03 December 2011

Rank 26 / 26: Ohio

Ohio






The number of votes cast in Ohio in 2008 reflected a close to 9-fold increase over the year 1948!
Exact ratio, 2008 over 1948: 8.88 to 1




Results of the last 6 presidential cycles:


YearRankWinning %% Margin% Margin over National
2008262651.38%+4.58%-2.68%
2004232950.81%+2.11%-0.35%
200025 /2749.97%+3.51%+4.03%
199626 /2647.38%+6.36%-2.16%
199230 /2240.18%+1.83%-3.73%
198825 /2755.00%+10.85%+3.12%

Blue shading = DEM pick-up over the cycle before.Red shading = GOP pick-up over the cycle before.
Ohio 
margin average, 1988-2008 (6 cycles): GOP +0.62%


Trend: LEAN DEMOCRATIC



OH county-by-county EXCEL spreadsheet
(raw totals for 2008 and 2004, margins, swings, % of state PV, county growth rate)
The partisan rankings for Ranking 20 (Pennsylvania) and Ranking 26 (Ohio) compared to each other from 2008 backwards in history to 1964 in Table-format (PA in yellow, OH in green):

Margin '082004Margin - 042000Margin '001996Margin '961992Margin '921988Margin '88
12 – 40ME17,32%DE7,59%VT9,94%MN16,14%WA11,44%IL2,08%
13 - 39WA17,08%WA7,18%WA5,58%MD15,99%HI11,40%PA2,32%
14 - 38MI16,44%NJ6,68%MI5,13%DE15,25%MO10,15%MD2,91%
15 - 37OR16,35%OR4,16%ME5,11%WV14,75%OR9,95%VT3,52%
16 - 36NJ15,53%MN3,48%PA4,17%MI13,21%PA9,02%CA3,57%
17 - 35NM15,13%MI3,42%MN2,40%CA12,89%NM8,56%MO3,98%
18 - 34WI13,90%PA2,50%OR0,44%WA12,54%ME8,33%NM4,96%
19 - 33NV12,49%NH1,37%IA0,31%LA12,07%DE8,20%CT5,10%
20 - 32PA10,31%WI0,38%WI0,22%IA10,34%MI7,40%MT5,87%
21 - 31MN10,24%IA0,67%NM0,06%WI10,33%CT6,43%SD6,34%
22 -30NH9,61%NM0,79%FL0,01%NH9,95%IA6,01%CO7,78%
23 - 29IA9,53%OH2,11%NH1,27%PA9,20%TN4,65%MI7,90%
24 - 28CO8,95%NV2,59%MO3,34%OR8,09%LA4,61%LA10,21%
25 - 27VA6,30%CO4,67%OH3,51%NM7,33%WI4,35%OH10,85%
26 - 26OH4,58%FL5,01%NV3,55%OH6,36%CO4,26%ME11,45%
27 - 25FL2,81%MO7,20%TN3,86%MO6,30%KY3,21%KY11,64%
28 - 24IN1,03%VA8,20%AR5,44%FL5,70%NV2,63%DE12,40%
29 - 23NC0,33%AR9,76%AZ6,28%TN2,41%MT2,51%TX12,60%
30 - 22MO0,13%AZ10,47%WV6,32%AZ2,22%NJ2,37%ND13,06%
31 - 21MT2,38%NC12,43%LA7,68%NV1,02%OH1,83%KS13,23%

Rank1984Margin '841980Margin '801976Margin '761972Margin '721968Margin '681964Margin '64
05 – 47MD5,49%MN3,94%MA15,67%SD8,63%MN12,53%ME37,68%
06 – 46PA7,35%MD2,96%AL13,11%WI9,67%ME12,23%NY37,25%
07 – 45IA7,39%HI1,90%SC13,04%OR10,12%MS40.44%WV35,87%
08 – 44NY8,01%MA0,15%TN13,00%CA13,46%WV8,82%CT35,72%
09 – 43WI9,18%TN0,29%MN12,87%MI14,39%MI6,73%MI33,61%
10 – 42WV10,51%AR0,61%RI11,28%IA17,13%NY5,46%VT32,61%
11 – 41HI11,28%AL1,30%NC11,05%NY17,34%CT5,16%AK31,82%
12 – 40OR12,17%MS1,32%KY7,19%WA18,28%LA20.11%NJ31,75%
13 - 39IL12,88%KY1,46%MD6,07%CT18,44%AL47.13%MD30,94%
14 - 38WA12,97%SC1,53%LA5,78%IL18,52%PA3,57%PA30,22%
15 - 37CA16,25%NC2,12%DE5,41%PA19,98%WA2,11%KY28,36%
16 - 36TN16,27%DE2,33%FL5,28%MT20,08%MD1,64%MO28,10%
17 - 35VT17,11%NY2,67%NY4,43%DE20,41%TX1,27%MN27,76%
18 - 34OH18,76%ME3,36%MO3,63%OH21,56%AR7.64%OR27,75%
19 - 33MI18,99%WI4,72%TX3,17%ME22,98%MO1,13%NH27,28%
20 - 32DE19,85%LA5,45%PA2,66%AK23,51%NJ2,13%TX26,82%
21 - 31MO20,05%VT5,96%HI2,53%MD23,90%OH2,28%OH25,89%
22 -30GA20,39%MI6,49%MS1,88%NM24,49%AK2,64%WA24,59%
23 - 29NM20,48%MO6,81%WI1,68%MO24,59%IL2,92%WI24,35%
24 - 28KY20,66%PA7,11%OH0,27%NJ24,80%CA3,08%IA23,97%
25 - 27NJ20,89%IL7,93%OR0,17%HI24,96%DE3,51%CO23,07%
26 - 26CT21,90%CT9,63%ME0,84%VT26,20%WI3,62%DE22,17%
27 - 25ME22,05%OR9,66%IA1,01%ND26,28%GA12.43%NM18,98%
28 - 24AR22,18%OH10,60%OK1,21%WV27,22%OR6,05%IL18,94%

