clintons elections in TN in 1992 and 1996 were high minority wins, but with underwhelming margins and the trend was a mixed bag: DEM +7.70 in 1992 (part of the Clinton motor that got him elected, therefore) but GOP +0.72 in 1996.





Were the pattern to hold, then TN should see around a DEM +7.70 in the election of 2012, but current polling in TN shows this to be unlikely. Not impossible, but unlikely. Were Obama to increase his national margin by 4 points to about +11.3 and the GOP win in TN were to be reduced about 3.4 points to GOP +11.5, then it would be so that the Democratic party would see a 7.7 point TREND in TN in 2012.




Tennessee, Kentucky and the other 4 „Clinton 6“ states






Of all the states in the Union, no two states came as close to each other in winning margin as did Kansas and Nebraskas, but Tennessee and Kentucky also have a parallel history worth mentioning. McCain won TN with 56.85% and by a +15.06% margin; he won KY with 57.37% and by a +16.22% margin. That is a difference of just 0.52% in percentage and 1.16% in margin. These two neighbor states have a common voting record that goes back father than any other of the „Clinton 6“: from 1956 through 2008, both states have identical records for 14 cycles in a row. And excluding KY's flip to Eisenhower by +0.08% in 1952, the two states have a near identical voting record from 1928 to 2008, or 20 cycles in a row. The state with the next closest voting record of the Clinton 6 is Missouri,which shares a common voting record with Tennessee and Kentucky from 1964 on (12 cycles). Add Louisiana and Arkansas and we now have 5 of the „Clinton 6“ with identical voting records since 1972, or 10 cycles in a row. Had those five states voted for Obama in 2008, then they would also have been in line with the national winner for 10 cycles in a row and would have been therefore budding „bellwether“ candidates for the future.





Here is a table of the voting records of the „Clinton 6“ arranged in the order of the most Republican voting record from 1952 onward, descending. The shadings help to see this and the bolded margins are the highest margins of the 6 states, per cycle:





 „The Clinton 6“

Year
Tennessee
Kentucky
Missouri
Louisiana
Arkansas
West Virginia
2008
15.06%
16.22%
0.13%
18.63%
19.85%
13.09%
2004
14.27%
19.86%
7.20%
14.51%
9.76%
12.86%
2000
3.86%
15.13%
3.34%
7.68%
5.44%
6.32%
1996
2.41%
0.96%
6.30%
12.07%
16.94%
14.75%
1992
4.65%
3.21%
10.15%
4.61%
17.72%
13.02%
1988
16.34%
11.64%
3.98%
10.21%
14.18%
4.74%
1984
16.27%
20.66%
20.05%
22.60%
22.18%
10.51%
1980
0.29%
1.46%
6.81%
5.45%
0.61%
4.51%
1976
13.00%
7.19%
3.63%
5.78%
30.01%
16.14%
1972
37.95%
28.60%
24.59%
36.97%
38.11%
27.22%
1968
3.83%
6.14%
1.13%
20.11%
7.64%
8.82%
1964
11.01%
28.36%
28.10%
13.63%
12.66%
35.87%
1960
7.14%
7.18%
0.52%
21.83%
7.13%
5.47%
1956
0.62%
9.09%
0.22%
13.78%
6.64%
8.16%
1952
0.27%
0.07%
1.56%
5.84%
12.14%
3.85%
1948
12.26%
15.26%
16.61%
16.32%
40.71%
15.08%
1944
21.23%
9.23%
2.94%
61.20%
40.11%
9.78%
1940
34.90%
15.14%
4.77%
71.80%
58.03%
14.20%
1936
38.10%
18.60%
22.59%
77.66%
63.94%
21.35%
1932
34.01%
18.91%
28.62%
85.77%
73.06%
10.00%
1928
7.72%
18.82%
11.43%
52.58%
20.96%
17.39%
1924
9.21%
2.96%
5.79%
56.21%
31.93%
5.38%
1920
3.10%
0.44%
11.43%
38.75%
19.76%
12.00%
1916
13.61%
5.41%
3.65%
78.95%
37.23%
0.94%
1912
28.80%
22.97%
17.60%
65.10%
34.55%
12.68%
1908
6.86%
1.71%
0.09%
72.70%
20.02%
10.25%
1904
10.83%
2.69%
3.90%
78.84%
15.10%
13.24%
1900
8.08%
1.71%
5.53%
58.07%
28.42%
9.52%
1896
5.76%
0.06%
8.71%
54.57%
48.61%
5.40%
1892
13.52%
11.73%
7.52%
53.06%
27.52%
2.44%
1888
6.49%
8.32%
4.93%
46.92%
16.75%
0.32%
1884
3.72%
12.40%
7.47%
14.85%
17.12%
3.19%
1880
9.00%
15.87%
13.83%
24.96%
17.47%
9.90%
1876
19.58%
23.98%
16.27%
3.30%
20.05%
14.60%
1872
4.32%
5.87%
11.81%
11.37%
4.35%
4.46%
1868
36.85%
49.10%
13.92%
41.38%
7.37%
17.66%
1864
---
---
---
---
---
36.47%
1860
3.17%
39.65%
39.44%
4.90%
16.01%
---
1856
4.36%
8.83%
0.26%
3.39%
34.24%
---
TOTAL
D 23 / R 14 / I 1
D 24 / R 13 / I 1
D 23 / R 15
D 24 / R 11 / I 3
D 27 / R 9 / I 2
D 21 / R 16



And here the direct comparison between TN and KY:



Year

Rank
Winning %
% Margin
Part. Value
Swing“
National Swing
Trend
2008
TN
42 / 10
56.85%
+15.06%
+22.32%
+0.79%
+9.72%
+10.51

