17 November 2011

Statewide polling data through 11/16/2011 - NH through WI

New Hampshire – DEM


Pollster
Date
Romney
Bachmann
Perry
other
Gingrich.
Huckabee
Trump
Pawlenty
Palin
10/11/11
40 / 49
 
46 /40

 
 
 
 
 
10/08/11
42 / 50
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
07/07/11
44 / 46
49 /42

49 / 39
(Cain)
--
--
--
48 /41
56 / 38
07/06/11
43 / 47
47 /41

---
----
 
 
47 /38
---
04/28/11
43 / 50
---
 
---
----
46 / 42
---
45 /38
---
04/22/11
39 / 47
---
 
28 / 48
47 / 27
41 / 25
42 / 23
----
45 / 37
51 / 29
 
54 / 27
04/06/11
47 / 46
---
 
51 / 37
52 / 39
52 / 38
---

56 / 34
02/14/11
48 / 44
---
 
---
56 / 33
51 / 38
---

57 / 34


Obama 2008 margin: +9.61
Kerry 2004 margin: +1.37
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +11.34
------------------------------------------------------------------
New Jersey- DEM


Pollster
Date
Romney
Cain
Perry
Gingrich
Bachmann
other
10/16/11
49 / 40
55 / 32
54 / 31
53 / 34
---
---
10/13/11
47 / 41
47 / 38
49 / 36

---
---
07/21/11
53 / 39
55 / 29
---
---
55 / 35
56 / 39
(Christie)
59 / 33
(Palin)
54 / 32
(Pawlenty)
06/30/11
---
---
---
---
---
56 / 33
(Christie)
05/27/11
49 / 43
--
---
---
---
49 / 44
(Christie)
01/11/11
52 / 37
59 / 29
---
54 / 37
---
55 / 38
(Christie)

53/36
(Huckabee)


Obama 2008 margin: +15.53
Kerry 2004 margin: +6.68
DEM margin average 1948-2004: +3.43


--------------------------------------------------------------------------
New Mexico- DEM pick-up


Pollster
Date
Romney
Bachmann
Perry
Palin
Cain
other
Gingrich.
Huckabee
06/29/11
49 / 42
52 / 37

56 / 36
52 / 36
46 / 43
(Johnson)

51 / 36
(Pawlenty)
---

02/09/11
53 / 37
--
--
62 / 33
--
51 / 36
56 / 35
55 / 36


Obama 2008 margin: +15.13
Bush 2004 margin: +0.79
GOP margin average 1948-2004: +4.10


----------------------------------------------------------------------------
New York- DEM


Pollster
Date
Romney
Cain
Perry
Bachmann
Paul
Other
Palin
Giuliani
11/15/11
59 / 34
63 / 27
63 / 28
64 / 27
60 / 31
---
---
---
11/02/11
59 / 35
62 / 31
64 / 29
---
---
---
---
---
10/18/11
55 / 37
---
58 / 31
---
---
---
---
---
Quinnipiac
09/20/11
---
---
---
---
---
52 / 33
(generic)
---
---
08/16/11
55 / 37
---
57 / 30
60 / 30
62 / 32
---
65 /26
50 / 44


Obama 2008 margin: +26.86
Kerry 2004 margin: +18.29
DEM margin average 1948-2004: +5.42


---------------------------------------------------------------------------
North Carolina – DEM pick-up


Pollster
Date
Romney
Bachmann
Perry
Cain
Gingrich.
Other
Huckabee
Trump
Palin
11/02/11
45 / 46
50 / 42
50 / 42
47 / 44
50 / 43
48 / 40
(Paul)
 
 
 
10/21/11
---
---
---
41 / 46
---
---
 
 
 
10/06/11
46 / 45
49 / 42
48 / 44
 
49 / 42
45 / 46
(Christie)
46 / 43
(Paul)
 
 
 
09/13/11
45 / 43
--
48 / 43
---
--
--
--
--
--
09/09/11
45 / 44
47 / 45
46 / 46
---
48 / 43
---
 
 
49 / 42
08/11/11
46 / 43
50 / 40
48 / 40
50 / 37
---

 
 
