27 November 2011

Rank 6 / 46: Massachusetts

MASSACHUSETTS


Results of the last 6 presidential cycles:

Year
Rank
Winning %
% Margin
Part. Value
Swing“
National Swing
Trend
2008
06 / 46
61.80%
+25.81%
+18.55%
+0.65%
+9.72%
+9.07
2004
02 / 50
61.94%
+25.16%
+27.62%
-2.14%
+2.98%
+0.84
2000
03 / 49
59.80%
+27.30%
+26.78%
-6.09%
+8.00%
+1.91
1996
02 / 50
61.47%
+33.39%
+24.87%
+14.87%
+2.96%
+11.91
1992
02 / 50
47.54%
+18.52%
+12.96%
+10.67%
+13.29%
+2.62
1988
05 / 47
52.23%
+7.85%
+15.58%
+10.64%
-10.49%
+0.15


MA county-by-county EXCEL spreadsheet (raw totals for 2008 and 2004, margins, swings, % of state PV, county growth rate)

Massachusetts margin average, 1988-2008 (6 cycles): DEM +23.00%



The partisan rankings for Rankings 4 and 6 (Rhode Island and Massachusetts) from 2008 backwards in history to 1964 in Table-format(highlighted in yellow for RI , green for MA):



Rank2008Margin '082004Margin - 042000Margin '001996Margin '961992Margin '921988Margin '88Rank1984Margin '841980Margin '801976Margin '761972Margin '721968Margin '681964Margin '64
01 – 51DC85,92%DC79,84%DC76,20%DC75,85%DC75,55%DC68,34%01 – 51DC71,66%DC61,49%DC65,12%DC56,54%DC63,64%DC71,00%
02 – 50HI45,26%MA25,16%RI29,08%MA33,39%MA18,52%RI11,71%02 – 50MN0,18%GA14,81%GA33,78%MA8,97%RI32,25%RI61,74%
03 – 49VT37,01%RI20,75%MA27,30%RI32,89%RI18,02%IA10,22%03 – 49MA2,79%RI10,47%AR30,01%MN5,51%MA30,12%HI57,52%
04 – 48RI27,81%VT20,14%NY24,98%NY28,86%AR17,72%HI9,52%04 – 48RI3,65%WV4,51%WV16,14%RI6,19%HI21,12%MA52,74%
05 – 47NY26,86%NY18,29%HI18,33%HI25,29%NY15,85%MA7,85%05 – 47MD5,49%MN3,94%MA15,67%SD8,63%MN12,53%ME37,68%
06 – 46MA25,81%MD12,98%CT17,47%VT22,26%VT15,70%MN7,02%06 – 46PA7,35%MD2,96%AL13,11%WI9,67%ME12,23%NY37,25%
07 – 45MD25,44%CT10,37%MD16,39%ME20,86%IL14,24%WV4,74%07 – 45IA7,39%HI1,90%SC13,04%OR10,12%MS40.44%WV35,87%
08 – 44IL25,11%IL10,34%NJ15,83%CT18,14%MD14,18%OR4,67%08 – 44NY8,01%MA0,15%TN13,00%CA13,46%WV8,82%CT35,72%



Links




Helpful Info Links Helpful Election Links
MA county-by-county EXCEL spreadsheet
MA VR - current
MA Population 2008: 6,497,967 MA VR - archives
MA Population Density: 320.0 persons per sq Km.
MA elections - (2000-2012)
Electoral Vote Density: 541,197 persons per EV. ---



Electoral Development (electors through history): 
10 (1789), 16 (1792-1800), 19 (1804-1808), 22 (1812-1816), 15 (1820-1828), 14 (1832-1840) 12 (1844-1848), 13 (1852-1860), 12 (1864-1868), 13 (1872-1880), 14 (1884-1888), 15 (1892-1900) 16 (1904-1908), 18 (1912-1928), 17(1932-1940), 16 (1944-1960), 14 (1964-1980), 13 (1984-1988), 12 (1992-2008), 11 EV (2012- ).




SUMMARY

Massachusetts is the 6th most liberal state and the 46th most conservative state, with a Democratic winning margin of +25.81% and having voted 18.55% more Democratic than the national margin in 2008. 

Massachusetts was the 2th most liberal state and the 50th most conservative state in 2004, with a Democratic winning margin of +25.16% and having voted 27.62% more Democratic than the national margin in that year.

Massachusetts was the 3rd most liberal state and the 49th most conservative state in 200, with a Democratic winning margin of +27.30% and having voted 26.78% more Democratic than the national margin in that year.



From 1904-2008, MA went for the GOP 9 times, for the DEMS 18 times. (1:2 ratio)
Since 1948 MA went for the GOP 
4 times, for the DEMS 12 times. (1:3 ratio)


From 1856-1924, MA was a very Republican state, having gone 17 out of 18 cycles for the GOP. In 1928, things changed in MA. 1928 was the election cycle in which the Democratic candidate, Al Smith, was the first Roman Catholic to be nominated for President. Much of New England was and still is very Catholic. Al Smith flipped both MA and RI in that cycle, but not NY. Franklin Delano Roosevelt carried Masachusetts all four times. Harry Truman retained MA for the Democrats in 1948 and for the first time in MA history, a Democratic candidate won this state 
with a double-digit margin

Massachusetts liked Ike in the 1950s, but there was no love at all for Republican Richard Nixon, who lost the state in 1960 to favorite son John Kennedy (+20.67%), to Hubert Humphrey in 1968 (+30.12%) and to George McGovern in 1972 (+8.97%), Massachusetts (with DC) was the only state in the Union to resist the Nixon landslide of 1972. This makes Massachusetts the only state in the Union to vote AGAINST Nixon all three times. Of course, the state superlative margin of all time is LBJ's record setting election of 1964: LBJ +52.74%, a winning 76.19% and a raw vote margin of 1.2 million votes. Jimmy Carter won Massachusetts comfortably in 1976 but lost it to Ronald Reagan in a three-way race against John Anderson in 1980 (Reagan +0.15%). Reagan retained the state in the GOP column in 1984 with a +2.79% margin. Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis won his home state of Massachusetts in 1988 and since then, MA has been a very reliable part of the Democratic electoral column.

Statistically, the results from MA for 2004 and 2008 are almost identical to each other. John Kerry won his home state by +25.16%, Obama won MA by +25.81%, making a partisan shift of +0.65 for the Democrats, 2008 over 2004. In terms of electoral stability in 2008 over 2004, the most stable state for each side was MA for the Democrats and OK for the Republicans.

Though Massachusetts is currently Rank 6 in the partisan rankings, based on it's performance in 2008, most of the time, MA has been between Ranks 2 and 4, alternating with RI.

Massachusetts 
has become an absolutely essential part of the electoral column for a Democratic victory. A Republican can win the White House without Massachusetts. A Democrat cannot. Since FDR, every Democratic candidate who won the White House also won Massachusetts.

MA - Superlatives YEAR Candidate Winning % % Margin
GOP
1896
McKinley
69.47%
+43.15%
DEM
1964
Johnson
76.19%
+52.74%
IND
1912
Roosevelt, T.
29.14%
highest Ind showing
---------------------



All-time “squeaker”
1980
Reagan
41.90%
+0.15%

In Massachusetts, the Governor, Lt. Governor, 1 Senators and all 10 US Representatives are Democrats. The lone Republican is Senator Scott Brown, who is likely to face a major challenge from Elzabeth Warren in 2012. In the Massachusetts General Court, the Democrats have massive hypermajorities in both Houses.

Facit: Massachusetts is a "firewall" Democratic state.

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