02 December 2011

Rank 23 / 29: Iowa

Iowa
Results of the last 6 presidential cycles:
YearRankWinning %% Margin% Margin over National
200823 / 2953.93%+9.53%+2.27%
200421 / 3149.90%+0.67%-1.79%
200019 / 3348.54%+0.31%-0.21%
200020 / 3250.26%+10.34+1.82
199222 / 3043.29%+6.01+0.45
198803 / 4954.71%+10.22%+17.95%

Blue shading = DEM pick-up over the cycle before.


Red shading = GOP pick-up over the cycle before.

Iowa 
margin average, 1988-2008 (6 cycles): DEM +4.75%

I
A county-by-county EXCEL spreadsheet

(raw totals for 2008 and 2004, margins, swings, % of state PV, county growth rate)



The partisan rankings for Ranking 23 (Iowa) from 2008 backwards in history to 1964 in Table-format (highlighted in yellow):




Rank2008Margin '082004Margin - 042000Margin '001996Margin '961992Margin '921988Margin '88Rank1984Margin '841980Margin '801976Margin '761972Margin '721968Margin '681964Margin '64
01 – 51DC85,92%DC79,84%DC76,20%DC75,85%DC75,55%DC68,34%01 – 51DC71,66%DC61,49%DC65,12%DC56,54%DC63,64%DC71,00%
02 – 50HI45,26%MA25,16%RI29,08%MA33,39%MA18,52%RI11,71%02 – 50MN0,18%GA14,81%GA33,78%MA8,97%RI32,25%RI61,74%
03 – 49VT37,01%RI20,75%MA27,30%RI32,89%RI18,02%IA10,22%03 – 49MA2,79%RI10,47%AR30,01%MN5,51%MA30,12%HI57,52%
04 – 48RI27,81%VT20,14%NY24,98%NY28,86%AR17,72%HI9,52%04 – 48RI3,65%WV4,51%WV16,14%RI6,19%HI21,12%MA52,74%
05 – 47NY26,86%NY18,29%HI18,33%HI25,29%NY15,85%MA7,85%05 – 47MD5,49%MN3,94%MA15,67%SD8,63%MN12,53%ME37,68%
06 – 46MA25,81%MD12,98%CT17,47%VT22,26%VT15,70%MN7,02%06 – 46PA7,35%MD2,96%AL13,11%WI9,67%ME12,23%NY37,25%
07 – 45MD25,44%CT10,37%MD16,39%ME20,86%IL14,24%WV4,74%07 – 45IA7,39%HI1,90%SC13,04%OR10,12%MS40.44%WV35,87%
08 – 44IL25,11%IL10,34%NJ15,83%CT18,14%MD14,18%OR4,67%08 – 44NY8,01%MA0,15%TN13,00%CA13,46%WV8,82%CT35,72%
09 – 43DE24,98%CA9,95%DE13,06%NJ17,86%CA13,39%NY4,10%09 – 43WI9,18%TN0,29%MN12,87%MI14,39%MI6,73%MI33,61%
10 – 42CA24,03%ME9,00%IL12,01%IL17,51%WV13,02%WI3,62%10 – 42WV10,51%AR0,61%RI11,28%IA17,13%NY5,46%VT32,61%
11 – 41CT22,37%HI8,74%CA11,80%AR16,94%MN11,63%WA1,59%11 – 41HI11,28%AL1,30%NC11,05%NY17,34%CT5,16%AK31,82%
12 – 40ME17,32%DE7,59%VT9,94%MN16,14%WA11,44%IL2,08%12 – 40OR12,17%MS1,32%KY7,19%WA18,28%LA20.11%NJ31,75%
13 - 39WA17,08%WA7,18%WA5,58%MD15,99%HI11,40%PA2,32%13 - 39IL12,88%KY1,46%MD6,07%CT18,44%AL47.13%MD30,94%
14 - 38MI16,44%NJ6,68%MI5,13%DE15,25%MO10,15%MD2,91%14 - 38WA12,97%SC1,53%LA5,78%IL18,52%PA3,57%PA30,22%
15 - 37OR16,35%OR4,16%ME5,11%WV14,75%OR9,95%VT3,52%15 - 37CA16,25%NC2,12%DE5,41%PA19,98%WA2,11%KY28,36%
16 - 36NJ15,53%MN3,48%PA4,17%MI13,21%PA9,02%CA3,57%16 - 36TN16,27%DE2,33%FL5,28%MT20,08%MD1,64%MO28,10%
17 - 35NM15,13%MI3,42%MN2,40%CA12,89%NM8,56%MO3,98%17 - 35VT17,11%NY2,67%NY4,43%DE20,41%TX1,27%MN27,76%
18 - 34WI13,90%PA2,50%OR0,44%WA12,54%ME8,33%NM4,96%18 - 34OH18,76%ME3,36%MO3,63%OH21,56%AR7.64%OR27,75%
19 - 33NV12,49%NH1,37%IA0,31%LA12,07%DE8,20%CT5,10%19 - 33MI18,99%WI4,72%TX3,17%ME22,98%MO1,13%NH27,28%
20 - 32PA10,31%WI0,38%WI0,22%IA10,34%MI7,40%MT5,87%20 - 32DE19,85%LA5,45%PA2,66%AK23,51%NJ2,13%TX26,82%
21 - 31MN10,24%IA0,67%NM0,06%WI10,33%CT6,43%SD6,34%21 - 31MO20,05%VT5,96%HI2,53%MD23,90%OH2,28%OH25,89%
22 -30NH9,61%NM0,79%FL0,01%NH9,95%IA6,01%CO7,78%22 -30GA20,39%MI6,49%MS1,88%NM24,49%AK2,64%WA24,59%
23 - 29IA9,53%OH2,11%NH1,27%PA9,20%TN4,65%MI7,90%23 - 29NM20,48%MO6,81%WI1,68%MO24,59%IL2,92%WI24,35%
24 - 28CO8,95%NV2,59%MO3,34%OR8,09%LA4,61%LA10,21%24 - 28KY20,66%PA7,11%OH0,27%NJ24,80%CA3,08%IA23,97%
25 - 27VA6,30%CO4,67%OH3,51%NM7,33%WI4,35%OH10,85%25 - 27NJ20,89%IL7,93%OR0,17%HI24,96%DE3,51%CO23,07%
26 - 26OH4,58%FL5,01%NV3,55%OH6,36%CO4,26%ME11,45%26 - 26CT21,90%CT9,63%ME0,84%VT26,20%WI3,62%DE22,17%
27 - 25FL2,81%MO7,20%TN3,86%MO6,30%KY3,21%KY11,64%27 - 25ME22,05%OR9,66%IA1,01%ND26,28%GA12.43%NM18,98%
28 - 24IN1,03%VA8,20%AR5,44%FL5,70%NV2,63%DE12,40%28 - 24AR22,18%OH10,60%OK1,21%WV27,22%OR6,05%IL18,94%
29 - 23NC0,33%AR9,76%AZ6,28%TN2,41%MT2,51%TX12,60%29 - 23AL22,26%WA12,34%VA1,34%NV27,36%KY6,14%MT18,38%
30 - 22MO0,13%AZ10,47%WV6,32%AZ2,22%NJ2,37%ND13,06%30 - 22MT22,30%IA12,70%SD1,48%CO28,01%NV8,16%CA18,32%