KY
43 / 09
57.37%
+16.22%
+23.68%
-3.64%
+9.72%
+6.08
Diff:


KY +0.52%
KY +1.16%
KY +1.16%
TN +4.43%
---
TN +16.59









2004
TN
33 / 19
56.80%
+14.27%
+11.82%
+10.41%
+2.98%
+7.43

KY
38 / 14
59.55%
+19.86%
+17.40%
+4.73%
+2.98%
+1.75
Diff:


KY +2.75%
KY +5.59%
KY +5.59%
TN +5.68%
---
TN +5.68









2000
TN
27 / 25
51.15%
+3.86%
+4.38%
+6.27%
+8.00%
+1.73

KY
37 / 15
56.50%
+15.13%
+15.65%
+16.09%
+8.00%
+8.09
Diff:


KY +5.35%
KY +11.27%
KY +11.27%
KY +9.82%
---
KY +9.82









1996
TN
29 / 23
48.00%
+2.41%
-6.11%
-2.24%
+2.96%
+5.20

KY
32 / 20
45.84%
+0.96%
-7.56%
-2.25%
+2.96%
+5.21
Diff:


TN + 3.84%
TN +1.45%
TN +1.45%
TN +0.01%
---
KY +0.01









1992
TN
22 / 30
47.08%
+4.65%
-0.91%
+20.99%
+13.29%
+7.70

KY
26 / 26
44.55%
+3.21%
-2.35%
+14.85%
+13.29%
+1.56
Diff:

10
TN +2.53%
TN +1.44
TN +1.44
TN +6.14%
---
TN +6.14









1988
TN
35 / 17
57.89%
+16.34%
+8.61%
+0.07%
-10.49%
+10.56

KY
26 / 26
55.52%
+11.64%
+3.91%
-9.02%
-10.49%
+1.47
Diff:

12
TN +2.37%
TN +4.70
TN +4.70
TN +9.09%
---
TN +9.09









1984
TN
09 / 43
57.84%
+16.27%
-1.95%
+15.98%
+8.48%
+7.50

KY
13 / 39
60.04%
+20.66%
+2.44%
+19.20%
+8.48%
+10.72
Diff:


KY +2.20%
KY +4.39%
KY +4.39%
KY +3.22%
---
KY +3.22









1980
TN
08 / 44
48.70%
+0.29%
-9.45%
+13.29%
+11.80%
+1.49

KY
12 / 40
49.07%
+1.46%
-8.28%
+8.65%
+11.80%
+3.15
Diff:


KY +0.37%
KY +1.17%
KY +1.17%
TN +4.64%
---
TN +4.64


We see that for 7 of 8 cycles, 1988 being the exception, the KY has the somewhat more Republican voting record. TN voted more Democratic in 1992 and 1996, which means that automatically, KY voted more Republican. There is an interesting fact buried in this:




The Dakotas: North Dakota is the more Republican state of the two by margins and percentages.

Kansas and Nebraska: Nebraska is the more Republican of the two by margins and percentages.
Tennessee and Kentucky: Kentucky is the more Republican of the two by margins and percentages.


In all three cases of neighboring states with identical or very similar voting records, the somewhat smaller state in population is the more conservative by percentages and margins. This pattern is not detectable for the so-called „Democratic“ or „blue“ states.
Important details about TN:



Republicans:


-Since TN's entrance into the Electoral College, no Republican between Grant (1868) and Harding (1920) won TN.

-Since 1952, four 2-term Republicans have won TN both times: Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan and Bush Jr.

-Three Republicans who won TN in their first term lost TN in their re-election campaign: Grant, Hoover and Bush, Sr.

Democrats:


-Every Democratic candidate between 1872-1916 won TN, regardless of the national margin.

-Four Democratic Presidents have won TN 2 (or more times): Cleveland (1884, 1888, 1892), Wilson (both times), FDR (all four times), Clinton (both times).

-One Democratic challenger (an „also ran“) won TN three times: Bryan (1896, 1900, 1908)

-Only one Democratic incumbent in TN history has lost TN in his re-election bid: Carter (1980)

-Only one Democratic challenger who lost the GE won TN, but he won it twice: Bryan (1896, 1908)

Were Obama to win TN in 2012, regardless of winning or losing the GE, then he would set a new statistic. This is highly unlikely. If Obama loses TN but wins the GE, then he will become the first 2-Term Democratic President ever to lose TN twice.

Independents:


Only one independent candidate has ever won TN: Bell, in 1860.




Based on its voting record, TN is not bellwether state, having missed the Electoral College winner in 4 of the last 27 cycles and having missed the PV winner in 5 of the last 27 cycles, and more recently, it has missed the Electoral College winner 2 times since 1960 and the PV winner 3 times since 1960. 


Can TN become a battleground in 2012?


Most likely not. The continuing conservative trends in this state make it very unlikely that it could become a battleground. Even in a possible three-man race it would be likely that the GOP would score a majority win in this breadbasket state. TN is just not the state of the Democratic forefathers.



TN Superlatives
YEAR
Candidate
Winning %
Winning margin
GOP
1972
NIxon
67.70%
+37.95%
DEM
1936
FDR
68.85%
+38.10%
IND
1968
Wallace
34.02%
Nixon +3.83%
---------------------




All-time "squeaker"
1952
Eisenhower
49.99%
+0.27%


In Tennessee, the Governor, Lt. Governor, both Senators and 7 of 9 US Representatives are Republicans. Two US Representatives are Democrat In the Tennessee General Assembly, the Republicans have a hypermajority in both Houses.



Facit: Tennessee is becoming a Republican „firewall“-state.


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