17 December 2011

Rank 39 / 13: Mississippi

Mississippi:



Growth alert:  Votes cast in MS have grown almost 7-fold since 1948!

Results of the last 6 presidential cycles:

Year
Rank
Winning %
% Margin
Part. Value
Swing“
National Swing
Trend
2008
39 / 13
56.17%
+13.17%
+20.43%
-6.52%
+9.72%
+3.20
2004
37 / 15
59.44%
+19.69%
+17.23%
+2.78%
+2.98%
+0.20
2000
40 / 12
57.62%
+16.91%
+17.43%
+11.78
+8.00%
+3.78
1996
40 / 12
49.21%
+5.13%
+13.63%
-3.79%
+2.96%
+0.83
1992
46 / 06
49.68%
+8.92%
+14.48%
-11.90
+13.29%
+1.39
1988
41 / 11
59.89%
+20.82%
+13.09%
-3.57%
-10.49%
+6.92

Blue shading = DEM pick-up over the cycle before.
Red shading = GOP pick-up over the cycle before.
Mississippi was an even split in the last 6 cycles: 3 cycles DEM, 3 cycles GOP.

Mississippi margin average, 1988-2008 (6 cycles): 
GOP +14.11% 


Within the summary is an analysis of the swings and trend values in MS over the last six cycles.


Trend: 
STRONG REPUBLICAN

MS county-by-county EXCEL spreadsheet
(raw totals for 2008 and 2004, margins, swings, % of state PV, county growth rate)

The partisan rankings for Ranking 39 (MS) from 2008 backwards in history to 1964 in Table-format (highlighted in yellow):

Rank2008Margin '082004Margin - 042000Margin '001996Margin '961992Margin '921988Margin '88
37 - 15TX11,76%MS19,69%KY15,13%SD3,46%TX3,48%AL19,30%
38 - 14WV13,09%KY19,86%IN15,63%NC4,69%SD3,52%IN20,16%
39 - 13MS13,17%MT20,50%SC15,93%TX4,93%VA4,37%GA20,25%
40 - 12KS14,92%IN20,68%MS16,91%MS5,13%KS5,14%VA20,50%
41 - 11NE14,93%SD21,47%KS20,80%IN5,58%WY5,60%MS20,82%
42 - 10TN15,06%TX22,86%TX21,32%SC6,04%IN6,11%NV20,94%
43 - 9KY16,22%KS25,38%OK21,88%ND6,81%AL6,77%NE20,96%
44 - 8LA18,63%AK25,55%SD22,73%AL6,97%SC8,15%AZ21,21%
45 - 7AR19,85%AL25,62%MT25,07%OK7,81%OK8,62%FL22,36%
46 - 6AK21,54%ND27,36%ND27,60%WY12,98%MS8,92%WY22,52%