IA Electoral Development
 (electors through history): 
4 (1848-1860), 8 (1864-1868), 11 (1872-1880), 13 (1884-1928), 11 (1932-1940), 10 (1944-1960), 9 (1964-1968), 8 (1972-1988), 7(1992-2004), 6 EV (2012- ).

Iowa is the 22nd most liberal state and the 30th most conservative state, with a Democratic winning margin of +9.53% and having voted 2.27% more Democratic than the national margin in 2008. Iowa is one of the 9.25 Democratic „pick-up“ states from 2008,meaning, it shifted from the Republican column to the Democratic column. 


IA was the 31st most conservative state in 2004, with a Republican winning margin of +0.67% and having voted 1.79% 
less Republican than the national margin in that year. IA is one of the two Republican „pick-up“ states from 2004, meaning, it shifted from the Democratic column to the Republican column. 

IAwas the 19th most liberal state in 2000, with a Democrtic winning margin of 
+0.31% and having voted 0.21% less Democratic than the national margin in that year. 

From 1904-2008, Iowa went for the GOP 
17 times, for the DEMS 10 times.

Since1948 Iowa went for the GOP 
9 times, for the DEMS 7times
.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I already wrote an 
extensive county-by-county analysis of Iowa in 2009,in three parts plus supplemental data. 

In the analysis are:
-recent electoral statistics
-extensive background information-county-for-county analysis (percentage, percentage margin, shift, pick-ups, tipping-point counties)
-maps
-quick mega-county study
-Conclusion.




Go to these links to read the extensive report:

IOWA







-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Based on its voting record, IA 
is not a bellwether state, having missed the winner in the Electoral College in 7 of the last 26 cycles, or 100 years, and more recently, it has missed the winner 5 times since 1960. In the case of electoral college misses, IOWA has missed it for a winning Democratic candidate 7 of 8 times: 1916,1940,1944, 1960, 1976, 2000. Only in 1988 did it miss the winner who was a Republican: Bush 41. It has missed the winner in the popular vote in 6 of the last 26 cycles,or 100 years, and more recently, it has mssed the winner in the popular vote 4 times since 1960. This means that, based on it's voting record, if IA is to err, it is more likely to err on the sideof the GOP.


IA SuperlativesYEARCandidateWinning %Notes
GOP1920Harding70.91%
DEM1962Johnson61.88%
IND1912Roosevelt, T.32.87%
---------------------Winning Margin %
All-time "squeaker"2000Gore+0.31%


In Iowa, as of 2010, the Governor, Lt. Governor, 1 Senator and 3 of 5 congressional representatives are Republicans. The other Senator and 2 Representative are Democrats. In the Iowa General Assembly, the Democratic Party has a lean majority in the State Senate and the Republican Party has a hypermajority in the State House.


Facit:
 Iowa has statistically become a solid Democratic state, but is expected to be a battleground in 2012.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Constructive comments and critique are always welcome. Please keep it polite and respectful.