27 November 2011

Rank 7 / 45: Maryland

Maryland


Results of the last 6 presidential cycles:



Year
Rank
Winning %
% Margin
Part. Value
Swing“
National Swing
Trend
2008
07 / 45
61.92%
+25.44%
+18.18%
+12.46%
+9.72%
+2.74
2004
06 / 46
55.91%
+12.98%
+15.44%
-3.41%
+2.98%
+0.43
2000
07 / 45
56.57%
+16.39%
+15.84%
+0.40%
+8.00%
+8.40
1996
13 / 39
52.45%
+15.99%
+7.47%
+1.81%
+2.96%
+1.15
1992
07 / 45
49.80%
+14.18%
+8.62%
+17.09%
+13.29%
+3.80
1988
14 / 38
51.11%
+2.91%
+4.82%
-2.58%
-10.49%
+7.91



Maryland Margin average, 1988-2008 (6 cycles): DEM +13.68%


Trend: STRONG DEMOCRATIC


MD county-by-county EXCEL spreadsheet
(raw totals for 2008 and 2004, margins, swings, % of state PV, county growth rate)

The partisan rankings for Ranking 7 (Maryland) from 2008 backwards in history to 1964 in Table-format (highlighted in yellow):
Rank2008Margin '082004Margin - 042000Margin '001996Margin '961992Margin '921988Margin '88Rank1984Margin '841980Margin '801976Margin '761972Margin '721968Margin '681964Margin '64
05 – 47NY26,86%NY18,29%HI18,33%HI25,29%NY15,85%MA7,85%05 – 47MD5,49%MN3,94%MA15,67%SD8,63%MN12,53%ME37,68%
06 – 46MA25,81%MD12,98%CT17,47%VT22,26%VT15,70%MN7,02%06 – 46PA7,35%MD2,96%AL13,11%WI9,67%ME12,23%NY37,25%
07 – 45MD25,44%CT10,37%MD16,39%ME20,86%IL14,24%WV4,74%07 – 45IA7,39%HI1,90%SC13,04%OR10,12%MS40.44%WV35,87%
08 – 44IL25,11%IL10,34%NJ15,83%CT18,14%MD14,18%OR4,67%08 – 44NY8,01%MA0,15%TN13,00%CA13,46%WV8,82%CT35,72%
09 – 43DE24,98%CA9,95%DE13,06%NJ17,86%CA13,39%NY4,10%09 – 43WI9,18%TN0,29%MN12,87%MI14,39%MI6,73%MI33,61%
10 – 42CA24,03%ME9,00%IL12,01%IL17,51%WV13,02%WI3,62%10 – 42WV10,51%AR0,61%RI11,28%IA17,13%NY5,46%VT32,61%
11 – 41CT22,37%HI8,74%CA11,80%AR16,94%MN11,63%WA1,59%11 – 41HI11,28%AL1,30%NC11,05%NY17,34%CT5,16%AK31,82%
12 – 40ME17,32%DE7,59%VT9,94%MN16,14%WA11,44%IL2,08%12 – 40OR12,17%MS1,32%KY7,19%WA18,28%LA20.11%NJ31,75%
13 - 39WA17,08%WA7,18%WA5,58%MD15,99%HI11,40%PA2,32%13 - 39IL12,88%KY1,46%MD6,07%CT18,44%AL47.13%MD30,94%
14 - 38MI16,44%NJ6,68%MI5,13%DE15,25%MO10,15%MD2,91%14 - 38WA12,97%SC1,53%LA5,78%IL18,52%PA3,57%PA30,22%
15 - 37OR16,35%OR4,16%ME5,11%WV14,75%OR9,95%VT3,52%15 - 37CA16,25%NC2,12%DE5,41%PA19,98%WA2,11%KY28,36%
16 - 36NJ15,53%MN3,48%PA4,17%MI13,21%PA9,02%CA3,57%16 - 36TN16,27%DE2,33%FL5,28%MT20,08%MD1,64%MO28,10%
17 - 35NM15,13%MI3,42%MN2,40%CA12,89%NM8,56%MO3,98%17 - 35VT17,11%NY2,67%NY4,43%DE20,41%TX1,27%MN27,76%
18 - 34WI13,90%PA2,50%OR0,44%WA12,54%ME8,33%NM4,96%18 - 34OH18,76%ME3,36%MO3,63%OH21,56%AR7.64%OR27,75%
19 - 33NV12,49%NH1,37%IA0,31%LA12,07%DE8,20%CT5,10%19 - 33MI18,99%WI4,72%TX3,17%ME22,98%MO1,13%NH27,28%
20 - 32PA10,31%WI0,38%WI0,22%IA10,34%MI7,40%MT5,87%20 - 32DE19,85%LA5,45%PA2,66%AK23,51%NJ2,13%TX26,82%
21 - 31MN10,24%IA0,67%NM0,06%WI10,33%CT6,43%SD6,34%21 - 31MO20,05%VT5,96%HI2,53%MD23,90%OH2,28%OH25,89%