 
52 / 39
07/18/11
--
--
42 / 45
--
--

 
 
 
--
07/13/11
45 / 45
46 / 43

46 / 42
---
46 / 41
(Pawlenty)
 
 
50 / 42
06/13/11
45 / 44
---
 
48 / 37
50 / 40
47 / 40
(Pawlenty)
--
--
52 / 38
05/25/11
46 / 43
---
 
--
50 / 42

47 / 46
52 / 35
52 / 40
04/26/11
47 / 44
---
 
--
49 / 45

48 / 47
51 / 39
52 / 40
03/23/11
44 / 42
---
 
--
47 / 42

45 / 45

51 / 40
02/23/11
47 / 44
---
 

48 / 44

46 / 47

51 / 41
01/25/11
47 / 44
---
 

50 / 44

49 / 45

50 / 41
12/22/10
46 / 43
---
 

48 / 42

45 / 46

52 / 38
11/29/10
47 / 46
---


49 / 43

48 / 45

51 / 42




Obama 2008 margin: +0.33
Bush 2004 margin: +12.44
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +4.13
GOP combined margin average 1952-2008: +5.66
GOP combined margin average 1988-2008: +7.78
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ohio - DEM pick-up

Pollster
Date
Romney
Bachmann
Perry
Cain
Gingrich.
other
Huckabee
Palin
11/10/11
45 / 42
---
48 / 36
48 / 38
49 / 37
---
 
 
11/09/11
50 / 41
51 / 37
53 / 36
50 / 39
51 / 38
50 / 36
(Paul)
 
 
10/26/11
45 / 41
---
47 / 36
47 / 39
---
---
 
 
10/20/11
46 / 46
49 / 40
50 / 41
48 / 45
51 / 40
48 / 40
(Paul)
 
 
09/28/11
44 / 41
---
44 / 42
 
---
---
 
---
08/16/11
45 / 43
48 / 41
45 / 41
47 / 39
---

 
 
51 / 38
07/21/11
45 / 41
49 / 36
47 / 35

---
---
 
51 / 35
05/24/11
46 / 42
---
---

49 / 40
48 / 38
---
50 / 40
03/24/11
--
---
---
 
--
41 / 34
--
--
03/18/11
46 / 40
---
---

50 / 38
----
48 / 41
52 / 36
01/20/11
--
---
---

--
44 / 39
--
--
12/14/10
44 / 42
---
---

47 / 41
----
45 / 44
49 / 42


Obama 2008 margin: +4.58
Bush 2004 margin: +2.11
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +5.15




----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oregon – DEM

Pollster
Date
Romney
Bachmann
Pawlenty
Palin
Cain
Gingrich.
other
06/23/11
50 / 38
53 / 35
52 / 34
57 / 35
53 / 32
---
 


Obama 2008 margin: +16.35
Kerry 2004 margin: +4.16
GOP margin average 1948-2004: +1.58


----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pennsylvania – DEM

Pollster
Date
Romney
Cain
Perry
Bachmann
Gingrich.
other
Huckabee
Palin
11/11/11
44 / 44
---
---
---
47 / 40
Obama-Clinton 50 / Romney-Gingrich 41

Obama-Biden 46 / Romney-Gingrich 45

Obama-Clinton 50 / Gingrich-Romney 40

Obama-Biden 46 / Gingrich-Romney 42
 
 
11/10/11
44 / 43
48 / 38
47 / 38
---
48 / 38
---
 
 
11/02/11
35 / 26
38 / 24
40 / 20

 
38 / 25
(Santorum)
 
 
09/28/11
45 / 43
 
46 / 40
---
---
45 / 42
(Santorum)
 
---
09/19/11
50 / 40
 
52 / 37
---
---
---
 
---
09/01/11
36 / 30

38 / 27
42 / 23
---
39 / 31
(Santorum)
 
---
Muhlenberg
08/07/11
---
 
---
---
---
36 / 31
(generic)
 
---
08/02/11
42 / 44

45 / 39
47 / 39
 
 
 