Rank1984Margin '841980Margin '801976Margin '761972Margin '721968Margin '681964Margin '64
01 – 51DC71,66%DC61,49%DC65,12%DC56,54%DC63,64%DC71,00%
02 – 50MN0,18%GA14,81%GA33,78%MA8,97%RI32,25%RI61,74%
03 – 49MA2,79%RI10,47%AR30,01%MN5,51%MA30,12%HI57,52%
04 – 48RI3,65%WV4,51%WV16,14%RI6,19%HI21,12%MA52,74%
05 – 47MD5,49%MN3,94%MA15,67%SD8,63%MN12,53%ME37,68%
06 – 46PA7,35%MD2,96%AL13,11%WI9,67%ME12,23%NY37,25%
07 – 45IA7,39%HI1,90%SC13,04%OR10,12%MS40.44%WV35,87%
08 – 44NY8,01%MA0,15%TN13,00%CA13,46%WV8,82%CT35,72%
09 – 43WI9,18%TN0,29%MN12,87%MI14,39%MI6,73%MI33,61%
10 – 42WV10,51%AR0,61%RI11,28%IA17,13%NY5,46%VT32,61%
11 – 41HI11,28%AL1,30%NC11,05%NY17,34%CT5,16%AK31,82%
12 – 40OR12,17%MS1,32%KY7,19%WA18,28%LA20.11%NJ31,75%
13 - 39IL12,88%KY1,46%MD6,07%CT18,44%AL47.13%MD30,94%
14 - 38WA12,97%SC1,53%LA5,78%IL18,52%PA3,57%PA30,22%
15 - 37CA16,25%NC2,12%DE5,41%PA19,98%WA2,11%KY28,36%
16 - 36TN16,27%DE2,33%FL5,28%MT20,08%MD1,64%MO28,10%
17 - 35VT17,11%NY2,67%NY4,43%DE20,41%TX1,27%MN27,76%
18 - 34OH18,76%ME3,36%MO3,63%OH21,56%AR7.64%OR27,75%
19 - 33MI18,99%WI4,72%TX3,17%ME22,98%MO1,13%NH27,28%
20 - 32DE19,85%LA5,45%PA2,66%AK23,51%NJ2,13%TX26,82%
21 - 31MO20,05%VT5,96%HI2,53%MD23,90%OH2,28%OH25,89%
22 -30GA20,39%MI6,49%MS1,88%NM24,49%AK2,64%WA24,59%
23 - 29NM20,48%MO6,81%WI1,68%MO24,59%IL2,92%WI24,35%
24 - 28KY20,66%PA7,11%OH0,27%NJ24,80%CA3,08%IA23,97%
25 - 27NJ20,89%IL7,93%OR0,17%HI24,96%DE3,51%CO23,07%
26 - 26CT21,90%CT9,63%ME0,84%VT26,20%WI3,62%DE22,17%
27 - 25ME22,05%OR9,66%IA1,01%ND26,28%GA12.43%NM18,98%
28 - 24AR22,18%OH10,60%OK1,21%WV27,22%OR6,05%IL18,94%
29 - 23AL22,26%WA12,34%VA1,34%NV27,36%KY6,14%MT18,38%
30 - 22MT22,30%IA12,70%SD1,48%CO28,01%NV8,16%CA18,32%
31 - 21LA22,60%VA12,72%CA1,78%KY28,60%NH8,18%NV17,16%
32 - 20IN23,99%NJ13,42%IL1,97%NH29,12%SC5,79%ND16,09%
33 - 19NC24,00%TX13,86%NJ2,16%AZ31,26%MT9,01%WY13,12%
34 - 18MS24,39%CA16,78%NM2,47%IN32,77%CO9,14%AR12,66%
35 - 17VA25,19%FL17,02%WA3,88%TX32,96%VT9,22%IN12,42%
36 - 16SD26,47%NM18,18%NV4,36%LA36,97%FL9,60%NC12,30%
37 - 15TX27,50%IN18,35%CT5,17%VA37,72%TN3,83%OK11,49%
38 - 14SC27,99%CO24,00%MI5,39%TN37,95%NC8,25%SD11,22%
39 - 13CO28,32%MT24,39%ND5,85%AR38,11%VA10,87%TN11,01%
40 - 12FL30,66%KS24,56%MT7,44%KS38,15%SD11,31%UT9,73%
41 - 11ND31,04%OK25,53%KS7,55%ID38,20%NM12,10%KS9,03%
42 - 10KS33,67%AK27,94%IN7,62%WY38,54%IA12,19%VA7,36%
43 - 9NV33,88%SD28,83%VT11,20%NC40,58%IN12,30%NE5,21%
44 - 8AZ33,88%NH29,39%NH11,28%NE41,00%OK15,70%FL2,30%
45 - 7AK36,79%AZ32,36%CO11,47%UT41,25%ND17,71%ID1,83%
46 - 6NH37,71%WY34,67%AZ16,57%SC42,66%UT19,42%AZ0,99%
47 - 5OK37,94%NV35,64%WY19,49%FL44,12%AZ19,76%GA8,25%
48 - 4NE41,74%ND37,97%NE20,74%AL46,89%KS20,13%LA13,63%
49 - 3WY42,27%NE39,49%AK22,25%OK49,70%WY20,25%SC17,79%
50 - 2ID45,97%ID41,27%ID22,76%GA50,39%ID26,13%AL38,90%
51 - 1UT49,83%UT52,20%UT28,79%MS58,57%NE28,01%MS74,28%









Links


Helpful Info Links
Helpful Election Links
MS VR stats - N/A
MS population 2008: 2,938,618
MS VR Archives -N/A
MS Population Density: 24.2 persons per sq. Km.
Electoral Vote Density: 489,770 persons per EV.
---




