04 December 2011

Rank 29 / 23: North Carolina

North Carolina







Thenumber of votes cast in North Carolina in 2008 reflected a 5+-fold increase over the year 1948!
Exact ratio, 2008 over 1948: 5.49 to 1

Results of the last 6 presidential cycles:


YearRankWinning %% MarginPart. ValueSwing“National SwingTrend
2008292349.70%+0.33%-6.93%+12.76%+9.72%+3.04
2004312156.02%+12.43%+9.97%-3.38%+2.98%-6.36
200035 /1756.03%+12.83%+13.35%+0.14%+8.00%-7.86
199637 /1548.73%+4.69%+13.21%+3.90%+2.96%+6.86
199233 /1943.44%+0.79%+6.35%-15.47%+13.29%+2.18
198833 / 1957.97%+16.26%+8.53%-7.74%-10.49+2.75

Blue shading = DEM pick-up over the cycle before.Red shading = GOP pick-up over the cycle before.



Part.Value = state-wide margin minus national margin.
Swing“= statewide-margin minus statewide-margin from previous cycle.
NationalSwing“ = National margin minus National margin from previous cycle.
Trend= „Swing“ minus „National Swing“. Always a postive value.
North Carolina 
margin average, 1988-2008 (6 cycles): GOP +11.19 %


Trend:STEADY/ NEUTRAL TO LEANDEMOCRATIC



This trend designation needs an expanation: mathematically, it was a +12.76% partisan shift to switch NC from the GOP to the Democratic party in2008 – which is a good sign for the Democratic Party, but since1996, the GOP Partisan value over the national margin has shrunk:+13.21% over the national in 1992 to+9.97% over the national margin in 2004 to -6.93% for the Democrats or +6.93% for the Republicans in 2008,a still smaller value than 2004. Just a miniscule 0.17% shift in the vote in NC would have kept the state in GOP hands, and still, its partisan value would have been lower than 2004. Obama's win in NC is indeed pretty unique: only 3 other time periods in history has NC seen such a cross-partisan shift to the Democratic party: in 1976 over 1972, 1932 over 1928 and in 1876 over 1872. There have also been shifts FOR the GOP of this sort: 1972 over 1968 over 1964, and 1928 over 1924.
That being said, knowing the tendency of a state to „snap-back“ to its usual partisan configuration within a couple of cycles, the prudent method for classifying the trend of this state, which statistically would be „STRONG DEMOCRATIC“ after 2008, is STEADY/ NEUTRAL TO LEANDEMOCRATIC. There is sufficient polling data from NC to already classify it as a massive battleground for 2012.
NC county-by-county EXCEL spreadsheet
(raw totals for 2008 and 2004, margins, swings, % of state PV, county growth rate)The partisan rankings for Ranking 29 (North Carolina) from 2008 backwards in history to 1964 in Table-format (highlighted in yellow):

Rank2008Margin '082004Margin - 042000Margin '001996Margin '961992Margin '921988Margin '88
28 - 24IN1,03%VA8,20%AR5,44%FL5,70%NV2,63%DE12,40%
29 - 23NC0,33%AR9,76%AZ6,28%TN2,41%MT2,51%TX12,60%
30 - 22MO0,13%AZ10,47%WV6,32%AZ2,22%NJ2,37%ND13,06%
31 - 21MT2,38%NC12,43%LA7,68%NV1,02%OH1,83%KS13,23%
32 - 20GA5,20%WV12,86%VA8,04%KY0,96%NH1,22%NJ13,64%
33 - 19SD8,41%TN14,27%CO8,36%GA1,17%GA0,59%AR14,18%
34 - 18AZ8,48%LA14,51%GA11,69%CO1,37%NC0,79%NC16,26%
35 - 17ND8,65%GA16,60%NC12,83%VA1,96%FL1,89%TN16,34%
36 - 16SC8,98%SC17,08%AL14,88%MT2,88%AZ1,95%OK16,65%
37 - 15TX11,76%MS19,69%KY15,13%SD3,46%TX3,48%AL19,30%
38 - 14WV13,09%KY19,86%IN15,63%NC4,69%SD3,52%IN20,16%
39 - 13MS13,17%MT20,50%SC15,93%TX4,93%VA4,37%GA20,25%

