03 December 2011

Rank 24 / 28: Colorado

Colorado


The number of votes cast in Colorado in 2008 reflected a close to 5-fold increase over the year 1948!



Results of the last 6 presidential cycles:


YearRankWinning %% Margin% Margin over National
200824 2853.66%+8.95%+1.69%
200425 2750.47%+2.59%+0.13%
200033 / 1950.75%+8.36%+8.88%
199634 / 1845.80%+1.37%+9.89%
199226 / 2640.13%+4.26-1.30
198822 / 3053.03%+7.78%+0.05%

Blue shading = DEM pick-up over the cycle before.Red shading = GOP pick-up over the cycle before.
Colorado 
margin average, 1988-2008 (6 cycles): GOP+1.15%


Trend: DEMOCRATIC

CO county-by-county EXCEL spreadsheet
(raw totals for 2008 and 2004, margins, swings, % of state PV, county growth rate)

The partisan rankings for Ranking 24 (Colorado) from 2008 backwards inhistory to 1964 in Table-format (highlighted in yellow):


Rank2008Margin '082004Margin - 042000Margin '001996Margin '961992Margin '921988Margin '88Rank1984Margin '841980Margin '801976Margin '761972Margin '721968Margin '681964Margin '64
22 -30NH9,61%NM0,79%FL0,01%NH9,95%IA6,01%CO7,78%22 -30GA20,39%MI6,49%MS1,88%NM24,49%AK2,64%WA24,59%
23 - 29IA9,53%OH2,11%NH1,27%PA9,20%TN4,65%MI7,90%23 - 29NM20,48%MO6,81%WI1,68%MO24,59%IL2,92%WI24,35%
24 - 28CO8,95%NV2,59%MO3,34%OR8,09%LA4,61%LA10,21%24 - 28KY20,66%PA7,11%OH0,27%NJ24,80%CA3,08%IA23,97%
25 - 27VA6,30%CO4,67%OH3,51%NM7,33%WI4,35%OH10,85%25 - 27NJ20,89%IL7,93%OR0,17%HI24,96%DE3,51%CO23,07%
26 - 26OH4,58%FL5,01%NV3,55%OH6,36%CO4,26%ME11,45%26 - 26CT21,90%CT9,63%ME0,84%VT26,20%WI3,62%DE22,17%
27 - 25FL2,81%MO7,20%TN3,86%MO6,30%KY3,21%KY11,64%27 - 25ME22,05%OR9,66%IA1,01%ND26,28%GA12.43%NM18,98%
28 - 24IN1,03%VA8,20%AR5,44%FL5,70%NV2,63%DE12,40%28 - 24AR22,18%OH10,60%OK1,21%WV27,22%OR6,05%IL18,94%
29 - 23NC0,33%AR9,76%AZ6,28%TN2,41%MT2,51%TX12,60%29 - 23AL22,26%WA12,34%VA1,34%NV27,36%KY6,14%MT18,38%
30 - 22MO0,13%AZ10,47%WV6,32%AZ2,22%NJ2,37%ND13,06%30 - 22MT22,30%IA12,70%SD1,48%CO28,01%NV8,16%CA18,32%
31 - 21MT2,38%NC12,43%LA7,68%NV1,02%OH1,83%KS13,23%31 - 21LA22,60%VA12,72%CA1,78%KY28,60%NH8,18%NV17,16%
32 - 20GA5,20%WV12,86%VA8,04%KY0,96%NH1,22%NJ13,64%32 - 20IN23,99%NJ13,42%IL1,97%NH29,12%SC5,79%ND16,09%
33 - 19SD8,41%TN14,27%CO8,36%GA1,17%GA0,59%AR14,18%33 - 19NC24,00%TX13,86%NJ2,16%AZ31,26%MT9,01%WY13,12%
34 - 18AZ8,48%LA14,51%GA11,69%CO1,37%NC0,79%NC16,26%34 - 18MS24,39%CA16,78%NM2,47%IN32,77%CO9,14%AR12,66%
35 - 17ND8,65%GA16,60%NC12,83%VA1,96%FL1,89%TN16,34%35 - 17VA25,19%FL17,02%WA3,88%TX32,96%VT9,22%IN12,42%
36 - 16SC8,98%SC17,08%AL14,88%MT2,88%AZ1,95%OK16,65%36 - 16SD26,47%NM18,18%NV4,36%LA36,97%FL9,60%NC12,30%
37 - 15TX11,76%MS19,69%KY15,13%SD3,46%TX3,48%AL19,30%37 - 15TX27,50%IN18,35%CT5,17%VA37,72%TN3,83%OK11,49%
38 - 14WV13,09%KY19,86%IN15,63%NC4,69%SD3,52%IN20,16%38 - 14SC27,99%CO24,00%MI5,39%TN37,95%NC8,25%SD11,22%
39 - 13MS13,17%MT20,50%SC15,93%TX4,93%VA4,37%GA20,25%39 - 13CO28,32%MT24,39%ND5,85%AR38,11%VA10,87%TN11,01%
40 - 12KS14,92%IN20,68%MS16,91%MS5,13%KS5,14%VA20,50%40 - 12FL30,66%KS24,56%MT7,44%KS38,15%SD11,31%UT9,73%
41 - 11NE14,93%SD21,47%KS20,80%IN5,58%WY5,60%MS20,82%41 - 11ND31,04%OK25,53%KS7,55%ID38,20%NM12,10%KS9,03%
42 - 10TN15,06%TX22,86%TX21,32%SC6,04%IN6,11%NV20,94%42 - 10KS33,67%AK27,94%IN7,62%WY38,54%IA12,19%VA7,36%
43 – 09KY16,22%KS25,38%OK21,88%ND6,81%AL6,77%NE20,96%43 - 9NV33,88%SD28,83%VT11,20%NC40,58%IN12,30%NE5,21%
44 – 08LA18,63%AK25,55%SD22,73%AL6,97%SC8,15%AZ21,21%44 - 8AZ33,88%NH29,39%NH11,28%NE41,00%OK15,70%FL2,30%
45 – 07AR19,85%AL25,62%MT25,07%OK7,81%OK8,62%FL22,36%45 - 7AK36,79%AZ32,36%CO11,47%UT41,25%ND17,71%ID1,83%