MS ELECTORAL DEVELOPMENT (electors through history) :  3 (1820-1828), 4 (1832-1840), 6 (1844-1848), 7 (1852-1860), did not vote in 1864 and 1868,  8 (1872-1880), 9 (1884-1900), 10 (1904-1928), 9 (1932-1948), 8 (1952-1960), 7 (1964-2000), 6 EV (2004-present)

SUMMARY



Mississippi is the 13th most conservative state and the 39th most liberal state, with a Republican winning margin of +13.17% and having voted 20.43% more Republican than the national margin in 2008. 

Mississippi was the 15th most conservative state and the 37nd most liberal state in 2004, with a Republican winning margin of +19.69% and having voted 17.23% more Republican than the national margin in that year.

Mississippi was also the 12nd most conservative state and the 40th most liberal state in 2000, with a Republican winning margin of +16.91% and having voted 17.43% more Republican than the national margin in that year.


From 1904 - 2008, Mississippi went for the GOP 
11 times, for the DEMS 13 times, for an independent candidate 2 times and for NO candidate 1 time.

Since 1948, Mississippi went for the GOP 
11 times, for the DEMS 3 times for an independent candidate 2 times and for NO candidate 1 time.


Since 1960, Mississippi went for the GOP 
10 times, for the DEMS 1 time, for an independent candidate 1 time and for NO candidate 1 time.



As with the rest of the Deep South, with the introduction of the GOP into the Electoral College in 1856, MS was a solid Democratic state and voted for a Republican only once in the first 108 years since 1956, namely, for Ulysses S. Grant in his 1872 re-election, by a landslide 
+26.95% margin.


In 1856, MS went for Buchanan (D) by 
+18.89% over former President Millard Fillmore. The GOP was not on the ballot in 1860 and MS did not participate in the national elections of 1864 and 1868, so 1872 was the first cycle in which the GOP appeared on the ballot in Mississippi. In 1860, with the rest of the south, MS voted for Southern Democrat John Breckinridge over Constitution Party candidate John Bell by a landslide +22.76% margin. The (Northern) Democratic Party took third place in MS in 1860.


In 1876, the first real electoral misfire in our history, MS swung wildly to the recombined Democratic Party with Samuel Tilden and gave him a massive 
+36.15% victory over Rutherford B. Hayes. In the 1876 election, due to massive election result disputes, the results of LA,. SC, FL and OR were put to a special panel of 15, who voted along party lines (8 to 7) and gave the wins to Hayes, who won in the EC by 1 elector in that year. So, in 1876, MS and SC voted for two different parties.


However, from 1880 through 1956, 76 years straight, the two states have absolutely identical voting records, both having voted for the Democratic candidate by uspeakable margins for 18 cycles in a row, from 1880 through 1944, then one cycle for States Rights candidate Strom Thurmond in 1948 and then two cycles more, both times against the Eisenhower waves of 1952 and 1956.


Here is a chart of the margins for the states of the Deep South. South Carolina holds the highest margins from the time period from 1880-1944, but Mississippi comes a very close second, with 10 cycles of margins over 
+80% (SC has 12 such cycles and therefore 1 st place in this regard), 3 of those cycles with over +90% and all three of those margins were for FDR in 1932, 1936 and 1940. Remember, the highest winning margin of any presidential candidate at the national level has been Harding's +26.17%, which is an absolute blowout margin. It is hard for the mind to comprehend a +80% or more margin, which in a two-man race means that the winning candidate scored close to or above 90% of the popular vote in order to get to a +80% margin. Barack Obama's 92.46% of the vote in DC was the first time since 1940 that a candidate scored over 90%. These are simply astronomical figures that we rarely, if ever see today.


Which means that every single Democratic candidate from 1876 through 1956, excepting Harry Truman, won MS. And the lowest winning margin from that time was 
+34.94%, comparable to Barack Obama's landslide win in VT in 2008.


