27 November 2011

Rank 8 / 44: Illinois

Illinois





Results of the last 6 presidential cycles:


Year
Rank
Winning %
% Margin
Part. Value
Swing“
National Swing
Trend
2008
08 / 44
61.85%
+25.11%
+17.85%
+14.77%
+9.72%
+5.05
2004
08 / 44
54.82%
+10.34%
+12.80%
-1.67%
+2.98%
+1.31
2000
09 / 43
54.60%
+12.01%
+11.49%
-5.50%
+8.00%
+2.50
1996
09 / 43
54.32%
+17.51%
+8.99%
+3.27%
+2.96%
+0.31
1992
07 / 45
48.58%
+14.24%
+8.68%
+16.32%
+13.29%
+3.03
1988
12 / 40
50.69%
+2.08%
+5.65%
-10.80%
-10.49%
+0.31

blue shading = DEM pick-up


Illinois Margin average, 1988-2008 (6 cycles): DEM +13.68%

Trend: STRONG DEMOCRATIC

(raw totals for 2008 and 2004, margins, swings, % of state PV, county growth rate)



The partisan rankings for Ranking 8 (Illinois) from 2008 backwards in history to 1964 in Table-format, in 2 graphics (highlighted in yellow):
Rank2008Margin '082004Margin - 042000Margin '001996Margin '961992Margin '921988Margin '88
01 – 51DC85,92%DC79,84%DC76,20%DC75,85%DC75,55%DC68,34%
02 – 50HI45,26%MA25,16%RI29,08%MA33,39%MA18,52%RI11,71%
03 – 49VT37,01%RI20,75%MA27,30%RI32,89%RI18,02%IA10,22%
04 – 48RI27,81%VT20,14%NY24,98%NY28,86%AR17,72%HI9,52%
05 – 47NY26,86%NY18,29%HI18,33%HI25,29%NY15,85%MA7,85%
06 – 46MA25,81%MD12,98%CT17,47%VT22,26%VT15,70%MN7,02%
07 – 45MD25,44%CT10,37%MD16,39%ME20,86%IL14,24%WV4,74%
08 – 44IL25,11%IL10,34%NJ15,83%CT18,14%MD14,18%OR4,67%
09 – 43DE24,98%CA9,95%DE13,06%NJ17,86%CA13,39%NY4,10%
10 – 42CA24,03%ME9,00%IL12,01%IL17,51%WV13,02%WI3,62%
11 – 41CT22,37%HI8,74%CA11,80%AR16,94%MN11,63%WA1,59%
12 – 40ME17,32%DE7,59%VT9,94%MN16,14%WA11,44%IL2,08%




Rank1984Margin '841980Margin '801976Margin '761972Margin '721968Margin '681964Margin '64
13 - 39IL12,88%KY1,46%MD6,07%CT18,44%AL47.13%MD30,94%
14 - 38WA12,97%SC1,53%LA5,78%IL18,52%PA3,57%PA30,22%
15 - 37CA16,25%NC2,12%DE5,41%PA19,98%WA2,11%KY28,36%
16 - 36TN16,27%DE2,33%FL5,28%MT20,08%MD1,64%MO28,10%
17 - 35VT17,11%NY2,67%NY4,43%DE20,41%TX1,27%MN27,76%
18 - 34OH18,76%ME3,36%MO3,63%OH21,56%AR7.64%OR27,75%
19 - 33MI18,99%WI4,72%TX3,17%ME22,98%MO1,13%NH27,28%
20 - 32DE19,85%LA5,45%PA2,66%AK23,51%NJ2,13%TX26,82%
21 - 31MO20,05%VT5,96%HI2,53%MD23,90%OH2,28%OH25,89%
22 -30GA20,39%MI6,49%MS1,88%NM24,49%AK2,64%WA24,59%
23 - 29NM20,48%MO6,81%WI1,68%MO24,59%IL2,92%WI24,35%
24 - 28KY20,66%PA7,11%OH0,27%NJ24,80%CA3,08%IA23,97%
25 - 27NJ20,89%IL7,93%OR0,17%HI24,96%DE3,51%CO23,07%
26 - 26CT21,90%CT9,63%ME0,84%VT26,20%WI3,62%DE22,17%
27 - 25ME22,05%OR9,66%IA1,01%ND26,28%GA12.43%NM18,98%
28 - 24AR22,18%OH10,60%OK1,21%WV27,22%OR6,05%IL18,94%
29 - 23AL22,26%WA12,34%VA1,34%NV27,36%KY6,14%MT18,38%
30 - 22MT22,30%IA12,70%SD1,48%CO28,01%NV8,16%CA18,32%
31 - 21LA22,60%VA12,72%CA1,78%KY28,60%NH8,18%NV17,16%
32 - 20IN23,99%NJ13,42%IL1,97%NH29,12%SC5,79%ND16,09%


Links




Helpful Info Links Helpful Election Links
IL county-by-county EXCEL spreadsheet 
IL VR - none
IL Population 2008: 12,901,563 IL elections - recent
IL Population Density: 89.6 persons per sq Km.
---
Electoral Vote Density: 614,630 persons per EV. ---


IL Electoral Development (electors through history): 5 (1832-1840), 9 (1844-1848), 11 (1852-1860), 16 (1864-1868), 21 (1872-1880),  22 (1884-1888), 24 (1892-1900), 27 (1904-1908), 29 (1912-1940),  28 (1944-1948), 27 (1952-1960), 26 (1964-1980), 24 (1984-1988), 22 (1992-2000), 21 (2004-2008), 20 EV (2012- )


Illinois is the 8th most liberal state and the 44th most conservative state, with a Democratic winning margin of +25.11% and having voted 17.85% more Democratic than the national margin in 2008. 