Links





OH Electoral Development
 (electors through history): 3 (1804-1808), 8 (1812-1820), 16 (1824-1828), 21 (1832-1840), 23 (1844-1860), 21 (1864-1868), 22 (1872-1880), 23 (1884-1908), 24 (1912-1928), 26(1932-1940), 25 (1944-1960), 26(1964-1968), 25 (1972-1980), 23 (1984-1988), 21 (1992-2000), 20 (2004-2008),18EV (2012- ). Ohio is on the decline phase of it's second cycle of growth and decline.

Ohio is the 26th most liberal state and the 26th most conservative state, with a Democratic winning margin of +4.58% and having voted 2.68% 
lessDemocratic than the national margin in 2008. Ohio is one of the 9.25 Democratic „pick-up“ states from 2008, meaning it shifted from the Republican column to the Democratic column. Ohio is the 2nd of 5 states in the Union where Obama's margin was UNDER the national margin.
OH was the 29th most conservative state in 2004, with a Republican winning margin of +2.11% and having voted 0.35% more Republican than the national margin in that year. Ohio almost perfectly paralleled the national statistics in 2004. 




OH was the 27th most conservative state in 2000, with a Republican winning margin of +3.51% and having voted 4.03% more Republican than the national margin in that year. 




From1904-2008, Ohio went for the GOP 
16 times, for the DEMS 11 times.

Since1948Ohio went for the GOP 
10 times, for the DEMS 6 times
.
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I already wrote an 
extensive county-by-county analysis of Ohio in 2009, in three parts plus supplemental data. 

In the analysis are:
-recent electoral statistics
-extensive background information
-county-for-county analysis (percentage, percentage margin, shift, pick-ups, tipping-point counties)
-maps
-quick mega-county study
-Conclusion.

Go to these links to read the extensive report:




OHIO 2008 – County by County
forget the inverted C theory!“




Part I



Part II



Part III


rawdata

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Based on its voting record, OH 
is tied with NV as the number one bellwether state in the Union, having missed the winner in the in Electoral College of the last 29 cycles and the winner in the popular vote 3 of 29 cycles, or 106 years, and more recently, it has missed the winner in the Electoral College 1 time since 1960 and 2 times in the popular vote in those same 51 years. The key number is 2: up to 2008, both OH and MO had only missed the winner twice in the same 100+ years.With John McCain's win in MO in 2008, MO now falls out of the rankings as the number one bellwether. NV, on the other hand, has had a perfect record, but over a shorter time span. Therefore, OH and NV are THE bellwethers of the Union. The candidate who is ahead in both of these states is the candidate most likely to won the GE, plain and simple.




OH SuperlativesYEARCandidateWinning %Notes
GOP1928Hoover64.89%
DEM1964Johnson62.94%
IND1912Roosevelt, T.22.16%
---------------------Winning Margin %
All-time “squeaker”1948Truman+0.24%





In Ohio, as of 2010, the Governor, Lt. Governor 1 Senator and 13 of 18 US House Representatives are Republican. 1 Senator and the other 5 US House Representatives are Democrats. In the Ohio General Assembly, the Republican Party has a hypermajority in the Senate and a strong majority in the State House is an exact tie. The passage of Ohio's SB-05 (Union-busting bill) and the ensuing sucessful recall of said bill with Issue 2 in November, 2011, guarantees that Ohio, along with Wisconsin, will be an epicenter of bitter partisan politics through Election Day 2012.



FACIT: in 2007, I wrote:OH is statistically a GOP state, but the trend toward the Democratic party is the strongest of all the non-DEM states in the union. Most likely the polls in OH will be tight and HRC and RG will take turns having a slight lead. However, though the probability is very high that OH will flip in 2008, it will stay for now in the battleground category.

And so it was, with Obama's win in 
Ohio, which has statistically become a Democratic leaning state, but is expected to be a battleground in2012. Being one of the 3 major swing states in the nation, Ohio is a quadrennial battleground.

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