But 1948 signaled the time of change for MS: Strom Thurmond and his „States Rights“ party, strongly opposed to desegregation and any form of civil rights for blacks, took 4 states in the South in 1948: SC, AL, MS an LA, and he took 3 of those 4 states with 
more than 70% of the PV. He won every single county in MS in 1948. With just 2.41% of the national vote in that year he was able to win half of the deep, deep South. That is a lot of bang for your buck, so to speak.


In 1952 and 1956, the state reverted back to the Democratic Party and gave Stevenson its electors both times, but the margins were greatly reduced in comparison to the past: 
+20.87% for Stevenson in 1952 in a strict 2-man race, +33.78% in officially a 2-man race in 1956, but with 17.31% cast for „unpledged electors“ - a phenomenon that would capture the entire state in 1960. The ballot for „unpledged electors“ even won 6 counties in the Magnolia State in that year. The slate of „unpledged electors“ that went up in a number of deep southern states was meant to sent a warning shot across the bow of the Democratic Party: „enact Civil Rights, and we will bolt from the party“.


1960 was the true test of that unsaid threat: in 1960, John Kennedy only got 
36.34% of the vote. Just 20 years earlier, FDR got 95.70% of the vote in MS. „Unpledged Electors“ won the state with 38.99% and a lean +2.64% winning margin. This was the beginning of the end for the Democratic Party in MS.


In 1964, enraged over the enactment of key portions of the Civil Rights act, MS, alongside LA, AL, GA and SC, voted against President Johnson and selected extreme right-wing libertarian-leaning Barry Goldwater (R) by unbelievably high margins. In MS, Goldwater got 
87.14% of the vote and a +74.28% margin. This was the first time that MS had selected a Republican in 92 years of history.


In 1968, another 3rd party segregationist candidate appeared on the ballot, namely George Wallace, and once again, for the third time in 20 years, MS gave a third party its vote: Wallace 
63.46%+40.44% margin. These are just incredibly high shifts from cycle to cycle, especially but not limited to MS and SC. But interestingly enough, the Republican Party, which just got 87.14% in 1964, got only 13.52% with Nixon in 1968. If that is not proof that the Goldwater vote was a huge protest vote in 1964, then....


In 1972, after four years of Nixon and his „Southern State Strategy“, MS gave the President an overwhelming majority of 
78.20% of the vote and a +58.57% winning margin.


Little known fact about MS: in 1964 and 1972 MS was the number 1 conservative state in the partisan rankings for those years.


With a massive national shift of 
+25.21% to the Democratic Party, it took a Southern Democrat, Jimmy Carter, to win MS back, but at +1.88% it was his leanest win in the South and the third leanest overall, after OH and WI. The outcomes of both Ohio and Mississippi were unknown until about 2 am the next morning. Together, they comprised 32 electors. Carter won with 297 electors. Had he lost both OH and MS, then he would have lost 265-273 against Ford in the EC in that year. Many think that Mississippi, which supported Reagan up to the convention and then switched barely toward Ford once Reagan announced a northern liberal Republican as his running mate (Richard Schweiker), so, Mississippi played a key role not only in the 1976 GE, but also in the GOP nomination process itself.


It 1980, after four years of Carter and warming up to him, Ronald Reagan just barely tipped the state back over the line to the GOP, with a 
+1.32% margin, even narrower than Carter's from '76. But the Reagan Revolution came into full bloom in 1984 and the state has not looked back to the Democratic party since then. It gave Reagan a +24.39% margin in 1984, above his national average and since then, it has stayed reliably with the GOP.


Once again, that 6 cycle table from the beginning of this analysis:

Year
Rank
Winning %
% Margin
Part. Value
Swing“
National Swing
Trend
2008
39 / 13
56.17%
+13.17%
+20.43%
-6.52%
+9.72%
+3.20
2004
37 / 15
59.44%
+19.69%
+17.23%
+2.78%
+2.98%
+0.20
2000
40 / 12
57.62%
+16.91%
+17.43%
+11.78
+8.00%
+3.78
1996
40 / 12
49.21%
+5.13%
+13.63%
-3.79%
+2.96%
+0.83
1992
46 / 06
49.68%
+8.92%
+14.48%
-11.90
+13.29%
+1.39
1988
41 / 11
59.89%
+20.82%
+13.09%
-3.57%
-10.49%
+6.92