 
07/08/11
44 / 44


50 / 43
--
49 / 38
(Cain)
50 / 40
(Santorum)
47 / 39
(Pawlenty)
 
--
06/15/11
47 / 40
 
---
---
---
49 / 38
(Santorum)
 
---
04/12/11
42 / 43

---
---
47 / 39
45 / 43
45 / 44
50 / 39
03/07/11
43 / 36

---
---
----
37 / 33
44 / 34
53 / 35
01/06/11
46 / 42



50 / 40
----
47 / 44
51 / 36


Obama 2008 margin: +10.31
Kerry 2004 margin: +2.50
DEM margin average 1948-2004: +0.25
DEM margin average 1952-2008: +0.94
DEM margin average 1988-2008: +5.48


-----------------------------------------------------------------
Rhode Island – DEM

Pollster
Date
Romney
Bachmann
Gingrich.
Palin
other
Huckabee
02/28/11
54 / 37
---
60 / 27
65 / 24
----
56 / 31




Obama 2008 margin: +27.81
Kerry 2004 margin: +20.75
DEM combined margin average 1948-2004: +16.23


------------------------------------------------------------------------------
South Carolina – GOP


Pollster
Date
Romney
Bachmann
Perry
Gingrich.
Palin
Cain
other
Huckabee
10/19/11
40 / 46
---
42 / 43
---
---
42 / 44
---
 
09/01/11
38 / 53
44 / 44
41 / 49
44 / 45
44 / 45
---
---
 
06/10/11
41 / 50
---

46 / 44
48 / 43
43 / 40
44 / 47
(DeMint)
42 / 42
(Pawlenty)
 

02/03/11
42 / 49
---

44 / 43
47 / 41

45 / 47
(DeMint)
43 / 49
(Pawlenty)
43 / 49


McCain 2008 margin: +8.98
Bush 2004 margin: +17.08
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +7.47
GOP combined margin average 1952-2008: +9.53
GOP combined margin average 1988-2008: +13.35


---------------------------------------------------------------
South Dakota – GOP


Pollster
Date
Romney
Bachmann
Gingrich.
Palin
other
Huckabee
02/01/11
40 / 46
---
44 / 42
48 / 40
37 /57
41 / 47


McCain 2008 margin: +8.41
Bush 2004 margin: +21.47
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +13.31


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tennessee – GOP


Pollster
Date
Romney
Cain
Perry
Bachmann
Gingrich.
other
Huckabee
Palin
11/13/11
38 / 42
37 / 41
39 / 40
---
---
---
 
 
10/24/11
30 / 48
30 / 44
30 / 45
---
---
---
 
Palin
06/21/11
37.0 / 34.7
---
---
38.1 / 26.8
36.7 / 28.1

36.7 / 28.1
(Pawlenty)
---
42.5 / 29.0
02/17/11
41 / 48
---
---
---
43 / 46
---
41 / 53
45 / 45


McCain 2008 margin: +15.06
Bush 2004 margin: +14.27
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +4.23
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Texas – GOP


Pollster
Date
Romney
Bachmann
Perry
Palin
Cain
Other
Gingrich.
Huckabee
10/25/11
30 / 48
---
30 / 45
---
30 / 44
---
---
 
09/20/11
41 / 47
45 / 43
40 / 51
---
---
42 / 43
(Paul)
46 / 44
 
06/29/11
42 / 50
44 / 47
47 /45
46 /44
43 /43
40 /45
(Paul)
---

01/20/11
42 / 49
--
45 / 45
46 / 47
---
---
43 / 48
39 / 55


McCain 2008 margin: +11.76
Bush 2004 margin: +22.86
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +5.49
GOP combined margin average 1952-2008: +9.05
GOP combined margin average 1988-2008: +12.83


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Utah – GOP


Pollster
Date
Romney
Bachmann
Huntsman
Pawlenty
Palin
Cain
07/15/11
31 / 63
35 / 49
23 / 63
34 / 45
41 / 43
36 / 43


McCain 2008 margin: +28.02
Bush 2004 margin: +45.54
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +26.59