Rank1984Margin '841980Margin '801976Margin '761972Margin '721968Margin '681964Margin '64
11 – 41HI11,28%AL1,30%NC11,05%NY17,34%CT5,16%AK31,82%
12 – 40OR12,17%MS1,32%KY7,19%WA18,28%LA20.11%NJ31,75%
13 - 39IL12,88%KY1,46%MD6,07%CT18,44%AL47.13%MD30,94%
14 - 38WA12,97%SC1,53%LA5,78%IL18,52%PA3,57%PA30,22%
15 - 37CA16,25%NC2,12%DE5,41%PA19,98%WA2,11%KY28,36%
16 - 36TN16,27%DE2,33%FL5,28%MT20,08%MD1,64%MO28,10%
17 - 35VT17,11%NY2,67%NY4,43%DE20,41%TX1,27%MN27,76%
18 - 34OH18,76%ME3,36%MO3,63%OH21,56%AR7.64%OR27,75%
19 - 33MI18,99%WI4,72%TX3,17%ME22,98%MO1,13%NH27,28%
20 - 32DE19,85%LA5,45%PA2,66%AK23,51%NJ2,13%TX26,82%
21 - 31MO20,05%VT5,96%HI2,53%MD23,90%OH2,28%OH25,89%
22 -30GA20,39%MI6,49%MS1,88%NM24,49%AK2,64%WA24,59%
23 - 29NM20,48%MO6,81%WI1,68%MO24,59%IL2,92%WI24,35%
24 - 28KY20,66%PA7,11%OH0,27%NJ24,80%CA3,08%IA23,97%
25 - 27NJ20,89%IL7,93%OR0,17%HI24,96%DE3,51%CO23,07%
26 - 26CT21,90%CT9,63%ME0,84%VT26,20%WI3,62%DE22,17%
27 - 25ME22,05%OR9,66%IA1,01%ND26,28%GA12.43%NM18,98%
28 - 24AR22,18%OH10,60%OK1,21%WV27,22%OR6,05%IL18,94%
29 - 23AL22,26%WA12,34%VA1,34%NV27,36%KY6,14%MT18,38%
30 - 22MT22,30%IA12,70%SD1,48%CO28,01%NV8,16%CA18,32%
31 - 21LA22,60%VA12,72%CA1,78%KY28,60%NH8,18%NV17,16%
32 - 20IN23,99%NJ13,42%IL1,97%NH29,12%SC5,79%ND16,09%
33 - 19NC24,00%TX13,86%NJ2,16%AZ31,26%MT9,01%WY13,12%
34 - 18MS24,39%CA16,78%NM2,47%IN32,77%CO9,14%AR12,66%
35 - 17VA25,19%FL17,02%WA3,88%TX32,96%VT9,22%IN12,42%
36 - 16SD26,47%NM18,18%NV4,36%LA36,97%FL9,60%NC12,30%
37 - 15TX27,50%IN18,35%CT5,17%VA37,72%TN3,83%OK11,49%
38 - 14SC27,99%CO24,00%MI5,39%TN37,95%NC8,25%SD11,22%
39 - 13CO28,32%MT24,39%ND5,85%AR38,11%VA10,87%TN11,01%
40 - 12FL30,66%KS24,56%MT7,44%KS38,15%SD11,31%UT9,73%
41 - 11ND31,04%OK25,53%KS7,55%ID38,20%NM12,10%KS9,03%
42 - 10KS33,67%AK27,94%IN7,62%WY38,54%IA12,19%VA7,36%
43 - 9NV33,88%SD28,83%VT11,20%NC40,58%IN12,30%NE5,21%




Links





NC Electoral Development
 (electors through history):12 (1792-1800), 14 (1804-1808), 15 (1812-1840), 11 (1844-1848), 10 (1852-1860), did not vote in 1864, 9 (1868), 10 (1872-1880), 11 (1884-1900), 12 (1904-1928), 13 (1932-1940), 14 (1944-1960), 13 (1964-1988), 14 (1992-2000) 15EV (2004-present).

North Carolina is the 29th most liberal state and the 23th most conservative state, with a Democratic winning margin of +0.33% and having voted 6.93% 
less Democratic than the national margin in 2008. North Carolina is one of the 9.25 Democratic „pick-up“ states from 2008, meaning it shifted from the Republican column to the Democratic column. North Carolina is the 5th of 5 states in the Union where Obama's margin was UNDER the national margin and it is the last Democratic state from 2008.
NC was the 21st most conservative state in 2004, with a Republican winning margin of +12.43% and having voted 9.97% more Republican than the national margin in that year. 




NC was the 17th most conservative state in 2000, with a Republican winning margin of +12.83% and having voted 13.35% more Republican than the national margin in that year. 




From 1904-2008, North Carolina went for the GOP 
10 times, forthe DEMS 17 times.

Since 1948 North Carolina went for the GOP 
times, for the DEMS 7 times
.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I already wrote an 
extensive county-by-county analysis of North Carolina in 2009,in three parts.

In the analysis are:
-recent electoral statistics
-extensive background information
-county-for-county analysis (percentage, percentagemargin, shift, pick-ups, tipping-point counties)
-maps
-quick mega-county study
-Conclusion.

Go to these links to read the extensive report:




North Carolina 2008 – County by County



Part I



Part II



Part III



raw data
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Based on its voting record, IN is in no way a bellwether state in the Union,having missed the winner 8 times in the last 26 cycles, or 100 years,and more recently, 2 times since 1960. These statistics refer to the winner in the Electoral College. Referring to the winner in the popular vote, then it would be 9 misses in 100 years and 3 misses since 1960.
NC SuperlativesYEARCandidateWinning %
GOP1972Nixon69.46%
DEM1940Roosevelt, FD74.03%
IND1968
---
1860
Wallace
---
Breckenridge
31.26%
---
50.51%
(Southern Democratic)
---
Southern Democratic WIN
---------------------Winning Margin %
All-time “squeaker”1992Bush+0.79%


In North Carolina, as of 2010, the Governor, Lt. Governor, 1 Senator and 7 of 13 US House Representatives are Democrats. The other Senator and 6 US House Representatives are Republicans. In the North Carolina General Assembly, the Republican Party has a hypermajority both in the Senate and a strong majority in the House.








Facit: in 2007, I wroteNorth Carolina’s steady partisan trend does not make less solid than a state than W. Virginia. Statistically, NC is safer than WV. North Carolina will stay in the solid-to-lean GOP column for a while. It is also not likely to become a battleground state.“






This was one of the few states where I was way off the mark in2007. Being sure of Hillary Clinton being the nominee at that time, there was no statistical evidence of a change in the Tarheel State. But with Obama's ascendancy to the nomination, this all changed. And as I stated above, there is already sufficient polling data from NC to classify it as a massive battleground for 2012. Please note that NC and VA combined have almost the same electoral firepower as FL.

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