Links







CO Electoral Development
 (electors through history) :3 (1876-1888), 4 (1892-1900), 5 (1904-1908), 6 (1912-1968), 7 (1972-1980), 8 (1984-2000), 9 (2004-present). 

Colorado is the 24nd most liberal state and the 28th most conservative state, with a Democratic winning margin of +8.95% and having voted 1.69% more Democratic than the national margin in 2008. Colorado is one of the 9.25 Democratic „pick-up“ states from 2008, meaning it shifted from the Republican column to the Democratic column. Colorado was the last state in the Partisan Rankings that President Obama won with a margin ABOVE the national margin. This means that 24of 29.25 wins were ABOVE the national average.


CO was the 27th most conservative state in 2004, with a Republican winning margin of +2.59% and having voted 0.13% more Republican than the national margin in that year.



CO was the 19th most conservative state in 2000, with a Republican winning margin of +8.36% and having voted 8.88% more Republican than the national margin in that year. 




From 1904-2008, Colorado went for the GOP 
12 times, for the DEMS 13 times.

Since1948 Colorado went for the GOP 
11 times, for the DEMS 5 times
.
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I already wrote an 
extensive county-by-county analysis of Colorado in 2009, in three parts plus supplemental data. 

In the analysis are:
-recent electoral statistics
-extensive background information
-county-for-county analysis (percentage,percentagemargin, shift, pick-ups, tipping-point counties)
-maps
-quick mega-county study
-Conclusion.

Go to these links to read the extensive report:




COLORADO2008 – County by County 
The West: extremes in geography, demographics and ideology





Part I



Part II



Part III



raw data

special 9-county 48-year voting history study


Supplemental to Colorado: DEMOGRAPHIC and ECONOMIC profile of Colorado (p.4, hispanic population) 

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Basedon its voting record, CO 
is not a bellwether state,having missed the winner in the in Electoral College 7 of the last 27 cycles and the winner in the popular vote 8 of 27 cycles (2000,1996, 1976, 1968, 1960, 1944, 1940, 1908), or 104 years, and more recently, it has missed the winner 4 times since 1960 in the popular vote and 3 times in the Electoral College. 



State SuperlativesYEARCandidateWinning %Notes
GOP1984Reagan63.44%
DEM1896Bryan84.95%+71.09% margin!
IND1912Roosevelt, T.27.09%
---------------------Winning Margin %
All-time “squeaker”1908Bryan+1.12%


In Colorado, as of 2010, the Governor, Lt. Governor and both Senators are Democrats. The US House delegation is comprised of 4 Republicans and 3 Democrats. In the Colorado General Assembly, the Democratic Party has a strong majority in the State Senate and a lean majority in the State House.



FACIT: in 2007, I wrote:„ CO is statistically a GOP state, but is becoming more and more "blue"with it's extreme population growth, especially in the Denver area.The Democrats are hopeful to pick-up CO in 2008. There is not yet enough poll data to know if this will happen of if CO will vote reliably GOP. Until such time, it will remain a battleground state. Expect the DEMS to pour more time and resources into this state than they have in the past. They are building the framework for blue three state area in the SW USA: NM, CO and NV.”

And so it was, with Obama's win in 
Colorado, which has statistically become a Democratic leaning state, but is expected to be a battleground in 2012.

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