Notice that since 1988, regardless of the outcome of the national election, MS has grown from 
+13% over the national margin to +20% over the national margin in 2008, in all cases, for the Republican Party. Interesting to note is the large trend for George W. Bush, Sr. in 1988: his margin was slightly less than Reagan's from four years earlier, but compared to the national shift, the trend toward the Republican party was strong, and that was POST-Reagan. In 1992 and 1996, we see small trend values, which means that MS hugged pretty close to the national shift. Notice that even in spite of a 3-man race in both 1992 and 1996, the GOP was just a hair's breadth away from majority win both times. George W. Bush Jr.'s partisan values are very, very stable, at a little over +17% each time and the fact that the partisan value actually rose for McCain (in spite of a reduced margin) speaks much for the right-leaning tilt of this state.

Though the Republican margins since 1980 cannot compare with the past Democratic history of the state, they are consistent and mostly very strong landslide margins. MS does not do voter registration, so we can only guess the percentage of Democrats and Republicans by watching voting patterns over a number of cycles.


Notice that MS has now rejected two Southern Democrats: Bill Clinton and Al Gore.

Notice also that MS is not a state very much for narrow margins: the margins in the first 24 cycles of its electoral history are double digit margins. Since 1960, 3 cycles have been in low single digits and the two lowest were back-to-back: 1976 and 1980.

Important details about MS:


Republicans:


-No Republican between Grant (1872) and Goldwater (1964), a span of 92 years, won MS. It was a no-go state for the GOP.

-Only 3 Republicans in history have won MS two times: Reagan, Bush 41 and Bush 43.

-Only 1 Republican in history has picked-up MS in his re-election: Nixon. True, Grant won MS in his re-election, MS did not participate in Grant's 1868 election, so no statistic can be made here.

-Only 1 Republican in the Nuclear Age never won MS: Eisenhower.



Democrats:


-Between 1876 and 1944, every Democrat won MS with astronomical margins.

-Since 1960, only 1 Democrat has won MS:Jimmy Carter

-Only 1 Democratic two-term President in history has lost MS both times: Bill Clinton

If President Obama loses MS in 2012 (and this is likely) but wins his re-election, then he joins Bill Clinton's statistic. If Obama loses MS in 2012 and also loses the GE - or he wins MS and wins the GE - then he will become a new statistic for itself.

Independents:


3 independent slates have won MS,and they did it within 24 years time: Thurmond (1948), „Unpledged Electors“ (1960), Wallace (1968)



Based on its voting record, MS is not bellwether state, having missed the Electoral College winner in 14 of the last 27 cycles and having missed the PV winner in 15 of the last 27 cycles, and more recently, it has missed the Electoral College winner 6 times since 1960 and the PV winner 7 times since 1960.


Can MS become a battleground in 2012?

Most likely not. The continuing conservative trends in this state make it very unlikely that it could become a battleground. Perhaps in a 3-way race, but even that does not necessarily favor the Democratic Party in this case.

MS Superlatives
YEAR
Candidate
Winning %
Winning margin
GOP
1972
Nixon
78.20%
 +58.57%
DEM
1936
FDR
97.06%
+94.31% 
IND
1948
Thurmond
87.17%
+77.09% 
---------------------




All-time "squeaker"
1980
Reagan
49.42%
+1.32% 


In Mississippi, the Governor, Lt. Governor, both Senators and 3 of 4 US Representatives are Republicans. The other US Representative is a Democrat. In the Mississippi Legislaturethe Republicans has a strong majority (54.9-45.1) in the Senate and a lean majority (52.4-47.6) in the House.

Facit: in 2007, I wrote: „Mississippi is a rock-solid GOP bastion and far less likely to flip than a couple of states higher in the current partisan rankings. „

Facit 2011: Indiana, Montana and both Dakotas were higher up in the conservative rankings from 2004 than Mississippi. Indiana flipped to the Democratic party in 2008, Montana became a battleground and both Dakotas were +8% wins for McCain in 2008. So, the FACIT: from 2007 in this state was right on the mark. For 2012, I don't expect to see much change in MS. It will not be a battleground if Romney is the GOP nominee. Hard to say what happens if Gingrich is the nominee, but the sparse polling of MS indicates that President Obama will probably lose MS by a larger margin in 2012 than he did in 2008, if these trends hold.

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