Victory for any GOP candidate is all but guaranteed in this the no. 1 conservative state in the union.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Vermont – DEM


Pollster
Date
Romney
Bachmann
Perry
Cain
Palin
other
08/16/11
54 / 34
58 / 30
57 / 28
58 / 26
62 / 28
 




Obama 2008 margin: +37.01
Kerry 2004 margin: +20.14
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +6.93


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Virginia – DEM pick-up


Pollster
Date
Romney
Perry
Bachmann
Palin
Cain
Gingrich.
other
Trump
Huckabee
10/11/11
44 / 45
47 / 42
---
---
45 / 43
---
---
---
---
10/01/11
45 / 46
---
---
---
---
---
---
---
---
09/26/11
37 / 45
40 / 42
46 / 35
50 / 31
---
---
43 / 33
(Paul)
---
---
09/15/11
42 / 44
44 / 42
48 / 37
50 / 35
---
---
---
---
---
07/26/11
47 / 43
---
49 / 40
51 / 37
49 / 38
--
48 / 39
(Perry)
---
---
06/30/11
--
---
--
--
---
--
43 / 41
(generic)
--
---
05/10/11
51 / 40
---
---
55 / 40
---
54 / 37
51 / 43
52 / 32
52 / 43
05/09/11
50 / 44
---
---
59 / 33
---
----
54 / 36
58 / 32
52 / 44
03/02/11
48 / 42
---
---
54 / 35
---
51 / 39
----
---
51 / 43
11/16/10
48 / 43
---
---
51 / 40
---
52 / 41
----
---
49 / 44


Obama 2008 margin: +6.30
Bush 2004 margin: +8.20
Virginia Partisan shift 2008 over 2004: DEM +14.50
Partisan shift compared to national partisan shift: 14.50 – 9.72 = +4.78


GOP combined margin average 1948--2004: +10.14
GOP combined margin average 1952-2008: +10.18
GOP combined margin average 1988-2008: +6.13


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Washington –DEM

Pollster
Date
Romney
Perry
Bachmann
Gingrich.
Palin
other
Huckabee
10/31/11
50.2 / 40.7
54.0 / 40.7
---
---
---
---
---
09/19/11
49 / 40
51 / 37
-------
---
---
---
---
05/20/11
51 / 40
---
---
54 / 36
57 / 34
58 / 31
53 / 39


Obama 2008 margin: +17.08
Kerry 2004 margin: +7.18
DEM margin average 1948-2004: +0.97

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
West Virginia – GOP


Pollster
Date
Romney
Bachmann
Perry
Gingrich.
other
Huckabee
Palin
10/07/11
released:
10/13/11
33 / 54
37 / 52
36 / 52
36 / 51
34 / 53
(Christie)
34 / 48
(Paul)
 
---
09/16/11
37 / 49
39 / 48
38 / 49
40 / 45
 
 
42 / 45
01/27/11
37 / 50
---
 
39 / 49
---
36 / 54
42 / 46


McCain 2008 margin: +13.09
Bush 2004 margin: +12.86
DEM combined margin average 1948-2004: +3.81
DEM combined margin average 1952-2008: +1.93
DEM combined margin average 1988-2008: +0.04


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wisconsin – DEM

Pollster
Date
Romney
Bachmann
Perry
Cain.
Gingrich
other
Huckabee
Palin
10/31/11
45 / 41
---
42 / 46
47 / 42
---
---
 
 
10/28/11
46 / 35
---
48 / 30
50 / 31
---
---
 
 
10/28/11
46 / 43
51 / 40
50 / 39
49 / 42
52 / 38
48 / 39
(Paul)
 
 
08/24/11
47 / 42
51 / 39
50 / 40
50 / 36
---
--
 
52 / 40
05/26/11
51 / 39
---
---
---
53 / 35
50 / 43
(Ryan)

55 / 36
03/03/11
48 / 38
---
---
---
51 / 39
49 / 40
(Ryan)
48 / 41
54 / 35




Obama 2008 margin: +13.90
Kerry 2004 margin: +0.38
GOP margin average 1948-2004: +1.83

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