Illinois was also the 8th most liberal state and the 44th most conservative state in 2004, with a Democratic winning margin of +10.34% and having voted 12.80% more Democratic than the national margin in that year.

Illinois was the 9th most liberal state and the 43rd most conservative state in 2000, with a Democratic winning margin of +12.01% and having voted 11.49% more Democratic than the national margin in that year.



From 1904-2008, IL went for the GOP 14 times, for the DEMS 13 times.
Since 1948 IL went for the GOP 
8 times, for the DEMS 8 times. (1:1 ratio)


Summary

llinois, the home-state of Abraham Lincoln, was as of the Civil War a Republican state, having gone for the GOP in every election except for 2 between the Civil War and the Great Depression (1892 – Cleveland +3.09% margin / 1912 - Wilson +1.62% margin), or 16 of 18 cycles.

However, 7 of 12 GOP margins between 1860-1908 were single digit-margins. As a matter of fact, only one Republican 2-term president has ever won Illinois both times with a double-digit margin: Ulysses S. Grant in 1868 (+11.39%) and 1872 (+13.27%). Neither Ike nor Nixon nor Reagan were able to do this: all three of those Republican presidents went from a single-digit win in their first term to a double digit win in their second term.

It should be noted that in the 7 cycles before the GOP entered the Electoral College in 1856, from 1828-1952, IL voted for the Democratic Party every single time. Including Buchanan's win in 1856- that makes 8 Democratic cycles before the Civil War itself.


With FDR, Illinois went in to the DEM column and stayed there until Eisenhower. From 1920-1972 (52 years), Illinois was a bellwether state, having picked the winner 14 times in a row. FDR was the first modern Democrat to win the state two times in a row (actually, he won it four times in a row), and with +10% or more landslides the first two times: +13.19% in 1932, +18.01% in 1936. Andrew Jackson also won IL twice, in 1828 and 1832, but that was before the GOP existed.

That 14-cycle bellwether streak was broken in 1976 when the state went for President Gerald Ford, but Jimmy Carter won the election. Since 1992, it has become reliably Democratic and with double digit margins 5 cycles in a row. Bill Clinton was the second Democratic President in history to win IL both times with double digit margins: +14.24% in 1992, +17.51% in 1996.

Obama's massive landslide in IL (+25.11%) is the largest Democratic winning percentage and Democratic margin percentage in IL history and the largest raw vote margin (+1,388,169 votes) in the states history. It is fourth largest % margin in IL history, after 1920, 1924 and 1904. This means that we have to go back 88 years in history to find a landslide in IL more impressive than Obama's from 2008.



Statistically, the results of the 2008 election in the home-states of the two Democratic Candidates (Barack Obama - Illinois, Joe Biden - Delaware), are practically identical to each other:



State
Year
Rank
Winning %
% Margin
Part. Value
Swing“
National Swing
Trend
Illinois
2008
08 / 44
61.85%
+25.11%
+17.85%
+14.77%
+9.72%
+5.05

2004
08 / 44
54.82%
+10.34%
+12.80%
-1.67%
+2.98%
+1.31









Delaware
2008
09 / 43
61.91%
+24.98%
+17.72%
+17.39%
+9.72%
+7.67

2004
12 / 40
53.35%
+7.59%
+10.05%
-5.47%
+2.98%
+2.49









Difference
2008
1
DE +0.06%
IL +0.13%
IL +0.13%
DE +2.62%
---
DE +2.62

2004
4
IL +1.47%
IL +2.75%
IL +2.75%
IL +3.80
---
IL +3.80



Obama actually had a higher percentage in DE, but just by 0.06%, but his margin in IL is 0.13% larger than in DE. Because DE sprang from a smaller margin in 2004 to 2008 than Illinois did, it actually trended slightly more Democratic than Illinois in 2008. This is common in smaller states vs. larger states: the smaller state can swing and trend more than the bigger state. We will see a lot of this when we compare some Republican states to each other, like Nebraska and Kansas, North Dakota and South Dakota, Utah and Idaho.

Of the last 6 cycles, two statistics stand out: first, the partisan value (state margin over the national margin) for this state has increased for the Democrats in every cycle since 1988, from the +8% over the national margin range in the 1990s, to the low teens above the national margin in 2000 and 2004 and then a large almost +18% over the national margin in 2008. Second, IL had two cycles very close to each other (1988, 1996) with identical trend values: +0.31% trend for the Democratic party. This is a rarity in electoral statistics. And such a small value means that the state hugged very close to the national trend.



IL - Superlatives
YEAR
Candidate
Winning %
% Margin
GOP
1920
Harding
67.81%
+42.30%
DEM
2008
Seymour
61.85%
+25.11%
IND
1912
Roosevelt, T.
33.72%
highest Ind showing
---------------------




All-time “squeaker”
1960
Kennedy
49.98%
+0.18%

 
  

In Illinois, the Governor, Lt. Governor, 1 Senator and 8 of 19 Representatives are Democrats. 11 Representatives and one Senator are Republican. In the Illinois General Assembly, both houses have lean Democratic majorities. This is a major change over 2008, where both Senators were Democratic and the congressional delegation consisted of 12 Democrats and 7 Republicans. Mark Kirk, a Republican, won President Obama's former Senate seat, a seat he won with 70% of the vote in 2004. 

Facit:  All appearances are that many races in IL will be competitive in 2012, but not the presidential race. Illinois is a "firewall" Democratic state at the presidential level, and being Obama's home-state, is guaranteed to go for the President. And the likelihood that President Obama will retain his "home"-state with a double digit margin is extremely high, which would make him the third Democratic President in US history to win IL both times with double-digit margins.

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