Links




Helpful Info LinksHelpful Election Links
MD WIKIMD county-by-county EXCEL spreadsheet 
MD Census InformationComplete MD electoral raw data (Presidential)
MD Census Profile mapMD VR - current
MD Population 2008: 5,633,597MD elections - current
MD Population Density: 22.5 persons per sq Km.MD elections - past
Electoral Vote Density: 563,360 persons per EV.---



MD Electoral Development (electors through history):  8 (1789), 10 (1792-1800), 11 (1804-1828), 10 (1832-1840), 8 (1844-1860), 7 (1864-1868), 8 (1872-1948), 9 (1952-1960), 10 EV (1964-present)




Summary


Maryland is the 7th most liberal state and the 45th most conservative state, with a Democratic winning margin of +25.44% and having voted 18.18% more Democratic than the national margin in 2008. 


Maryland was the 8th most liberal state and the 44th most conservative state in 2004, with a Democratic winning margin of +12.98% and having voted 15.44% more Democratic than the national margin in that year.


Maryland was the 7th most liberal state and the 45th most conservative state in 2000, with a Democratic winning margin of +16.39% and having voted 15.84% more Democratic than the national margin in that year.

From 1904-2008, MD went for the GOP 11 times, for the DEMS 16 times.
Since 1948 MD went for the GOP times, for the DEMS 10 times.


Maryland, one of the 13 founding colonies, was as of the Civil War a mostly Democratic state, having gone only for Abraham Lincoln (R) in 1864 and for William McKinley (R) both times. It is interesting to note that in the so-called „Gilded Age“ of the 1880s, Maryland went for Democratic candidates (especially Cleveland) with ever-larger margins, not representative of the national norm.

In a state election VERY reminiscent of the Bush-Gore Florida race in 2000, Teddy Roosevelt won Maryland by just 51 votes (+0.02%) in 1904. In 1908, Taft did hardly better: he carried MD with just +0.25%. But there was an even closer „squeaker“ election in MD, the closest in all of US history: in 1832, Henry Clay won MD with just 4 votes (+0.0104%). This statistic is usually forgotten as the Presidential election was before the entrance of the GOP onto the national stage in 1856.

In the 20th century, Maryland has been a somewhat more mixed state but with a statistical lean toward the Democratic party. It went both times for Eisenhower but only for the re-elections of Nixon and Reagan. Democrat Wilson carried MD twice. FDR carried it four times, but Truman lost it to Dewey. Carter and Clinton both carried it both times. Kennedy, Johnson and Humphrey carried MD. Since 1992, Maryland has voted reliably Democratic, and with generally increasing margins.

Obama's +25.44% margin from 2008 was more than double that of Kerry's margin from 2004 and the partisan value (State Percentage Margin over the National Percentage Margin) for MD has gone from single digits in the 1990s to double digits in the upper-teens in the last 3 cycles. Obama's winning percentage in Maryland was smaller than LBJ's from 1964 (+30.94%), but larger than three of FDR's four elections.2008 was the fourth largest Democratic landslide in this state, after 1868, 1964 and 1936 and is larger than any Republican landslide ever in the history of the state.


An interesting side-note: the two closest elections ever in the history of MD (mentioned above) are back to back: 1904 and 1908. Only one other state in the Union has also experienced this phenomenon, almost exactly 100 years later: WI, in 2000 and 2004. 


 


MD - Superlatives
YEAR
Candidate
Winning %
% Margin
GOP
1972
Nixon
61.26%
+23.90%
DEM
1868
Seymour
67.20%
+34.40%
IND
1912
Roosevelt, T.
24.91%
highest Ind showing
---------------------




All-time “squeaker”
1904
Roosevelt, T.
48.83%
+0.02%

1832
Clay, H.
50.0052%
+0.0104% - 4 votes!


Note: Henry Clay is marked in "green", but he was the standard bearer for the "National Republican Party" in 1832, a forerunner of today's GOP before the permutations of his party into the Whig Party in the 1840s and 24 years before the GOP officially entered the stage as a national party. 



In Maryland, the Governor, Lt. Governor, both Senators and 6 of 8 US Representatives are all Democrats. The other 2 US Representatives are Republicans. In the Maryland General Assembly, both houses have a Democratic hypermajority.

Facit: Maryland is a "firewall" Democratic state.

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